Wednesday, September 30, 2020
Tuesday, September 29, 2020
Well, well, well, guess who doesn't have up on his page the customary debate poll he always puts up?
Drudge.
That would just give it away now.
Sunday, September 27, 2020
Things to remember from the week that was, Sep 19-26, 2020, and none of it is about COVID-19
Democrat Senator Chucky Schumer tweeted on Feb 22, 2016: Attn GOP: Senate has confirmed 17 #SCOTUS justices in presidential election years. #DoYourJob.
But now that they're about to do just that, he's saying Ruth Bader Ginsburg "must be turning over in her grave up in heaven". RBG is actually on ice right now, until her burial this week at Arlington. The Senate Minority Leader, like a lot of Democrats, has problems with spatial, temporal, dimensional and proportional imagination, not to mention the American idiom.
Democrat Senator Harry Reid tweeted on Nov 21, 2013: Thanks to all of you who encouraged me to consider filibuster reform. It had to be done.
In 2013, Reid was then asked if he was worried the GOP could change the filibuster on #SCOTUS, too. His response: "Let 'em do it".
So Mitch McConnell did, sooner than Reid was imagining.
The cannibal Reza Aslan was so hungry for human BBQ he called for the whole thing to be burned down if the GOP replaced RBG, who died at home and "lied in state" according to NBC News. That's one way of putting it. Democrats threatened riots if they didn't get their way, like that was something new.
Like the George Floyd protests which were mostly peaceful, except for the $1-$2 billion in damages caused so far, most of the fires out west recently have been wild except for at least four major ones caused by 13 people arrested for arson.
Ann Coulter tweeted that Amy Coney Barrett would be a "disastrous pick" for the Supreme Court because Barrett has stated that her Catholicism would require her to recuse herself on e.g. immigration and death penalty cases. Yes, what are we paying you for? Not to recuse yourself but actually to issue opinions. Plus it would set a terrible precedent for an appointee to add to the prohibition on religious tests such a prohibition of religion itself from the public square, as if religion has no legitimate contribution to make to our public life.
This must come as quite a shock to the Catholic integralists of the "right" who seek an explicit Catholic hegemony over the Americas, because Amy is not their man, so to speak. It's probably more disappointing to such Catholics than to the millions of US Protestants who still don't have one justice on the court, completely dominated by Catholics and Jews as it is, even though Protestants still constitute the largest, though splintered, Christian group in America.
Ann Coulter also said Trump would lose if he picked Amy Coney Barrett to fill the vacancy of RBG. I say, only if they let her talk in public. The woman's a bot. And a Karenbot to boot. I don't think she's going drinking with Brett Kavanaugh.
The New York Times is playing fast and loose with its own so-called 1619 Project, stealth-editing-out its claims that the "true founding" of America was in 1619, not 1776, after taking sustained in-coming from critics about it.
Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina is in re-election trouble according to the polling. The guy flaps his gums about many things and so gets caught flipping and flopping quite a bit, which apparently is wearing thin down there.
Democrats like David Axelrod are basing many of their arguments for and against everything these days on what has the "popular vote" and what doesn't, saying things which don't have the popular vote create a tyranny of the minority.
In a republic like America the popular vote has always been subsidiary in order to prevent the tyranny of the majority. Representation in a republic means that you can have a voice to persuade, not a guarantee that you can get your way and impose. But rather than argue the principle head on, of course, they'd rather assert the claim that the majority wants this, the majority hates that, is what counts, as if all the republican institutions and the republican framework itself have no legitimacy any longer, almost as if they don't even exist. This is the ideological habit of mind in action: Denial of reality.
The reality is Trump won in 2016. His position in the Senate strengthened in 2018 and the impeachment trial failed in 2020, which means the voters have already expressed their assent to the president's prerogative to make judicial appointments and to Republicans' Senate role in approving or disapproving of those appointments.
The filibuster issue, however, is a fraught matter.
Some are saying about the issue of filling the current Supreme Court vacancy that the Court's legitimacy is on the line. Many of us already thought the Court lost its legitimacy in 1973 in Roe v Wade. We thought that again in 2003 in Lawrence v Texas. We thought that again in 2012 in National Federation of Independent Business v. Sebelius. We thought that again in 2013 in United States v Windsor. We thought that again in 2015 in Obergefell v Hodges. We don't think that in 2020 per se, but I mean, look at the thing. It's a mess. Liberals are only upset because for the first time in decades their ability to impose their undemocratic will on the American people is in jeopardy.
Meanwhile it's good to remember in the first place that RBG was appointed to the Supreme Court by a president who received just 43% of the popular vote. Talk about a tyranny of the minority, eh David Assholerod?
Speaking of minorities, RBG had just one black clerk in all those years from 1993-2020. A Jew practicing tokenism? I'm shocked. She was also a eugenicist, like the Nazis: "at the time Roe was decided, there was concern about population growth and particularly growth in populations that we don’t want to have too many of."
Oh really?
In 2014 RBG told Reuters she wasn't going to retire because she didn't trust Obama to appoint a true liberal like herself to replace her, but she thought rather that he would appoint a compromise candidate. RBG must have reckoned in 2014 that Hillary would win in 2016, allowing her to retire safely knowing HRC would appoint another true liberal. Says a lot about RBG, but also about Obama, who by the end of 2009 had already alienated the far left. Yet by 2016 the far left supported Bernie, not Hillary.
And they say the Republicans are cracking up. The Democrats haven't finished cracking up.
We learned this last week that in April the USPS and HHS were prepared to distribute 650 million face masks to Americans but that never happened because the Trump administration didn't want to cause a panic. Like we hadn't panicked already.
Senator Chuck Grassley used Twitter to identify the numbers on a tagged pidgin he found dead on his farm. Thank you, Chuck.
Video of RBG warning against court-packing emerged, but you probably won't see that.
As recently as July Ann Coulter was hashtagging #DefeatMcConnell in support of his Democrat challenger in Kentucky. In September she was appealing to McConnell to talk up someone other than Amy Coney Barrett to Trump.
Well make up your mind, lady.
In a September Quinnipiac poll McConnell has a comfortable 12 point lead and appears headed to another term in the Senate representing the Bluegrass State. They should change that to Badass State, in honor of Cocaine Mitch.
McConnell did join Republicans in voting 96-3 to confirm RBG in 1993.
Sad!
In Minneapolis a charter amendment to defund the police failed to get on the ballot. Crime is up dramatically in the wake of the riots . . . because police are afraid they'll be prosecuted for doing their jobs. Maybe next year the reality will sink in: George Floyd wasn't "killed by the police". He was killed by an overdose of illegal drugs he took.
In Seattle the Seattle Times is lying about why 126 businesses have closed downtown. The paper says it's due to COVID when it's really due to the rioters. Looted businesses are boarded up everywhere as law and order has broken down and riff raff own the streets. Who would shop there now?
"Fiery but mostly peaceful protests" has been trending but will be replaced soon by "no evidence of meaningful fraud" in the fall elections. Analysis that's a little bit pregnant from the Mother of Idiots, the media.
After ~17 weeks of $600 federal unemployment checks, a Trump executive order has resulted in follow-up checks for $300 for six weeks. Democrats filibustered a Republican relief bill for the unemployed in the Senate which would have made that superfluous. Another opportunity to make Trump appear small, squandered.
The stock market in the 20 years since the August 2000 peak has underperformed the previous 20 years by almost 68%, so No, this is not a bull market.
Joe Biden said 200 million have died from COVID so far, which makes it a good thing hundreds of millions of Americans in 57 states have Obamacare now. In 1991 he said that he'd probably be dead by 2020. Just pointing out that there's still time . . .
Not to be outdone, Kamala Harris on Friday night said 2Pac is the best rapper alive. This is the second time she's pandered on 2Pac, who was shot and killed in 1996.
Glenn Beck wants 1 billion Americans. We want fewer Glenn Becks.
The Chicoms, who have over 1 billion Chinese, are imposing Xi Jinping thought on private businesses and sending warplanes to buzz Taiwan.
We learned Hunter Biden got $3.5 million from a Putin stooge, but it's still "Trump-Russia!" 24/7.
Robert Curry pointed out that John Locke 'had made what philosophers call a “category mistake.” Property is alienable; unalienable rights are not property'. So among the unalienable rights, life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness are not to be thought of as property of which you can be deprived.
We were reminded that in late August Hillary urged Biden not to accept the election result under any circumstances. Well, if Trump wins and stays in the White House, Trump won't be wrong, but Hillary already is.
An article attempting to tout the benefits of the 2017 tax bill for the middle class contained this unfortunate line: "The average tax liability of millionaires was reduced by roughly $54,000 between 2017 and 2018", which way overtops the 2018 median wage of $32,838.05, meaning your average millionaire saved a minimum of $21,000 more than half the country's workers make in a year.
If we're going to have a limitation on SCOTUS power by limiting the terms of Supreme Court justices, it had better include limitations on House and Senate power, too, by limiting their terms of office. This hamstringing of the judiciary is in the service of the present Legislative Tyranny, where representatives and senators keep seats warm forever. It is a devious end run aimed really at the executive, which appoints the judiciary, to further weaken it.
Think about it. In 1929 the Congress grabbed power by stopping growth of the US House and limiting it to its then 435 members. In 1947 the Congress grabbed power by limiting the president to two terms. In 2020 Congress wants to limit the term of SCOTUS justices to 18 years.
The Congress does a lot of limiting, except of itself.
We have $27 trillion in debt for crying out loud! Congress has picked our pockets, our children's pockets, and the pockets to the third and fourth generation of them that hate the government of the United States. Debt is servitude. Debt is slavery. Debt is tyranny. And that debt is the secret of the Legislative Tyranny's success.
A tyranny of 218.
Brutus tried to warn us in 1787:
[I]n reality there will be no part of the people represented, but the rich, even in that branch of the legislature, which is called the democratic. — The well born, and highest orders in life, as they term themselves, will be ignorant of the sentiments of the midling class of citizens, strangers to their ability, wants, and difficulties, and void of sympathy, and fellow feeling. This branch of the legislature will not only be an imperfect representation, but there will be no security in so small a body, against bribery, and corruption — It will consist at first, of sixty-five, and can never exceed one for every thirty thousand inhabitants; a majority of these, that is, thirty-three, are a quorum, and a majority of which, or seventeen, may pass any law — so that twenty-five men, will have the power to give away all the property of the citizens of these states — what security therefore can there be for the people, where their liberties and property are at the disposal of so few men?
It will literally be a government in the hands of the few to oppress and plunder the many. You may conclude with a great degree of certainty, that it, like all others of a similar nature, will be managed by influence and corruption, and that the period is not far distant, when this will be the case, if it should be adopted; for even now there are some among us, whose characters stand high in the public estimation, and who have had a principal agency in framing this constitution, who do not scruple to say, that this is the only practicable mode of governing a people, who think with that degree of freedom which the Americans do — this government will have in their gift a vast number of offices of great honor and emolument. The members of the legislature are not excluded from appointments; and twenty-five of them, as the case may be, being secured, any measure may be carried.
The rulers of this country must be composed of very different materials from those of any other, of which history gives us any account, if the majority of the legislature are not, before many years, entirely at the devotion of the executive — and these states will soon be under the absolute domination of one, or a few, with the fallacious appearance of being governed by men of their own election.
The more I reflect on this subject, the more firmly am I persuaded, that the representation is merely nominal — a mere burlesque; and that no security is provided against corruption and undue influence. No free people on earth, who have elected persons to legislate for them, ever reposed that confidence in so small a number. The British house of commons consists of five hundred and fifty-eight members; the number of inhabitants in Great-Britain, is computed at eight millions — this gives one member for a little more than fourteen thousand, which exceeds double the proportion this country can ever have: and yet we require a larger representation in proportion to our numbers, than Great-Britain, because this country is much more extensive, and differs more in its productions, interests, manners, and habits. The democratic branch of the legislatures of the several states in the union consists, I believe at present, of near two thousand; and this number was not thought too large for the security of liberty by the framers of our state constitutions: some of the states may have erred in this respect, but the difference between two thousand, and sixty-five, is so very great, that it will bear no comparison.
Wednesday, September 23, 2020
The polls haven't budged at all for Trump since July: He's still getting crushed by Biden and winning just ~185 Electoral College votes
These maps, one from July 15 still showing Ohio tied, and one from today, were created at Real Clear Politics simply awarding the toss-ups to whomever has the polling advantage.
The result is the same. Trump is getting crushed.
Tuesday, September 22, 2020
Monday, September 21, 2020
US COVID-19 deaths are closing in on 200k today
Here follows COVID-19 deaths per day in the USA, monthly through Saturday 9/19/20. As you can see, September to date is a lot like July:
Mar 138
Apr 1,961
May 1,330
Jun 769
Jul 851
Aug 955
Sep 825 (19 days).
If you average 850 daily new deaths, after a year you easily rack up 300k dead. That's what June to September tells us. We've got to get this number down.
Meanwhile, US COVID-19 daily new deaths fell to 213 for Sun 9/20/20 (a new low since day two of summer on 6/21) just two days before summer ends.
That summer thingy is kinda freaky:
9/20: 213
Mon 9/7 (Labor Day): 263 (revised up from 261)
7/5: 262
Sat 7/4 (Independence Day): 261
6/28: 271
6/21: 257.
The 20th anniversary of the end of the Reagan bull in August 2000 shows stock market return hasn't been just sub-bull, it's been sub-normal
Average per annum real return from the S&P 500 in the last 20 years has underperformed the 100+ years up to the beginning of the Reagan era by 36.8%.
Don't even begin to THINK return has compared with the era of the Reagan bull. This isn't a bull market, let alone a normally performing market.
Remember, this is real return, not nominal.
Sunday, September 20, 2020
Democrats are squealing like pigs over Cocaine Mitch's supposed Supreme Court hypocrisy, but there isn't any
Americans put Republicans in control of the US Senate again in 2018, with Trump in the White House, so Democrats have no one to blame but themselves for what's about to happen, and Harry Reid in particular for trashing the filibuster rule for judicial appointments.
From the story here, which explains it all:
The reason is simple, and was explained by Mitch McConnell at the time. Historically, throughout American history, when their party controls the Senate, presidents get to fill Supreme Court vacancies at any time — even in a presidential election year, even in a lameduck session after the election, even after defeat. Historically, when the opposite party controls the Senate, the Senate gets to block Supreme Court nominees sent up in a presidential election year, and hold the seat open for the winner. Both of those precedents are settled by experience as old as the republic. Republicans should not create a brand-new precedent to deviate from them.
Friday, September 18, 2020
Tuesday, September 15, 2020
Given urban heat island distortions of +1 to +7 degrees F, average temperature rise of less than 0.3 degrees F above the mean since 1898 in Grand Rapids, MI is suspect
Given urban heat island distortions of +1 to +7 degrees F, average temperature rise of less than 0.3 degrees F above the mean since 1898 in Grand Rapids, MI is suspect (image D).
US EPA Heat Islands page:
"A review of research studies and data found that in the United States, the heat island effect results in daytime temperatures in urban areas about 1–7°F higher than temperatures in outlying areas and nighttime temperatures about 2–5°F higher. Humid regions (primarily in the eastern United States) and cities with larger and denser populations experience the greatest temperature differences. Research predicts that the heat island effect will strengthen in the future as the structure, spatial extent, and population density of urban areas change and grow".
The US Historical Climatology Network station in Grand Rapids, Michigan, looks increasingly compromised by urban heat island effects. It is located at the Gerald R. Ford International Airport (image A), where the main 8,500 foot runway did not become operational until 2001 and where 2 million passengers were not served for the first time until 2004.
The weather station is located in the northwest corner of the 3,000 plus acre airport grounds at 4899 Tim Dougherty Dr, Grand Rapids, MI 49512 (image B). One can see it is now surrounded by industrial development to the north and west, the airport to the south and east, and a busy county road commission facility right east of the measurement station, which is accessed by a little walkway leading from the National Weather Service building (image C).
The county population has doubled in the last sixty years.
One can observe from the history of maximum temperature at the station (image E) that the trend is clearly lower by nearly 1.5 degrees F from the mean maximum over the whole period. The trend for minimum temperature is even lower, by over 2.0 degrees F from the mean (image F).
Click any image to enlarge.
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Sunday, September 13, 2020
The Sweden apologists are still ridiculous: Sweden deaths per million of population might as well be Mexico
Hey, let's hear it for Moldova, huh?
US COVID-19 deaths update through 9/12/20
COVID-19 deaths per day in the entire USA, monthly through 9/12/20:
Mar 138
Apr 1,961
May 1,330
Jun 769
Jul 851
Aug 955
Sep 839 (12 days).
Assuming the current September rate per day through the end of September will mean ~208.6k dead by October 1. Assuming it through the end of the year puts us at ~285k dead by the end of the year.
Consider California as a proxy for the death distribution: 7% of deaths there are aged 0-49, 93% are aged 50+. 19% of deaths are aged 50-64, 74% are 65 or older.
In the 25 worst states for average daily new deaths since the beginning of the pandemic, the week ended 9/12 witnessed 877/day, which is a new low since I began tracking this on July 11, two months ago:
7/11 917
7/18 907
7/25 899
8/1 906
8/8 905
8/15 906
8/22 905
8/29 899
9/5 890
9/12 877.
In the 15 worst states for deaths measured this way, identified in June, the daily average is down 66 over the last two months. In the 10 second tier states for deaths, however, the average is up 26 per day.
One state which has not been in either list is Tennessee, which epitomizes the above noted change in the course of the pandemic. Tennessee started to become a data problem in August, competing with second tier states Missouri and Washington with nine average daily new deaths per day since the beginning of the pandemic.
Now Tennessee is up to eleven as of 9/12/20 whereas Missouri has been flat at nine since the beginning of July and Washington ticked up from eight to nine at the end of July and has been flat ever since. Here's the monthly COVID-19 deaths per day in Tennessee, which shows how August really piled up the numbers there:
Mar 0.41
Apr 6.23
May 5.16
Jun 7.90
Jul 14.51
Aug 21.93
Sep 26.08 (12 days).
Lest we get lost in the weeds, however, the overall picture for the US remains positive with a fourth consecutive week of decline in the compound daily growth rate of deaths measured weekly. It would be best if the deaths just stopped, but at least the growth rate continues to come down . . . for now.
Thursday, September 10, 2020
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