COVID-19 deaths per day in the entire USA, monthly through 9/12/20:
Mar 138
Apr 1,961
May 1,330
Jun 769
Jul 851
Aug 955
Sep 839 (12 days).
Assuming the current September rate per day through the end of September will mean ~208.6k dead by October 1. Assuming it through the end of the year puts us at ~285k dead by the end of the year.
Consider California as a proxy for the death distribution: 7% of deaths there are aged 0-49, 93% are aged 50+. 19% of deaths are aged 50-64, 74% are 65 or older.
In the 25 worst states for average daily new deaths since the beginning of the pandemic, the week ended 9/12 witnessed 877/day, which is a new low since I began tracking this on July 11, two months ago:
7/11 917
7/18 907
7/25 899
8/1 906
8/8 905
8/15 906
8/22 905
8/29 899
9/5 890
9/12 877.
In the 15 worst states for deaths measured this way, identified in June, the daily average is down 66 over the last two months. In the 10 second tier states for deaths, however, the average is up 26 per day.
One state which has not been in either list is Tennessee, which epitomizes the above noted change in the course of the pandemic. Tennessee started to become a data problem in August, competing with second tier states Missouri and Washington with nine average daily new deaths per day since the beginning of the pandemic.
Now Tennessee is up to eleven as of 9/12/20 whereas Missouri has been flat at nine since the beginning of July and Washington ticked up from eight to nine at the end of July and has been flat ever since. Here's the monthly COVID-19 deaths per day in Tennessee, which shows how August really piled up the numbers there:
Mar 0.41
Apr 6.23
May 5.16
Jun 7.90
Jul 14.51
Aug 21.93
Sep 26.08 (12 days).
Lest we get lost in the weeds, however, the overall picture for the US remains positive with a fourth consecutive week of decline in the compound daily growth rate of deaths measured weekly. It would be best if the deaths just stopped, but at least the growth rate continues to come down . . . for now.
