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Monday, July 8, 2019
Good Lord, Christian Nancy French, wife of David, is a small sea of confusion
French breakfast, or English?
She clearly does not understand C.S. Lewis, but no matter. The Christians don't read WaPo anyway.
The term “nationalism” carries with it ominous echoes of blood and soil, unsuitable for a nation composed of people from many different ethnicities and many different soils. ... As C.S. Lewis wrote in The Four Loves, patriotism asks “only to be let alone. It becomes militant only to protect what it loves. In any mind that has a pennyworth of imagination it produces a good attitude towards foreigners. How can I love my home without coming to realise that other men, no less rightly, love theirs? Once you have realised that Frenchmen like cafe complet just as we like bacon and eggs — why good luck to them and let them have it. The last thing we want is to make everywhere else just like our own home. It would not be home unless it were different.” ... This Sunday, it is great for Christians to show gratitude for a country that respects our liberty, but we should also extend incredible love and courtesy to people who differ from us.
Yeah, in their own countries. Yes, leave us alone! Don't come here and try to make this like your old home. If you come here you adopt our ways, our loves, our values. Otherwise, it's not really your home. Get out! This is our home. We speak English, honor the Christian God, revere the original constitution and the English common law, require self-sufficiency and self-restraint, reward individual merit, punish individual misconduct, and practice equality before the law (well, unless you're a Democrat).
She literally says in closing she's in the nation, but not of it.
No kidding.
Sunday, July 7, 2019
Peter Beinart September 2017 said mainstream left supported Antifa, now not so much
You can tell we're getting closer to the election when what the left said was definitely the case in 2017 is no longer the case in 2019, and we're just making it up.
The continuing crisis of housing bubble-itis
Housing prices in 2017 are overvalued north of 40%. The index commensurate with the pre-1993 period should be about 142 but is instead 203.
Adam Tooze notes US house prices relative to the rest of the world are low but still run ahead of Italy and Germany.
What would happen if 44 million German Americans and 17 million Italian Americans went back home looking for a bargain?
Saturday, July 6, 2019
Headline payrolls in 2019 may be overstating the real numbers by more than 25%
Months from now, the Establishment Survey will undergo its annual retrospective benchmark revision, based almost entirely on the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages conducted by the Labor Department. ...
The latest QCEW data are available through 2018, but note how much worse the 2018 QCEW data look than the Establishment Survey data, even though the two appear fairly similar in previous years, for which the latter has already undergone the requisite revisions. The Establishment Survey’s nonfarm jobs figures will clearly be revised down as the QCEW data show job growth averaging only 177,000 a month in 2018. That means the Establishment Survey may be overstating the real numbers by more than 25%.
Friday, July 5, 2019
Decrepit Newsweek Magazine skewers Border Patrol for pretending to show detention center while repeatedly showcasing French tanks from Bastille Day in Paris as if from a US July 4th parade
If you look closely you can see Mr & Mrs Trump and Mr and Mrs Macron applauding in the viewing area. Clearly the intent is to imply this is a #4thofJuly parade when it isn't.
There is no jobs boom but you'd never know it from the headlines
Are all these stories written by twenty-somethings? They are an offense to anyone with a knowledge of history:
"US adds robust 224,000 jobs in June" -- ABC
"Strong hiring in June: 224,000 new jobs, 3.7% unemployment" -- CBS
"Big month for jobs, big headache for Fed Chair Powell" -- NBC
"U.S. adds 224,000 jobs as hiring rebounds in June, calming worries about the economy" -- MarketWatch
"US labour market booms in June" -- BBC
"The US labor market rebounds in June, adding far more jobs than expected" -- Business Insider
"Jobs report smashes expectations" -- AOL
"Labor market comes roaring back as jobs see 'nice pop', economists say" -- MarketWatch
Meanwhile, the facts.
Trump has yet to put numbers on the board which distinguish payrolls as robust, strong, big, calming, booming, rebounding, smashing or roaring.
For roaring you have to look back to Reagan and Clinton. Trump is not in their league. So far he's not even as good as Obama for putting up big months (granted, over eight years), and is merely one term president Bush 41-league, the best comparison for comparable time in office. It ain't over 'til it's over, but 30 months in Trump has just two big months to his name, that's it, and the clock is ticking on the longest, but nowhere near best, economic expansion in history.
On a net population-adjusted basis there are as of 2018 5.2 million more Americans 16 to 64 years of age not in the labor force who used to be in it since low levels reached for respective age groups in 1989, 1995 and 1997, including one million fewer not in labor force age 25-54 since 1989. There are 2.8 million more 16-24 not in labor force in 2018 than in 1995 on a population adjusted basis, and 3.4 million more age 55-64 since 1997.
5.2 million people actually sitting on the sidelines added to payrolls in a real jobs boom would boost current monthly levels by 108,333 on an average basis over 4 years, in other words, well above 300,000 monthly.
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