Wednesday, October 24, 2018
Kavanaugh effect evaporates in Rasmussen generic congressional poll, Democrats take 3-point advantage
Democrat 47%
Republican 44%
Other 3%
Undecided 6%
Reported here:
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone and online survey finds that 47% of Likely U.S. Voters would choose the Democratic candidate if the elections for Congress were held today. Forty-four percent (44%) would opt for the Republican. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate, and six percent (6%) are undecided.
False flag operations: "Potential" bombs sent to Hillary and Obama after one allegedly sent to Soros yesterday
Right wing violence, right on time for the elections after nearly two years of violence from the left!
Anthony Weiner probably sent them from the penitentiary in exchange for early release.
The Chicoms are the new Nazis and it's high time experts stopped using euphemisms for it like "authoritarian capitalism"
Like Brahma Chellaney, here:
China still gets a free pass on human-rights abuses, from holding up to a million Muslims from Xinjiang province in internment camps to effectively kidnapping Interpol President Meng Hongwei. And, despite his assertions that the Obama administration's response to China’s activities in the South China Sea was “impotent,” Trump has done little to counter Chinese expansionism. ...
China is already challenging the US for technological and geopolitical primacy, and flaunting its authoritarian capitalism as an alternative to democracy. Communism couldn’t pose a credible challenge to liberal democracy, but authoritarian capitalism might. In that sense, China’s model represents the first major challenge to liberal democracy since the rise of Nazism.
MN-1 moves into Toss-up, Democrat polls +2
That makes the math 218-212-5, with a majority for the Democrats, based on the latest poll in the toss-up races.
Latest polling tips NM-2 Republican +1, taking away Democrats' 218 majority
The math this morning is now Democrats 217, Republicans 213, Tied 5 based on the latest poll in each toss-up race for the US House.
Tuesday, October 23, 2018
US House Election Snapshot for Tuesday 10/23/18: Democrats win control with 218
Real Clear Politics has the race at 205 Democrat to 200 Republican with 30 toss-ups.
Based on the latest polling date in each of the toss-ups, Democrats pick-up 13 and Republicans pick up 12 with 5 more races officially tied.
Democrats win control 218-212-5.
14 contests have severely out-of-date polling, however, 13 from September and 1 from August. 16 contests have the latest poll taken sometime in October.
Republicans own the October polling: Republican 8, Democrat 4, Tied 4. The average lead for Republicans is +3.375 and for Democrats is +4.25.
Democrats own the out-of-date polling, throwing cold water on their projected win: Democrat 9, Republican 4, Tied 1.
The average lead in Democrat polling overall is +3.3 and in Republican is +2.75.
Bradley Manning finally goes all the way and gets a chopadickoffamy as Trump sides with chromosomes
The Trump administration is moving forward with efforts to define gender on the basis of biological sex, reversing decisions under the Obama administration that essentially allowed individuals to choose their own sex for federal government purposes. A new memo from the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services argues federal agencies need a definition of sex and gender that is defined “on a biological basis that is clear, grounded in science, objective and administrable.”
The changes are to take place under Title IX section of a 1972 law that bars sex-based discrimination in federally funded education institutions, but could have far broader implications, in areas such as single sex settings and set aside programs. ...
The fact of the matter is that while academics and activists have been running around willy nilly changing the definition of sex and inventing 72 (at least) new pronouns, none of this has been rooted in any kind of confirmable science. It is farcical to think that the state can somehow keep up with such changes or pursue policies regarding sex without a workable and consistent definition.
Piers Morgan: Trump is kicking Democrats' ass
Piers Morgan, here:
According to the NBC/Wall Street Journal poll, Trump is now at 47% approval, compared to Obama’s 45% two weeks before the midterm elections in 2010. ...
And I see a President who’s growing stronger by the day.
Trump’s become a political Godzilla, crushing everyone who dares challenge him and bulldozing his way through an agenda that is beginning to pay real dividends.
In less than two years, Trump’s got two nominees onto the Supreme Court, entrenching a Conservative majority.
He’s slashed taxes, and regulations – sparking a boom in the US economy that shows no sign of stopping, a surge in jobs and record low unemployment.
Trump’s forged a peaceful dialogue with North Korea, launched a trade war with China that many think is long overdue, withdrawn from the obviously flawed Iran nuclear deal and Trans-Pacific Partnership, forced Mexico and Canada to update NAFTA, bullied NATO countries into paying their bills, and bombed ISIS out of Iraq and Syria.
He’s also clamped down hard on illegal immigration.
As I write this, a ‘caravan’ of more than 7,000 Central American migrants – most of them from Honduras - is moving towards the Southern border.
They intend trying to enter the United States illegally.
It’s hard to think of a more powerful image to vindicate Trump’s much criticized demand for a new ‘Wall’, isn’t it?
Monday, October 22, 2018
Politico co-founder and so-called journalist John Harris should suspend and fire himself
From the story here:
Both VandeHei and Harris are familiar with how severe the repercussions for opinionated tweets can be. In 2012, when they were running Politico together, the organization suspended and then fired a reporter because of remarks he had made on television and Twitter, including one remark suggesting that Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney was only comfortable around white people.
In the memo announcing the journalist's suspension, Harris and VandeHei reminded staff that all journalists had a "clear and inflexible responsibility to cover politics fairly and free of partisan bias."
Laugh of the Day: Christian Science Monitor suggests "alien invasion" could unite Americans, or "climate change"
Talk about being out of touch.
The latest invasion is on the way from Honduras as we speak and the last thing I expect to see is Democrats and Republicans unite to stop it.
Instead Democrats intend to welcome the invasion with open arms.
Here:
The parties could also unite to solve an overarching national goal. The problem here is, what? Absent an alien invasion requiring Americans to pull together, what goal would suffice? Some experts suggest climate change, but that would require Republicans to change position and favor more active intervention on the issue.
Sunday, October 21, 2018
Laugh of the Day: Axios/Politico co-founder complains reporters always seem to prove they are leftists on social media, should hide it to deceive!
Jim VandeHei.
Here:
Media: News organizations should ban their reporters from doing anything on social media — especially Twitter — beyond sharing stories. Snark, jokes and blatant opinion are showing your hand, and it always seems to be the left one. This makes it impossible to win back the skeptics.
Democrats in this cycle are clearly lacking the wave leadership like Rahm Emanuel once provided in 2006
Case in point, TX-23, discussed here at length by The Other McCain:
The Republican incumbent there scarcely fits the stereotype of a right-winger. Will Hurd is the only black member of the Texas GOP congressional delegation, a former CIA officer who has held the seat since 2014. The largely rural district, which stretches all the way from the suburbs of San Antonio in the east to El Paso in the west, is majority Hispanic and the congressional seat has changed hands five times between Republicans and Democrats since the 1990s. Hurd won re-election two years ago by a margin of barely 3,000 votes and was obviously a vulnerable target in this year’s midterms, but Democrats appear to have fumbled away their chance of winning in TX23 by nominating a pro-abortion Filipina lesbian as their candidate.
Gina Ortiz Jones was recruited into this campaign by Democrats at a time when feminist rage over Trump’s 2016 election was a fresh wound in the Left’s collective psyche, and it appears they didn’t bother asking whether she was a good match for the district. Jones has made a point of using her mother’s maiden name with the slogan “One of Us, Fighting For Us” in her campaign. However, she’s not Hispanic. Her mother immigrated from the Philippines and her white father (who never married her mother) was a drug addict. While she used “Ortiz” to play the identity-politics game with Texas voters, she used a similar message to solicit support nationally from Trump-haters, promising to become the “first Filipina-American and first out-lesbian to represent Texas in Congress, and she’ll be the first woman to represent her district.” She was endorsed by all the usual suspects of left-wing extremism, including pro-abortion groups like Planned Parenthood and Emily’s List, pro-homosexual groups like Equality PAC, Human Rights Campaign and the LGBT Victory Fund, and the anti-Israel JStreetPAC, as well as the Feminist Majority, People for the American Way and the AFL-CIO. She is campaigning on an agenda that includes socialized medicine, taxpayer funding for abortion, gun control, and amnesty for illegal aliens.
Well, good luck selling that to voters in rural Texas, ma’am. Anyone with a lick of common sense could see the problem with trying to run such a campaign in TX23, but Democrat voters in the five-way March primary paid no heed to common sense and, after she defeated Rick Trevino in a May runoff, Ms. Jones became a darling of her party’s liberal donor base. By the end of September, she had raised more than $4 million, but it now seems all that money has gone to waste.
US Chamber of Commerce strategist predicts Republicans keep US House 222-213
The current US House is controlled by Republicans 236-193.
To galvanize their voters, Republicans are airing attack ads that argue Democrats would target Trump and Kavanaugh, unleash mob rule and threaten cultural values. "Closing with a little fear," said Scott Reed, senior political strategist at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, describing the GOP approach. Reed predicted that Republicans would keep their losses to 20 House seats, just under the 23 Democrats need to return to power. Republicans are favored to hold their majority in the Senate, which stands at 51-49.
The WaPo typist of this article for the Democrat Party leads off with some amusing fantasies:
Underscoring the fast-changing political fortunes are the cold calculations by both parties in the final days.
The GOP is redirecting $1 million from a suburban district in Colorado to Florida, bailing on incumbent Rep. Mike Coffman to try to hold an open seat in Miami. Democrat Donna Shalala, a former Health and Human Services secretary in the Clinton administration, is struggling to break away from Maria Elvira Salazar, a Cuban American and former television anchor, in a district Hillary Clinton won by nearly 20 points.
Republicans have also pulled back in a Democratic-held open seat in Nevada that includes some of the suburbs of Las Vegas. Clinton won there, as well.
Democrats, meanwhile, are cutting funds in a GOP-held district in Nebraska and a Democratic-held district in northern Minnesota, two places Trump won. The latter represents one of the GOP's best chances to flip a seat from blue to red.
Start with Coffman's Republican seat in CO-6.
It was slated to go Democrat already over a month ago at Real Clear Politics when I checked on September 17th. And it had been a toss-up on September 10th. Whatever's happening with the money there, CO-6's shift toward the Democrat is not part of "fast-changing political fortunes . . . in the final days". The shift occurred much earlier.
As for Donna Shalala in FL-27 (Clinton retread!), she isn't "struggling to break away from Maria Elvira Salazar". Her support there has been ERODING, from likely Democrat in early September to leans Democrat in mid-September to toss-up in mid-October. The Republican Salazar is actually ahead there in the only poll available. The recent movement is all toward the Republican.
Same thing with the open Democrat seat in NV-3. Whatever the parties are doing with their money, the seat has been in the Democrat column for well over a month, since September 10th. But today it's a toss-up. The movement has been toward the Republican, but you would never know that from this propaganda piece.
And why mention Democrats shifting money out of Nebraska? Oooh Mable, look at that! Nebraska doesn't even have a seat on anybody's radar because there isn't one, but saying so makes it seem like there is, deep in the heart of Republican flyover country. The mission is to demoralize Republicans with this stuff, made up out of whole cloth. The Republican Bacon in NE-2 is ahead by nine points.
MN-8 is also instructive. It's not just that Republicans have there "a chance to flip a seat". The Democrat candidate there was +1 to begin September in the NYTimes poll. By mid-October the same poll has the Republican +15. Again, the direction is (massively in this instance) toward the Republican.
Of ten specific races identified in the story, I put six in the Republican column (NE-2, FL-27, MN-8, MI-6 [the Democrats' own latest poll there has Upton up by three], MN-1 and TX-23), one in the Democrat column (CO-6), and three in the toss-ups (NV-3, KY-6, PA-1).
60-40.
Looks more like a Republican wave, not an ebbing Democrat wave.
Despite alarmist headlines, Italy knows it can play chicken with the Euro cheaters up north and win because Super Mario will do "whatever it takes"
That's the lesson of Greece and Italy knows it. If there is no way the EU would let Greece go, there is no way Italy or Spain or Portugal are going to be let go, either.
Meanwhile, enjoy these alarmist headlines from a gold fundamentalist.
In theory, German, Italian, and Greek 10-year bonds should all have the same yield. In practice, they clearly don't. The difference is perceived default risk. The odds of Italy leaving the Eurozone are rising.
[I]nterest rates are on the verge of spiraling out of control in Italy. ... In theory, German, Italian, and Greek 10-year bonds should all have the same yield. In practice, they clearly don't. The spread between German 10-year and Italian 10-year bonds is 330 basis points (3.3 percentage points). The difference is perceived default risk. The odds of Italy leaving the Eurozone are rising. On September 28, Italy's proposed budget deficit of 2.4% sent bond yields soaring. And they haven't stopped.
The yield on the 10-year has been a lot higher for a long period of time than it is right now.
Everyone should relax and enjoy the show. Who knows, maybe this will force the other rule breakers to clean up their act a little bit, at least for a little while.
Pollsters on both sides agree: Bye Bye Blue Wave
Like it ever existed in the first place.
The Blue Wave was a joint creation of the Democrat Party and its allies in "communications", which is to say it was manufactured out of whole cloth for anyone who still happened to turn on the TV or the radio to get "the news". The number one objective? Demoralize the electorate which made Trump president. The polling operations funded by the Democrat media provided "proof". Like the cell phone towers which litter the American landscape, their websites became the online repeaters of this "information".
The point of this propaganda was to create the wave, not report on it.
Some polling operations were more honest, or stumbled into the truth.
Rasmussen has had the race tied twice, as far back as mid-August and also in early October (Christine Blasey Ford testified and Brett Kavanaugh defended himself on September 27th, flipping the poll from Dems +5 to Tied by October 4th).
Investors Business Daily had the race tied already in late July.
Rasmussen has had the race as close as Democrats +1 way back in May.
So did Reuters/Ipsos.
Just remember folks. For every 108 members of Communications faculties in America's colleges and universities, there are exactly ZERO registered Republicans among them.
Just about everyone you listen to in this country for information, from the time you're in kindergarten all the way to the retirement home, is a registered Democrat, or was "informed" by one.
Steve Liesman, here, getting out in front of the lies to burnish CNBC's credibility:
The latest CNBC All-America Economic Survey offers mixed signals, but leans against a wave Democratic election like ... those that swept Republicans to power in 2010 and 2014. ... "A six point differential is not something that's going to cause a big electoral wave," said Micah Roberts, the Republican pollster on the CNBC poll, a partner Public Opinion Strategies. "Economic confidence that people have among a lot of groups is providing a buffer" for Republicans. ... Jay Campbell, the Democratic pollster for the survey and a partner with Hart Research Associates, is skeptical of a wave for the Democrats, saying the six-point advantage is "not enough to suggest this is going to be a massive wave election a la 2010." Campbell did add that the survey found a large 17 percent of undecided voters who will be critical to the outcome.
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