Monday, April 11, 2016

Republican proportional voting rules are bleeding delegates from both Trump and Cruz at about the same 35% rate

Trump has won the popular vote in 20 contests representing 924 delegates, of which he has been allocated only 609, or 66%. The proportional voting rules based on congressional district performance have thus bled away 34% of his support in those races. Ted Cruz bled away 206 delegates from Trump in these states, 22% of the total.

Cruz has won the popular vote in only 9 contests representing 433 delegates, of which he has been allocated just 271, or 63%. The rules have thus bled away 37% of his support in those races. Donald Trump bled away 115 delegates from Cruz in these states, 27% of the total.

And, on average, 10% of the delegates legitimately owed to both Trump and Cruz have gone to candidates who have had no chance of winning whatsoever, and wouldn't be able to argue they have a chance of winning were it not for this insane way of proceeding which gives them the delegates to say so in the first place.

It doesn't seem fair to the voters in these 29 states that their candidates won the popular vote but didn't win all the delegates, as in winner take all, which will most certainly be the rule when the Republican nominee finally faces the Democrat in November.

If all delegates in the Democrat primaries were allotted on a winner take all basis, the outcome wouldn't be much different than it is

Based only on the 29 states so far where Democrats have held contests which collected a popular vote, Hillary Clinton leads Bernie Sanders with 1142 pledged and super delegates to his 371 based on the Bloomberg data here, which are not complete in instances. That's a 75% to 25% race.

Turn it into winner take all instead, and the result isn't significantly different. Hillary would have 1803 pledged and super delegates from the 16 states in which she was the popular vote winner, and Bernie would have 698 from the 13 states in which he won the popular vote. That's a 72% to 28% race.

This analysis leaves out the 301 delegates so far where no popular vote was taken. They come from Iowa, Nevada, Maine, Alaska, Washington, American Samoa, the Northern Mariana islands and something called "Democrats Abroad".

It also leaves out the delegates Bernie has "poached" from Hillary under the rules in the states she has won, as well as the delegates Hillary has poached from Bernie where he has won the popular vote. On net I calculate Bernie has had the advantage from poaching, with 334 extra delegates in his column as a result in the 29 popular vote contests (661 minus 327).

As the delegate race stands today including all contests, it's a 62% to 38% race, with Clinton holding 1756 pledged and super delegates to Sanders' 1068.

That's close to the popular vote result on a percentage basis, where Clinton leads with 57% of the popular vote so far to Sanders' 43%, keeping in mind that we don't have a popular vote from 8 states and territories so far to make the analysis complete. 

Sunday, April 10, 2016

Trump has won the popular vote in 20 of 32 states, should have 924 delegates under winner take all, gets only 743 under Republican rules

To date Donald Trump has won the popular vote in 20 of the 32 primary/caucus contests, entitling him to their 924 delegates on the winner take all principle, but the Republican "rules" made at the state level give Trump just 80% of these overall, while enriching others with undeserved delegate allocations at his expense.

Imagine if that happened in actual presidential elections, where the winner of the popular vote in a state normally wins all the state's electoral college votes representing both political parties. Under the current Republican rules applied to the presidential election, the Republican candidate and the Democrat candidate might so split the electoral college vote between themselves that the election would be thrown into the House of Representatives under the 12th amendment because no one happened to reach the majority of 270. Think of that at the federal level as the equivalent of a party convention at the state level deciding the outcome because, in the case of Trump, he failed to reach 1,237. The more likely outcome would be Republicans losing national elections because of close contests in traditionally Republican states where Democrats still lose but cut into their electoral college allocations if winner take all goes by the roadside. Republicans at the state level are actually paving the way in practice for Democrat reform efforts of electoral college rules.

The unfairness of that is self-evident. Winner take all in a state in presidential elections is designed to smooth the way to national unity. But the Republicans have instituted "proportionality" rules to the extent that they can't, in their mad factionalism, unite along lines which are similarly simple, reasonable and attractive to people who wish to embrace the party, and their country. Donald Trump has brought hordes of new voters to the Republican Party, but all Republican Party elites can do is turn up their noses at them. 

Ted Cruz, who has won the popular vote in just 9 contests so far compared to Trump's 20, is entitled to only 433 delegates using winner take all. But he has 545 at this hour, 26% more than he should have, some of which come from states and territories where the people themselves aren't even allowed by the Republican elites to formalize their opinion by voting.

There is no popular vote taken this year so far in Colorado, North Dakota, Wyoming, Puerto Rico, US Virgin Islands, Guam, the Northern Mariana Islands or American Samoa. Republican elites from these places decide who gets their combined 153 delegates. And #NeverTrump factions in these and other states have worked hard to make sure Trump gets as few of them as possible, if any.

To make matters worse, obvious losers like Marco Rubio and John Kasich are playing spoiler roles out of all proportion to their standing because of these rules.

Kasich has a legitimate claim on the delegates of only the one state he has won, Ohio. Instead of the 66 delegates he's entitled to, the Byzantine rules of Republicanism give him 143, 117% more than he should have.

In the case of Little Marco, he's still trying to bind his allotted 171 delegates to himself when they should be free agents because he's dropped out of the race entirely. Entitled to only 57 delegates from winning just two contests in Minnesota and DC, Rubio's unfair influence has been magnified 200% beyond what he's legitimately won because of proportional allocation rules in this year's contests.

The message being sent by Republicanism is obvious to everyone. The Republican Party is an exclusive club which has complicated, intricate rules for membership designed to keep out the riffraff, not win national elections.

Unfortunately, those rules will continue to keep the executive power far out of reach for them.

If they want to win the White House, Republicans should embrace the new voters, and Trump.

To do otherwise is political suicide.

Trump has big delegate win at Michigan Republican convention, libertarian wack job Rep. Justin Amash DEFEATED

Justin Amash endorsed Rand Paul in May 2015; Cruz is only his default candidate
CNN reports here:

Trump's national delegate director, Brian Jack, called it a "big win" for Trump. "The most important votes occurred this afternoon -- we went 5-0. Five delegates for Mr. Trump ran for committee assignments; all five were elected," Jack said. He added, "This was a big win for Team Trump. We won 25 delegates from Michigan last month, and now, at least 25 supporters of Mr. Trump will be delegates to the Republican National Convention." ... Of Michigan's 59 delegates selected Friday and Saturday, Trump supporters filled 25 spots, Cruz supporters filled 17 and Kasich supporters took another 17 -- although it was unclear who all the delegates were permanently aligned with. ... Kasich supporter Chuck Yob -- the father of Republican operative John Yob -- beat Cruz supporter Rep. Justin Amash for the other spot on the credentials committee.

Arrested in May 1970 with shoe boxes full of marijuana, Indiana establishment Republicans want their governor to be president, not Trump

Mitch Daniels

Poster Boy for Bush-era establishment Republicanism, Speaker of the House Hastert 1999-2007, was a child molester

But he won't be going to prison for that.

Story here.

If you felt molested politically by Republicans during the Bush era, there were good reasons for that which eerily echo in nature.

If you want that to continue, by all means vote for Kasich, or Cruz or for the hand-picked candidate of a contested Republican convention.

If you don't, vote for Trump.

Corrupt anti-Trump Indiana GOP requires convention delegation applicants to cough up $2,000 to participate, filters out supporters of The Donald

Reported by Politico, here:

Local GOP district leaders have picked slates of favored candidates from among the applicants that will be considered at Saturday’s caucuses — tiny meetings of county leaders that typically ratify the names with which they’re presented. Applicants must promise to furnish $2,000 to participate after they’re selected, a requirement that tilts the process away from newcomers and outsiders. Among the delegate applicants who made it on to recommended slates: several district GOP leaders, State Treasurer Kelly Mitchell, Secretary of State Connie Lawson, Congresswoman Susan Brooks, Carmel, Indiana, Mayor James Brainard and Portage, Indiana, Mayor James Snyder.

“One of my criteria for filtering out folks was whether or not they support Donald Trump,” said one district GOP leader. “I didn’t care whether they supported Ted Cruz or John Kasich.”

Indiana may vote for Trump on May 3rd, but most of the 57 delegates are already anti-Trump

So reports Politico, here:

Republican Party insiders in the state will select 27 delegates to the national convention on Saturday, and Trump is assured to be nearly shut out of support, according to interviews with a dozen party leaders and officials involved in the delegate selection process. Anti-Trump sentiment runs hot among GOP leadership in Indiana, and it’s driving a virulent rejection of the mogul among likely delegates. ... Pete Seat, an Indiana GOP consultant whose firm was recently retained by the Kasich campaign, said he would be “shocked” if there were more than a handful of Trump supporters in Indiana’s delegation.

Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump should be the candidates for president: The rest are tools for outside interests

Ranked from biggest tool to outside interests to smallest, based on percentage of PAC money to the total raised through February 2016, reported here:

Rick Perry: 91%
Jeb Bush: 78%
George Pataki: 71%
Chris Christie: 69%
Scott Walker: 61%
Carly Fiorina: 54%
Mike Huckabee: 53%
Marco Rubio: 50%
*Ted Cruz: 46%
Lindsey Graham: 44%
Rand Paul: 42%
Bobby Jindal: 41%
*John Kasich: 30.2%
Rick Santorum: 30%
*Hillary Clinton: 28%
Martin O'Malley: 15%
Ben Carson: 14%
Jim Webb: 13%
*Donald Trump: 5%
*Bernie Sanders: 0.1%


*still in the race


















(watch the gif here)

Rigged party system is leaving both Trump and Sanders supporters feeling voiceless: What's the point of voting if delegates are going to do what they want?

Be the first one on your block to have your boy come home in a box
From the story here:

[T]he sense of futility is building among supporters of Mr. Trump and Mr. Sanders, both of whom have strong appeal with people who already believe that a rigged political system leaves them voiceless and disenfranchised. ...

“It’s people who are in charge keeping their friends in power,” said Tom Carroll, 32, a union plumber who lives in Bethpage, N.Y., summing up how he viewed the electoral system. Mr. Carroll, who was at Mr. Trump’s rally on Long Island on Wednesday, expressed irritation at a system that does not always abide by the one person, one vote concept. “In other countries, we pay to fix their election systems and they get their fingers colored with fingerprint ink when they vote,” he added. “What’s the point of everyone voting if the delegates are going to do what they want?”

Colorado GOP establishment systematically de-credentialed Trump voters at convention: "Removed and replaced because I voted for Trump"

Saturday, April 9, 2016

I dunno, I just work here


Mark Levin is a hot-headed radical who doesn't have the temperament to host a radio show let alone lead an Article V convention

"We are rapidly approaching a moment of truth for the life of our nation!"
He goes from ripping #NeverTrump on April 7 here to joining it on April 9 here.

Just think what he might do at a convention. He's proposed only eleven amendments to the constitution. That's not exactly the slow, incremental change usually supported by genuine conservatives. Can you imagine him suddenly changing his mind and proposing twenty-two? forty-four? Well, I exaggerate, but now we see how quickly it could get out of control with someone like him at the helm, or advising it. He reminds me of General Buck Turgidson more and more everyday.

Forget nuking the Russkies, Levin wants to nuke the constitution!

A constitutional convention would be a disaster in the age of Obama. Unfortunately, Mark Levin also has no check upon his appetites, including for vengeance.

Marlene Ricketts of Chicago Cubs/TD Ameritrade fame is funding #NeverTrumper Erick Erickson, spending nearly $15 million so far against Trump

Reported here with FEC documentation here:

So it perhaps shouldn’t come as a surprise to find out that Erick Erickson’s media venture “The Resurgent“, is taking Super-PAC money from the (formerly Scott Walker advocates and financial backers) Ricketts family of Wisconsin who fund OUR PRINCIPLES PAC to the tune of $3,000,000 in February alone.

OpenSecrets reports here that Our Principles Pac, organized to oppose Donald Trump, has spent $14.8 million so far in the 2016 election cycle.

Last I checked Joe and Marlene Ricketts live in Wyoming, not Wisconsin.

Diana West concludes that wankers Rick Wilson and Kevin Williamson far exceed the Roger Stone standard for offensive rhetoric set by the sanctimonious Brent Bozell


What it is with these two men and masturbation is not, Glory Be, our concern; rather, it is their hellish level of discourse. I am wondering whether [L. Brent Bozo] will be issuing another righteous statement, as [he] did regarding Roger Stone, calling for "the media to shun" this noxious pair (and others, as you will see) and "denounce [them] in no uncertain terms"?

Repeat after me: Building a wall is impossible, building a wall is impossible, building . . .


Friday, April 8, 2016

And the right is paranoid, too, this week: Michigan's Steve Gruber repeats hysterical Yellowstone supervolcano story

Yesterday on his show Michigan's Steve Gruber uncritically read from this dark story, which has several iterations on the internet featuring a lurid "sea of red" map of earthquakes in Yellowstone, from which this claim:

So why are the public seismographs from the US Geological Survey (USGS) OFFLINE (to the public) today?  No one is providing any answers.

Even more peculiar, the privately-funded seismographs from the University of Utah . . . are also OFFLINE (to the public) right now.  No one is providing any explanation for this either.

The USGS page here showing earthquakes as recent as yesterday in Yellowstone features this box, with dead links to the University of Utah Seismograph Stations page here:















So what's up with that?

Well, just click "home" and the University of Utah Seismograph Stations page tells you:

UUSS has launched a redesigned website! Please visit us at http://www.seis.utah.edu  (http://quake.utah.edu ) to check out the new features.

Obviously, the government page at USGS hasn't been updated yet. Government moves slowly, and often incompetently. No news there.

Also at the Univ. of Utah home page you'll see this map of reality:





















Not this scary beast, which appears to be an historical map of all events over a long period of time:





















Paranoia will destroy ya.

Salon post on Michael Savage fizzles at the end

The piece by Robert Hennelly does a fair job of laying out the Savage oeuvre, only to show exhaustion at the end and descend into dark speculation that Savage wants part of the country to secede.

Paranoia will destroy ya.

Thursday, April 7, 2016

Rush Limbaugh seriously wants you to believe Obama is trying to help Trump by attacking him


Call it the Claire McCaskill strategy: Make sure Hillary's got someone to run against that she can beat, like Claire beat Todd Akin.

That, folks, is how much Rush Limbaugh wants Ted Cruz to be the candidate, not Trump.


Marist poll finds 53% think the middle class is dead

Here and here:

[A] majority of Americans, 53%, believe the middle class is dead. There are now only those who are struggling and those who are not. 44% disagree and believe a strong middle class remains in the United States. Racial differences are seen here, as well. When it comes to the state of the nation’s middle class, a majority of non-whites, 52%, think the middle class is still strong while only 40% of whites agree.