Sunday, April 6, 2014

2013 was a narrowly "oil investing" year based on the gold/oil ratio

The cumulative average price of gold in 2013 (London fix) was $1411.23 and the average price of Illinois Basin crude was $89.84, yielding a gold/oil ratio of 15.7, a narrowly "oil investing" year.

Gold fell $500 in price in 2013, from about $1700 to $1200.

Saturday, April 5, 2014

6 million people aged 25-54 need to be working and can't

Not only did total private employment collapse by 6 million under Obama over the 16 months after his 2008 election, today 6 million people aged 25-54 who used to be working prior to the recession no longer do.

If there's been any recovery for this age group, it's that we're back to only November 2009 levels after four+ years, recovering about 2 million at work from the beginning of 2011 to now.

Think about these people: 2 million lost their jobs from November 2009 to the end of 2010. That's not Bush's fault. That's Obama's fault. And no matter who you blame for this mess, Obama has been a complete failure restoring work to America's core employment class.

The number of participating institutions in the FDIC has dropped over 32% since the year 2000

Between October 2000 and the close of 2013, FDIC insured institutions have dropped from 10,101 to 6,812, a decline of 3,289 or 32.6%.

Of those, 521 were outright bank failures, 497 of which occurred from February 2, 2007 to February 28, 2014. Before that there were just 24 failures going back to October 2000.

The cost of the 497 failures to the FDIC's Deposit Insurance Fund has been $89.26 billion.

The failure of IndyMac Bank FSB of Pasadena, CA in July 2008 was the costliest to the FDIC: $13.2 billion.

BankUnited FSB of Coral Gables, FL was a distant second at $5.9 billion in May 2009.

Colonial Bank of Montgomery, AL cost the FDIC $4.5 billion in August 2009.

WesternBank Puerto Rico cost the FDIC $3.2 billion in April 2010.

And rounding out the top five is Amtrust Bank of Cleveland, OH which cost the FDIC $2.97 billion when it failed in December 2009.

An ambassador is dead under Hillary Clinton's tenure at State, and now $6 billion is missing


Reported here:

The State Department misplaced and lost some $6 billion due to the improper filing of contracts during the past six years, mainly during the tenure of former Secretary of State Hilary Clinton, according to a newly released Inspector General report. The $6 billion in unaccounted funds poses a “significant financial risk and demonstrates a lack of internal control over the Department’s contract actions,” according to the report.

Maybe someone should subpoena Huma Abedin about this.

Friday, April 4, 2014

Climate-change activists are exasperated beyond endurance by the gullibility of the people

So says Clive Crook for Bloombergview here.

It illustrates a more general point, that the vision of the anointed is always frustrated by the lumpenproletariat. The elites' response to them is sometimes hyperbolic, as in Lenin's recourse to a vanguard to foist the revolution on a less than enthusiastic population, or as in a certain Penn State climate scientist's recourse to the courts to shut down his critics.

Old Clive doesn't mention those, but he does mention Secretary of State John Kerry's kooky statements, and adds this:

[T]his cause isn't advanced by exaggerating what is known in order to scare people into action, nor by denouncing everybody who disagrees with such proposals as evil or idiotic.

The scientists themselves -- some of them, at least -- are partly to blame. They chose to become political advocates, no doubt out of a sincere belief that policies needed to change a lot and at once. But scientist-advocates can't expect to be seen as objective or disinterested. Once they're suspected of spinning the science or opining on questions outside their area of expertise, as political advocacy is bound to require, they lose authority.


I'd say Clive is definitely showing signs of mellowing since his association with Bloomberg. Before that he seemed less temperate, although too temperate for Paul Krugman.


The incremental change of good old Fabian socialism is what Clive seems to have settled on, as has Obama after an early explosion of revolutionary zeal in 2008 when the realities of office overwhelmed everything.

Fortunately for those of us who disagree about the climate alarums, the John Kerrys and Penn Staters don't seem to have received the memo and keep doing everything to hurt their cause.  

Obama's 6 Million: Nancy Pelosi Has Her Holes Mixed Up, Plus 3 Million More Unemployed Than Under Bush

In 2008 from the January 1 peak to the November election, total nonfarm private employment fell by almost 3 million to 113 million.

After the election of Obama, however, it plunged another 6 million until February 2010, 16 long months later.

As usual Nancy Pelosi has her holes mixed up (quoted here):

"I have to note that today we have replaced all of the jobs lost under the Bush economic policies and recession that that took us into," Pelosi told reporters on Capitol Hill. "It's taken this long to build back from that." ... Heidi Shierholz, an economist with the liberal Economic Policy Institute, said the numbers may have political or psychological value, but not much else. There are still nearly 3 million more unemployed people than when the recession started. "I cannot think of anything economically meaningful about passing the December 2007 employment level," Shierholz said.

Unemployment rate remains at 6.7% in March, average year over year job growth slows to 183k monthly, weekly hours recover

The BLS reports here:

"Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 192,000 in March, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 6.7 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment grew in professional and business services, in health care, and in mining and logging. ... Job growth averaged 183,000 per month over the prior 12 months. ... The average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls increased by 0.2 hour in March to 34.5 hours, offsetting a net decline over the prior 3 months."

-------------------------------------------------

While total nonfarm private payrolls have finally beaten the 1/1/08 peak (by just 96,000 jobs), rising to 116.07 million, neither seasonally-adjusted nor not-seasonally-adjusted total nonfarm employment has yet to surpass the pre-recession peak. Strapped municipalities and states find it difficult to add to government payrolls with reduced revenues due to on-going unemployment and reduced real estate values.

In 2013 job growth's pace averaged 194,000 monthly, which means at the current year over year pace of 183,000 monthly job growth has slowed 5.7% in 2014 to date.

Rising length of the work week arrests a worrisome downtrend for the time being.



Ted Cruz is a disaster on illegal immigration

So says Ann Coulter here.

He'll give us "guest workers" like the rest of the Republicans will, who will in short order be turned into Democrat voters by the Democrats.

She says Rick Perry and Chris Christie are disasters, too.

Time for fruit baskets all around.

Her only good candidate on the issue remains . . . Mitt Romney.

Survey of 7,500 adults says 5.4 million uninsured now have insurance!

Let's see.

The regime says 7.1 million have signed up for ObamaCare.

A new survey of just 7,500 adults says 5.4 million previously uninsured now have it because of ObamaCare. That's right. A survey of 7,500 tells us about millions.

But 6 million actually lost their insurance last year because of ObamaCare because their plans were non-compliant (too bad they weren't all Jewish--at least then we'd never hear the end of it), and had to scramble to replace their coverage, presumably under ObamaCare.

So why isn't the administration reporting 11.4 million signups? Or 13.1 million? Or hundreds of millions?

This farce gets funnier by the minute (does anyone know what Mel Brooks has been up to?).

From the story here:

At least 5.4 million people without health insurance have obtained coverage since last September—and that number will likely climb in coming weeks, a new survey found. ... "This is a great result, it's really exciting, it's really encouraging," said Katherine Hempstead, director of coverage for the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation. The organization helped fund the survey, which was conducted by researchers from the nonpartisan Urban Institute, and questioned 7,500 adults ages 18 to 64.


Thursday, April 3, 2014

ObamaCare Has Terrorized Millions Who Did Have Insurance And Lost It

Peggy Noonan in The Wall Street Journal, here:

What the bill declared it would do—insure tens of millions of uninsured Americans—it has not done. There are still tens of millions uninsured Americans. On the other hand, it has terrorized millions who did have insurance and lost it, or who still have insurance and may lose it.

Wednesday, April 2, 2014

Has America Exported Its Middle Class?

Thomas Edsall for the New York Times here seems to think so, and summarizes a number of studies which say yes and no:

Branko Milanovic, a visiting professor at CUNY who once served as a senior economist at the World Bank, has tracked worldwide changes in income growth from 1998 to 2008.

Milanovic calculates that the middle class in China and India experienced 60 to 70 percent income growth from 1998 to 2008, while growth stalled for the middle and working classes in the United States.

The question then becomes, in Milanovic’s words, “Does the growth of China and India take place on the back of the middle class in rich countries,” especially the United States? Milanovic does not claim a direct causal relationship, but contends that the two “may not be unrelated.”



Tuesday, April 1, 2014

S&P500 Hits New All Time High At 1885.52 Today

The Shiller p/e hit 25.99, and the spread to the all time real price high of the S&P500 in August 2000 at 2018.27 narrowed to 6.6%.

Godless Libertarian Triumph In MI-3: Justin Amash Is Pro-Gay All The Way, Just Like Brian Ellis His Challenger

There really is no choice for social conservatives between the two Republicans in the MI-3 primary in 2014.

Neither candidate can bring himself to support Republican Committeeman Dave Agema's lonely stand against moral and spiritual decadence in our society. In fact, both candidates attack Dave Agema. The only reason to vote for Ellis in the primary is to spoil the reelection of Amash who is a complete traitor to conservatism and never was a conservative to begin with. Of course this means a Democrat has a winning chance in MI-3. But arguably Republicans should vote for the Democrat in the general that the full measure of God's wrath may be felt here.

Michigan's 3rd Congressional District is hopelessly lost from the Judeo-Christian point of view in any case, for reasons which prevailed long before Brian Ellis and Justin Amash existed. Whatever power traditional Calvinism may have possessed in the area in the past is long since transmuted. At least Vern Ehlers gave the appearance of a Christian. This place is cursed, and deserves everything that's come to it, and is coming.

Justin Amash, Antiochian Orthodox, quoted here in January:

“Defending civil liberties is at the heart of the Republican Party and our Constitution. As I've demonstrated with my words and record, I am trying to grow a new generation of Republicans that includes more gays and lesbians, racial-ethnic minorities, women and young people," Amash said.

And Brian Ellis, an Episcopalian, in the same story:

"Dave Agema’s discriminatory rhetoric gets in the way of sharing our Republican solutions," Ellis said in his statement.

Well, look at it this way. If you are looking for a church to join, you now have two more to cross off your list.

America Lost $10 Billion On The GM Bailout As 2014 Recalls Surge Another 1.3 Million To 6.1 Million

The driver claimed his power steering locked up after hitting a pothole.
The GM recall debacle of 2014 is developing so fast it's hard to keep up.

On Saturday the New York Times announced the weekend's recalls had brought the total in 2014 to 4.8 million, but here we are on Tuesday and GM is adding another 1.3 million to that, bringing the total so far to 6.1 million, I think.

If ever a company deserved to go bankrupt and sold off to the highest bidders, GM is it. The crap it's churned out in the last decade is amazing.

Don't forget it was Obama who insisted on preserving all those union jobs you're so proud of as the steering goes out on your Malibu on the way to buy groceries with your EBT card.

Media Shills Claim Surging Support For ObamaCare Even As Obama Disapproval Surges To New Highs

Now why would Obama set a new record for disapproval if his signature law is so popular?

On the last day for open enrollment in ObamaCare yesterday, the news script on the radio at the top and bottom of each hour was the same: support for ObamaCare is surging, when the fact is that overall it isn't.

Those reports were based on the headline story from WaPo here: "Democrats’ support for Obamacare surges", conveniently leaving out "Democrats'".

As with most infractions against the truth in our society, we major in sins of omission and minor in sins of commission, unless you're the Obama regime, which got a double major. Not only is it more secretive and conniving than Tricky Dick ever dreamed of being, it sends the leader of the free world off to Brazil after sending in the troops to Libya, leaving hapless Dick Lugar trying to find someone to complain to at The White House about not consulting with the Congress first.

The WaPo/ABC poll showing surging support for ObamaCare among supporters (!) started on March 26th, the same day WaPo here headlined "Poll: Obama’s disapproval rating hits a new high", surmising it's due to foreign policy:

Negative views of President Obama have hit a new high, according to a poll. The AP-GfK poll shows 59 percent of Americans now disapprove of Obama -- a point higher than the previous high set in December. Obama's approval rating stands at 41 percent. That's the second-lowest figure the poll has ever found. Part of Obama's problems appear to be related to foreign policy: The poll shows Americans disapprove of his handling of the situation in Ukraine 57-40 and disapprove of how he handles relationships with other countries 58-40.

Foreign policy? Really? Americans never give foreign policy much thought, and even less than they have given to signing up for ObamaCare. Sign-ups supposedly surged yesterday in a rush to beat the deadline, crashing the system, even though people have had six months to sign up and the regime has had three years to build a website that works. Where have they all been living during the PR blitz, under a rock?

Of course, WaPo doesn't tell you about the other "part" of the reason for Obama's record level of disapproval.

But they don't have to. You already know what it is, and so do they, which is why they didn't mention it.

Monday, March 31, 2014

Obama Befriends Illegals: ICE Arrests Plummet 40% Since 2011, 870,000 Deportable Aliens Remain Deep In Country

. . . and these Republicans support him.
The Daily Caller reports here:

Since June 2011, when the first of the Obama administration’s “prosecutorial discretion” policies were put in place, the [Center for Immigration Studies] report adds, interior ICE arrests have declined by 40 percent. ... ICE reports that there are more than 870,000 aliens on its docket who have been ordered removed, but who remain in defiance of the law.

To paraphrase Aristotle, citizens have the back of the king but a tyrant relies on foreigners for protection.

Sunday, March 30, 2014

Maryland Junks Its Failed Online Healthcare Exchange, Now If Only The Feds Would Do The Same

Story here:

Maryland is not alone in having deep-seated problems with its health marketplace. Technical issues also have plagued Oregon, Minnesota and Hawaii. But Maryland will be the first to walk away from its site, a particular embarrassment for Lt. Gov. Anthony G. Brown (D), who was placed in charged of implementing health-care reform in Maryland by Gov. Martin O’Malley (D).

Bailed-Out GM Auto Recall Surges To 4.8 Million In 2014 From 0.76 Million In 2013

Top 20 vehicles by sales volume 2013
There's your everyday, run-of-the-mill, garden-variety recall from going automobile companies like Toyota and Honda who recall vehicles and still make a profit, and then there's your government-subsidized, taxpayer-funded, otherwise bankrupt recall like one from General Motors or Chrysler.

Which would you prefer?

The New York Times reports here:

General Motors announced on Saturday morning that it was recalling 490,000 trucks and 172,000 compact cars, meaning the automaker has now recalled about 4.8 million vehicles in the United States during the first three months of the year. That is about six times the number of vehicles it recalled in all of 2013. ... G.M. recalled about 758,000 vehicles in the United States in 2013, ninth among automakers, according to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. Toyota was first, with about 5.3 million vehicles, followed by Chrysler with 4.7 million and Honda with almost 2.8 million.

Taxpayers lost $10 billion on the GM bailout, $1.3 billion on the Chrysler bailout.


Lost For Three Weeks, Malaysian Flight 370 May Join 83 Other Disappearances Since WWII

Bloomberg has a good graphic here of aircraft which have simply vanished in the post-war, about 1.2 per year on average.

Wikipedia now has quite a large page devoted to Flight 370, here.

In addition Wikipedia devotes pages to 33 individual lost aircraft over the years, listed here.

Friday, March 28, 2014

Memo To Larry Kudlow And Other Defenders Of GM/TARP Bailouts: Free Market Capitalism This Is Not

General Motors, bailed out at a loss to the American people in 2009, has now had to recall approximately 2.6 million vehicles according to this story, many built well after the fact:

General Motors is boosting by 971,000 the number of small cars being recalled worldwide for a defective ignition switch, saying cars from the model years 2008-2011 may have gotten the part as a replacement.

The latest move brings the total number of cars affected to 2.6 million. The questionable handling of the problem, including GM's admission that it knew the switches were possibly defective as early as 2001, has embarrassed the nation's largest automaker. The recalls — which are under investigation by Congress and federal regulators — have overshadowed the improved quality of GM's newer cars.





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Improved quality? You mean like the Volt which catches on fire? The Cruze whose steering wheel comes off? If this were a free market capitalist economy, Larry, GM would have been allowed to fail instead of being allowed to keep on selling this garbage to the American people.

GM should have gone through bankruptcy instead of being bailed out. It might have been reorganized as a result, but not as a worthless union shop. Otherwise its assets would have been acquired by the highest bidders who know how to build cars. Unfortunately GM's still here making crummy cars with shitty parts, some of which could kill more people, all thanks to the taxpayers, some of whom are still dumb enough to keep buying the things. Just Google the forums and read the horror stories. I'll bet they're the same ones who don't know Monday is the deadline to sign up for ObamaCare.

I've said it before and I'll say it again: no more GM cars for me, ever. The bailout was a bridge too far.

Ditto Chrysler.