Thursday, April 3, 2025
Trump tariff math is about trade imbalances and is not about a reciprocal response to a rate, requiring a trading partner to buy more from the United States rather than just eliminating its tariff rate
In other words Trump's calculations of foreign countries' tariffs on the United States result in fictional rates.
From the story here:
... For instance, the U.S. claims that China charges a tariff of 67%. The U.S. ran a deficit of $295.4 billion with China in 2024, while imported goods were worth $438.9 billion, according to official data. When you divide $295.4 billion by $438.9 billion, the result is 67%! The same math checks out for Vietnam.
“The formula is about trade imbalances with the U.S. rather than reciprocal tariffs in the sense of tariff level or non-tariff level distortions. This makes it very difficult for Asian, particularly the poorer Asian countries, to meet US demand to reduce tariffs in the short-term as the benchmark is buying more American goods than they export to the U.S., ” according to Trinh Nguyen, senior economist of emerging Asia at Natixis.
The U.S. also appeared to have applied a 10% levy for regions where it is running a trade surplus. ...
Futures at 7:00 AM EST:
Wednesday, April 2, 2025
Ron Klain says Biden's brain was applesauce, but still believed Biden should have stayed in the race after the bad debate with Trump
Well, that doesn't make any sense.
From the story here:
... Even after the disastrous debate, by his own telling to Whipple, Klain believed Biden should have stayed in the race – a statement that jars with Klain’s account of debate prep at Camp David. ...
Mad King Ludwig says pigs will fly
You're going to see billions of dollars, even trillions of dollars coming into our country very soon in the form of tariffs.
Venezuelan gangs in America are an invasion like January 6th riots were an insurrection
Brought to you courtesy of the UniParty, the Red, White, and Blue.
Count me out.
Mad King Ludwig will never get the Nobel Peace Prize now, even if he does end the Russian war in Ukraine
US cancels visa of Nobel Peace Prize winner Oscar Arias
The former president of Costa Rica, Oscar Arias, says his US visa has been revoked.
Arias, a Nobel laureate, said he was informed of the decision weeks after he had publicly criticised Donald Trump, comparing the behaviour of the US president to that of a Roman emperor.
The 84-year-old, who was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize for his role in brokering an end to conflicts in Central America, said US authorities had given no explanation. ...
Tuesday, April 1, 2025
The New York Times has called the race for the Wisconsin Supreme Court for the candidate endorsed by Democrats
Elon Musk had invested heavily in electing the candidate endorsed by Republicans in the race.
The New York Times shows FL-1 and FL-6 staying Republican with each GOP candidate garnering about 57% of the vote in tonight's special elections to replace Gaetz and Waltz
US HOUSE:
GOP 220
DEM 213 (two vacancies due to deaths; seats expected to stay Democrat yielding 215)
US imports came to $4.11 trillion in 2024: You'd have to tariff this out of existence to pay for the nearly $7 trillion in federal outlays in fiscal 2024
The tariff rate would have to be 170%, not 20% or 25% or even 50%.
Those are not serious proposals.
The tax base is much too small.
Humoring Mad King Ludwig about this is an errand worthy only of fools.
GOP in both House and Senate seem to agree that re-upping the 2017 Trump tax cuts won't cost anything even though it did the first time lol, $1.9 trillion over ten years according to the CBO
The Party now says ignore the evidence of your memory.
Reported here:
... At this point, senior House Republicans privately say they think House Republicans will accept the Senate’s push to use the “current policy baseline” accounting tactic to extend the 2017 tax cuts and claim it costs nothing. The biggest hurdle now is the vast discrepancy between the Senate’s targeted spending cut minimums and the House’s $1.5 trillion spending cut target. ...
Judge Boasberg was correct to order the flights to El Salvador to turn around, Trump administration now admits it made a mistake deporting Kilmar Abrego Garcia
No person shall be deprived of life, liberty, or property, without due process of law.
-- Fifth Amendment
Due process exists to prevent such mistakes. Dictator Trump didn't care about following it.
Who will be his next victim?
From the story here:
... The Trump administration acknowledged late Monday that it had inadvertently deported a man to El Salvador last month despite a court’s determination that he had a legitimate fear of persecution in his home country.
“This removal was an error,” a top Immigration and Customs Enforcement official wrote in a statement to a federal judge.
Kilmar Abrego Garcia, a Salvadoran, was on one of three deportation flights to his home country on March 15 amid a frantic legal fight over President Donald Trump’s decision to invoke war powers to hasten the deportation of more than 100 Venezuela nationals to El Salvador. In addition to the Venezuelans subject to Trump’s invocation of the Alien Enemies Act were other deportees with purported gang ties. ...
He was arrested by ICE on March 12 and sent to El Salvador on March 15, where his wife recognized him in a video showing the shackled and shaven prisoners being arrayed by Salvadoran authorities.
The Trump administration now says there’s nothing it can do to facilitate Abrego Garcia’s return to U.S. custody. ...
Monday, March 31, 2025
Kremlin Karoline admits she doesn't spend very much time with her eight-month-old son
In God She Trusts: Karoline Leavitt's Journey to the White House Podium
... "I spend every second that I possibly can with my son when I'm home on weekends and evenings. I try to make it home for bedtime as much as I can throughout the week."
Which doesn't leave too much time for sleep.
"Actually, it's usually about five to six hours a night is what I'm doing, which is all we need. As President Trump says, when you love your job and you love your life, you don't need to sleep much." ...
I wouldn't say Greenland's PM exploded at Trump, he issued a calm but strongly worded statement
"We must listen when others talk about us. But we must not be shaken. President Trump says the United States is 'getting Greenland.'
"Let me make this clear: The U.S. is not getting that. We don't belong to anyone else. We decide our own future. We must not act out of fear. We must respond with peace, dignity and unity.
"And it is through these values that we must clearly, clearly and calmly show the American president that Greenland is ours. It was like that yesterday. That's how it is today. And that's how it will be in the future."
Marine Le Pen's jail sentence will be an electronic tag lol, which lends credence to the charge that this is merely political and unserious
Reported here:
... Le Pen was also given a four-year prison sentence — two years
suspended and two wearing an electronic tag — and fined 100,000 euros,
although these will not be implemented while any appeals processes are
under way. The ban from public office is immediate, however. ...
Le Pen and 24 other members of her political party, Rassemblement National, were accused of diverting over 3 million euros ($3.3 million) of European Parliament funds to pay staff based in France instead.
Le Pen and her co-accused had denied the charges, while the party describes the trial as a politically-motivated witch hunt. ...
Marine Le Pen sentenced to jail in France, barred from running for office in 2027
Marine Le Pen Sentenced to Prison, Banned From Next Elections Over Embezzlement
... Judges handed down a sentence Monday that bars Le Pen from seeking public office for the next five years, upending France’s political order and thrusting her far-right party into limbo. Le Pen also received a four-year prison sentence, half of which was suspended. The ruling takes Le Pen out of contention for the 2027 race, when President Emmanuel Macron finishes his second and final term and she was expected to be the front-runner. ...
Sunday, March 30, 2025
Ukrainian-American Republican Victoria Spartz (IN-5), born in the former Soviet Union in 1978, thinks you are not entitled to due process if you violated the law
She didn't become a U.S. citizen until she was 28, but somehow she gets to decide important matters about spending my money and taxing my wallet without knowing that everyone within the United States is entitled to due process of law, whether here lawfully or not, under the Fifth and Fourteenth Amendments.
You cannot just scoop people up and disappear them without a hearing before a judge in a court of law.
That points up the gravity of the crimes Biden committed by letting in so many people so lawlessly. The burden of removing all these people under our laws is heavy. The blame is all his.
But the law is the law.
Start violating due process for some people, and eventually you'll violate it for others, maybe even for ignorant immigrants such as Victoria Spartz who don't know what the hell they are talking about.
As presidential mandates go, Trump's is very small, smaller than Bush 43's second term and smaller than Carter's
The top mandates go to Nixon II at 1.61, Johnson at 1.58, Reagan II at 1.44, IKE II at 1.36, and IKE I at 1.24.
The top combined term mandates go to Reagan at 1.34, Nixon at 1.31, IKE at 1.30, Clinton at 1.17, and Obama at 1.12.
Bush 43 I and Trump I have the dubious distinction of sub-one mandates, meaning they failed to win the popular vote. JFK and Nixon I barely squeaked above 1.000.
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| click to enlarge |
Some of what Dark Brandon said in 2022 is what some Democrats still want their leader to say today in 2025
... Donald Trump and the MAGA Republicans represent an extremism that threatens the very foundations of our Republic. ... there’s no question that the Republican Party today is dominated, driven
and intimidated by Donald Trump and the MAGA Republicans. And that is a
threat to this country. ... MAGA Republicans do not respect the Constitution. They do not believe in the rule of law. ... They promote authoritarian leaders. ... They thrive on chaos. ... American
democracy only works only if we choose to respect the rule of law and
the institutions that were set up in this chamber behind me. ...
-- Joe Biden, 1 September 2022, Independence Hall, Philadelphia, PA
The voters' response to this in 2022 was to flip the Democrats' House 222 majority to a 222 Republican one.
In 2024, the Republican lead narrowed to 220-215. Special elections in Florida this week will either ratify that lead or narrow it some more.
All I can think of when I read about Democrats wanting a more angry, a more centrist candidate, a more combative leader who meets the moment, is that they had all that in Joe Biden and they dumped him
The outright treason against their own president is the Democrats' real problem with their own voters, who lost faith in them and voted for Trump instead.
Democrats are furious. And they want their leaders to get mad, too.
“I wish you’d be angry,” a constituent told representative Gil Cisneros, a Democrat of California, at a recent town hall. At an event in Minnesota featuring a panel of Democratic attorneys general, an activist voiced a similar sentiment: “Get angry, man,” punctuating the message with a profanity.
The anger roiling the party, slow to build, is now a forceful current coursing through the electorate and pulling in Americans terrified that the country is descending into authoritarianism. Democrats – with no leader to guide them and little power to wield in Washington – are scrambling to harness the sudden fury. ...
Of course, we all know that that Joe Biden, especially the centrist Joe Biden, didn't really have control of his own White House, covering up which until it couldn't be covered up anymore just shows that the incumbent wasn't really trustworthy either.
Trump & Co. already know they're going to lose in the mid-terms
It's going to be a wait that seems like an eternity.
Reported here:
... The same person added that Trump sees little downside politically: 'No. 1, the president is not running for reelection. And No. 2, we're probably gonna lose the House in the midterms.' ...
Senator John Kennedy (R-La.) was blunt in his warning: 'If tariffs did have an inflationary impact - or an impact on interest rates that caused inflation and the economy moved toward a recession - that would be a very bad thing… It would turn the Trump presidency from a four year term into a two year term, because we'd lose in the midterms.' ...
Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick is the Trump administration sycophant who tells Trump whatever he wants to hear
Reported here:
... On the other side are Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and senior adviser Peter Navarro, the latter a long-time tariff evangelist.
Navarro has described the administration as operating in harmony, quoting the 2002 film Drumline: 'One band, one sound.'
'We are the greatest economic team and April 2nd will be a historic day for American workers,' Lutnick said.
But others inside the administration are less certain of Lutnick's motivations.
'He goes into the Oval and tells the president whatever he wants to hear,' said one Trump ally, calling Lutnick a 'f***ing nightmare' who backs Trump's instincts without considering broader consequences.
Lutnick's influence appears to be growing, even as concerns mount that his approach is untethered from policy grounding.
As the April 2 deadline looms, inflation continues to rise, according to new Commerce Department data released on Friday - even before the new tariffs take effect. ...
Saturday, March 29, 2025
Earthquake in Myanmar, aka Burma, kills over 1,000
The death toll from a powerful 7.7 magnitude earthquake in Myanmar jumped to more than 1,000 on Saturday as more bodies were pulled from the rubble of the scores of buildings that collapsed when it struck near the country’s second-largest city. ...
In neighboring Thailand, the quake rocked the greater Bangkok area, home
to some 17 million people, and other parts of the country.
Bangkok city authorities said so far six people have been found dead, 26 injured and 47 are still missing, most from a construction site near the capital’s popular Chatuchak market. ...
Earthquakes are rare in Bangkok, but relatively common in Myanmar. The country sits on the Sagaing Fault, a major north-south fault that separates the India plate and the Sunda plate. ...
Friday, March 28, 2025
Elon Musk hasn't saved the taxpayers anything, year-to-date spending is actually 7.4% higher in 2025 than in 2024
Reported here:
... The Hamilton Project, an economic policy think tank, tracks federal spending using daily treasury statements published by the government.
These data show that the federal government had spent $1.893 trillion in 2025 as of March 26, compared to $1.763 trillion at the same date last year. In other words, federal spending in on pace to come in 7.4% higher this year than last. ...
After 38 years, it's time to junk the bedrock idea undergirding conservative economic philosophy of low taxes because IT'S NOT TRUE
AXIOS today, here:
A bedrock idea of conservative economic philosophy is [the] idea that low taxes fuel economic growth.
This idea is simply false, and history proves it.
We've had 38 years since the Reagan Tax Reform Act of 1986 to prove it correct and it's not.
Real GDP 1986-2024 has grown at a compound annual rate of 2.586%, a rate 29% worse than for the same length of time before that when taxes were much higher.
Real GDP 1948-1986 grew at a compound annual rate of 3.635%.
Tax reform is a complicated topic, the political subject of the AXIOS article.
I can simplify it for you: Tax like we used to in the immediate post-war.
Nominal marginal rates in 1957 (dollars are NOT adjusted for inflation in the tables), the height of the Baby Boom, went from 20% to 91%.
The set up didn't stop people from marrying, having children, and buying houses, and it didn't stop economic growth, because it forced rich people to avoid these confiscatory marginal rates by investing their money domestically to earn income at lower rates of capital taxation.
Ronald Reagan's tax reform was a license to invest elsewhere, and we're all poorer for it.
If Democrats had any brains they would propose richly rewarding domestic investment using the tax code and severely punishing foreign investment. They could start by raising top marginal tax rates on ordinary income and offering much lower long term capital gains tax rates de-linked from ordinary income but only for domestic investment.
The country desperately needs much better economic growth, and the libertarian-Republican consensus is not providing it.
 |
| Investment abroad eclipsed investment at home for the first time in 1993 and is 200% of domestic today |
Just as 9.7 million of 43 million student loan borrowers become past due again, cars they can't afford to buy anyway soar in price due to tariffs, a one-two punch alienating the youth vote from Trump
Over 9 million student loan borrowers past due after bills restarted, Fed estimates
... A new student loan delinquency can cause a borrower’s credit score to drop more than 150 points, the Fed warns.
... The tariffs will kick in at midnight on April 3, and Trump has said they will be “permanent.” ...
... A spokesperson for Klarna acknowledged to NBC News that people needing to pay for meals on credit is “a bad indicator for society.” ...
Latest Trump minerals deal with Ukraine carves up the invaded country between Trump and Putin even worse than before
Trump's minerals deal with Ukraine is an expropriation document, demanding half of its oil and gas, almost all of its metals, and now also much of its infrastructure in reparations.
Black radicals want reparations from whites. The radical Trump wants to gobble up most of Ukraine.
Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, here:
Donald Trump is holding a gun to the head of Volodymyr Zelensky, demanding huge reparations payments and laying claim to half of Ukraine’s oil, gas, and hydrocarbon resources as well as almost all its metals and much of its infrastructure.
The latest version of his “minerals deal”, obtained by The Telegraph, is unprecedented in the history of modern diplomacy and state relations. ...
It dovetails with parallel talks between the US and Russia for a
comprehensive energy partnership, including plans to restore West
Siberian gas flows to Europe in large volumes, with US companies and
Trump-aligned financiers gaining a major stake in the business.
The revived gas trade would flow through Ukraine’s network, and later via the Baltic as the sabotaged Nord Stream pipelines are brought back on stream. ...
Prof Riley said: “It is not compatible with EU membership, and perhaps that is part of the purpose. I have to wonder whether the real intention might not be to force Zelensky to reject it.” ...
Germany’s Bild Zeitung said talks have been underway for weeks in Switzerland to reopen the Nord Stream 2 pipelines, conducted secretly by ex-Stasi agent Matthias Warnig and Mr Trump’s envoy Richard Grenell, a man known for his Kremlin sympathies.
The terms would give US contractors operational control and a fat revenue stream, creating money out of “thin air”. A cynic might call it a legal “donation” to Mr Trump’s circle by the Kremlin.
“There is talk about Nord Stream. It would be interesting if the Americans put pressure on Europe, to make them stop refusing our Russian gas,” said Sergei Lavrov, Russia’s foreign minister. ...
All evidence so far is that Trump & Putin Inc is a perfectly harmonious joint venture.
The new Axis of Evil: Putin and Trump are tag-teaming to carve up the world
Russia’s Putin says it would be a ‘profound mistake’ to dismiss Trump’s push for Greenland
“In short, the United States has serious plans regarding Greenland. These plans have long historical roots, as I have just mentioned, and it is obvious that the United States will continue to consistently advance its geo-strategic, military-political and economic interests in the Arctic,” Putin said.
Democrats united under Hakeem Jeffries in the US House are the only ones in American politics above water right now
US House Democrats voted unanimously against the Republicans' continuing spending resolution under -4.2 underwater Republican Speaker Mike Johnson (except for Democrat Jared Golden [ME-2], a Blue Dog Democrat who under ranked choice voting in Maine wins by being the second choice of people who voted for someone else).
Senate Minority Leader Democrat Chucky Schumer (-19.6) led eight other Democrats in the US Senate to pass the continuing spending resolution.
Republicans are jumping the shark. Opposing that is popular.
Democrats, are you listening?
Core pce inflation in February 2025 was 2.8% year over year, 75% higher than the 1.6% average 2017-2020
The last eleven months have seen the year over year measure fluctuating between 2.88% and 2.63%.
Zero progress since April 2024, when the measure rounded to 2.9%, same as in December.
Yeah, but your leaders wear Tiffany and Rolex, that's what counts.
Thursday, March 27, 2025
Real GDP update for Mar 27, 2025
The third report for real GDP for 4Q2024 and full year 2024 was released today here.
The annual rate of economic growth in 4Q was 2.4%, and 2.8% for 2024.
But here's the big picture.
Real GDP for the 79 years 1929-2008 grew at a compound annual rate of 3.405%.
Real GDP for the 16 years 2008-2024 grew at a compound annual rate of 2.074%, a rate 39% lower.
We have not had, and do not now have, the greatest economy ever at any point since the Great Recession.
Russia repeatedly violates ceasefire on Ukrainian energy infrastructure
Zelenskiy says Russia hit Ukraine’s power infrastructure, US should react
President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Thursday Russian artillery had
damaged Ukraine’s energy infrastructure in the front-line city of
Kherson, two days after the U.S. announced that each side had agreed to a
truce on energy strikes. ...
Russia, which launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 and now holds about 20% of the country, contends that it has observed an energy strike truce since March 18. Ukraine says Russia has attacked eight Ukrainian energy facilities since that date. ...
It's important to remember that screw-up Pete Hegseth is SECDEF because of J. D. Vance
... Vice President Vance had to break a tie vote to get Hegseth confirmed after three Republicans — Sens. Susan Collins (Maine), Lisa Murkowski (Alaska) and Mitch McConnell (Ky.) — voted no. ...
More.
LOL Stefanik stays in the House even though Democrats are down two seats due to recent sudden deaths
Whipping the vote for Trump in the GOP-led House must be getting harder and harder given all the mayhem he's causing for Republican voters in Republican districts, who are losing their government jobs and are becoming afraid for their Social Security among other things.
Assuming Republicans keep FL-1 and FL-6, they'll be back to 220 since Stefanik isn't leaving for the UN, but apparently a temporary seven-vote majority is needed because for some legislation the GOP still doesn't have the votes.
White House withdrawing Stefanik nomination to serve as U.S. ambassador to UN
... House Republicans had expressed concern that if Stefanik was confirmed, it would have made it tougher to get Trump’s agenda through the lower chamber because Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) would have lost a vote in his conference and didn’t have a clear idea how long it would take New York Gov. Kathy Hochul to schedule a special election to fill the seat.
Gold made another new record high price today at $3,059.30, the 17th new high of the year
According to CNBC here.
An earlier version of the story incorrectly stated a futures price as the new high spot price.
None other than Bernard-Henri Levy, the French Jewish author of the book The Will to See, puts then Representative Mike Waltz (FL-6) and Jeffrey Goldberg of The Atlantic together in October 2021, thanking them for coming to his book launch
Trump National Security Adviser Mike Waltz denies ever meeting the guy he was standing near.
As with the Biden administration after the Kabul debacle, there won't be any accountability for people at the top in Signalgate while tens of thousands lose their gubmint jobs
"One law for me, another for thee."
Signed, The UniParty.
But look on the brightside. You just lost your job working for Uncle Sam, you didn't get killed or left behind in a hellhole to rot.
Wednesday, March 26, 2025
Meanwhile the main story goes unaddressed, as usual: The Trump administration is a materialist horror show without a soul, whose god is money, which treats our allies as freeloaders
Everything is reduced to a mere transaction.
It is libertarianism writ large.
The incompetence of Signalgate comes on the heels last month of a Tass News Agency journalist gaining access to the Oval Office meeting with Zelenskyy
It's all part of a pattern of incompetence which includes Elon Musk firing people indiscriminately and then having to scurry and rehire people in critical positions who never should have been fired in the first place.
Amateur Hour 2.0
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