Unless it's REALLY REALLY IMPORTANT.
POLL: Majority oppose laws restricting drag...
But in that poll 92% were registered voters, and of those only 29% polled were Republicans when Republican votes for Congress in Election 2022 represented 50.6% of the votes cast (54.5 million) vs. 47.8% for the Democrats (51.5 million).
That's the trick with almost all polls, minimizing the size of the Republican opposition from the get-go in order to obtain a preordained result favorable to the left's side.
Same thing happened with this one from March 27th. Just 29% were Republicans.
POLL: Americans Pull Back from Values that Once Defined USA...
These information war operations wouldn't be necessary if Americans overwhelmingly agreed with the left on the issue du jour.
Here's Obama:
“With my successor coming in, I think he saw an opportunity because the U.S. president didn’t seem to care that much about a rules-based international system,” Obama said, the Daily Mail reported. "As a consequence, I think China’s attitude [is], 'Well, we can take advantage of what appears to be a vacuum internationally on a lot of these issues.'"
It was Obama who never cared about the rules, never challenged China's military expansion in the South China Sea under Xi, and telegraphed nothing but weakness to China.
Here's Xi Jinping as early as 2014:
Tabled by the popular ultranationalist blogger Zhou
Xiaoping, the plan would authorize the assassination of blacklisted
individuals—including Taiwan’s vice president, William Lai Ching-te—if
they do not reform their ways. Zhou later told the Hong Kong newspaper Ming Pao
that his proposal had been accepted by the conference and “relayed to
relevant authorities for evaluation and consideration.” Proposals like
Zhou’s do not come by accident. In 2014, Xi praised Zhou for the
“positive energy” of his jeremiads against Taiwan and the United States. ...
But the most telling moments of the two-sessions meetings, perhaps unsurprisingly, involved Xi himself. The Chinese leader gave four speeches in all—one to delegates of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, two to the National People’s Congress, and one to military and paramilitary leaders. In them, he described a bleak geopolitical landscape, singled out the United States as China’s adversary, exhorted private businesses to serve China’s military and strategic aims, and reiterated that he sees uniting Taiwan and the mainland as vital to the success of his signature policy to achieve “the great rejuvenation of the Chinese ethnos.”
In his first speech on March 6, Xi appeared to be girding China’s industrial base for struggle and conflict. “In the coming period, the risks and challenges we face will only increase and become more severe,” he warned. “Only when all the people think in one place, work hard in one place, help each other in the same boat, unite as one, dare to fight, and be good at fighting, can they continue to win new and greater victories.” To help the CCP achieve these “greater victories,” he vowed to “correctly guide” private businesses to invest in projects that the state has prioritized.
Xi also blasted the United States directly in his speech, breaking his practice of not naming Washington as an adversary except in historical contexts. He described the United States and its allies as leading causes of China’s current problems. “Western countries headed by the United States have implemented containment from all directions, encirclement and suppression against us, which has brought unprecedented severe challenges to our country’s development,” he said. Whereas U.S. President Joe Biden’s administration has emphasized “guardrails” and other means of slowing the deterioration of U.S.-China relations, Beijing is clearly preparing for a new, more confrontational era.
On March 5, Xi gave a second speech laying out a vision of Chinese self-sufficiency that went considerably further than any of his previous discussions of the topic, saying China’s march to modernization is contingent on breaking technological dependence on foreign economies—meaning the United States and other industrialized democracies. Xi also said that he wants China to end its reliance on imports of grain and manufactured goods. “In case we’re short of either, the international market will not protect us,” Xi declared. Li, the outgoing premier, emphasized the same point in his annual government “work report” on the same day, saying Beijing must “unremittingly keep the rice bowls of more than 1.4 billion Chinese people firmly in their own hands.” China currently depends on imports for more than a third of its net food consumption.
In his third speech, on March 8 to representatives from the PLA and the People’s Armed Police, Xi declared that China must focus its innovation efforts on bolstering national defense and establish a network of national reserve forces that could be tapped in wartime. Xi also called for a “National Defense Education” campaign to unite society behind the PLA, invoking as inspiration the Double Support Movement, a 1943 campaign by the Communists to militarize society in their base area of Yan’an.
In his fourth speech (and his first as a third-term president), on March 13, Xi announced that the “essence” of his great rejuvenation campaign was “the unification of the motherland.” Although he has hinted at the connection between absorbing Taiwan and his much-vaunted campaign to, essentially, make China great again, he has rarely if ever done so with such clarity.
One thing that is clear a decade into Xi’s rule is that it is important to take him seriously—something that many U.S. analysts regrettably do not do. When Xi launched a series of aggressive campaigns against corruption, private enterprise, financial institutions, and the property and tech sectors, many analysts predicted that these campaigns would be short-lived. But they endured. The same was true of Xi’s draconian “zero COVID” policy for three years—until he was uncharacteristically forced to reverse course in late 2022.
Xi is now intensifying a decade long campaign to break key economic and technological dependencies on the U.S.-led democratic world. He is doing so in anticipation of a new phase of ideological and geostrategic “struggle,” as he puts it. His messaging about war preparation and his equating of national rejuvenation with unification mark a new phase in his political warfare campaign to intimidate Taiwan. He is clearly willing to use force to take the island. What remains unclear is whether he thinks he can do so without risking uncontrolled escalation with the United States.
SVB will cost the DIF $20 billion. Signature will cost $2.5 billion.
These are enormous sums.
Combined they represent a 17.55% hit to the $128.2 billion balance of the Deposit Insurance Fund as of 12/31/22.
SVB will rank numero uno in this list ahead of IndyMac's $12 billion.
Signature Bank will probably rank fourth ahead of Colonial Bank's $2.4 billion. The final costs are yet to be determined.
Until these two recent failures there were just six institutions in the billion dollar or higher club for DIF bailouts.
FDIC member institutions fund the DIF through FDIC-imposed assessments.
It is received opinion that these bailouts will cost the taxpayers nothing.
It is a fact that the tax-paying customers of these banks end up paying, through high interest rates on loans and effectively zero return paid by the banks on deposits.
First they came for your toilets, dishwashers, and clothes washers, and you said nothing.
Then they came for your coal, and you said nothing.
Then they came for your lightbulbs, and you said nothing.
The French are rioting because Macron, who lost his parliamentary majority last summer, decided to ram through his changes to the retirement system without a vote of the National Assembly.
In other words, he thinks he's king.
One message for Tucker Carlson viewers, another for "neocons".
But trying to thread that needle is a fool's errand.
Ron DeSantis obviously isn't ready for this yet. No one thinks any part of Ukraine is Russian territory, especially since Russia agreed to the new borders in the 1994 Budapest Memorandum.
DeSantis could elevate himself by pointing out that Ukraine also pledged itself to neutrality in that agreement, and that Ukraine should return to that position instead of seeking EU and NATO membership.
Unfortunately, it appears that DeSantis, and the rest of the field, needs to let Trump become the candidate and lose again in order to cleanse the GOP of Trump once and for all.
DeSantis would be better positioned for 2028 anyway, when the Russia-Ukraine conflict enters its sixth year, at which time he can better Monday morning quarterback the whole thing. He will turn 50 in 2028. He has time. He needs time.
'Well, I think it's been mischaracterized. Obviously, Russia invaded — that was wrong. They invaded Crimea and took that in 2014 — That was wrong,' DeSantis told Piers Morgan in an interview more than a week after his initial comments. ...
'What I'm referring to is where the fighting is going on now which is that eastern border region Donbas, and then Crimea, and you have a situation where Russia has had that. I don't think legitimately but they had,' he said.
More.
The Kelly commercial isn’t the first to attack Protasiewicz’s sentencing record. Wisconsin Manufacturers & Commerce, the state’s largest business association, launched an ad campaign highlighting multiple convicted rapists and pedophiles who received light sentences from Protasiewicz.
More.
“And you’re alluding to what?” he smirked, knowing full well what I was alluding to.
“Dr. Frankenstein creates a monster, then loses control of the monster, and then the monster ends up killing him,” I reminded him. “You know the parallel I’m making …”
He chuckled. “Let’s put the country first rather than worry about any personalities or any type of individual … at the end of the day, I’m a vessel for the aspirations of the people I represent. It’s not about me — as Ronald Reagan said, ‘There’s no limit to what you can accomplish if you don’t care who gets the credit.’ ”
“That’s true,” I replied, “but you’re up against somebody who definitely cares who gets the credit, and who’s desperate to want to win back the White House.”
More.
3) The "zombie" timing.
Bragg's indictment, if it comes, is often referred to as a "zombie" case
because federal officials earlier declined to prosecute Trump on these
grounds, and then Bragg himself considered and rejected a prosecution on
the same grounds. Now, with time running out on the statute of
limitations and to charge Trump before the 2024 presidential campaign is
fully underway, Bragg has flip-flopped. The "zombie" case has been
revived and is apparently going full speed ahead.
The yield curve aggregate averaged 4.674 on March 8. Now it averages 4.017.
Bills yields fell from an average 5.09 to 4.52 in nine days, 11%, after rising 6.5% in the month 2/8 to 3/8.
Notes yields fell from 4.45 to 3.55, a whopping 20%, after rising over 12% in the month after 2/8.
Bonds yields fell from 4.00 to 3.68, 8%, after rising nearly 6% in the month after 2/8.
It's been extremely difficult to trade the volatility. $TLT is up 5.31% ytd., but $AGG is up just 1.99% ytd. It is a fool's errand to invest in bonds when they behave like stocks.
Meanwhile $SPX is up 2.42% ytd.
This is my opinion, not advice.
A bank would normally keep AAA assets happily, and hold them to maturity in many instances.
Having to sell them in a rising interest rate environment is where all hell can break loose.
No one wants to buy a UST paying 0.89% when T-bills pay 4.5%, so you have to sell it at a loss to raise cash.
A bank without cash is a failed bank.
Be kind to your banker. He's not having a good week. Even if he didn't pay you interest like he should have since 2008.
We don't have 500 bank failures.
What we do have is Dodd-Frank 2010 limits on deposit insurance not keeping up with 2023 realities.
Unless Congress steps in and helps high depositors, there will be an exodus of high depositor accounts all across the country to money center banks which have too big to fail status and an FDIC put as systemically important enough to backstop.
This would mean many local banks will come under stress and at minimum weaken local economies even if they don't fail.
We do not need the big banks to become any more powerful than they already are.
And we certainly must not weaken local economies.
The reasons in the plumbing don't matter at this point. It's too late for that.
The $250k limit has to change. The authorities at the Fed, Treasury, and FDIC are constrained by that in what it is permissible for them to do.
Call your Senator.
Call your Representative.
A 2021 McKinsey study found that women leaders, compared with men at their same level, were about twice as likely to spend substantial time on collaborative efforts that fell outside their formal job.
We need less of that, not more, Heidi.
And the kernel there is pretending things that are not true, the mark of an unserious country.
Nikki Haley is simply incoherent. She says we have to win this war, but without more financial assistance.
“I don’t think we need to put money in Ukraine,” Haley said last week before an audience in Iowa. ... “This is not a war about Ukraine, this is a war about freedom—and it’s one that we have to win,” Haley said. “If we win this war, this will send a message to China, it will send a message to Iran, it will send a message to North Korea, it will send a message to Russia. If we lose this war… they said Poland and the Baltics are next, and you’re looking at a world war.”
Ron DeSantis pretends Russia never invaded and simply has a territorial dispute with Ukraine.
“While the U.S. has many vital national interests—securing our borders, addressing the crisis of readiness within our military, achieving energy security and independence, and checking the economic, cultural, and military power of the Chinese Communist Party—becoming further entangled in a territorial dispute between Ukraine and Russia is not one of them,” DeSantis told Fox News host Tucker Carlson this week.
And The Daily Beast isn't wrong about Donald Trump's position, who to this day touts the myth that he is some great deal-maker who can untie the Gordian Knot:
Former President Donald Trump has said he would have let Russia “take over” parts of Ukraine if he were still in the White House.
It is also the case that there is plenty of pretending on the other side, that the West wasn't responsible for the Ukrainian revolution of 2014 which ultimately provoked the current conflict.
Statesmen tell hard truths to their people. But none of ours seem capable of telling even the simple ones, including Joe Biden.
Services inflation is driving inflation now, 7.6% year over year in February. In a primarily service economy that's deeply serious. Wage and salary increases have penetrated deeply into everything, driving up the cost of using the services those people provide.
Electricity inflation is running at 12.9% year over year.
Food inflation is still running at 9.5% year over year.
Overall core inflation in this data is at 5.5% year over year, more than double than under Trump.
The story is here.
As recently as the end of January, Moody's had rated Signature Bank, the bank which failed spectacularly over the weekend, investment grade.
Moody's completely missed the problems with Signature.
Their sweeping warnings in the wake of this miss should be taken with a truckload of salt. They're just trying to save face.
Chickens . . . comin' home . . . to roost!
Studies have found the Dodd–Frank Act has improved financial stability . . . lol
$1.8 billion.
That sparked the run.
The problems have been known for months by people like Chris Whalen.
This guy below actually tweeted out some particulars in January. This was no surprise.
Except to the federal regulators, who were completely asleep at the switch.
This is what happens when your bond portfolio is full of low-yielding securities. No one wants them when you have to sell them in the new higher interest rate environment. It's not a problem if you will "hold to maturity".
SVB wasn't very smart loading up on this stuff. Apparently they did not even hedge this otherwise foolish over-large position.
Hell, it's probably all California MBS, too. Think the outrageously overpriced homes, refinanced at rock bottom rates, of the very elite who have all their personal and business banking at SVB which is now blowing up. And all the second tier businesses and their employees dependent on them.
It's an inferno devouring their wealth from every side.
And they are screaming like stuck pigs for a bailout.
Xi Jinpingpong blamed the US for the first time for his domestic failures, according to the Wall Street Journal. He's a commie reactionary with Chinese characteristics. Not a good sign of what's to come.
Some cracker Republican in Florida wants bloggers to register like lobbyists, and Ron DeSantis finally came out against that, thankfully. A little late, though. Newt beat him to it.
Vivek Ramaswamy says CPAC shook him down for $$$$ in exchange for which they'd see to it he did better in the straw poll. There's no report that Matt Schlapp also asked for a reach-around.
LIBOR surpassed 5% for the first time in 15 years on Monday.
Georgia fired up a nuclear power reactor this week. The country now has 93 operating. 67 were never finished after Three Mile Island.
A dog and her pups were rescued alive and well from a basement in Turkey more than a month after the Feb 6 earthquake. The death toll is up to 52k.
Thousands of Iranian schoolgirls are being systematically poisoned in Iran. There was a similar incident in Afghanistan during the first Obama administration. Rag-headed heathen bastards.
South Africa is going the way of Rhodesia.
The UST yield curve aggregate made a new high 4.674% Wednesday v Fed Funds Effective Rate 4.57.
The Obama of Big Oil said peak production from 2019 will never be surpassed.
Pundits who predict inflation won't spiral like the 1970s fail to understand that the price of energy inputs is determinative. Unless energy costs come down big, we're in for it.
Cumulative deaths per million from C-19 in the US are 3,285. In Africa just 181. Follow the science.
The tide is turning on the Wuhan Lab Leak Theory of the origin of C-19 in the press.
Anthony Fauci has authored a paper in CELL which calls for better vaccines than the ones we've got, whether experimental or not. No kidding.
Silicon Valley Bank failed today, the first failure since 2020 when there were four. There was a huge flight to safety. Stocks sold off and longer dated Treasuries rallied 3.45%. The yield curve aggregate plunged 230bp, 3.82%.
Full time employment rose a little in Feb to 49.66% of civilian population. The average last year was 50.1%.
The crime bill passed the D.C. City Council unanimously in January. After Washington D.C. Mayor Muriel Bowser (D) vetoed it, the city council overrode it 12-1. Among other things, the bill would eliminate most mandatory sentences and lower penalties for a number of violent offenses, including carjackings and robberies. It would also expand the requirement for jury trials in most misdemeanor cases.
More.
"typically"
"more common"
"separate"
"avoided"
"generally"