Extra! Extra! Read all about it! Supremes rule 6-3 that IEEPA law does not permit Trump's tariffs on the world, Thomas, Alito, and Kavanaugh dissenting

Supreme Court strikes down Trump tariffs, rebuking president’s signature policy

... Many of those tariffs were invoked using a novel reading of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, or IEEPA. They include Trump’s near-global “reciprocal” tariffs, and separate duties related to the alleged trafficking of deadly drugs into the U.S.

The IEEPA does not explicitly mention tariffs, as the Supreme Court noted Friday. Instead, it allows the president to “regulate … importation” of foreign property transactions after declaring a national emergency in order to deal with certain “unusual and extraordinary” threats.

The Trump administration has argued that language empowers the president to impose tariffs on foreign goods.

Critics charged that the law does not permit the president to unilaterally impose levies of any size on any country at any time. A federal trade court and a federal appeals court both found Trump’s IEEPA tariffs illegal before the Supreme Court took up the case. ...

 

Trump tariff refunds: What to expect as fight for billions begins

 

What Supreme Court ruling against Trump tariffs means for your money  

 

Supreme Court Trump tariffs ruling could put U.S. on hook for $175 billion in refunds, estimate says

 

After Trump’s ‘reciprocal’ tariffs, here are sectors still facing higher rates

 

Retail industry says Trump tariff reversal will bring much-needed predictability

 

Small furniture retailers face existential tariff threat, despite Supreme Court ruling

 

U.S. trading partners cheer Supreme Court tariff ruling — but businesses must still navigate ‘murky waters’

 

Democrats rejoice in Supreme Court rebuke of Trump tariffs    

 

GDP in 2025 would be double what it is had economic growth continued after 1984 at the 1929-1984 compound annual rate of 6.869%

 Nominal GDP in 2025 would be $61.524 trillion instead of $30.778 trillion had economic growth continued at the 55-year 1929-1984 compound annual rate of 6.869%.

That's the difference the 26% reduction in the growth rate to 5.079% has made in the 41 years since 1984.

The compound annual growth rate since the Trump tax reform from 2017 has been slightly, but not a lot, better at 5.795% on an annual basis. Measured 4Q on 4Q over the 8 years the compound annual rate is a little better still at 5.814%. 

Meanwhile the seasonally adjusted annual rate of real GDP growth fell from 4.4% in 3Q2025 to 1.4% in 4Q2025 in today's report: 

Fourth-quarter U.S. GDP rose just 1.4%, badly missing estimate; inflation firms at 3%

American leadership continues to avoid the elephant in the living room of economic growth.

1984 marked the turn, contrary to Ronald Reagan, when America's best days truly were behind her, and economic growth then hit the big brick wall after 2007 and nothing anyone has done has fixed it.

In the 78 years to 2007 nominal GDP (GDPA) grew at a compound annual rate of 6.525%, but only at 4.281% in the 18 years since then.

The corresponding real values are 3.448%, and . . . just 1.982%.

Yes, that's right. Real GDP (GDPCA) has been growing at sub-2% since 2007. 

Politicians who talk up economic growth aspire to better days but do not deliver.

The first step to authentic economic recovery means admitting that you have a problem. 

 

Core pce inflation, the Fed's key inflation indicator, went to 2.996% year over year in December 2025, the highest reading since April 2024, 2025 comes in at 2.8%, 65% elevated above the 2000-2020 average of 1.7%

Does anyone in leadership really care about what this persistent high inflation is doing to America?

 

In Jeffrey Epstein news from the UK, Prince Andrew is not the face of Islam

 

Lawmakers could spare us a lot of Sturm und Drang simply by raising the full retirement age gradually from 67 to 69 and upping the payroll tax by two points, just like we did in the 1980s

 The payroll tax went from almost 10% to 12.4% between 1977 and 1990, where it has been the whole time until now (except in 2011 and 2012 under that damn fool Obama).

The full retirement age was also raised in 1983 from 65 to 67, on a schedule starting in 2000 and just concluding this year.

Time to do it again. 

AI agrees that raising the full retirement age gradually from 67 to 69, also allowing about 17-years to start the process, and immediately commencing increases to the payroll tax by 2 full points from 12.4% to 14.4% will guarantee the Social Security scheme through the end of this century.

Do it now, Congress.

This is the cleanest way. 

 

 

 

These people are as phony as the day is long

 

 

Kennedy defends Trump glyphosate order; MAHA erupts as midterms approach

 ... But Kennedy’s MAHA coalition that supported Trump in the 2024 presidential election hates glyphosate, which has been alleged to cause cancer in myriad lawsuits. Now, the executive order threatens to unravel that coalition ahead of the 2026 midterm elections that could loosen the president’s grip on Washington. ...  

The massive trade deficits were the main reason Trump instituted his equally massive tariffs to eliminate them, but they're still here lol

 

 U.S. trade deficit totaled $901 billion in 2025, barely budging despite Trump’s tariffs

The U.S. trade deficit swelled in December, closing out a year in which the imbalance was essentially unchanged despite efforts by the Trump administration to close the wide gap.

Closing out a tumultuous year in the global marketplace, the goods and services shortfall in December totaled $70.3 billion, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. That marked an increase of $17.3 billion from November and was well above the Dow Jones consensus estimate of $55.5 billion.

For the full year, the U.S. ran a $901.5 billion deficit, down slightly from 2024 but only by 0.2%, or $2.1 billion. The total was also a bit less than the record $923.7 billion shortfall in 2022.

The report follows a year in which President Donald Trump implemented a series of aggressive tariffs aimed at leveling the global playing field. In April, Trump announced an across-the-board duty of 10% on all imports as well as so-called reciprocal tariffs aimed at specific countries that had run up surpluses against the U.S.

However, during the course of the year Trump softened many of those positions, and negotiations with major trading partners are ongoing.

In an effort to get ahead of the tariffs, companies front-loaded imports during the first three months of the year. The trend abated following the early effort, with October registering the lowest monthly deficit since 2009.

The U.S. had its largest goods deficit with the European Union, at $218.8 billion, followed by China, at $202.1 billion, and Mexico, at $196.9 billion.

Exports for 2025 totaled $3.43 trillion for all of 2025, up $199.8 billion from 2024. Imports also rose, totaling $4.33 trillion, an increase of $197.8 billion.

White House economic advisor Kevin Hassett, thankfully passed over for Fed chair, wants NY Fed authors punished for tariff paper he disagrees with

What a jerk. 

 Hassett says authors of New York Fed tariff study should be disciplined: ‘Worst paper I’ve ever seen’

... The people associated with this paper should presumably be disciplined ... 

 

 

It's OK when I do it: Hypocritical Trump lauds $36 billion Japanese investment in U.S. oil and gas, one week ago bashed Reagan era $25 billion equivalent in U.S. automotive sector

But Trump's sin could end up dwarfing Reagan's by 22 times. 

 

 Trump lauds Japan’s pledge to invest $36 billion in U.S. oil, gas and critical mineral projects

U.S. President Donald Trump has welcomed Japan’s pledge to invest nearly $36 billion in oil, gas and critical mineral projects in Texas, Ohio and Georgia. 

The commitment represents the first tranche of investments by Japan following a landmark trade deal between the two countries, one in which Tokyo pledged to invest $550 billion in American-based projects and Trump cut tariffs on most Japanese imports to 15%. ...

 

Trump expands the police state by bribing local police with monies from the Big Ugly Bill in exchange for help enforcing immigration law

 The Supreme Court slapped down Arizona in 2012 for trying to enforce its border with Mexico when Obama wouldn't do it.

Will they slap this down? 

Agreements that allow local police to work with ICE skyrocket

Agreements between Immigration and Customs Enforcement and local law enforcement that allow officers to make federal immigration arrests have increased by 950% in the first year of President Donald Trump’s second term, according to a new analysis of ICE data.

As of Jan. 26, there were 1,168 agencies with officers trained to help ICE, up from 135 during the Biden administration and 150 at the end of Trump’s first term, according to the analysis by FWD.US, a nonpartisan policy organization.

The Trump administration has called on local law enforcement to support its growing deportation operations nationwide, reviving a controversial “task force” model that allows local police officers to be deputized by ICE to stop people and make arrests based on suspicion that someone is in the country illegally. ...

ICE’s advertising for the program promised to give law enforcement agencies $7,500 for equipment per trained officer; $100,000 for new vehicles and overtime pay of up to 25% of an officer’s salary.

The analysis shows 39 states have policing agencies now participating, but didn’t give the total number of officers now working with ICE.

The states with the most participating agencies were Florida, with 342 agreements, Texas, with 296 agreements, Tennessee, with 63 agreements, Pennsylvania, with 58 agreements and Alabama with 52 agreements, according to the analysis by FWD.US, which advocates for immigration and criminal justice reforms.

State and local police agencies and sheriffs departments potentially stand to gain between $1.4 billion and $2 billion this year if they agree to participate because of the large infusion of cash from Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill, the organization predicted.

“This amount would dwarf all other federal funding for local law enforcement,” the FWD.US report found. ...

 

Well thank God it's not Rio Linda

The one US town where residents live significantly longer...

The warning signs were a lot older than a few days

 https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-15566063/Robert-Dorgan-gunman-hockey-Rhode-Island-warning-signs.html

Presidents' Day LOL

 

I guess the White House couldn't find a photo of the president appearing to be actually happy

 

The CBO forecasted last week that we will be $64 trillion in debt by 2036

 ... In CBO’s baseline projections, whereas debt held by the public increases by $24 trillion from the end of 2026 to the end of 2036, debt held by government accounts remains relatively stable, averaging $7 trillion over the next decade. As a result, gross federal debt is also projected to rise by $24 trillion over that period, reaching $64 trillion at the end of 2036. Debt held by government accounts makes up 12 percent of that sum. ...

More (page 18).

Spending: Wei Tu Hai

Taxes: Wei Tu Lo

 

The cost of making a banana bread at home for breakfast spiked 57% in 2023 and 70% in 2025 from Jan 2020, and is still up 31% in Jan 2026

The ingredients in the data below come from the Gold Medal Flour Best-Ever Banana Bread recipe printed on the package, minus the (small amounts of):

vanilla (1 teaspoon), baking soda (1 teaspoon), salt (1 teaspoon), and the nuts (1 cup, optional anyway), for which I do not have the data.

Gold up 16.75% ytd, silver up 8.11%

 

New York firewood supplier sold face cord equivalents, 8'x4'x16", for $493 during recent winter cold snap

 Shivering Americans Snap Up Firewood as Winter Grinds On...

 ... On Jan. 24, the day before a winter storm buried much of the Northeast in snow, Woodbourne Firewood had its highest-grossing sales day in the history of the company, which was started in New York in 2022, said Mr. Heby, 35, the owner. He said the company sold seven full cords of wood, units that are eight feet long, four feet tall and four feet deep, enough to fill a tractor-trailer and generating $10,356 in revenue in one day. ... Grahm Leitner, 48, a logging contractor and forester from Waterbury, Vt., said the number of days spent logging in a given year is about half of what it was in the 1980s, especially because of climate change. ...

 

It could be worse: If the average price of coffee in this chart had kept up with inflation since Jan 1980, the average price in Jan 2026 would be $13.42 instead of $9.37

 Soaring coffee prices rewrite daily routines...

 ... Coffee prices in the U.S. were up 18.3% in January from a year ago, according to the latest Consumer Price Index released on Friday. Over five years, the government reported, coffee prices rose 47%. ...

 

The cost of a traditional American breakfast in Jan 2026 is up 55.3% since Jan 2020

 Menu:

 

Coffee with milk

Bacon and eggs

Toast with butter

Orange juice