Friday, April 8, 2016

And the right is paranoid, too, this week: Michigan's Steve Gruber repeats hysterical Yellowstone supervolcano story

Yesterday on his show Michigan's Steve Gruber uncritically read from this dark story, which has several iterations on the internet featuring a lurid "sea of red" map of earthquakes in Yellowstone, from which this claim:

So why are the public seismographs from the US Geological Survey (USGS) OFFLINE (to the public) today?  No one is providing any answers.

Even more peculiar, the privately-funded seismographs from the University of Utah . . . are also OFFLINE (to the public) right now.  No one is providing any explanation for this either.

The USGS page here showing earthquakes as recent as yesterday in Yellowstone features this box, with dead links to the University of Utah Seismograph Stations page here:















So what's up with that?

Well, just click "home" and the University of Utah Seismograph Stations page tells you:

UUSS has launched a redesigned website! Please visit us at http://www.seis.utah.edu  (http://quake.utah.edu ) to check out the new features.

Obviously, the government page at USGS hasn't been updated yet. Government moves slowly, and often incompetently. No news there.

Also at the Univ. of Utah home page you'll see this map of reality:





















Not this scary beast, which appears to be an historical map of all events over a long period of time:





















Paranoia will destroy ya.

Salon post on Michael Savage fizzles at the end

The piece by Robert Hennelly does a fair job of laying out the Savage oeuvre, only to show exhaustion at the end and descend into dark speculation that Savage wants part of the country to secede.

Paranoia will destroy ya.

Thursday, April 7, 2016

Rush Limbaugh seriously wants you to believe Obama is trying to help Trump by attacking him


Call it the Claire McCaskill strategy: Make sure Hillary's got someone to run against that she can beat, like Claire beat Todd Akin.

That, folks, is how much Rush Limbaugh wants Ted Cruz to be the candidate, not Trump.


Marist poll finds 53% think the middle class is dead

Here and here:

[A] majority of Americans, 53%, believe the middle class is dead. There are now only those who are struggling and those who are not. 44% disagree and believe a strong middle class remains in the United States. Racial differences are seen here, as well. When it comes to the state of the nation’s middle class, a majority of non-whites, 52%, think the middle class is still strong while only 40% of whites agree.





Hey Ted, a dinosaur communist beat you in Wisconsin!

Bernie Sanders: 567,936
Ted Cruz:           531,129

Cheating Trump of the nomination and discriminating against his supporters is Republican suicide

So says Conrad Black, here.

Trump support mirrored by the growth of the 1099 worker as corporate greed turns the Buchanan Brigades into Trump's FU Army

From David Dayen in The New Republic here:

But The New York Times’s Neil Irwin might have found an answer [to the anger out there] last week, when he pointed to eye-opening new research from Princeton’s Alan Krueger and Harvard’s Lawrence Katz on Americans in alternative work arrangements, which they defined as “temporary help agency workers, on-call workers, contract workers, and independent contractors or freelancers.” This cohort of the workforce grew from 10.1 percent in 2005 to 15.8 percent at the end of 2015, representing an increase of 9.4 million workers. That’s all of the growth in the labor market over the past decade. ...  “Angry” voters may simply be angry workers tossed into the Darwinian world of the modern economy, operating without any fallback support from their employers or their government. This was bound to find its way into our politics, but though solutions for these workers exist, nobody is talking about them.


At 8.2 million after 32 contests, the popular vote for Trump alone with 16 states yet to vote is set to surpass 12 million.

Wednesday, April 6, 2016

Rush makes a ring composition of today's lyin' show, featuring at the end Ted Cruz lying about the last four contests

Claiming Trump has lost them all.

If Cruz can't count to four, he's not qualified to be president.

North Dakota doesn't count because delegates are unbound with 18 uncommitted, and Trump won Arizona.

Lyin' Rush Limbaugh repeats the false narrative to shape perceptions more favorably for Ted Cruz

He just repeated the false narrative that Trump hasn't won anything in a month, that Trump has lost the last four or five contests.

In the last month Trump has lost two to Cruz: Wisconsin and Utah. But Trump won Arizona and the Northern Marianas.

Prior to Utah, the only thing Cruz has won outright was Idaho, way back on March 8. North Dakota was not a win.

Liar.

The number of Democrats crossing over to vote Republican yesterday in Wisconsin appears to have been relatively small, unmoved by Trump's trade stand

From Politico here:

While 65 percent of those voting in the Republican open primary identified as Republican, another 29 percent said they were independent and 6 percent said Democratic.

Turnout in the Republican primary in Wisconsin was enormous.

In 2008, barely 403,000 voted in the primary which picked McCain over Huckabee.

Yesterday, 1.06 million reportedly voted in the Republican contest won by Ted Cruz, with some votes still remaining to be counted.

Six percent of that is 64,000 Democrats.

In the Democrat contest won by Bernie Sanders, 993,000 votes were cast, about 120,000 fewer than in the 2008 contest between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton. So only half of the no-shows might have gone Republican.

The voters worried about free-trade whom Donald Trump hoped to attract went instead to Bernie Sanders in Wisconsin:

Demonstrating Sanders’ unusual strength, he ran competitively with Clinton, 51-47 percent, in who’d be the best commander-in-chief. And he won by particularly wide margins among those very worried about the economy’s direction, those who expect life for the next generation of Americans to be worse than it is today and those who think trade with other countries takes away U.S. jobs. Finally, he won 78 percent of those who favor more liberal policies than Barack Obama’s; Clinton won those who want to continue Obama’s policies, but by less of a margin. ...

Trade was a potent issue for Sanders in his surprise win in Michigan and helped him make Missouri and Illinois agonizingly close, though, Clinton turned things around in Ohio. In Wisconsin, more than four in 10 think trade takes away more American jobs, while fewer than four in 10 think it creates more jobs.

As with Michigan, ARG poll got Wisconsin massively wrong, predicting Trump +10 when it was Cruz +13


Ted Cruz wins the lesbian vote in Wisconsin, slows Trump momentum by less than 4%

On the most generous interpretation of the delegate allocation, Trump goes from needing 488 additional delegates before Wisconsin to needing 482 now. This assumes he still gets 12 more from foot-dragging Missouri and 3 in Wisconsin not yet shown (total 6) for a total of 755 vs. 749. He goes from needing 53.2% of remaining delegates to needing 55.2%, the two-point difference representing a slowdown in momentum of not quite 3.8%.

Using the same assumptions, Cruz goes from needing 762 before Wisconsin to needing 720 now, or from needing 83% of available delegates before to needing 82.5% now. That's not even a 1% pick-up in speed.

Going forward, Trump momentum is bound to pick-up as the race heads east to Trump's backyard, where Cruz will have trouble attracting votes from New York values voters.

Kasich, however, could continue to be a problem for Trump in the more liberal east, but interestingly he came in a distant third everywhere in Wisconsin and won nothing. Even in liberal congressional district 2, which includes Madison and had Tammy Baldwin as its Democrat representative, Kasich came in a distant third.

Cruz narrowly bested Trump in CD-2 by fewer than 2900 votes.


Tuesday, April 5, 2016

With 34% of precincts reporting, 2016 Wisconsin GOP presidential primary turnout already exceeds total in 2008


Wisconsin Republicans are totally in the tank for a path to legalization, which is lyin' Ted Cruz' true position, also Gov. Walker's

From the exit polling, here:

More than six in 10 GOP voters in Wisconsin think undocumented immigrants should be offered a path to legal status, on track to be the highest of any state this year (it’s topped out at 59 percent in Virginia). Only a third support deporting undocumented immigrants, fewer than in previous primaries. Deportation voters have been a strong group for Trump in previous primaries; Cruz beat Trump in recent contests (North Carolina, Missouri and Illinois) among the larger group that favors a path to legal status, and Kasich won them in Ohio.

If Ted Cruz wins Wisconsin tonight, it'll be nothing more than a dead cat bounce

Ted Cruz' momentum collapsed by 44% in March.

He was dead weeks ago. He just doesn't know it yet.

Libertarian Club for Growth really did hit up Trump for $1 million in June 2015, now it spends millions attacking him

So, Michelle Field's mom is Honduran born and runs a nonprofit for illegal aliens

Michelle Fields may have a very strong and until now secret motive to try to bring down Trump.

Rush says Trump's already trying to change the subject from his impending loss today to new immigration plan details

What rubbish. That must be the OxyContin talkin'.

Trump's detailed proposals have been out there since August 2015, on his website.

Hey Wisconsin, Make America Red Again!