Average US Treasury yields by duration Fri Sep 5, 2025:
Bills 3.96
Notes 3.69
Bonds 4.75
Aggregate 3.98 (down 4.5% from Aug average).
The aggregate was already down 6.5% from January in August. The only yields still holding up had been in bonds, which gave up 11 basis points on Friday, yielding 4.75 vs. the August average of 4.86, down about 2.2%.
The rosy scenario, which isn't rosy, is for stagflation. The worse scenario is for recession, possibly signaled by the revision to June payrolls, now down 13k.
You know, like in January 2001, but past performance is no guarantee of future results.
The point is, people are spooked.
