Doug Short updates his regression analysis for the S&P500, adjusted for inflation, to come up with the S&P500 today about 80% above the long term trend going back to 1871:
"If the current S&P 500 were sitting squarely on the regression, it would be around the 1005 level. If the index should decline over the next few years to a level comparable to previous major bottoms, it would fall to the 450-500 range."
Charts and discussion here.
