It is often forgotten that retired people are classified as not in the labor force. The measure of those "Not in labor force" has grown to a staggering all time high of 92.338 million, not-seasonally-adjusted, as of December 2013.
Between 2009 and 2013 alone, the figure has grown by 11.05 million, and people like Rush Limbaugh thump loudly about all these people "not working" because of the bad economy.
The question is, though, how many of these are retirements?
I say it's theoretically possible that all of them are.
Those turning 66 years of age each year from 2009-2013 were born between 1943 and 1947.
And here are births from 1943 to 1947:
3.1 million 1943
2.9 million 1944
2.9 million 1945
3.4 million 1946
3.8 million 1947.
How many of these survived to age 66?
The CDC publishes annually the life tables, the latest of which came out a few days ago for the year 2009. A person aged 63 in 2009 (born in 1946) was among the 86% who survived to 63, according to the tables. In the 2008 tables from a year ago, that same person at age 62 was among the 87% who survived to 62. In the 2007 tables at 61 he was among the 88% who survived to 61. Extrapolating forward to 2012, we will estimate that at 66 he was among the 83% who survived.
So for persons born earlier than 1946 we can estimate their survival rate as follows:
Born in 1943, retiring at 66 in 2009: 80% survive, or 2.48 million
Born in 1944, retiring at 66 in 2010: 81% survive, or 2.35 million
Born in 1945, retiring at 66 in 2011: 82% survive, or 2.38 million
Born in 1946, retiring at 66 in 2012: 83% survive, or 2.82 million
Born in 1947, retiring at 66 in 2013: 84% survive, or 3.19 million.
Total theoretically possible retirees: 13.22 million, 2.17 million more than actually left the labor force.
Obviously, not everyone retires at 66. Some keep working. And especially these days some keep working because they have to. The employment level of the 55 and over set has grown by 4.5 million over the period 2009-2013.
It appears to be the case, however, that an even larger number are deferring both Social Security benefits and work because they can afford to: Social Security reports that retired workers and their dependents receiving benefits grew only 5.6 million from the end of 2008 to the end of 2013.
Of the 11.05 million added to "not in labor force", I'd estimate at least 5.4 million are well off enough to forgo both work and Social Security until they reach age 70, and perhaps more than that if Social Security recipients who continue to work according to the rules are counted instead as part of the labor force.
