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"If we don't cover it, it didn't happen".
Tuesday, February 25, 2025
Monday, February 24, 2025
In the aggregate US Treasury yields haven't moved much since the end of November, after which duration began to normalize, but looky here
On Nov 29, 2024 the yield curve averaged 4.356 in the aggregate, after which we began to see duration normalize.
On Feb 21, 2025 it averages 4.357.
Now, however, there are seven securities in the Bills category, not just six, with Treasury rolling out the new 1.5-month (6-week) security as part of debt-ceiling-forced "extraordinary measures". There are five in the Notes, and two in the Bonds.
Duration normalization has now partly reversed because of the extraordinary measures, at least on a weekly basis, with yields for Notes once again falling below those for Bills on average on Friday.
If you count just the traditional 1MO, 3MO, 6MO, and 1Y among the Bills, the Bills yield average is nearly identical to Notes at 4.2825.
These falling yields may be both signaling and spurring increased purchasing of UST, including among the Notes to lock in an anticipated disappearance of opportunity as Bills issuance surges to fund the Treasury General Account. The increased issuance of Bills means yields fall across the curve, at least temporarily, as investors lock in.
The special 6-week security rolled out at 4.41 on 2/18 and was paying 4.39 on Friday vs. only 4.15 for the 1Y and 4.42 for the 10Y, the latter's lowest yield all month. Falling yields for the 10Y is a specific goal of the Treasury under Trump. Evidently the temporary 6-week Bill is helping them achieve that . . . for now.
Reported Feb 5 and Feb 6:
Bessent's focus on 10-year US Treasury yield may let Fed off the hook
..."The president wants lower interest rates and ... in my talks with him, he and I are focused on the 10-year Treasury," Bessent said. "He is not calling on the Fed to lower rates. He believes that if we ... deregulate the economy, if we get this tax bill done, if we get energy down, then rates will take care of themselves and the dollar will take care of itself." ...
10-year Treasury yield drops as traders digest news on issuance, fresh data
... The [Treasury] department also said it will be issuing more short-term bills than usual as it uses “extraordinary measures” to keep the government operating while Congress battles over the debt limit. That announcement came despite new Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent previously criticizing his predecessor, Janet Yellen, for issuing unusually large amounts of shorter-term debt. ...
Nutball worlds in collision: Trumpism defends freedom in Europe with its right hand, stabs it in the back in Ukraine with its left, Biden defended freedom in Ukraine with his right, attacked it in America with his left
But The Federalist has its blinders on. Biden baaaaaaad! Trump gooooood!
"Let's see if we can find some naive kid to write a story about it!"
By Defending Free Speech Worldwide, Team Trump Reclaims America’s Global Moral High Ground:
Under President Donald Trump, the suppression of natural rights by Western powers will no longer be ignored by the United States.
Yep, J. D. Vance goes to Europe to beat up on our friends. But suppression of freedom will be ignored, in places like Russia, Saudi Arabia, and China. And above all in Ukraine.
This is the essence of libertarianism: Make the good the enemy of the perfect.
But defending freedom where it really counts would take some courage, and they don't have it.
The author of this article, who graduated from college in 2022 with a BA in political "science", ends it touting the execrable Darren Beattie at Marco Rubio's State Department, a Taiwan surrender monkey.
The article is the second in the queue at Real Clear Politics this morning. One goes there looking for some serious editorial judgment and gets this.
Trump/Vance don't have the moral high ground. They are just the cowardly other side of the same old hypocritical American coin.
Trump appoints another election loser
Ex-Secret Service agent and conservative media personality Dan Bongino picked as FBI deputy director
... Bongino ran for a U.S. Senate seat in Maryland in 2012 and for congressional seats in 2014 and 2016 in Maryland and Florida, after moving in 2015. He lost the three races. ...
Sunday, February 23, 2025
Ironically enough, Kash Patel at FBI might, might turn out to be resistance
FBI Nominee Kash Patel Warned Elon Musk Is Becoming "One Ginormous Trust"
Kash Patel ripped into Elon Musk in unearthed podcast episodes
... “So, what scares me is, like,” Patel continued, “you wanna talk about a monopoly? It is the ultimate monopoly. Is he going to execute the businesses and allow others to compete? On free speech platforms, that is? Is he just going to buy everything up, and then become one ginormous trust—for lack of a better word, a monopoly—which is supposedly illegal under antitrust laws?” MAGA stalwarts such as Vice President J.D. Vance have been vehemently against monopolistic behavior and Trump even ran on a quasi-anti-trust platform. ...
“What's he going to do with all the data? That's my concern,” Patel said. “The data collection — he's got a global wifi satellite system, in space, for the world: Starlink. He has Tesla, he has, as I said, the SpaceX program, and now he'll have Twitter.” ...
“Do you allow the CCP to have backdoors? Like other companies, like TikTok, has done in the past, and sell Americans’ data? Or provide Americans data directly to the CCP for future use against American and American interests? Those are questions that people should be asking, I think, rather than fixating on the ups or downs of Elon buying Twitter,” Patel said. ...
In one post from July 2023, Patel accused Musk of being “big tech colluding with our government to censor our elections,” adding: “Your cheap Titter [sic] posts and your Mickey Mouse clown droppings do not absolve you,” as first reported by The Daily Beast. “You are as bad as FBI/DOJ n you and are making millions from the disinformation campaigns. You are a complete and total fake who cares only about $.” ...
Kash Patel Tells FBI Staff To Ignore Elon Musk's Demand: Report
The new Director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) Kash Patel has reportedly told the agency's staff to ignore Elon Musk's request to justify their work or lose their jobs.
"For now, please pause any responses," reads a message sent by Patel on Saturday to all FBI personnel, calling for employees to wait for a coordinated response from the bureau. ...
Now the Trump administration is imitating the most odious revolutionary rhetoric of the Obama administration
We are fundamentally transforming our country for the better, truly restoring our government, the 27-year old know-nothing says, when they're actually gutting it.
These people all think they're so smart.
They think they're cutting something down to size which is already on its knees. Federal employment today has hardly been lower as a percentage of civilian population in the post-war. The low point was achieved already in 2018. The Leviathan State is a complete myth.
If Trump truly restored our government, he'd be hiring dramatically, not firing.
For all of Trump’s and Musk’s talk of efficiency, their policies will likely slow down the government. The state needs capacity to perform core tasks, such as collecting revenue, taking care of veterans, tracking weather, and ensuring that travel, medicine, food, and workplaces are safe. But Trump seems intent on pushing more employees to leave and making the civil service more political and an even less inviting job option. He bullies federal employees, labeling them as “crooked” and likening their removal to “getting rid of all the cancer.” A smaller, terrified, and politicized public workforce will not be an effective one.
To start, let’s dispense with the notion that the government is too big. It is not. As a share of the workforce, federal employment has declined in the past several decades. Civilian employees represent about 1.5 percent of the population and account for less than 7 percent of total government spending. According to the nonpartisan Partnership for Public Service, seven out of 10 civilian employees work in organizations that deal with national security, including departments—such as Veterans Affairs and Homeland Security—that the public supports.
The reality is that the federal government has long faced a human-capital crisis. ...
More.
The country is $36 trillion in debt because it is not taxing enough, and hasn't been taxing enough since Ronald Reagan. We pretend we can borrow to infinity for what we want, but we can't afford it all anymore. That is why they're surrendering to Putin, and taking a meat cleaver to DC.
This is not a serious country, otherwise a South African wouldn't be running it.
In his Feb 21 debate with the conservative historian Niall Ferguson, J. D. Vance said Trump was trying to achieve a lasting piece of Ukraine lol
A very unfortunate but accurate Freudian slip.
And the idea that "we're not going to telegraph our negotiating posture" is just laughable on its face. The administration has publicly said Ukraine won't get any land back and will not become part of NATO, both of which are concessions before negotiations have even begun.
These people are a joke, a very bad joke.
Saturday, February 22, 2025
The Putin-Trump Piece Plan demonstrates that neither Russia nor America has any respect whatsover for Ukraine's property
Left is, finally and above all, lack of respect for property.
-- Oswald Spengler, The Hour of Decision, 1934
A purported descendant of Patrick Henry and James Madison blasted The Tyrant Trump in GA-7 townhall represented by Rich McCormick
Trump’s first weeks in office have been characterized by a string of successful Cabinet nominations and a relentless testing of executive power and governing norms. Many critics saw Trump’s social media declaration “Long live the King!’ as emblematic of that approach.
That was certainly the case when Rep. Rich McCormick (R-GA) — who endorsed Trump in 2024 after first supporting Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) — faced constituents at a town hall meeting in Roswell, Georgia on Thursday.
A woman named Virginia Lim prefaced her scathing question to McCormick by referencing her familial connection to the Founding Fathers — then laid into Trump:
VICTORIA LIM: Thank you so much, Congressman, for taking my question. I do so appreciate it.
I’m a direct descendant of Susanna Henry Madison, one of Patrick Henry’s younger sisters and a cousin by marriage of James Madison.
Do you know who Patrick Henry was? And James Madison, sir? (NODS)
I’m so glad to hear that. While arguing the need for the American Revolution, Patrick Henry said “A king is a tyrant. If a wrong step is made now, the Republic will be lost forever and tyranny will rise.”.
I believe you know the rest of his speech. Something about “give me liberty.”.
It’s clear from all the writings of our Founding Fathers that our great Republic was never meant to be ruled by a dictator, nor a king.
(CHEERS AND APPLAUSE)
So. So you can imagine my shock and pure horror when I woke up to find that our president had given himself unprecedented executive powers, and then, within a few days, named himself King to his followers. (APPLAUSE).
Tyranny. Tyranny—!
MODERATOR: Virginia. Do you have a question for the congressman?
VICTORIA LIM: I do, I do. Thank you. Tyranny is rising in the white House, and a man has declared himself our king. So I would like to know. Rather the people would like to know what you, congressman, and your fellow congressman are going to do to rein in the megalomaniac in the White House.
(CROWD STANDS AND CHEERS).
AUDIENCE MEMBER: Thank you!
REP. RICH MCCORMICK: Thank you. I’m not going to give you my best Foghorn Leghorn response to that. But what I was — so you can go ahead and sit down — thank you.
The — when you talk about tyranny, when you talk about presidential power, I remember having the same discussion with Republicans when Biden was elected.
(JEERING).
The funny thing is, the funny thing is —
(JEERING CONTINUES).
The funny thing is, you’re sitting here in your body, you would probably say those January 6ers who were yelling just as loud as you, who were upset just like you, and not listen —
(INDISTINCT SHOUTING)
MODERATOR: Hey, hey, hey, let’s restore some order! Let’s restore some order! Hey hey hey, let’s restore some order!
REP. RICH MCCORMICK: So yelling, yelling at me is not going to get any answer, okay? Hey, like I said, like I said, we’re not going to give order right now.
MODERATOR: Let’s get through this. Congressman.
AUDIENCE: Shame! Shame! Shame! Shame!
REP. RICH MCCORMICK: I’ve seen Game of Thrones, too. Thank you.
Eventually, McCormick cited the so-called REINS Act, claiming it “reins in executive power” — but the bill actually has to do with rule-making at federal agencies.
Friday, February 21, 2025
This is wild: This morning we learned Judge Ali again ruled that all foreign aid must be distributed, tonight Judge Nichols says it's OK for Trump to fire all the employees at USAID who do that
That doesn't make any sense!
Judge gives go ahead for Trump administration to gut USAID’s workforce
A federal judge Friday paved the way for the Trump administration to move forward with plans to remove thousands of U.S. Agency for International Development workers from their jobs.
U.S. District Judge Carl Nichols denied a request from labor groups to issue a preliminary injunction after the Trump administration said thousands of USAID employees would be placed on administrative leave and ordered agency personnel abroad to return to the U.S. within 30 days. ...
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