Monday, December 4, 2017
Peter Strzok, removed by Mueller for anti-Trump bias, interviewed Hillary in July 2016 in the e-mail investigation
Now you know how Hillary wasn't prosecuted. The interview, conducted by a friendly, wasn't recorded, and Hillary wasn't reinterviewed multiple times thereafter the way Flynn was to document her in a misstatement the way Flynn was (Comey notably declined to prosecute Flynn, saying that Flynn didn't intend to lie). Days after the interview, Comey spelled out Hillary's misdeeds but declined to prosecute because she didn't intend to mislead when testifying contrary to the physical evidence.
Had both been prosecuted were Special Prosecutor Mueller still in charge of the FBI?
Reported here:
[Strzok] participated in the FBI's fateful interview with Hillary Clinton on July 2, 2016 – just days before then-FBI Director James Comey announced he was declining to recommend prosecution of Mrs. Clinton in connection with her use, as secretary of state, of a private email server.
As deputy FBI director for counterintelligence, Strzok also enjoyed liaison with various agencies in the intelligence community, including the CIA, then led by Director John Brennan.
Mark Levin's excellent rant after the Flynn plea deal points out Comey didn't believe the evidence showed intent to lie
Flynn's plea deal was no doubt, as Levin says, the result of being bullied and bankrupted by the Special Prosecutor.
Isn't anyone upset that the former FBI director Mueller found a process crime where the former FBI director Comey did not? Not even Leon Panetta thinks there was a process crime.
Nevermind there is no underlying crime (collusion).
We have to endure this arbitrary law enforcement and judiciary in this case because of Trump administration incompetence (Jeff Sessions).
Story here.
Labels:
Donald Trump 2017,
FBI,
James Comey,
Jeff Sessions,
Mark Levin,
Robert Mueller
Sunday, December 3, 2017
Grand Rapids, Michigan, climate update for November 2017
Grand Rapids, Michigan, climate update for November 2017
Max Temp: Actual 63, Mean 66
Min Temp: Actual 17, Mean 17
Av Temp: Actual 38.6, Mean 39.1, YTD Actual 52.7, YTD Mean 50.0
Precip: Actual 2.8, Mean 2.84, YTD Actual 37.47, YTD Mean 32.1
CDD: Actual 0, Mean 0, YTD Actual 719, YTD Mean 694
HDD: Actual 784, Mean 770, YTD Actual 1191, YTD Mean (through 2016-17) 1358
Average temperature year to date is running 5.4% ahead of mean to date.
The warmest years on record here in Grand Rapids were considerably warmer at the same penultimate stage.
In the warmest full year on record by average temperature, 2012, average temperature year to date was 54.4, 1.70 ahead of 2017 year to date and 8.8% ahead of 2017 mean to date.
In the second warmest full year on record, 1931, average temperature year to date was 53.7, 1.0 ahead of 2017 year to date and 7.4% ahead of 2017 mean to date.
In the third warmest full year on record, 1921, average temperature year to date was 54.2, 1.5 ahead of 2017 year to date and 8.4% ahead of 2017 mean to date.
The cooling need during the warm season was 3.6% above the mean.
The warming need thus far into the cool season is running 12.3% under the mean. Seasonably cold temperatures are finally predicted to arrive on Tuesday.
Saturday, December 2, 2017
Senate Republicans passed their tax plan in the wee hours of this morning, 51-49
The Senate bill and the House bill now go to conference committee to work out a compromise. The product will have to pass both chambers to get to Trump's desk.
Story here.
Friday, December 1, 2017
NYT claims 2010 Obama Paygo law would require mandatory spending cuts under the Republican tax bill
From the story here:
The biggest program affected would be Medicare, the health insurance program for older people and the disabled. But the law allows Medicare to take only a relatively small cut: 4 percent. Other programs have no such protection. ... [Paygo] requires that legislation that adds to the federal deficit be paid for with spending cuts, increases in revenue or other offsets.
Once again Republicans refuse to even THINK of cutting spending in order to cut taxes
Reported here:
The Senate parliamentarian ruled Thursday that a fiscal "trigger," important to winning deficit-wary Sen. Bob Corker's support for the GOP plan, will not work under Senate rules. Republican senators are now looking to find new ways to address the concerns of Corker, a so-called deficit hawk Republican from Tennessee.
"It doesn't look like the trigger is going to work, according to the parliamentarian," Senate Majority Whip John Cornyn, R-Texas, told reporters, according to Politico. "So we have an alternative, frankly: a tax increase we don't want to do to try to address Sen. Corker's concerns."
Retiring Sen. Bob Corker demands Republicans raise taxes in order to cut them
We had to destroy the village in order to save it.
Bombing is the only way forward.
We had to have a war between the States in order to save them.
Export subsidies are necessary in order to preserve free trade.
I have abandoned free market principles in order to save the free market system.
The London Interbank Overnight Rate system had to be suppressed in order to save the banking system.
We had to bail out the banks so that we could sue them.
Thursday, November 30, 2017
How to know the Senate tax bill SUCKS: John McCain now supports it
From the story here:
"After careful thought and consideration, I have decided to support the Senate tax reform bill," McCain said in a statement. "I believe this legislation, though far from perfect, would enhance American competitiveness, boost the economy, and provide long overdue tax relief for middle class families."
Jimmy P has it right: Tax cuts never jazzed core Trump voters the way immigration restriction and The Wall did
Here for The Week:
Remember, the U.S. is in its 101st month of a steady-if-unspectacular economic expansion. The unemployment rate is low. While there are obviously millions upon millions of Americans who continue to struggle, overall the economy simply isn't the priority for voters that it is in times of real economic crisis. What's more, a failed tax cut is unlikely to derail the expansion, since expectations of a fat tax cut aren't responsible for the growing economy and rising stock market. (You can thank a global economic upturn for that.) And tax cuts — much less corporate tax cuts — weren't the motivating factor behind the Trumpopulist surge. Tax cuts never jazzed core Trump voters the way immigration restriction and The Wall did. Trump's diehard supporters won't howl over a failure to slash corporate tax rates. ... [N]o magic tax cut will turn 2 percent GDP growth into sustained 3 percent or 4 percent growth.
Wednesday, November 29, 2017
Presidents' first nine months of current dollar GDP compared, including LBJ
Typically I present the data for JFK/LBJ as a unit because Kennedy was shot and Johnson finished his first term and then one of his own, making eight years. Same with Nixon/Ford, because Nixon resigned and Ford finished Nixon's second term, making eight years.
But when comparing first time office holders, LBJ really should be included. The key difference is that LBJ was elected in his own right in 1964, while Ford was not in 1972. So LBJ should be included, but not Ford in order to compare apples to apples.
Johnson was like Truman in three respects: For serving out a dead president's term, for being elected in his own right, and for deciding against standing for re-election.
So, the updated chart including Old Guns 'n Butter himself (note that Trump thus ranks 7th out of 12 starts in this update):
Tuesday, November 28, 2017
It takes CNBC article 13 paragraphs before admitting repeal of Obamacare mandate would result in loss of coverage for millions BY CHOICE
Here:
"Most of the losses [in insurance coverage] are due to the fact that people are not getting pushed into getting coverage," Levitt said.
It's hard to escape the conclusion that US GDP has been highly dependent on fertility
Peak Baby Boom 1952-1957 when births per 1,000 of population averaged 25.17 (graph 1) is probably the simplest explanation for outsized GDP performance during the years when this generation turned 22 from 1974-1979. More babies in the 1950s equaled more GDP come the late 1970s.
We only wish for that GDP now.
Jimmy Carter, elected in 1976, still owns the best 4-year GDP record in the post-war, despite everything you've been told (graph 2). It's nothing special he did really, it's just that in 1975, the year before his election, you had the very peak of the Baby Boom turn 18, those born in 1957 when births per 1,000 hit 25.3 for the second and final time in the post-war. They and the rest of their cohort were ready to consume in numbers never seen before. Their era spanning from Nixon/Ford from 1972 when the first of them turned 20 through Reagan in 1984 when they turned 32 represents the coming of age of America's most powerful economic demographic and the period when America's GDP performance hit its highest levels (average 46.3%).
Their failure to have enough children themselves, however, is also a big part of the explanation for the GDP trend heading south after their time. They consumed, but they did not at all produce children like their parents had. In fact, the nadir of births per 1,000 before the current period occurred from 1972 to 1977, precisely the period exactly 20 years after peak Baby Boom 1952-1957. Births per 1,000 averaged just 14.92 during this period, a rate nearly 41% lower than their parents' era. So the most prolific fruit of the Baby Boom had gone on to become themselves the least prolific, having the fewest children ever.
Not surprisingly, without enough bodies the economy inevitably began to run out of gas starting about two decades after that. Clinton era GDP performance was never as good as Reagan's, and the era was marked by various warnings, not the least of which were the bond debacles of 1994 and 1999. The great Reagan bull market ended in August 2000, a recession ensued in 2001, average S&P 500 return has been reduced to 5.2% per annum over the last 17 years, and the GDP growth rate after Clinton has averaged just half what it averaged before Carter (16% vs. 32%). No wonder the trend is down so dramatically (graph 3).
The solution?
Have LOTS more kids, and wait 20 years, if you want America to still be America, that is. Otherwise, let in even more than the 1 million immigrants we already let in annually, and prepare to kiss your country goodbye.
But don't hold your breath. Births per 1,000 have fallen to an average of just 12.5 for the five year period 2011-2015.
They don't call it the suicide of the West for nothing.
graph 1 |
graph 2 |
graph 3 |
Labels:
August 2000,
Baby Boom,
births,
CDC,
fertility,
GDP 2017,
Jimmy Carter,
secular return
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