Reported here by Reuters.
Tuesday, November 28, 2017
It's hard to escape the conclusion that US GDP has been highly dependent on fertility
Peak Baby Boom 1952-1957 when births per 1,000 of population averaged 25.17 (graph 1) is probably the simplest explanation for outsized GDP performance during the years when this generation turned 22 from 1974-1979. More babies in the 1950s equaled more GDP come the late 1970s.
We only wish for that GDP now.
Jimmy Carter, elected in 1976, still owns the best 4-year GDP record in the post-war, despite everything you've been told (graph 2). It's nothing special he did really, it's just that in 1975, the year before his election, you had the very peak of the Baby Boom turn 18, those born in 1957 when births per 1,000 hit 25.3 for the second and final time in the post-war. They and the rest of their cohort were ready to consume in numbers never seen before. Their era spanning from Nixon/Ford from 1972 when the first of them turned 20 through Reagan in 1984 when they turned 32 represents the coming of age of America's most powerful economic demographic and the period when America's GDP performance hit its highest levels (average 46.3%).
Their failure to have enough children themselves, however, is also a big part of the explanation for the GDP trend heading south after their time. They consumed, but they did not at all produce children like their parents had. In fact, the nadir of births per 1,000 before the current period occurred from 1972 to 1977, precisely the period exactly 20 years after peak Baby Boom 1952-1957. Births per 1,000 averaged just 14.92 during this period, a rate nearly 41% lower than their parents' era. So the most prolific fruit of the Baby Boom had gone on to become themselves the least prolific, having the fewest children ever.
Not surprisingly, without enough bodies the economy inevitably began to run out of gas starting about two decades after that. Clinton era GDP performance was never as good as Reagan's, and the era was marked by various warnings, not the least of which were the bond debacles of 1994 and 1999. The great Reagan bull market ended in August 2000, a recession ensued in 2001, average S&P 500 return has been reduced to 5.2% per annum over the last 17 years, and the GDP growth rate after Clinton has averaged just half what it averaged before Carter (16% vs. 32%). No wonder the trend is down so dramatically (graph 3).
The solution?
Have LOTS more kids, and wait 20 years, if you want America to still be America, that is. Otherwise, let in even more than the 1 million immigrants we already let in annually, and prepare to kiss your country goodbye.
But don't hold your breath. Births per 1,000 have fallen to an average of just 12.5 for the five year period 2011-2015.
They don't call it the suicide of the West for nothing.
graph 1 |
graph 2 |
graph 3 |
Labels:
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GDP 2017,
Jimmy Carter,
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Monday, November 27, 2017
As long as you are a good Democrat, like Al Franken, you can get away with molesting women and stay in the US Senate
Methodically executed 77 in Norway, gets only 21 years! |
Franken committed unwanted kissing and touching, but he gets to go back to work in the US Senate today.
Just like Norway, it seems Minnesota will go easy on just about everything.
All you have to do is apologize!
Story here.
Hillary and Obama's legacy in Libya: Blacks being sold as slaves in open air markets
From the story here:
Black Africans are being sold in open-air slave markets right now, and it’s Hillary Clinton’s fault. ... Footage from Libya, released last week by CNN, showed young men from sub-Saharan Africa being auctioned off as farm workers in slave markets.
And how did we get to this point? As the BBC reported back in May, “Libya has been beset by chaos since NATO-backed forces overthrew long-serving ruler Col. Moammar Gadhafi in Oct. 2011.” And who was behind that overthrow? None other than then-Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.
Labels:
BBC,
Glenn Reynolds,
Hillary 2017,
Jobs 2017,
Jobs Agricultural,
Libya,
slaves,
USA TODAY
Sunday, November 26, 2017
Friday, November 24, 2017
Reid junked judicial filibuster, Grassley junks "blue slip" tradition, Trump to pack the courts
Jake Novak provides the good news, here.
Labels:
Chuck Grassley,
CNBC,
Donald Trump 2017,
filibuster,
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Harry Reid
Orange County Register op-ed calls for Al Gore to be put on the Weinstein list
Seems Al Gore's "irresistible animal magnetism" came up a cropper in three separate incidents in 2006, 2007, and 2008.
John Phillips, here.
Thursday, November 23, 2017
Wednesday, November 22, 2017
Dramatic video shows what a parasite-ridden North Korean soldier did to achieve his freedom in the West
Thank God South Korea remains a bastion of freedom, thanks to the freedom-loving people of these United States.
Another True Born Son of Liberty is born.
Video here.
From the story:
While treating the [gunshot] wounds, surgeons removed dozens of parasites from the soldier’s ruptured small intestine, including presumed roundworms that were as long as 27 centimetres, which may reflect poor nutrition and health in North Korea’s military. The soldier is 5 feet, 7 inches tall but weighs just 9.4 stone.
Monday, November 20, 2017
Democrat Senator Al Franken copped a feel at Minnesota State Fair in 2010 according to CNBC
The Giant of the Senate, indeed. Giant fraud.
Here:
A second woman has accused Minnesota Sen. Al Franken of improper conduct, saying he put his hand on her bottom as they posed for a picture at the Minnesota State Fair in 2010 — after he had begun his career in the Senate. Lindsay Menz told CNN last week for a report broadcast Monday that the interaction made her feel "gross." She said she immediately told her husband that Franken had "grabbed" her bottom, and she said she posted about it on Facebook. ...
She said as she posed with Franken, he "pulled me in really close, like awkward close, and as my husband took the picture, he put his hand full-fledged on my rear," Menz said. "It was wrapped tightly around my butt cheek." Menz said she told her husband, Jeremy Menz, and father Mark Brown about it right away. Both men affirmed that to CNN. Menz also said she posted the photo with Franken on Facebook on Aug. 27, and when her sister commented on the photo, she replied: "Dude -- Al Franken TOTALLY molested me! Creeper!"
Sunday, November 19, 2017
Germany's Merkel fails to form coalition government after AfD upset in election
From the story here:
Merkel was weakened after an election in September as voters angry with her decision in 2015 to open Germany's borders to more than a million asylum seekers punished her conservatives by voting for the Alternative for Germany (AfD) far-right party.
There is little appetite for a second vote, especially as the main parties fear that the populist AfD would win more than the almost 13 percent of votes it secured in September.
Labels:
Alternative für Deutschland,
Angela Merkel,
asylum,
CNBC,
Germany,
populism
Longtime Nelson stepson of Moore accuser says she never once mentioned this in the family
The video is here.
At the end Darrel Nelson claims his stepmom likes to live pretty high on the hog. He believes she's in this for the money.
Deputy FBI Director Andrew McCabe suggested Comey's investigation of Hillary wasn't routine but given "special" status
The Hill reported here on the 15th:
Shortly before last year’s election, FBI Deputy Director Andrew McCabe wrote an email on his official government account stating that the Hillary Clinton email probe had been given “special” status, according to documents released Wednesday.
McCabe’s Oct. 23, 2016, email to press officials in the FBI said the probe was under the control of a small group of high-ranking people at the FBI’s headquarters in Washington.
“As I now know the decision was made to investigate it at HQ with a small team,” McCabe wrote in the email. He said he had no input when the Clinton email investigation started in summer 2015, while he was serving as assistant director in charge of the FBI's Washington office.
“[The Washington office] provided some personnel for the effort but it was referred to as a ‘special’ and I was not given any details about it,” he wrote.
Thursday, November 16, 2017
House tax bill passes 227-205, Senate still working on theirs
From the story here:
[T]he bill would limit state and local deductions and the mortgage interest deduction, eliminate the personal exemption and nearly double the standard deduction. ... The most significant difference between the chambers' plans is the treatment of state and local tax deductions. The Senate plan would eliminate those deductions entirely. The measure could alienate some House Republicans who voted for the chamber's bill that would allow up to $10,000 in property tax deductions.
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