Thursday, August 7, 2014

Obama is John Galt

"The problem is, Republicans in Congress keep blocking or voting down almost every serious idea . . .. This obstruction keeps the system rigged for those at the top . . .. And as long as they insist on doing it, I’ll keep taking actions on my own . . .." (Radio address, 6/28/14)

Wednesday, August 6, 2014

One important reason Brian Ellis lost to Justin Amash

You don't robocall Republican-inclined voters on election eve featuring a Democrat urging Democrats to cross over and vote for Ellis in the Republican primary, and then say you paid for it.

I don't think that endeared Republican-inclined voters to Ellis, who suspected there was no there there to begin with. Offering no alternative to radical libertarianism made Brian Ellis a lousy candidate. Who wants to vote for libertarian-light when you've got the real deal in Amash?

This seems to be all too characteristic of Republicans: they frequently portray themselves as moderate liberals, whether it's being for abortion in the cases of rape, incest and life of the mother, civil unions, DADT, smarter big government, or Heritage Foundation health care mandates.

Republicans need to figure out what conservatism is and whether they ought to believe in it. Until they do they'll continue to mistake libertarianism for conservatism. Even Nancy Pelosi is for "In God We Trust". Justin Amash is not.

Justin Amash, arrogant little prick, ran to stop people he hates, not represent them

In his own words here:

"Brian Ellis, you owe my family and this community an apology," Amash said. "You had the audacity to try to call me today after running a campaign that was called 'the nastiest in the country.' "I ran for office to stop people like you." . . . "I want to say to lobbyist Pete Hoekstra, you're a disgrace," said Amash, noting the former U.S. representative who appeared in a TV ad for Ellis. "I'm glad we can hand you one more loss before you fade into total obscurity and irrelevance."

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In the political world imagined by the founders of our country, there would be just 30,000 people in Justin Amash's district, who would no doubt have some tar and feathers always at the ready for the likes of him.

Tuesday, August 5, 2014

Intermediate term bonds have beaten stocks handily over the last 15 years

Morningstar shows the total return from VBIIX for the last 15 years at 6.45% per annum to August while the average return from the S&P500 for the 15 years through June has lagged at 4.23% nominal.

Attention long term stock market investors: How's an average 1.53% per year since the last market high in August 2000 sound?

Cause that's all you've got.

The inflation-adjusted S&P500 market high was in August 2000 at 2048.89.

By their fruit ye shall know them: Sermon by MLK Jr. inspires "Christian" abortionist

Seen here:

Parker says his “come to Jesus” moment, persuading him of the “call” to abortion, happened when he heard a sermon by Martin Luther King Jr. on Jesus’ parable of the Good Samaritan. By performing abortion, Parker sees himself as the Samaritan, caring for the beaten neighbor on the side of the road.

Uh huh.

Monday, August 4, 2014

Chicks still are shit: Society more receptive to gay rights than women's

Seen here:

For now, said Suzanne B. Goldberg, a law professor at Columbia, "the court's recent gay rights decisions seem to be catching up with women's rights cases of earlier decades."

"At the same time," she added, "we live in a society that now seems more receptive to gay rights than women's rights generally, so it is disheartening but not surprising to see that reflected in decisions like Hobby Lobby, which failed to see the link between contraception access and women's equality."

Ebola Virus Divides America: Alinsky's Rule of Polarization as practiced by Obama comes straight out of Aristotle

Most of these ordinary safeguards of tyranny are said to have been instituted by Periander of Corinth, and also many such devices may be borrowed from the Persian empire. These are both the measures mentioned some time back to secure the safety of a tyranny as far as possible [including] . . .  to set men at variance with one another and cause quarrels between friend and friend and between the people and the notables and among the rich . . ..

-- Aristotle, Politics, 5, 1313ab

Rule 13: Pick the target, freeze it, personalize it, polarize it.

-- Saul Alinsky, Rules for Radicals

Saturday, August 2, 2014

A broad measure of market valuation flashes higher warning: 2Q2014 total stock market capitalization to GDP ratio

Now that 2Q2014 GDP is in, it's time to look at the ratio of total stock market capitalization to GDP.

Using the Wilshire 5000 as a proxy for the whole market, you find it closed at 20862.74 on June 30, 2014, the last day of the second quarter. 20862.74 X $1.2 billion = $25.035288 trillion of total stock market capitalization on record date.

Current dollar (that is, nominal) GDP for the second quarter just came in at $17.2947 trillion in this week's report from the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

The ratio of the capitalization divided by the GDP is thus 1.45, ticking up from 1.41 at the end of 1Q2014 (23.995212 divided by 17.044).

The ratio for 1Q2009 was 0.72, exactly half what it is today.

Buyer beware.

Thursday, July 31, 2014

Jobless claims not seasonally adjusted now average 310,000 weekly in the last month

310k weekly annualizes to 16.1 million. Claims in the first half of the year annualized to about 16.95 million.

If the trend in the last month continues, 16.5 million actual claims is in the realm of possibility, a very good number.

CNBC laugh of the day: Report of booming economy lifts S&P500 0.12!


"Also on Wednesday, official data showed the U.S. economy expanded in the second quarter at a better-than-expected annualized 4 percent. This helped the S&P 500 and Nasdaq end higher."

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Evidently the GDP report helped lift only the NASDAQ. Uh huh.



Wednesday, July 30, 2014

Average report of GDP under Obama 43% worse than under Bush

For 2001 through 2008, according to today's comprehensive GDP revision from the BEA, George W. Bush had an average report of GDP at 2.1%. For 2009 through 2013, Barack Obama has had an average report of GDP at 1.2%, almost 43% worse on average than Bush.

2Q2014 GDP comes in at 4% in first estimate, 1Q adjusted again in the comprehensive annual revision to -2.1%

Reuters points out here that growth in the first half now comes to . . . 0.9%:

"The economy grew 0.9 percent in the first half of this year and growth for 2014 as a whole could average above 2 percent. The first quarter contraction, which was mostly weather-related, was the largest in five years."

Note that expectations at fxstreet had bumped up from 2.9% earlier to just 3.0% before this morning's BEA release, which will probably end up being closer to the truth two months from now in the final estimate than today's 4% print.

Recall the saga of the first quarter:

Advance estimate +0.1%
2nd estimate -1.0%
Final estimate -2.9%
Comprehensive revision released today -2.1%.

So now the terrible winter quarter to kick off the year was actually only 28% less bad than we thought a month ago, 110% worse than we thought two months ago, and 2200% worse than we thought three months ago.

That's progress!




Steven Goddard wants it both ways: the US temperature record is the best long term record but has been massively altered, nevermind CET is 355 years old and getting older


Tuesday, July 29, 2014

Attention Drudge readers: Anthony Watts booted "Steven Goddard" from WattsUpWithThat some years ago

Seen here.

Drudge recently linked to a "Goddard" (a nom de plume) story about the summer of 2014 being the "coolest summer on record" in the country, through like July 23rd, which it certainly is from the point of view of extreme summer temperatures, i.e. the annual frequency of 90 degree F or above on a percentage basis. For his story showing the chart of the NOAA data, see here. Extreme summer temperatures have been in decline for most of the last century, contrary to the alarmism of the global warming crowd, a point "Goddard" doesn't seem to have emphasized.

There is no reason to doubt his presentation of the facts that I can detect, except that it could be argued from a chart of the other extreme, the annual frequency of below zero temperatures, that for the same period, about eighty years, there has been a slight decline in the frequency of that metric, too. So there may be a decline in extremes also on the cold side if confirmed. So far "Goddard" has not supplied the trend line for that chart in the comments section. But if confirmed, that would suggest a general thesis that climate extremes have been declining within a minor warming trend which may or may not be reversing now. That's big news since climate alarmists keep telling us the warming trend will produce "extreme weather". It isn't. It's producing ameliorating conditions.

  

Sunday, July 27, 2014

Justin Amash thinks the Republican future lies with just 3% of the population

Quoted here:

"I am trying to grow a new generation of Republicans that includes more gays and lesbians . . .."

Grand Rapids Press Laughably Says Justin Amash Opposes Corporate Special Interests, Praises His Evolution Toward Democrats

You mean like the DeVos family's special interests, or his own family's, or the Club for Growth's which has spent nearly $400,000 attacking Amash's challenger, Brian Ellis? What a joke.


"But Amash has, during his two terms in Congress, started to evolve. He has worked with Democrats, most notably to try curtailing federal spying programs. He also promises to never outright vilify Democrats as a party, a welcome approach during a time of toxic political discourse. Amash has built a broad following at home and nationally. He also remains staunchly opposed to the outsized influence of corporate special interests."

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Justin Amash is as bought and paid for by powerful outside interests as any representative in America.

Saturday, July 26, 2014

New IRS 1040 clearly shows you'll owe ObamaCare TAX liability on line 61 if you don't have coverage

So in addition to lying about getting to keep your health insurance if you like it, Obama also clearly lied about not raising taxes on anybody making less than $250,000 a year.

Friday, July 25, 2014

Bank Failure Friday: GreenChoice Bank, fsb, Chicago, Illinois, failed tonight

GreenChoice Bank, fsb, Chicago, Illinois, failed tonight, costing the FDIC $14.2 million.

The bank is bank failure number 14 in 2014, and number 506 since February 2007.

Thursday, July 24, 2014

Justin Amash represents DC's Club For Growth, not Michigan's Third District

Justin Amash must be worried about his reelection prospects.

Amash is blanketing Michigan's 3rd Congressional District with a barage of anti-Brian Ellis radio ads and mailings even though Amash claims an overwhelming lead against his humble opponent based on his own polling data. Why waste the money if he is so far ahead? Well, maybe it's not exactly his money.

What the voters probably don't realize is how much of Amash's anti-Ellis attack is financed by the Club For Growth, a libertarian organization founded by a former editor of The Wall Street Journal who is now employed by The Heritage Foundation, one Steve Moore (Heritage, it will be remembered, gave us ObamaCare long before Obama came along, as their answer to HillaryCare). Like Heritage, Club For Growth is based in Washington, DC, not in Michigan's Third. Amash gets the benefit of their negative attack ads while being able to claim he has nothing to do with them.

So far in the campaign, Club For Growth appears to be responsible for almost $400,000 of spending in attack ads against Brian Ellis, who by contrast is in large measure underwriting his own campaign with a remarkably similar amount of his own money. It is notable that Ellis is pledging to overturn ObamaCare, which in Michigan is causing health care workers to lose their jobs, while showcasing his endorsements by Michigan Right To Life, veterans groups and other conservatives upset with Amash's failure to walk the conservative talk.

Amash has an excuse on Facebook for every vote which he has failed to deliver on behalf of social and economic conservatives in his own district, just as Obama can always point to someone or something for why he never gets anything accomplished as president.

Republicans ought to consider the similarity and ask themselves if those two aren't really just cut from the same cloth.