Standard and Poor's Estimate of GDP is Way Too Optimistic

From their downgrade report:

Key macroeconomic assumptions in the base case scenario include trend real GDP growth of 3 percent and consumer price inflation near 2 percent annually over the decade. ... our downside case scenario assumes relatively modest real trend GDP growth of 2.5 percent and inflation of near 1.5 percent annually going forward.

Real GDP in the first decade of the 21st century was a pathetic, anemic 1.67 percent.

If that continues (we're at 1.3 percent right now), the gap between spending and revenues will continue to widen, increasing the size of annual deficits and adding to the total debt.

Not Triple A

Thanks, Harvard.

Story here.

Israel Is Doomed: by a Mental Disorder Better Known as Liberalism

Because even its leading newspaper can't bring itself to condemn the virulent liberal-anti-Semitism of Norway which the Utoya shooter attacked, personified in the Labor Party's AUF and one Gro Harlem Brundtland, his real target.

The obsequious apology is noted here.

Why Did Californians Have Herpes While Coloradans Had Texans?

Because Californians had first choice.

(You had to be in Colorado in the summers in the 1970s before AIDS to really appreciate this).

Senator John Kerry: Enemy of a Free Press and Free Speech

Story here, about media reporting on the Tea Party:

"The media has got to begin to not give equal time or equal balance to an absolutely absurd notion just because somebody asserts it or simply because somebody says something which everybody knows is not factual."

In other words, free speech and a free press are only for some people.

Kind of like how stop signs are only for some people, right Senator? 

Unemployment to 9.1 Percent: 25 of 27 Months At Or Above 9.0

Story here.

The broader measure called U-6 which adds the marginally attached and the part-time for economic reasons has been above 12 percent for 33 consecutive months going back to November 2008.

Fannie Mae Follows First Quarter $8.7 Billion Loss With $5.2 Billion in Second

Bailouts to date: $104 billion.

Story here.

Time Magazine's Marxists Agree: Inequality Caused The Financial Crisis

Why, even Wall Street hates inequality so much it, too, dived in obeisance.

Read it here, if you must.

Debt and leverage are so bourgeois.

Today's DOW Drop Ranks 9th For Daily Point Losses. It's Not a 'Crash'.

Wikipedia has this nice chart, among others, here:

The percentage loss was big, but won't be truly significant unless it becomes part of a larger pattern of losses like we had in the fall of 2008, which dominates this chart.

For all we know, the decline today and Tuesday was the market's verdict on President Obama's and Senator Harry Reid's expressed resolve to raise taxes in the very near future in the wake of the debt ceiling deal.

Notice, however, that the historic market lows of February and March 2003, and March 2009 are absent from this chart. Those were incredible buying opportunities which did not reveal themselves precipitously. Those lows were achieved by grinding down to them.

Cash is King: US Banks Now Hold Nearly $2 Trillion

From a fascinating story at The Wall Street Journal:

The fastest-growing asset on bank balance sheets this year is cash. Since the beginning of the year, U.S. bank holdings of cash are up 83%, or $890 billion, to $1.98 trillion. ...

BNY Mellon said that customers that have deposited more than $50 million into their accounts since the end of July will face an annual fee of at least 0.13% of the excess deposits. ...

Holding cash comes at a cost to banks. Bank of New York and others pay fees of about 0.10% to the FDIC to insure their deposits, said people familiar with the matter. ...

One place banks have turned to put their cash is the Federal Reserve. Since late 2008 it has been paying 0.25% interest on funds banks hold ... in reserve with the Fed.

Learn all about it, here.

Market Panics Just After The Nick Of Time. Have A Nice Day.

Why is Gold Climbing?

"[T]here should be no doubt that gold is reacting to competitive currency devaluation schemes of central banks."

-- Mish, here

Obama's Laser-Like Focus Vaporizes Full-Time Jobs

Get mort-ified, here.

Post-War Doubling Times For Federal Spending: Every 9 Years at 8 Percent per Year

US government spending on World War Two reached a crescendo in 1945 at $107 billion, after which spending reset to a post-war low of $36 billion in 1948.

Within 4 years, spending had doubled to $72 billion, in 1952.

It took more than 14 years for federal spending to double again, sometime between 1966 and 1967, when spending shot up on the Vietnam War and the Great Society programs under President Johnson. Spending in 1966 was $135 billion.

By 1974, just 8 years later, spending had nearly doubled again to $269 billion.

Under Jimmy Carter it took just over 5 years for spending to double again, sometime between 1979 and 1980. Federal spending reached $504 billion in 1979.

By 1987, 8 years later, federal spending had doubled again to $1 trillion under Ronald Reagan.

Federal spending did not double again until sometime between 2001 and 2002. It took more than 14 years to do so going through the Bush 41 and Bill Clinton presidencies to the presidency of Bush 43. Federal outlays reached $1.9 trillion in 2001.

Which brings us down the pike to today, when spending is projected to finish the fiscal year at $3.8 trillion, doubling in the 10 years since 2001.

That's 7 doublings in 63 years, or a doubling of US government spending every 9 years since World War Two.

According to the Rule of 72, a doubling every 9 years implies an interest rate of 8 percent per year.

In other words, federal spending has an effective rate of built-in spending increases at 8 percent per year every year since 1948.

When you consider that real GDP growth from 1930-2000 has been 3.5 percent and only slightly better than half that in the decade just past, our spending is completely out of step with reality.

(data from usgovernmentspending.com)

Jonah Goldberg Tells 'Them' Where To Go

"And yet you know the next time there’s the slightest, remotely exploitable tragedy or hint of violence, the same reporters, editors, producers, and politicians are going to insist that blood was spilled because of the right wing’s rhetoric.

Well, go to Hell. All of you."

Here.

Standards are Inimical to the Left, That's Why Ratings Agencies are the Enemy

As here at Slate.com:

"If everyone hates the credit rating agencies, why won't anyone enforce the Dodd-Frank provision to dethrone them?"

Even Ken Rogoff Knows It's A Depression But Can't Bring Himself To Say So

We're still co-dependents in the disaster when even our truth-tellers continue to insist on the euphemism which is its rhetorical basis.

Ideas have consequences, and ideas require words.

Story here.

On the knees of the gods our fates are spun.

What Baseline Budgeting Does to Spending in Ten Years

If you listen to Larry Kudlow, you know that he believes that baseline budgeting contributes only as much as 4 percent to the annual increase in spending built-in to the process.

Many others assert the number is more like 7 percent.

Let's see what 7 percent does to a budget over ten years.

Obama submitted a budget for fiscal year 2012, which was defeated in the Democrat-controlled Senate 97-0 in the spring. It called for $3.729 trillion in spending for the fiscal year 2012, set to begin in October 2011.

Let's assume his spending proposal had passed both houses of Congress without objection, and then add 7 percent to the total spending to get the next year's budget, also passed without objection, and so on for ten years.

Here are the ten annual increases, in billions of dollars: 261, 279, 299, 320, 342, 366, 392, 419, 448, and 480. The built-in new spending after ten years totals $3.606 trillion. (Coincidentally, to keep the AAA bond rating from Standard and Poor's, its Sovereign Ratings Committee was looking for $4 trillion in spending cuts today as a first step. It didn't get them.)

That gives you a total budget in 2022, ten years later, of $7.335 trillion, just $123 billion shy of a doubled budget in 10 years, and just what you should expect under the rule of 72.

This kind of doubling is fairly typical for actual spending for any ten year period you pick in the last forty or fifty years, and explains how we got into the pickle in which we presently find ourselves.

So spending increases are built-in at about 7 percent, and Kudlow is underestimating.

Growth to pay for these increases, however, is not built-in, and can never be. It's highly unpredictable and for that reason alone baseline budgeting should be abandoned.

But there's another reason. There hasn't been a single decade since the 1930s where average real growth has come even close to 7 percent, as Louis Woodhill has shown here. Our best decade was way back in the 1940s, when real growth measured 5.57 percent. We haven't done as well since.

There's only one word for what passes for America's spending policy: insanity.

We haven't ever been able to afford what we've been doing.

Radiation of 10 Sieverts Per Hour Detected Between Reactors 1 and 2 at Fukushima

The measurements were made yesterday and reported here and here.

Just 2 sieverts in an hour can be fatal.

Republicans Should Have Demanded Far More Than Reid's Cuts Because They're the Last

(Have you noticed that just like with ObamaCare, it's the Senate calling the shots on everything?)

Senator Reid's cuts are the last spending cuts anyone's going to be seeing for the foreseeable future.

From TheHill.com here:

“The numbers relative to the problem are minimal, but the directional change is huge,” said Rep. Jeb Hensarling (Texas), the chairman of the House Republican Conference.

Yeah, right.

The opposite is more like it. The next fight will be over the 2012 fiscal year budget, and Republicans will die on that hill, after which it's a long way to the election.

Democrats will dig in, having compromised on the Bush tax rates extension, new revenues in the debt ceiling debate, and spending cuts. Their attitude will be that it's time for Republicans to give in on something.

More spending cuts before the election aren't going to happen.