Bernie Sanders: 567,936
Ted Cruz: 531,129
Thursday, April 7, 2016
Trump support mirrored by the growth of the 1099 worker as corporate greed turns the Buchanan Brigades into Trump's FU Army
From David Dayen in The New Republic here:
But The New York Times’s Neil Irwin might have found an answer [to the anger out there] last week, when he pointed to eye-opening new research from Princeton’s Alan Krueger and Harvard’s Lawrence Katz on Americans in alternative work arrangements, which they defined as “temporary help agency workers, on-call workers, contract workers, and independent contractors or freelancers.” This cohort of the workforce grew from 10.1 percent in 2005 to 15.8 percent at the end of 2015, representing an increase of 9.4 million workers. That’s all of the growth in the labor market over the past decade. ... “Angry” voters may simply be angry workers tossed into the Darwinian world of the modern economy, operating without any fallback support from their employers or their government. This was bound to find its way into our politics, but though solutions for these workers exist, nobody is talking about them.
At 8.2 million after 32 contests, the popular vote for Trump alone with 16 states yet to vote is set to surpass 12 million.
Wednesday, April 6, 2016
Rush makes a ring composition of today's lyin' show, featuring at the end Ted Cruz lying about the last four contests
Claiming Trump has lost them all.
If Cruz can't count to four, he's not qualified to be president.
 |
| North Dakota doesn't count because delegates are unbound with 18 uncommitted, and Trump won Arizona. |
Lyin' Rush Limbaugh repeats the false narrative to shape perceptions more favorably for Ted Cruz
He just repeated the false narrative that Trump hasn't won anything in a month, that Trump has lost the last four or five contests.
In the last month Trump has lost two to Cruz: Wisconsin and Utah. But Trump won Arizona and the Northern Marianas.
Prior to Utah, the only thing Cruz has won outright was Idaho, way back on March 8. North Dakota was not a win.
Liar.
The number of Democrats crossing over to vote Republican yesterday in Wisconsin appears to have been relatively small, unmoved by Trump's trade stand
From Politico here:
While 65 percent of those voting in the Republican open primary identified as Republican, another 29 percent said they were independent and 6 percent said Democratic.
While 65 percent of those voting in the Republican open primary identified as Republican, another 29 percent said they were independent and 6 percent said Democratic.
Turnout in the Republican primary in Wisconsin was enormous.
In 2008, barely 403,000 voted in the primary which picked McCain over Huckabee.
Yesterday, 1.06 million reportedly voted in the Republican contest won by Ted Cruz, with some votes still remaining to be counted.
Six percent of that is 64,000 Democrats.
In the Democrat contest won by Bernie Sanders, 993,000 votes were cast, about 120,000 fewer than in the 2008 contest between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton. So only half of the no-shows might have gone Republican.
The voters worried about free-trade whom Donald Trump hoped to attract went instead to Bernie Sanders in Wisconsin:
Demonstrating Sanders’ unusual strength, he ran competitively with Clinton, 51-47 percent, in who’d be the best commander-in-chief. And he won by particularly wide margins among those very worried about the economy’s direction, those who expect life for the next generation of Americans to be worse than it is today and those who think trade with other countries takes away U.S. jobs. Finally, he won 78 percent of those who favor more liberal policies than Barack Obama’s; Clinton won those who want to continue Obama’s policies, but by less of a margin. ...
Trade was a potent issue for Sanders in his surprise win in Michigan and helped him make Missouri and Illinois agonizingly close, though, Clinton turned things around in Ohio. In Wisconsin, more than four in 10 think trade takes away more American jobs, while fewer than four in 10 think it creates more jobs.
Ted Cruz wins the lesbian vote in Wisconsin, slows Trump momentum by less than 4%
On the most generous interpretation of the delegate allocation, Trump goes from needing 488 additional delegates before Wisconsin to needing 482 now. This assumes he still gets 12 more from foot-dragging Missouri and 3 in Wisconsin not yet shown (total 6) for a total of 755 vs. 749. He goes from needing 53.2% of remaining delegates to needing 55.2%, the two-point difference representing a slowdown in momentum of not quite 3.8%.
Using the same assumptions, Cruz goes from needing 762 before Wisconsin to needing 720 now, or from needing 83% of available delegates before to needing 82.5% now. That's not even a 1% pick-up in speed.
Going forward, Trump momentum is bound to pick-up as the race heads east to Trump's backyard, where Cruz will have trouble attracting votes from New York values voters.
Kasich, however, could continue to be a problem for Trump in the more liberal east, but interestingly he came in a distant third everywhere in Wisconsin and won nothing. Even in liberal congressional district 2, which includes Madison and had Tammy Baldwin as its Democrat representative, Kasich came in a distant third.
Cruz narrowly bested Trump in CD-2 by fewer than 2900 votes.
Tuesday, April 5, 2016
Wisconsin Republicans are totally in the tank for a path to legalization, which is lyin' Ted Cruz' true position, also Gov. Walker's
From the exit polling, here:
More than six in 10 GOP voters in Wisconsin think undocumented immigrants should be offered a path to legal status, on track to be the highest of any state this year (it’s topped out at 59 percent in Virginia). Only a third support deporting undocumented immigrants, fewer than in previous primaries. Deportation voters have been a strong group for Trump in previous primaries; Cruz beat Trump in recent contests (North Carolina, Missouri and Illinois) among the larger group that favors a path to legal status, and Kasich won them in Ohio.
If Ted Cruz wins Wisconsin tonight, it'll be nothing more than a dead cat bounce
Ted Cruz' momentum collapsed by 44% in March.
He was dead weeks ago. He just doesn't know it yet.
So, Michelle Field's mom is Honduran born and runs a nonprofit for illegal aliens
Michelle Fields may have a very strong and until now secret motive to try to bring down Trump.
Rush says Trump's already trying to change the subject from his impending loss today to new immigration plan details
What rubbish. That must be the OxyContin talkin'.
Trump's detailed proposals have been out there since August 2015, on his website.
Hillary lost to Obama in Wisconsin in 2008 by 193,000 votes in the Democrat presidential primary: Can she do it again?!
Total turnout in the Democrat presidential primary in 2008 was 1.11 million.
The question this year is whether Bernie Sanders will drive Democrat turnout there to a similar conclusion, or will Democrats cross over in large numbers to vote for Trump. The primary is open.
It would seem Sanders' natural voters are not the working class, in which case Democrats crossing over for Trump would come from Hillary's voters. It could be both: enthusiasm for Bernie among the young and far left boosting his turnout, and enthusiasm for Trump from the blue collars boosting Trump's. In which case Hillary and Cruz might be disappointed today in Wisconsin.
Fewer than 403,000 votes were cast in the Republican presidential primary in 2008, which was won by McCain with 225,000 votes. Huckabee ran second, and won in the western and central part of the state where Trump is supposed to be strong in 2016. Pretty odd. The ARG poll had picked McCain to win Wisconsin by 8, who won it by 17.8. This time around ARG is picking Trump by 10 against six recent polls showing Cruz by an average of 6.5.
ARG is also showing Hillary by 1 as polls open this morning. The Real Clear Politics poll average has Sanders ahead by 2.6.
Long lines of enthusiastic Wisconsinites at all Trump venues in recent days, despite the gaffes which upset polite society political correctness, argue for a stronger showing by Trump today than the consensus would suggest.
Monday, April 4, 2016
Delegate race update: Trump needs 53.76% of 930 available to win, Cruz 81.94%
Trump's delegate total tonight moves up to 737, Cruz' to 475.
Kasich needs 117.63% of the available delegates to win, in other words, MORE THAN ARE AVAILABLE.
Conservative talk radio is still lying to you: Ted Cruz' momentum steadily eroded in March by 44%
Ted Cruz ended the first week of March needing 57% of remaining delegates to get to 1237.
By March 10th he needed 61%.
By March 18th 77%.
As of March 23rd he needs 82% of remaining delegates to win.
The 25-point increase in his required future performance over three weeks represents a 44% slowdown in his momentum from the beginning of the month.
The voters are wasting their votes on Ted, as they are on Kasich.
Ted Cruz should suspend his campaign and begin negotiations with Trump. John Kasich should just drop out.
For the good of the party, and the country.
ARG Inc. poll got Michigan massively wrong, shows Trump +10 in Wisconsin tomorrow
The ARG poll had Kasich winning Michigan by 2 when Trump won it by 11.6.
Otherwise . . .
ARG has been pretty good this season.
It had Trump by 16 in NH. Actual: 19.5.
It had Trump by 12 in SC. Actual: 10.0.
It had Cruz by 1 in TX. Actual: 17.1. OK, way off but at least it got the winner right!
It had Trump by 25 in FL. Actual: 18.8.
It had Kasich by 6 in OH. Actual: 11.1.
Conservative talk radio in Wisconsin has been united for months in stopping Donald Trump, fawning over Ted Cruz
Which is why the voters in Wisconsin are unaware of Ted Cruz' flips on trade and immigration.
From the story here:
The Wisconsin talk radio conglomerate, which rallied conservative voters to help Gov. Scott Walker win three elections in four years, has now set its sights on stopping Mr. Trump by deprecating the delegate leader and elevating Mr. Cruz. ...
The most popular conservative talk show hosts here — Mr. Sykes, Jeff Wagner of WTMJ, and Mark Belling, Vicki McKenna and Jay Weber of WISN — are united in their disdain for Mr. Trump, with Jerry Bader, a radio personality at WTAQ in Green Bay, rounding out the group.
“The thing that’s been unique in this presidential race is, for some reason, the three who work here — Jay, Vicki and myself — and our competitors, Charlie and Jeff Wagner, all seem to despise Trump,” Mr. Belling said in an interview. “We all just kind of came to this conclusion independently. I think it’s just that we’re not as stupid as some of the people that are falling for Trump’s crap.”
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