Saturday, July 12, 2025

The New York Times eulogizes one of its sources from the past with contempt, David Gergen, who has succumbed to Lewy body dementia at age 83


 

 ... Years later, he expressed contempt for President-elect Donald J. Trump. “A bully — mean, nasty and disrespectful of anyone in his way,” he wrote in a 2021 column for CNN. ...

Mr. Gergen wore his 6-foot-5 frame comfortably and was graced with an easygoing manner, verbal quickness and a ready laugh that made him popular with many White House reporters. He also leaked information often enough to be labeled “the Sieve” by some of them. 

That reputation fed speculation that he was Deep Throat, the shadowy figure who provided The Washington Post with insights into the Watergate scandal in the early 1970s. That source, however, was confirmed in 2005 to have been W. Mark Felt, the No. 2 official at the F.B.I. ...

The spin “had nothing to do with ideas,” Mr. Gergen said. “It had nothing to do with anything that was real. Eventually, it became selling the sizzle without the steak. There was nothing connected to it. It was all cellophane. It was all packaging.” ...

Mr. Gergen was the author of a best-selling book, “Eyewitness to Power: The Essence of Leadership, Nixon to Clinton” (2000). The book offered lessons for would-be leaders that tended to be little more than bromides, advising them to develop “a capacity to persuade” and “an ability to work within the system.” He revisited the topic in a 2022 book, “Hearts Touched With Fire: How Great Leaders Are Made.” ...

More.

Republican David Gergen was on the wrong side, you see, even if he was a centrist.

Friday, July 11, 2025

Elon Musk/DOGE cuts failure continues: Federal deficit spending is 5% higher year to date through June than it was last year at this time, according to the monthly statement of the U. S. Treasury Department

 The fiscal year to date deficit October 2023-June 2024 was $1.273258 trillion.

The fiscal year to date deficit October 2024-June 2025 is $1.337372 trillion, $64.114 billion higher than a year ago, or 5%. 


 

This dope who works for Trump can barely speak English, is just looking for any way he can to oust Fed Chair Jay Powell

These people make me sick.
 
The renovations were approved in 2021 and won't be finished until long after Powell leaves next May. 
 

It's an investigation with a pre-drawn conclusion, that's all.

... “When you go to the nation’s mall, you see the construction of this palace ... upwards of $2.5 billion massive cost overrun, and we want to make sure we have facts as to the largesse and the extent to which it’s overrun,” Vought said during a “Squawk Box” interview. “I think it just points to the fundamental mismanagement of the Fed under the chairman.” ... 

″The problem with Chairman Powell is he has been late at every turn,” Vought said. “It’s time to lower rates. You have a problem there. But again, this is about the largesse and the fact that he has systemically mismanaged the Fed, and that is evident by what we’re seeing with regard to this monstrosity, this Palace of Versailles, on the National Mall.” ... 

“This certainly has to do with the fiscal mismanagement of the Fed, of which [interest rates] is one aspect of it,” he said. “We are going to zoom in over the last several days on this. We have new commissioners at the National Capital Planning Commission who are asking very tough questions.” ...

Ron Insana: Why Trump’s new attack on Powell should be so troubling to investors

... If I were a foreign investor witnessing the ouster of a Fed chair, replaced by a presidential supplicant, I’d sell the dollar and U.S. bonds and head for the hills. Let’s hope it doesn’t come to that.

The great impediment to a U. S. - Canada trade deal which most people in the U. S., including our dunce of a president, don't seem to understand is that it's not Mark Carney standing in the way, it's Canada's sovereign 10 provinces and 3 territories


 

Canada is today's poster child for America's bad old system of states' rights.

Canada does not have free trade with itself, let alone with the United States. Imagine not being able to drive an 18-wheeler cross country. 

 

 Is Canada now free of internal trade barriers? Not yet, says expert: Breaking down interprovincial trade barriers is still a work in progress, says expert

... When Carney made his campaign promise, he was talking about cutting red tape put up by the federal government — not the rules set by the provinces, which have the most authority in this area. ... 

There is no comprehensive list of existing internal trade barriers. Even some lobby groups have told parliamentarians they don't know how many barriers their own industries face.

There isn't even consensus on what all counts as a trade barrier. ...

Internal Trade Minister Chrystia Freeland, who has repeatedly stated that most of the barriers are at the provincial level, testified to the Senate that she will meet with her provincial counterparts on July 8 to discuss next steps.

One major obstacle is in Freeland's crosshairs: Canada's patchwork of interprovincial trucking regulations.

"One of three areas that I will be putting on the agenda at that meeting is trucking," she said on June 16. "It should be a lot easier than it is to drive a truck from Halifax to Vancouver. We need to get rid of conflicting requirements."

 

 

Unaffordable Care Act to become more unaffordable for millions in 2026 due to Trump's reconciliation bill, just in time for the election


 

 Why 22 million people may see ‘sharp’ increase in health insurance premiums in 2026

... More than 22 million people — about 92% of ACA enrollees — received a federal subsidy this year that reduced their insurance premiums, according to KFF, a nonpartisan health policy research group.

Those recipients would see “sharp premium increase” on Jan. 1, Cynthia Cox, the group’s ACA program director, said during a webinar on Wednesday.

The average marketplace enrollee saved $705 in 2024 — a 44% reduction in premium costs — because of the enhanced tax credits, according to a November analysis by the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities.

Without the credits, average out-of-pocket premiums in 2026 would rise by more than 75%, Larry Levitt, KFF’s executive vice president for health policy, said during the webinar.

Additionally, 4.2 million Americans would become uninsured over the next decade if the enhanced subsidies lapse, according to the Congressional Budget Office.

That growth in the ranks of the uninsured is on top of the nearly 12 million people expected to lose health coverage from over $1 trillion in spending cuts Republicans made to health programs like Medicaid and the ACA to help offset the legislation’s cost. ... 

ACA enrollment has more than doubled, to roughly 24 million people in 2025 from about 11 million in 2020, according to data tracked by The Peterson Center on Healthcare and KFF. ...  

According to Google's AI, there are 22.8 million fewer uninsured 2010-2024, presumably because of Obamacare, but 26.7 million more on . . . Medicaid!

Because of that Rube Goldberg Machine known as Obamacare!

Push here, and it comes out there. And the kicker is Medicaid involves estate recovery for nursing home and other care costs at death, which varies by state.

You can run, but you cannot hide. 

 


 

Wednesday, July 9, 2025

Six climatology charts for Grand Rapids, Michigan, updated today continue to show little evidence of global warming, but plenty of winter moderation

 

average temperature trending up about only 1 degree F in 132 years; could be heat island effect

winter lows trending slightly lower
summer highs trending slightly lower
winter heating demand trending lower
summer cooling demand effectively flat
and much much wetter








Tuesday, July 8, 2025

Camp Mystic campers routinely did not receive weather emergency training, did not have access to their phones while at camp

 

 
HUNT, Texas (AP) — Texas inspectors signed off on Camp Mystic’s emergency planning just two days before catastrophic flooding killed more than two dozen people at the all-girls Christian summer camp, most of them children.
 
The Department of State Health Services released records Tuesday showing the camp complied with a host of state regulations regarding “procedures to be implemented in case of a disaster.” Among them: instructing campers what to do if they need to evacuate and assigning specific duties to each staff member and counselor.
 
Five years of inspection reports released to The Associated Press do not offer any details of those plans at Mystic, raising new questions about the camp’s preparedness ahead of the torrential July 4 rainfall in flood-prone Texas Hill Country. ... 
 
Charlotte Lauten, 19, spent nine summers at Camp Mystic, mostly recently in 2023. She said she didn’t recall ever receiving instructions as a camper on what do in the case of a weather emergency. ...
 
One thing that likely hindered the girls’ ability to escape was how dark it would have been, Lauten said. Campers don’t have access to their phones while at camp, she said, adding they wouldn’t have cell service anyway because of the remote location. ...



Put it back in the warehouse, Pam

 


$30 billion is not jet fuel for the economy

 

... The new additional senior deduction and other changes in Trump’s “big beautiful bill” may reduce taxation of Social Security benefits by approximately $30 billion per year, estimates the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. ...               

$30 billion is 0.10 percent of current GDP of $29,962.00 billion.

House Speaker Mike Johnson wants you to know this is jet fuel for the economy. 

 


 

Speaking of reversals, now Jeffrey Epstein did kill himself, clients on list relieved to learn that there is no list




Exclusive: DOJ, FBI conclude Jeffrey Epstein had no "client list," committed suicide

Epstein client list doesn’t exist, DOJ says, walking back theory Bondi promoted

Trump again reverses course on Ukraine out of the blue

He cuts their weapons, he sends them weapons. He cuts their weapons, he sends them weapons.
 

... “We’re going to send some more weapons. We have to. They have to be able to defend themselves,” Trump told reporters at the White House at the start of a dinner with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

“They’re getting hit very hard now,” he added. “We’re going to have to send more weapons, defensive weapons, primarily.” ...

Monday, July 7, 2025

When relying on technology in Flash Flood Alley lets you down

 Girls camp grieves loss of 27 campers and counselors in Texas floods that killed nearly 90 people

... Operators of Camp Mystic, a century-old summer camp in the Texas Hill Country, said they lost 27 campers and counselors, confirming their worst fears after a wall of water slammed into cabins built along the edge of the Guadalupe River. ...

... On Thursday the National Weather Service advised of potential flooding and then sent out a series of flash flood warnings in the early hours of Friday before issuing flash flood emergencies — a rare step that alerts the public to imminent danger.

Authorities and elected officials have said they did not expect such an intense downpour, the equivalent of months of rain.

Kerrville City Manager Dalton Rice said one of the challenges is that many camps are in places with poor cellphone service. ...

Why did the Guadalupe River flood so fast? What to know about Texas' 'Flash Flood Alley'

... The Guadalupe River and its surrounding areas in Texas Hill Country have historically been prone to flash flooding, earning the nickname "Flash Flood Alley." This area is particularly hazardous, as river levels increased rapidly at the end of last week and over the weekend. ...

 

Permitting the building of cabins along a river in a dangerous flood plain was just tempting fate.

They do things differently in Texas. 

 

Sunday, July 6, 2025

If it hasn't been jet fuel since 2017, it won't be now

Real GDP has been 2.43% compound annual 1Q2017 through 1Q2025. And that includes all the obscene pandemic spending.

This isn't even close to the 2.8% Trump cheerleaders are promising, let alone the 3% The Speaker touts.

 

 
There's no new tax cut. The Trump tax reform from his first term simply continues. There's no injection of new money on a permanent basis involving tax bracket changes, nothing substantively different for the average taxpayer.
 
There are short-term gimmicks for seniors, earners of tip income, earners of overtime pay, car-buyers, etc., but most of these are scattershot and most importantly, most of them expire in 2028.
 
The incremental adjustments which occur naturally to standard deduction amounts would occur anyway. 

More above average income filers will be able to itemize than previously, but only until 2030.
 
 

 

U. S. House GOP majority declines to 219-212 as Mark Green of TN-7 resigns, as expected

 Story.

Democrats are down three seats temporarily due to deaths. 

Saturday, July 5, 2025

Performance of some older Vanguard funds since inception, through June 30, 2025

In chronological order:

 

Wellington Fund, VWELX, inception July 1, 1929: 8.35%

Windsor Fund, VWNDX, inception October 23, 1958: 11.24%

U. S. Growth Fund, VWUSX, inception January 6, 1959: 11.04%

Explorer Fund, VEXPX, inception December 11, 1967: 9.34%

Wellesley Income Fund, VWINX, inception July 1, 1970: 9.19%

Long Term Investment Grade Fund, VWESX, inception July 9, 1973: 7.30% 

500 Index Fund, VFINX, inception August 31, 1976: 11.50%

Long-Term Tax-Exempt Fund, VWLTX, inception September 1, 1977: 5.26% 

High-Yield Tax-Exempt Fund, VWAHX, inception December 27, 1978: 5.87% 

High-Yield Corporate Fund, VWEHX, inception December 27, 1978: 7.8%

GNMA Fund, VFIIX, inception June 27, 1980: 6.18% 

International Growth Fund, VWIGX, inception September 30, 1981: 10.38%

Short-Term Investment-Grade Fund, VFSTX, inception October 29, 1982: 5.43%

International Value Fund, VTRIX, inception May 16, 1983: 8.36%

Global Capital Cycles Fund, VGPMX, inception May 23, 1984/September 26, 2018: 5.15% 

Energy Fund, VGENX, inception May 23, 1984: 9.53% 

Health Care Fund, VGHCX, inception May 23, 1984: 14.57%

PRIMECAP Fund, VPMCX, inception November 1, 1984: 13.53%

Star Fund, VGSTX, inception March 29, 1985: 9.23%

Windsor II Fund, VWNFX, inception June 24, 1985: 10.91%

Long-Term Treasury Fund, VUSTX, inception May 19, 1986: 5.82% 

Growth and Income Fund, VQNPX, inception December 10, 1986: 10.93% 

Total Bond Market Index Fund, VBMFX, inception December 11, 1986: 5.03%

Extended Market Index Fund, VEXMX, inception December 21, 1987: 10.53%

Equity Income Fund, VEIPX, inception March 21, 1988: 10.32% 

Total Stock Market Index Fund, VTSMX, inception April 27, 1992: 10.47%

Dividend Growth Fund, VDIGX, inception May 15, 1992: 9.01%

Growth Index Fund, VIGRX, inception November 2, 1992: 11.31% 

 

Vanguard performance: Total bond and total stock market indices since inception

 VBMFX, inception 12/11/1986: 5.03% through 6/30/25

VTSMX, inception 4/27/1992: 10.47% through 6/30/25 

SPX since August 2000 continues to underperform the pre-Reagan era by almost 20% in real terms, the Reagan bull market era by almost 68%

SPX 8/2000-5/2025: 7.62% per annum nominal, 4.95% per annum real (inflation rate 2.54% per annum)

SPX 1/1871-7/1982: 8.15% per annum nominal, 6.18% per annum real (inflation 1.86%)

SPX 7/1982-8/2000: 18.99% per annum nominal, 15.28% per annum real (inflation 3.22%) 

 

We'll get the June 2025 Consumer Price Index report on Tuesday July 15th. The previous read was 2.4% yoy overall, and 2.8% yoy for the core.  

SPX vs. gold since 1913


 

Gold 1913-2025 ($20.67-$3500.05 peak on April 22, 2025): 4.689% compound annual growth rate, nominal.

The S&P 500 did better than that in nominal terms.  SPX 4/1913-4/2025 (8.79-5369.50, monthly average prices): 5.895% compound annual growth rate, which does not include dividends reinvested; the nominal per annum plus dividends reinvested produced 10.14% total nominal per annum.

In real terms the $20.67 price of gold in April 1913 is only $676.62 in April 2025, or 3.164% CAGR inflation over the period. So in real terms gold is up just 1.478% per annum over the period (from $676.62 to $3500.05). 

Again in real terms SPX is up more, 2.65% per annum without dividends reinvested over the period, and even more with dividends reinvested, 6.76% per annum.

Spot gold on July 4th was lower than in April, at $3329.67. 

SPX made a new high for the Fourth of July.

 


 

US Treasury yields were down modestly in June 2025 on an average basis

Long bets continue to demand higher compensation both relatively speaking and relative to January 2024.


 


Billionaire becomes homeless

 Welcome to the club, bub.

 

Friday, July 4, 2025

Thursday, July 3, 2025

The GOP House bowed down and worshipped before the GOP Senate and voted for its reconciliation bill lock, stock, and barrel today at 2:30pm, including all the clowns of the House Freedom Caucus

The roll call vote is here.

The $36 trillion national debt will soar.

The interest payments on that debt were $639 billion fiscal year to date at the end of May, and they will soar, too.

The so-called fiscal conservatives of the House Freedom Caucus could have stopped this monstrosity, but they all backed down save for Massie and Fitzpatrick, and they aren't even members.

The entire House Freedom Caucus voted for it. 

 

 




Hakeem Jeffries has finished his speech in the US House, which took 8 hours and 44 minutes, a new record

 



You can't win: State and local government employment is up 175k since January, which more than offsets federal employment down 69k

 The swamp is everywhere lol.

down 69k

up 119k

up 56k

Pressure on the House GOP reconciliation bill holdouts got them all, save one, to flip at 03:23 this morning, finally allowing the bill to come to the floor for debate

Thomas Massie was originally for bringing the bill to the floor for debate, then switched to against that after Trump got testy with him lol, and then switched back to for again after getting Trump to stop criticizing him, at least temporarily.

He'll still vote against this damn thing, and will probably be the only one. 

The debate phase started at 03:30 and is still ongoing.

Hakeem Jeffries is trying to outdo Kevin McCarthy with a marathon floor speech in opposition longer than eight hours and thirty-two minutes. 


In education news, the once great Indiana University has turned its back on Western civilization and purged its traditional degree programs because the children of the barbarians don't enroll in them anymore

 A victory for the mouth breather, Marco Rubio, fellow servant of Mammon.

 


 








Donald Trump has managed to fire a measly 69,000 federal employees since January, state government employees up 56,000 lol

Looks like a lot of federal workers found new jobs lol. 



We had a record average number who were eating but not working in the United States in 1H2025, not seasonally adjusted: 102.65 million

 The seasonally adjusted figure is also a record high: 102.50 million in 1H2025.

 


The Rush Limbaugh/Donald Trump dumb ass unemployment rate was 37.58% in the first half of 2025

 


Trump's own government says he has 103.2 million eating but not working in June 2025

I don't make the rules.

Rush Limbaugh makes the rules.

 


Full time employment in June 2025 rises to 49.83%, first half of 2025 falls to 49.30%, as bad as 2021 or 2017

 

Full time was 49.83% of civilian population in June 2025

Full time was 49.30% of civilian population in 1H2025

Wednesday, July 2, 2025

CNBC also is wondering where the fuel comes from for future GDP under the Trump tax cuts since they are already not cutting it lol

 


House GOP can't agree to proceed to debating Senate reconciliation bill, vote stands at 206 Yea, 216 Nay (4 GOP against), with 10 GOP not voting

Yikes. 

Even if all not voting GOP vote Yea, there's a tie. Not good enough.

And moments ago Thomas Massie changed his Yea to Nay lol. 

 Trump’s megabill is in real trouble; House GOP leaders need to flip a ‘no’ vote to a yes

 


 

S&P 500 closes at another new high today

 


The Pentagon has admitted that Iran's nuclear program has been set back by at most two years

 


Deane Waldman argues Medicaid cuts of 20 million new Biden enrollees who don't belong there would save lives by shortening wait times for care which have swelled to 132 days

 Medicaid cuts could save thousands of lives  

... Reduced enrollment and cuts to nonclinical spending could shorten wait times, make care more accessible, and reduce death-by-queue. No one in the media has reported this potential benefit from cuts to Medicaid. ... 

Don Bacon: Please stop hating me

 


Jobs going bye-bye in the news

 

Housing in a Fed stress test scenario

The median price of houses sold in the United States in March 1963 was $17,800.

Adjusted for inflation to March 2025, that would be $186,600.

But in fact the median price of houses sold was $416,900, 123% higher.

A 36% shock to that as contemplated by the Fed's recent bank stress tests could bring the median price of houses sold down to $266,800, dialing the clock back to 2013, which is still 43% higher than what the long term price would be merely adjusted for inflation.

A large number of homeowners who have purchased homes from 2020 when prices skyrocketed by 31% could be instantly underwater in this scenario. There have been 4.73 million new large bank consumer mortgage originations since 2Q2020.

Add losing a job and boom, you could have another foreclosure crisis all over again.

The 2007 shock to the median price of houses sold was only 19% 1Q2007-1Q2009, with prices not recovering until 1Q2013, but many millions of foreclosures were completed over the period.

A mitigating factor for homeowners generally today is owners' equity in real estate, which was almost 62% in 2005, but in 2025 is almost 72%, ten points higher. We haven't seen a level like that since 1960. 

Owners' equity had crashed by a quarter to 46% by 1Q2012, the lowest on record in the post-war.

Every major bank passes stress test from the US Federal Reserve

507 banks failed in the United States 2008-2014 inclusive, costing the Deposit Insurance Fund nearly $90 billion. Many millions of homes went into completed foreclosure.

 
 
... All 22 banks tested this year would have remained solvent and above the minimum thresholds to continue to operate, the Fed said, despite absorbing roughly $550 billion in theoretical losses. ...
 
Under this year’s hypothetical scenario, a major global recession would have caused a 30% decline in commercial real estate prices and a 33% decline in housing prices. The unemployment rate would rise to 10% and stock prices would fall 50%. In 2024, the hypothetical scenario was a 40% decline in commercial real estate prices, a 55% decline in stock prices and a 36% decline in housing prices. ...      
 
The 2024 benchmarks are a mixture.
 
Commercial real estate prices year over year fell more than 11% in 4Q2008, and more than 30% in 4Q2009. Planning for a future 40% decline seems appropriate.
 
The 2007 shock to the median price of houses sold was only 19% 1Q2007-1Q2009, with prices not recovering until 1Q2013. But since the median price of houses sold has jumped by about 31% just since 2020, planning for a future 36% decline is more than appropriate.
 
Unemployment peaked at 10% in October 2009. The civilian employment level contracted by almost 7 million 2007-2010 on an average basis, and did not recover until 2014, seven long years later. Pandemic unemployment peaked at 14.8% in April 2020. We got as high as 10.8% in November and December 1982. Great Depression unemployment peaked at 25.59% in May 1933. This one is a crap-shoot. 
 
The average price of the S&P 500 fell 50.8% between October 2007 and March 2009, but in 2007 the S&P 500 was valued about 26% above the long term mean, not 130% as in 2024.
 
That's the datum that worries me. Just to get to its historical median value of 81, the S&P 500 today would have to fall 61%, to about 2425.
 
Imagine the howls. 
 
 

 
  
 

Ukraine suffered its largest attack yet from Russia, Trump's response is to cut weapon shipments while dithering yet another two weeks on his Putin ultimatum

Trump is a detestable, amoral fiend.

... The weapons being delayed include dozens of Patriot interceptors that can defend against incoming Russian missiles, thousands of 155 mm high explosive Howitzer munitions, more than 100 Hellfire missiles, more than 250 precision-guided missile systems known as GMLRS and dozens each of Stinger surface-to-air missiles, AIM air-to-air missiles and grenade launchers, the two defense officials, two congressional officials and two sources with knowledge of the decision said. ... 

Ukraine has repeatedly appealed for additional U.S. and European air defense weaponry as Russia has stepped up its air raids in recent months. Over the weekend, Ukraine’s Defense Ministry said Russia had launched the largest aerial attack on the country since Moscow’s full-scale invasion in 2022, firing 60 missiles and 477 drones. ...

The munitions were approved as part of Presidential Drawdown Authority and Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative packages during the Biden administration, the defense officials and two sources with knowledge of the decision said. Some of the shipments are already in the region but have been stopped before being turned over to Ukraine, according to a defense official and two sources with knowledge of the decision. ...

 


 

Senate reconciliation bill gives chipmakers like TSMC more tax credits while cutting Medicaid

 

 
... Under the bill, passed by the Senate Tuesday, tax credits for those semiconductor firms would rise to 35% from 25%. That’s more than the 30% increase that had made it into a draft version of the bill. ... 

The new provisions expand on tax incentives under the 2022 CHIPS and Science Act, which provided grants of $39 billion and loans of $75 billion for U.S.-based semiconductor manufacturing projects. ...

 

... Recent changes to the bill would cut roughly $1.1 trillion in health-care spending over the next decade, according to new estimates from the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office. 

More than $1 trillion of those cuts would come from Medicaid, a joint federal and state health insurance program for disabled and low-income Americans, according to the CBO. The funding cuts go beyond insurance coverage: The loss of that funding could gut many rural hospitals that disproportionately rely on federal spending.

The CBO estimates that the current version of the bill would result in 11.8 million people losing health insurance by 2034, with the majority of those people losing Medicaid coverage. ...

Approximately 72 million Americans are currently enrolled in Medicaid, about one-fifth of the total U.S. population, according to government data. Medicaid is the primary payer for the majority of nursing home residents, and pays for around 40% of all births. ...

Tuesday, July 1, 2025

What fools these people are! What fools they think we must be!