The Wall Street Journal: Trump is leading Harris among whites by 22 points, among seniors by 8 points

The late swing among older and white voters jumps out in the Emerson College poll. On Aug. 15, less than a month after she became the Democratic nominee, Ms. Harris trailed Mr. Trump by 12 points among white voters and was tied with him among all voters 60 or older. Since then, these voters have fled from Ms. Harris. By Oct. 26, Mr. Trump led by 22 points among whites and 8 points among seniors. ... 

 

Prejudice can’t explain older whites’ recent flight from Ms. Harris, since she was already a black woman in August, when many more of them supported her. ...

 

Losing older whites is politically painful, since they tend to turn out at a high rate. They’re also overrepresented in key states like Wisconsin and Michigan.

More.

"I lost white Catholics by only 15 points"

 

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2024/09/27/pennsylvania-harris-2024-election-00180099

Democrats are whistling past the graveyard of the industrial downturn, but this article misses their coerced misallocation of investment to a green energy economy the voters don't want

 But perhaps most ominous are signs that domestic manufacturing is on the cusp of a full-blown sectoral recession. Output has declined for five months, no doubt due to uncertainty over interest rates, as well as the debilitating shortage of skilled workers. The contraction, however, isn’t merely a reflection of Federal Reserve policy reinforcing supply-side choke points, which has undercut Team Biden’s efforts to reshore industry. In fact, production has been largely anemic since at least the slump of 2019; according to the Institute for Supply Management, a leading industry association, a 13-month stretch from 2022 to 2023 was the longest downturn since 2000-2002, when Permanent Normal Trade Relations with China went into effect. ... 

These patterns should be of grave concern to progressives—as a matter of politics and policy. A similar, overlooked downturn late in President Barack Obama’s second term likely contributed to Hillary Clinton’s defeat in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin in the 2016 election. That, along with her campaign’s astounding indifference to the industrial Midwest, practically cemented the view among many working-class whites that today’s Democrats have abandoned their New Deal roots. Although the Harris-Walz ticket appears to be sustaining momentum and has trained its focus on preserving the “Blue Wall,” unanticipated headwinds in battleground counties could spell the same fate as Clinton’s. ...

The reality is that dozens of counties reeling from job losses have effectively experienced what many wage-earners rightly feared: stagflation. In more rural regions, peak inflation was higher than the national average, a trend which spread from the South to the postindustrial Northeast. Its toll undoubtedly compounded the sense of helplessness among rural households, who tend to pay more for groceries and other staples. Mainstream liberals seem reluctant to acknowledge as much. ...

An economy pockmarked by mini-regional downturns, moreover, belies headlines heralding a manufacturing renaissance.

More. 

 

 

Kamala Harris is not cutting it with Pennsylvania Catholics like Joe Biden once did

 

 Harris’ challenge isn’t limited to abortion. The region continues to inch rightward. And Harris didn’t do herself any favors in 2018, when as a senator she grilled a Catholic judicial nominee about whether he could remain impartial due to his membership in the Knights of Columbus, a respected Catholic fraternal organization with a strong presence in northeastern Pennsylvania. The questioning is fuel for a multi-million-dollar campaign in swing states, including Pennsylvania, led by CatholicVote, a conservative advocacy group. ...  in the northeastern part of the state, Trump was ahead by a comfortable margin, 50 percent to 43 percent.

... white Catholics nationally voted for Trump by a wide margin in 2020 and were on pace to vote for him again, with a spring Pew survey finding that white, non-Hispanic Catholic voters preferred the former president by a 61 percent to 38 percent margin over Biden. According to a recent EWTN/RealClear poll, that gap has narrowed, with Trump leading Harris among white Catholics, 52 percent to 42 percent. ... A Brookings analysis earlier this year by University of Pennsylvania professor John DiLulio noted that Hillary Clinton lost the overall white Catholic vote by 33 points in 2016, but four years later, Biden cut that deficit in half, losing by only 15 points. “As much as any single shift in voting patterns between those two elections, the shift in the white Catholic vote away from Trump cost him the 2020 election,” wrote DiLulio.

More. 

The story never once mentions the possible appeal of J. D. Vance, a convert to Catholicism in 2019, to America's Catholic voters.

Democrats still excelling at white-identity politics after all these years lol: White Women for Harris raised ~$11 million, White Dudes for Harris . . . not so much

"Only we get to be racist".

 

Imagine the firestorm over "White Dudes for Trump".

 

‘White Dudes for Harris’ raise $4 million for Democrat’s campaign against Trump

 

This story wants you to know lol: 

Trump and his running mate, Sen. JD Vance of Ohio, are both white.

Meanwhile . . .

Grassroots organizers raise millions online for Harris in first week

The back-to-back calls motivated activist and Moms Demand Action founder Shannon Watts to follow suit. She organized a group, dubbed "White Women: Answer the Call." The impromptu effort, sparked by a 5 a.m. X post last Tuesday, broke a record for the largest Zoom call in history. It crashed the site with nearly 200,000 women and raised more than $11 million. ... 

"I am here tonight embracing myself, in your incredible, profound white women midst, because we got a f***ing job to do y'all," said actress Connie Britton on the call. 

 

 

 

The Supremes still don't have the courage to void the tyrannical, unequal, racist, Northern neo-reconstructionism of the 1965 Voting Rights Act in the American South

 The Supremes are not colorblind and are as reprehensible in this as any college or business using racial quotas to exclude whites and Asians in favor of less qualified people of color, and they know it.

American liberalism is nothing if not hypocritical.

Chief Justice John Roberts and Justice Brett Kavanaugh, both conservatives, joined the court's three liberals in the majority.

In doing so, the court — which has a 6-3 conservative majority — turned away the state’s effort to make it harder to remedy concerns raised by civil rights advocates that the power of Black voters in states like Alabama is being diluted by dividing voters into districts where white voters dominate.

In Thursday’s ruling, Roberts, writing for the majority, said a lower court had correctly concluded that the congressional map violated the voting rights law.

He wrote that there are genuine fears that the Voting Rights Act “may impermissibly elevate race in the allocation of political power” and that the Alabama ruling “does not diminish or disregard those concerns."

The court instead “simply holds that a faithful application of our precedents and a fair reading of the record before us do not bear them out here,” Roberts added.

As such, the court left open future challenges to the law, with Kavanaugh writing in a separate opinion that his vote did not rule out challenges to Section 2 based on whether there is a time at which the 1965 law's authorization of the consideration of race in redistricting is no longer justified.

More.

Election 2016's dirty little secret is that 52% of nonvoters were non-Hispanic whites, a huge untapped reservoir of votes feared by the identity politicians of the left

And Pew Research did its best to lie about them in this study from 2018, saying "nonvoters were more likely to be younger, less educated, less affluent and nonwhite. And nonvoters were much more Democratic".

Pew's own graph and statements show this not to be true.

Nonvoters were more likely to be white, 52% vs. 46%, and fully 53% of them did not prefer Hillary Clinton in 2016: "37% expressed a preference for Hillary Clinton, 30% for Donald Trump and 9% for Gary Johnson or Jill Stein; 14% preferred another candidate or declined to express a preference". 

The American left fears this potential white vote, which is why it must lie about it, minimize it, drug it, demoralize it, and vilify it.

It is why you hear so much about mythical white supremacists in the news, and mythical violent white militias causing mayhem everywhere, even as media and Democrats deny Antifa is a thing or that BLM is violent. Meanwhile those leftist groups, anarchist and communist, are getting away with inciting and actually causing riots, arson, looting, injury, and murder on a previously unimaginable scale, now approaching a cost to the economy of $2 billion. Their foot soldiers are the half-educated, indoctrinated, young, poor products of America's unionized public schools.

The left demonizes whites in order to neuter them, knowing their deep-seated American cultural propensity for guilt derived from Christianity. It plays on that guilt and perverts it chiefly by outlawing religion in the schools and teaching white responsibility for slavery to your children qua white instead. Its greatest fear is whites who will no longer accept that new religion and that guilt and fight back. And it particularly fears any politician whose specific appeal is to them.

POLITICO knows the name of the game is suppressing Trump's white vote

 From the end of the story, which is intent on doing just that, here:

Even if the result is a margin of victory with noncollege-educated white voters that is smaller than it was four years ago, Trump will almost certainly carry that group. And if he can turn them out in greater numbers, he could shift the electorate toward him in several predominantly white states. Republicans and Democrats alike estimate there are hundreds of thousands of unregistered, noncollege-educated whites in key swing states that Trump could still pick up.

That fight for those voters was on display in Minnesota on Friday, where Trump and Biden appeared not in the Minneapolis-St. Paul suburbs, but in more culturally conservative, northern reaches of the state. Republicans there and in some of the whitest counties in the country say they haven’t seen any falloff for Trump, and many of them suspect that polls are still underrepresenting his support.

Stephanie Soucek, chair of the Republican Party in Wisconsin’s Door County said she sees more Trump signs in her county than she did in 2016. Jack Brill, acting chair of the local Republican Party in Sarasota County, Fla., said “the base in Sarasota County is as strong as ever.”

In Duluth, the target of much attention from the Trump campaign, the city’s former mayor, Gary Doty, acknowledged that the president may have shed some support among some white women because of “the way he presents himself. He’s sometimes crude and rude, and I don’t care for that style.”

However, he said, “I think there’s this silent group of people” who support Trump and will turn out for him.

Doty said that after he endorsed Trump recently, “people that wouldn’t talk to me about politics … after they heard I had supported the Trump ticket, would come say, ‘Hey, I’m for him, too.'"

Loser in Georgia gubernatorial contest Stacey Abrams says her vote was suppressed while taking credit for turnout surge

Ding dong.

Abrams Complains Race Was Stolen Through Voter Suppression, Boasts of Huge Turnout Increases in Same Interview:

"I ran a race where … we tripled Latino turnout, Asian-Pacific Islander turnout, increased youth participation rates by 138 percent, increased black turnout by 40 percent, and I got the highest share of white voters in a generation," she said. "It is not a zero-sum game, and we have to remember that winning elections is about building the largest coalition possible." ...

"I'm not saying I absolutely know I would have won, but we know that thousands of Georgians had their voices stolen because they were not able to cast ballots and they cannot be guaranteed that their votes will be counted in 2020 if we don't do this right," she said.

Georgia voter turnout surged from 43 percent in 2014, the last governor's race year in the state, to 57 percent in 2018. ... Abrams lost by less than 55,000 votes but failed to force a runoff as Kemp continued a Republican state-wide winning streak. However, Abrams has refused to officially concede she lost, saying "we won," accusing Kemp of systemic voter suppression tactics, and saying the race was "stolen" from the voters of Georgia.

Among whites Trump 2016 underperformed Romney 2012 57%-59% overall, but crushed him with whites in eleven states and in seven to win the presidency

Mitt Romney is back, but he really ought to just zip it. He's a loser.

States where Trump 2016 (wins in red) outperformed Romney 2012 (wins in blue) among whites:

Florida 64%-61%

Indiana 64%-60%

Iowa 54%-47%

Maine 46%-40%

Michigan 57%-55%

Minnesota 50%-49%

Missouri 66%-65%

New Hampshire 48%-47%

New York 51%-49%

Ohio 62%-57%

Wisconsin 53%-51%.

Where Trump underperformed Romney Trump still won the same contests, but also reeled in Pennsylvania which Romney did not. Overall Trump won 10 states to Romney's 4, largely on improved performance among whites.

States where Romney 2012 (wins in blue) outperformed Trump 2016 (wins in red) among whites:

Arizona 66%-54%

California 53%-45%

Colorado 54%-47%

New Jersey 56%-54%

New Mexico 56%-47%

North Carolina 68%-63%

Oregon 44%-42%

Pennsylvania 57%-56%

Virginia 61%-59%

Washington 46%-40%.

Exit polling via CNN.

Myth of the white supremacy surge: Rather than a 4-point decline in the white vote for Republicans from 2016 to 2018 per the NYT, a better comparison is 2018 vs. 2014 showing a 6-point decline

It's better to compare midterm election with midterm than it is midterm with general.

Whatever Trump and the Republicans have been doing, it's not causing the white majority to vote for Republicans in greater numbers when Trump most needs them to do so to advance his agenda.

Arguably every racial group is running away from what Republicans stand for under Trump. 

Contrary to Richard Spencer who says Trump has made inroads with minority communities, Trump has alienated minorities from the Republican Party since 2014, the black vote by 1-point, the Latino vote by 7-points, and none more than the Asian vote, by a whopping 27-points, partly a function no doubt of Trump's (correct) anti-China rhetoric.

Trump's prospects for reelection in 2020 do not look good at all. Whatever "movement" he thinks he had was nonexistent, and instead of growing his support it's going the other way.

Election 2016 remains The Revulsion Election, and if Trump's not careful he'll be on the receiving end of the revulsion instead of Hillary come 2020.

CNN 2018 exit poll

CNN 2014 exit poll

Looks like Richard Spencer is taking the NYT as seriously as Ann Coulter

2018 support from whites fell to 54%. Trump has suppressed the white vote.

Where all da white wymyn at? Cuckin' der men, dats where.

Peter Brimelow: Donald Trump and Steve Bannon are not alt-right people

Quoted here in The New York Times in an article which calls to mind, as usual, nothing so much as a bucket full of eels:

“Trump and Steve Bannon are not alt-right people,” Mr. Brimelow said, adding that they had opportunistically seized on two issues that the alt-right cares most about — stopping immigration and fighting political correctness — and used them to mobilize white voters. 

To The Times racism defines not just the alt-right but conservatism generally, such as believing in Obama's foreign provenance and therefore his illegitimacy to be president, or thinking Black Lives Matter is itself a racist movement, or advocating something more than birth within our borders is necessary to be a citizen, none of which could possibly be legitimate topics of debate because The Times believes they are settled matters and any other view means one must be a racist.

To question what is settled is unacceptable to The Times, and that is best dealt with by slathering on the racism charge.

Never argue the substance.

Pal of WaPo's Jennifer Rubin blames defeat of Romney on the mistaken idea of the decline of White Christian America

This is pure voter suppression on Jennifer Rubin's part.

White America isn't in decline. It's just that no one appeals to their interests anymore because it has been politically incorrect to do so.

The fact is that Romney received less than 59% of the white vote in 21 states and lost the white vote outright in 8, losing all 21 states to Obama in the process. But even as bad as that was, with just an 8% better performance among whites in only four states in the east Romney would still have defeated Obama.

Robert P. Jones, here, whose numbers are not granular, which is what is required for sound political analysis but not at WaPo (because it's a Democrat typing pool):

In the last presidential election, for example, about eight in ten of Mitt Romney’s supporters were white Christians, compared to only about one third of Barack Obama’s supporters.

The white vote decreased by 2 million 2008-2012

Fewer than 500,000 votes total from four states, Florida, Virginia, Ohio and New Hampshire, kept Romney from victory in 2012.

From the story here:

. . . Trump might need a smaller surge of 3 million white men to show up at the polls.

That’s not out of the question, considering that the white vote decreased by 2 million voters between 2008 and 2012 — a drop analysts attributed to Romney’s lack of appeal with the working class. 

Republicans say the drop-off in white working class voters was the worst in deep red states that Romney won easily, but it also affected the tally in Ohio, a pivotal battleground.

Uh oh, there are more white voters than the exit polls show, and they'll be votin' for Trump

h/t RobeGuy

Gee, do ya think anyone has an interest in suppressing the white vote?

From Michael Barone, here:

The CPS [Current Population Survey by the US Census] and Catalist report that the 2012 electorate was 74 and 76 percent white -- higher than the exit poll's 72 percent. They say that only 15 percent of voters were under 30, not 19 percent as in the exit poll, and that 61 and 62 percent were 45 or older, not 54 percent as in the exit poll.

Most significantly, they peg the proportion of non-college-graduate whites over age 45 -- Donald Trump's core group -- as 30 and 29 percent of voters, significantly higher than the exit poll's 23 percent.

Ann Coulter correctly says Mitt Romney lost the 2012 election because he lost the white vote

Here yesterday:

[Stuart] Stevens says Romney tapped out every last white voter and still lost, so he says Republicans are looking for “the Lost Tribes of the Amazon” hoping to win more white votes: “In 1980, Ronald Reagan won 56 percent of white voters and won a landslide victory of 44 states. In 2012, Mitt Romney won 59 percent of whites and lost with 24 states.”

Apparently, no one’s told Stevens about the 50-state Electoral College. ...

Romney lost the white vote to Obama in five crucial swing states: Maine (42 percent of the white vote), Minnesota (47 percent), New Hampshire (48 percent), Iowa (48 percent) and Wisconsin (49 percent). He only narrowly beat Obama’s white vote in other important swing states — Illinois (51 percent), Colorado (52 percent), Michigan (53 percent), Ohio (54 percent) and Pennsylvania (54 percent).

Increasing the white vote in these states gives Trump any number of paths to victory.

I made similar observations here at the end of February, noting how Romney averaged under 50% of the white vote in 21 states, losing them all to Obama.

Whites outperformed for Obama in 2012 despite 2009 Porkulus and 2010 Obamacare, stiffing Romney by 18%

Romney received 59% of the white vote nationally in 2012 according to CNN Politics exit polling figures (which do not exist for 19 states), but underperformed that with whites in 21 states, losing the white vote outright in 8 of them:

California 53%

Colorado 54%

Connecticut 48%

Illinois 52%

Iowa 47%

Maine 40%

Maryland 55%

Massachusetts 42%

Michigan 55%

Minnesota 49%

Nevada 56%

New Hampshire 47%

New Jersey 56%

New Mexico 56%

New York 49%

Ohio 57%

Oregon 44%

Pennsylvania 57%

Vermont 33%

Washington 46%

Wisconsin 51%.

On an average percentage basis, Romney garnered just under 50% of the white vote in these states, losing them all to Obama, underperforming his own national showing among whites by 18% on average.

The white vote is especially interesting in the four states in the east which Romney lost by just 429,522 votes in the aggregate (2.3% of the total votes cast), which together with his 206 electoral college votes would have given him the 270 necessary to win the election:

Florida, lost by 74,309 votes (0.87% of the total vote cast there in 2012)
Virginia, lost by 149,298 (3.87%)
New Hampshire, lost by 39,643 (5.57%)
Ohio, lost by 166,272 (2.97%).

In Florida Romney outperformed himself with whites, getting 61% of the white vote (67%), but needed 62.4% of it to win. In Florida Romney needed to do 2.3% better with whites to win than he did.

In Virginia Romney also outperformed himself with whites, getting 61% of the white vote (70%), but needed 66.53% of whites to win. That meant doing 9.1% better with whites in Virginia than he did.

In New Hampshire Romney severely underperformed himself with whites, getting just 47% of the white vote (93%). He needed to increase that to 53% to win it. In other words, Romney needed to do 13% better with whites in New Hampshire than he did.

And in Ohio Romney also underperformed himself with whites, getting 57% of the white vote in 2012 (79%). To win it he needed 60.8%. In other words, Romney needed to do 6.7% better among whites in Ohio to win than he did.

So on average Romney needed to do about 8% better with whites than he did in order to win these four states and with them the election. But overall it was Romney's severe underperformance with whites from California to Vermont which meant that even that was highly unlikely to happen in the end.

Pittsburgh's Salena Zito thinks shouting "Enough" is a right-wing racist mob phenomenon only because Hillary's not good at it

Inciting her own racist mob to little effect

In "Let Us Not Be Consumed by the Mob" under a nice big picture of Donald Trump:

'Every political movement has a tipping point. It goes too far, or it loses its original purpose — or it becomes so self-enamored, under the influence of anger and mob rule, that ugliness shades all the good of its original intent. Such is true of the populism that peaked this summer in America. Years of incompetency and a tin ear at the White House, along with a Republican-controlled Congress accused of not accomplishing much, drove people to figuratively or literally shout, “Enough is enough!” ... With Donald Trump's emergence, and with a chorus of talk-radio hosts suddenly behind him, the mob-rule crowd deems everyone who was ever elected to office (with the exception of Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas) to be a Republican-in-name-only or part of a dark establishment cult intent on crushing the souls of average white voters. ... The mob-rule crowd gnaws on any piece of political red meat thrown out as truth, never checking to see what kind of flesh it just consumed. None of this represents true conservatism. All of it is pure populism, and it is radically contaminating conservatism's values.'

Rush Limbaugh Continues In Error: McCain Did NOT Get More Votes Than Romney

Rush Limbaugh can be so wrong sometimes it's infuriating, and once he gets some misinformation into his head, it's almost impossible to get it out of there. He can complain about the low information voters all he wants, but it's the lazy misinformation he spews which we all need to worry about, as when Rush won't allow Donald Trump into the conservative movement because The Donald wants to raise tariffs to beat the hell out of China. That's not conservative, Rush says, nevermind a tariff regime funded this country clear through the War Between The States and many decades thereafter. The fact is that Rush Limbaugh's version of conservatism doesn't win because it can't imagine America before 1913, isn't intelligent and doesn't compel assent for that reason. America still has an institutional memory, and the people still can tell when someone makes sense and when they don't.

Rush opened the second hour of the program today, here, claiming for the umpteenth time that Romney got fewer votes than McCain, which he didn't: "Obama got millions fewer votes in 2012 than he did in '08, but so did Romney get many million fewer votes than did McCain." This phone-it-in comment is in service of Rush's new vote suppression meme, i.e. Democrat suppression of Republicans, courtesy of the new IRS nonprofits targeting scandal. But the theory is completely unsupported by the facts of the last election. How different is this misinformation than the idea swallowed hook line and sinker by Republicans that they lost in 2012 because they lost the Hispanic vote? Maybe they lost the white vote. 

Romney polled 60.93 million in 2012 and McCain 59.95 million in 2008, okay? And Romney lost the election by half as many votes in the swing states as McCain lost it by in those same states. Romney was a better candidate than McCain, but he was still a bad candidate.

With what's happened with the IRS scandal I don't think Rush will ever be convinced he's wrong about the 2012 election numbers, even though he is.

That would require some effort on his part, and as we all know, the older we get, the harder that gets.