C'mon man, the National Weather Service can't decide RIGHT NOW what the weather is, let alone tomorrow, next week, next year, or in ten years

 One man's partly sunny is not another man's mostly cloudy.

Climate Update for KGRR: 1Q2023

 Climate Update for KGRR: 1Q2023 since 1892

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Average temperature, mean:  27.5F.

Average temperature, actual:  32.7F; Anomaly: 19%.

Compare 2012 actual: 37.4F; Anomaly 36%.

January 2023 was the fifth warmest January on record by average temperature.

February was the thirteenth warmest February on record by average temperature.

The March average temperature anomaly was comparatively insignificant at 3.8%.

Heating degree days, mean: 3354.

Heating degree days, actual: 2880; Anomaly: 14%.

Compare 2012: 2505 actual; Anomaly: 25%.

January ranked fifth for fewest HDD in January.

February ranked tenth for fewest HDD in February.

The March heating degree day anomaly was comparatively insignificant at 4.4%. 

Snowfall, mean: 40.8".

Snowfall, actual: 42.5".

March 2023 was the fourth snowiest March on record with 23.3".

Natural gas prices have collapsed from the summer on unseasonably warm January temperatures meeting 2022 high production levels

 

top lines show full 2022 and start of 2023

 

Grand Rapids, MI, had its 5th warmest January by average temperature in Jan 2023 since 1892. Case is similar in many US cities which broke into the top 10 warmest Januaries on record, including Indy, Syracuse NY, Columbus OH, and Madison WI.

Climate Update for KGRR 2022

 Mean average temperature in Grand Rapids, Michigan since 1892: 48.2 degrees F.

Mean average temperature in 2022: 48.7.

That is all.

Gotta hand it to UPS: 5 degrees F all day yesterday, winds howling, 7.5 inches of new snow, and UPS still delivered the package

 No mail.

 

Half of the top 10 snowiest Decembers in Grand Rapids have occurred since 2007

 The result, no doubt, of the generally wetter conditions in the Great Lakes over the long haul as predicted by slightly cooler Pacific Ocean waters indicated by the Oceanic Nino Index.

We've had 14+ inches so far in Dec 2022 with 2 feet expected in the latest storm, so this December might break into the top 5. 

Winter. It's what's for Christmas.

 

KGRR climate update through Nov 2022

2022 mean average temperature eleven months through Nov = 50.4

Mean average temperature through Nov since 1892 = 50.0

28 inches of snow, second highest November on record, all melted now.

 

 

Buffalo, New York gets all the headlines, but Grand Rapids, Michigan has already had its second snowiest November ever

 We've been busy around here with three days in a row of 7+ inches of snow each, and in excess of two feet in five days.

Total November snow is already at 27.3 inches, which beats November 1951 at 26.9.

The snowiest November of all time at KGRR was November 2014 with 31 inches.

It was 75 degrees F here in Grand Rapids on November 10.

We dropped to 18 F last night.

Record November snow in Buffalo was 45.6 inches in November 2000. The second snowiest November was 31.3 inches in November 1976.

BUF is officially at 36.9 inches already through the 19th, also making November 2022 its second snowiest November ever, with ten more days left in the month. 

Its three-day history is 9.4, 5.7, and 21.5 inches yesterday.

It was 79 F in Buffalo on the 5th, and dropped to 23 F in Buffalo last night.

Climate emergency: 2022 average temperature in Grand Rapids MI through September was 0.4 degrees F above the long-term average since 1892

Mean average temperature in Grand Rapids MI through September 2022: 51.5F.

Mean average temperature in Grand Rapids MI through September since 1892: 51.1F.

Welcome to my uncharted territory of climate destruction, eh?

 Average temperature in Grand Rapids, MI, Jan-Aug 2022 = 49.9

Average temperature in Grand Rapids, MI, Jan-Aug since 1892 = 49.6

UN warns world is entering ‘uncharted territories of destruction’ from climate crisis

 

 

How is it that the National Weather Service at Grand Rapids, Michigan, station KGRR, can't get the high or the low temperature right for July 19, 2022?

 The three day history for KGRR shows that the high on the 19th was 88 degrees F at numerous points throughout the afternoon and evening, and that the low was 71 degrees F early in the morning, but if you look at the daily data for a month it says the high was 90 degrees F and the low was . . . 49 degrees F.

The mean minimum for July going back to 1892 is 49 degrees F, so that explains that error. Some idiot transcribed that value instead of the actual value. So far this month, the lowest minimum was 52 degrees F.

Can't explain the 2 degree F discrepancy for the high, though. You would think that there would be room for a spike up to 90 during an hour interval by the presence of at least one 89 value at some regular hourly interval, but there isn't one.

Is someone's fat finger on the scale over there?

It's a good reminder that the human element introduces error into the record, whether intentional or not, and that you can't believe everything you're told, even about the simplest of things.

By the way, I'm just four miles from the station as the crow flies, and we had a rain shower last night which doesn't show up in the three day history either.

I know, I know, aLl wEaThEr iS LoCaL. 

 

 

Climate Update for KGRR: 2Q2022

Climate Update for KGRR: 2Q2022

Spring was just 1.2% warmer than the mean by average temperature, on the strength of slightly higher highs and higher lows, and only 3% wetter than usual. 

Average Temperature: 58.1

Mean Average Temperature: 57.4

Rain: 10.68

Mean Rain: 10.37

Snow (official season end +6.6%): 71

Mean: 66.6

Heating Degree Days (official season end -6.2%): 6282

Mean: 6694

Cooling Degree Days through June: 250

Mean: 184

Maximum temperatures vs. mean in 2Q

Apr: 82/79

May: 87/86

Jun: 95/91

Minimum temperatures vs. mean in 2Q

Apr: 23/22

May: 36/32

Jun: 45/43

Climate Update for KGRR: 1Q2022

Climate Update for KGRR: 1Q2022

Winter was 1.5% colder than the mean by average temperature, 1% colder by heating degree days, 44% wetter, and 25% snowier. 

Average Temperature: 27.0

Mean Average Temperature: 27.4

Rain: 9.13

Mean Rain: 6.33

Snow: 50.8

Mean Snow: 40.8

Heating Degree Days: 3389

Mean Heating Degree Days: 3356

Station KGRR of the National Weather Service is increasingly unreliable

Yesterday's predicted high was 50 degrees F. 

It made it to 38.5 on my device not far from the airport right around 5PM last night. I only cared about it because I was earnestly expecting the warm temperatures to make it easier on me while I pumped some standing water from a low spot on my property.

The National Weather Service 3-day history shows the high was 39 degrees F, right at about that time. It is customary for the NWS to round up to the next degree once the value hits .5.

But both the Daily Almanac and the Climatology pages show the high was 40 F.

Looks like lying and bias in favor of global warming to me, on top of not being able to predict the damn weather tomorrow.

 

When people lie about everything in a society, even the smallest details, that society is finished because without trust there can be no society.

 

 

 

 

Climate Update For KGRR: December 2021 and 2021 Annual

Climate Update For KGRR: December 2021

 

Max T 63, Mean 53: tied for 8th highest on record

Min T 15, Mean 04: 9th highest on record

Avg T 34.5, Mean 28.4: 9th highest on record

Rain 2.23, Mean 2.44

Snow 10.1, Mean 15.9

Heating Degree Days 938, Mean 1126

HDD to date 2039, Mean 2481

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2021 Annual Climate Summary For KGRR

 

Max T 92, Mean 95: tied for 18th lowest on record

Min T -12, Mean -7

Avg T 50.8, Mean 48.2: 11th highest on record (5.4% warmer than Mean vs. 9.5% warmer than Mean for the warmest full year on record in 2012)

Rain 38.04, Mean 34.8: 33rd wettest on record

Cooling Degree Days 893, Mean 696: 19th highest on record (compare with the previous year Heating Degree Day heating season 2020-2021, which ranked 15th warmest on record with 6170 HDD vs. 6697 Mean since 1892) 

Warmer conditions for KGRR in calendar 2021 were an instance more of moderate winter conditions back-ending and front-loading the year than of extreme summer conditions in the middle of it.

 

 

Climate update for KGRR: November 2021

 Climate Update for KGRR: November 2021

Max T 65, Mean 66 since 1892

Min T 18, Mean 17

Avg T 38.5, Mean 39.1

Rain 2.22, Mean 2.83

Snow 9.7, Mean 6.3

HDD 789, Mean 771

CDD 0, Mean 0

Boringly normal.

Weekend crew at KGRR can't even predict the wind speed

Official forecast right now for tonight:

A chance of rain showers before 9pm, then a chance of rain and snow showers between 9pm and 10pm, then a chance of flurries after 10pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 26. Blustery, with a northwest wind 14 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 38 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

 

Current conditions:

 

Wind Speed NW 31 G 47 mph 

Blew the lid right off the Weber.

Climate Update for KGRR: October 2021

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Climate Update for KGRR: October 2021

 

Max T 80, Mean 79

Min T 31, Mean 28

Av T 57, Mean 51.3                             (7th highest on record for October)

Rain 6.44, Mean 3.06                          (7th most in October on record; La Nina!)

Cooling Degree Days 23, Mean  9      (season is 19th highest on record to date)

Heating Degree Days 266, Mean 425 (8th fewest for October on record)

Climate Update for KGRR: September 2021

 

 

 

 

 

Climate Update for KGRR: September 2021

Max T 86, Mean 88

 

Min T 47, Mean 37 (tied for second highest minimum temperature on record with 1933; only 2019 and 2016 had higher minimums at 48; once again, so-called "global warming" is more a story of moderating at the cold end of the spectrum than of heating at the high end)

 

Av T 65.6, Mean 62.8 (actual to date is running 4.2% above mean to date)

 

Rain 3.34, Mean 3.59 (actual to date is down to just 0.69 above mean to date, or 2.6%; but October precipitation is already well ahead of normal to date, by 1.4; La Nina!)

 

Cooling Degree Days 70, Mean 75

CDD to date 870, Mean 691 (26% higher; the season will crack the list of warmest 20 summers on record; recall that the previous Heating Degree Day season was the 15th mildest winter on record)

 

Climate Update for KGRR: August 2021

Climate Update for KGRR: August 2021

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Max T 92, Mean 92

 

Min T 53, Mean 47:

 

Tied for sixth warmest August on record to 1892 by minimum temperature, with five other years ("global warming" is a transient phenomenon of recently moderating lows with 56% of the twenty-five warmest Augusts by minimum temperature on record occurring since 1960; that drops to 48% occurring since 1960 for the thirty-eight warmest Augusts by minimum temperature).

Av T 74.3, Mean 70.3:

 

Ninth warmest August on record by average temperature; the top five warmest Augusts were all before 1960.

 

Rain 2.33, Mean 3.06

 

Cooling Degree Days 295, Mean 190:

 

Ninth warmest August on record by CDD; the top five warmest were all before 1960.

 

CDD to date 800, Mean to date 616:

 

Six of the ten warmest years by total annual CDD (all ten above 963) are all before 1940, with 1921 at 1200 way out front as the hottest on record. Mean CDD for September is 76, so it would take a real scorcher in September 2021 to even hope of cracking the top ten for annual CDD. So far we are at 35 CDD in September.