Final Uncalled House Race Update: NY-1 Remains a Democrat Hold

The Republican challenger has conceded to the Democrat incumbent. The story is here.

The net gain for Republicans in the US House in 2010 remains at 63, putting the Republicans in the majority with 242 seats to the Democrats 193.

No one foresaw such an eventuality two years ago when the Democrats decisively swept Republicans aside on Obama's coattails and acquired an overwhelming majority numbering 256 seats. That tide wasn't completely reversed in this election, but for a party deemed dead for all intents and purposes the comeback is a remarkable thumping, thanks in part to the activism of the Tea Party movement, which was created spontaneously out of thin air in February and March of 2009 in response to Democrat stimulus spending and mortgage modification programs.

The battle to stop and reverse Obama's programs designed to transform American culture and institutions has now been joined.

Beware Obamao's red guards.

Uncalled House Race Update: CA-11 Remains a Democrat Hold

So says Real Clear Politics tonight.

But the hold is not by much, and the Republican challenger, who is down by just under 3000 votes, has yet to concede.

Jerry McNerney, the incumbent Democrat, looks to have benefitted by a third party challenge to the Republican David Harmer's right. A Constitution Party candidate siphoned-off about 5% of the vote from the Republican, over 9000 votes, more than enough to have made all the difference.

With one race not yet called, NY-1, the Republicans have a net gain of 63 in the US House.

Uncalled House Races Update: CA-20 and NY-25

Real Clear Politics is showing CA-20 to be a Democrat hold tonight. The Hill says incumbent Democrat Jim Costa had picked up 3000 votes in the interim since the election, even though as of November 9 the totals showed Costa had trailed the Republican challenger Vidak by 27 votes. Vidak apparently had not yet conceded.

RCP also shows NY-25 to be a GOP pick up over incumbent Democrat Maffei, an Obama freshman, who conceded to the Republican challenger Buerkle after Buerkle's tally was trimmed only by roughly a hundred votes from the 659 vote lead she had as of November 10.

So the net Republican gain now stands at 63 with two races still not called: NY-1 and CA-11.

Uncalled House Races Update: Republican Wins in IL-8

CNN.com reports here that the incumbent Democrat Melissa Bean has conceded to the Republican challenger Walsh in the IL-8 House district race.

It appears that Walsh won by fewer than 500 votes in the race where a third party Green candidate siphoned-off 3% of the vote on the Democrat's left.

That would give the Republicans a net gain of 62 seats in the US House, with four races still to be decided: CA-11, CA-20, NY-25 and NY-1.

Real Clear Politics also shows IL-8 a Republican pick-up overnight. 

Uncalled House Races Update: Republican Challenger in KY-6 Concedes

As reported here, the Democrat Chandler holds on to his seat, winning by less than 700 votes.

The Republican net gain continues at 61 seats, with 5 uncalled races: CA-11, CA-20, IL-8, NY-25, and NY-1.

Uncalled House Race Update: VA-11 a Democrat Hold

Real Clear Politics has been showing this race a Democrat hold since yesterday.

Politics Daily shows the incumbent Democrat Connolly with just 920 votes more than the Republican challenger Fimian.

Three third party candidates could be blamed for the Republican's loss. The Independent garnered 1,838 votes, the Libertarian 1,381 votes, and the Green 959 votes. All together those votes represented barely 1.75% of all votes cast.

Net Republican gains remain at 61 with 6 races still not called: CA-11, CA-20, IL-8, KY-6, NY-25 and NY-1.

Undecided Races Update: WA-2 Stays Democrat

Real Clear Politics shows the race as a Democrat hold this morning.

Politics Daily shows just 11 precincts left to be counted and 98% of the vote in with incumbent Democrat Larsen ahead of Republican challenger Koster by almost 5,500 votes.

That leaves the Republicans with a net gain of 61 seats in the US House, with 7 races still not called: CA-11, CA-20, IL-8, KY-6, NY-25, VA-11 and NY-1.

Of 8 More Close Uncalled House Races, 3 Look to go Republican

With a net gain to date of 61 seats, 3 more defeats of Democrat incumbents look possible.

Bloomberg.com reports similarly here:

“It’s expected that Republicans will hold on and pick up a total of 63 or 64 seats, though recounts can occasionally produce a surprise,” said Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics.

Vote totals taken from PoliticsDaily.com show Republican Vidak overturning Democrat Costa in CA-20 50.8% to 49.2%.

In IL-8, the Republican Walsh looks to overtake Democrat Melissa Bean 48.5% to 48.3% thanks to Green Party Scheurer siphoning off 3.2% on the Democrat incumbent's left. This was conservative Republican Phil Crane's old seat.

And in NY-25 the Republican Buerkle has a similarly razor thin lead over incumbent Democrat Maffei 50.2% to 49.8%.

Other races don't look as promising for Republicans, close as they are.

A constitutionalist third party candidate in CA-11 has managed 5% of the vote in a race leaning to the incumbent Democrat McNerney over the Republican Harmer by just .3%.

Incumbent Democrat Chandler in KY-6 has a .2% lead over Republican challenger Barr.

Three third parties in VA-11 have bled off 1.8% of the vote in favor of the Democrat incumbent Connolly vs. Republican Fimian who trails by .4% of the vote. Libertarian and Green parties strike again.

WA-2 is a different matter with 95% of the precincts reporting because of voting by mail. The Democrat Larsen is ahead of Republican Koster 50.7% to 49.3%.

The race in NY-1 has looked like Democrat incumbent Bishop's over Republican Altshuler 51% to 49% until the report of a closer count in the Bloomberg story. The Republican says many absentee ballots have not yet been counted. 

Net Republican Pickups 61

Republican pickups number 64 gross, but the net must subtract Democrat pickups, which were 3: the at-large seat in Delaware vacated by primary defeated Mike Castle in the Senate race, Abercrombie's seat in Hawaii only very temporarily occupied by a Republican, and Cao's seat in Louisiana, who lost as the only Republican voting for Obamacare.

So net 61 Republican pickups, as shown at Real Clear Politics, with 8 races still not called.

Uncalled Races Update

Looks like NY-1 all of a sudden goes into the undecided category, with Real Clear Politics this morning showing Bishop vs. Altshuler at 50-50.

The others are (Democrat vs. Republican):

CA-11, McNerney vs. Harmer, 48-47

CA-20, Costa vs. Vidak, 49-51

IL-8, Bean vs. Walsh, 48-49

KY-6, Chandler vs. Barr, 50-50

NY-25, Maffei vs. Buerkle, 51-49

VA-11, Connolly vs. Fimian, 49-49

WA-2, Larsen vs. Koster, 50-50.

So we're back to 8, not 7, uncalled. Republicans still have 64 pickups.

Jesse Kelly Loses a Heartbreaker in Arizona 8th

See his remarks here.

A third party Libertarian candidate bled off over 10,000 votes to allow the liberal incumbent Democrat Gabrielle Giffords to win by less than 4000 votes. Thanks a lot, pest.

That leaves 7 House races still not called. Republicans still have 64 pickups.

Better luck next time, Marine.

Why They Lost: House Democrat Casualty Lists for November 2, 2010

In politics it always pays to avoid controversy if you want to survive.

If I'm counting correctly, there are 64 Republican pickups from the Democrats in the House as of this morning over at Real Clear Politics, with 9 races still not called in Arizona (2), California (2), Illinois, Kentucky, New York, Virginia and Washington (Grijalva, Giffords, McNerney, Costa, Bean, Chandler, Maffei, Connolly and Larsen).

In 50 of these 64 races lost by Democrats, incumbents were defending seats, and 33 of those, or 66%, had voted FOR Obamacare in March, despite its unpopularity in the polls: Oberstar [L], Titus [f], Ortiz [L], Kirkpatrick [f], Mitchell [BD], Salazar [BDL], Markey [fBD], Pomeroy [BDL], Rodriguez [L], Hill [BDL], Boyd [BD], Klein, Spratt [L], Perriello [fL], Etheridge [L], Wilson [BDL], Boccieri [fL], Kosmas [f], Grayson [f], Halvorson [f], Foster, Hare, Schauer [f], Shea-Porter, Hall [L], Scott Murphy [BD], Driehaus [fL], Kilroy [f], Carney [BDL], Kanjorski [L], Dahlkemper [fBDL], Pat Murphy [fBD], and Kagen.

The remaining 17 incumbents lost despite voting AGAINST Obamacare: Minnick [fBD], Bright [fBDst], Sandlin [BD], Taylor [BDst], Nye [fBD], Boucher, Space [BDst], Marshall [BDst], Kratovil [fBD], Skelton [st], Childers [BDst], Adler [f], Teague [fst], McMahon [f], Arcuri [BD], Lincoln Davis [BDst] and Edwards.

20 of the 64 who lost were freshmen [marked f], representing 63% of the 32 freshmen elected with Obama in 2008, and 31% of the total.

Of 54 Blue Dogs on the coalition's list in March at the time of the Obamacare vote, 22 were defeated yesterday [marked BD], or 41% of that membership. 3 races were still too close to call: Chandler [st], Costa and Giffords.

Of 21 Stupak Amendment supporters who proved it by voting NO on Obamacare [marked st], 8 still lost yesterday. Of 32 more who proved they didn't really believe in the Stupak Amendment by voting YES on Obamacare [marked L], 16 lost.

The distribution of self-definitions shows that the group most likely to get booted was the fiscally conservative Blue Dogs (22 associations), undoubtedly because the voters saw that despite the self-identification their voting records were anything but fiscally prudent. "Methinks Thou dost protest too much."

Next most likely to get booted were freshmen (20 associations). Inexperience makes you vulnerable by definition. The vast majority of new business fails, which is why spawn are numbered in the millions.

Pro-lifers in name only come next in vulnerability (16 associations). It's best not to lie about matters so serious because you will be found out eventually.

The least vulnerable among these losing Democrats? Those who were pro-life and meant it (8 associations), and those who defined themselves not at all (7 associations).

Disinformation Election Headlines at Real Clear Politics Repudiated by Republican Tsunami

Compare Walter Shapiro's "The Democratic Debacle" at Politics Daily today here:

America has seen tidal wave off-year elections before (three, in fact, in the past 16 years). But what was epic about the glub-glub election of 2010 is that even with months of warning most imperiled Democrats could not find high enough ground.

In the House, Republicans gained a minimum of 60 seats, dethroning Nancy Pelosi as House speaker, probably making this the GOP's biggest off-year triumph since (gulp!) 1938 once all the votes are counted.


And these headlines from Real Clear Politics, which admittedly disappeared rather suddenly in early October, for a good belly laugh on this historic day for America:

Saturday, October 9, 2010: Dem: Election Won't Be So Bad After All - Tim Fernholz, American Prospect

Friday, October 1, 2010: Democrats Will Hold the House and Senate - Bob Shrum, The Week

Wednesday, Sept. 22, 2010: Why the Generic Ballot May Underestimate Dems - Nate Silver, NY Times

Tuesday, Sept. 21, 2010: GOP Has Tough Road to Win House - Martin Frost, Politico

Monday, Sept. 20, 2010: Tying GOP to Tea Parties is D's Best Hope - Michael Tomasky, The Guardian

Sunday, Sept. 19, 2010: Don't Forget That the Bailouts Worked - Fareed Zakaria, Newsweek [If they had worked we'd know it and wouldn't need to be reminded. After all, we are paying for it right now . . . and Will. Be. Forever.]

Sunday, Sept. 19, 2010: Landslide Midterm is Hardly Certain - Charles Blow, New York Times [Did we mention a landslide is hardly certain?]

Saturday, Sept. 18, 2010: Landslide Midterm is Hardly Certain - Charles Blow, New York Times

Friday, Sept. 17, 2010: Faustian Deal w/Tea Party Will Cost GOP Dearly - Bob Shrum, The Week [Hahahahahahahaha!]

Thursday, Sept. 16, 2010: David Plouffe: Tea Parties Help Democrats - Lloyd Grove, The Daily Beast [Yeah right, when pigs fly in formation]

Wednesday, Sept. 15, 2010: Pelosi: Democrats "Absolutely" Will Retain the House - The Hill [When pigs fly upside down]

Sunday, Sept. 12, 2010: Maybe All Isn't Lost for Democrats - Dick Polman, Philadelphia Inquirer

Sunday, Sept. 12, 2010: Democrats Can Win the House - Ben Crair, The Daily Beast [When pigs fly]

Saturday, Sept. 11, 2010: 10 Things Dems Could Do to Win - Thomas Geoghegan, The Nation [No. 10: Become Republicans]

Friday, Sept. 10, 2010: Dems' Gloom May Be Premature - David Corn, Politics Daily

Thursday, Sept. 9, 2010: It's Good to Have Obama on the Campaign Trail - Gene Lyons, Salon

Thursday, Sept. 9, 2010: Dem Strategists Pooh-Pooh the Polls - Dana Milbank, Washington Post

Thursday, Sept. 2, 2010: Democrats Doomed? Not So Fast - Susan Estrich, Creators