Five bank failures in 2023 to date costing the DIF $35.569 billion

 11-3-23 Citizens Bank of Iowa: cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund is $14.8 million

7-28-23 Heartland Tri-State Bank of Kansas: cost to the DIF is $54.2 million

5-1-23 First Republic Bank of California: cost to the DIF is $13.0 billion

3-12-23 Signature Bank of New York: cost to the DIF is $2.5 billion

3-10-23 Silicon Valley Bank of California: cost to the DIF is $20.0 billion

OK, you can safely return to hating the banks now

 

US Treasury yields have tanked 14% since March 8 amid bank failure fears

The yield curve aggregate averaged 4.674 on March 8. Now it averages 4.017.

Bills yields fell from an average 5.09 to 4.52 in nine days, 11%, after rising 6.5% in the month 2/8 to 3/8.

Notes yields fell from 4.45 to 3.55, a whopping 20%, after rising over 12% in the month after 2/8.

Bonds yields fell from 4.00 to 3.68, 8%, after rising nearly 6% in the month after 2/8.

It's been extremely difficult to trade the volatility. $TLT is up 5.31% ytd., but $AGG is up just 1.99% ytd. It is a fool's errand to invest in bonds when they behave like stocks.

Meanwhile $SPX is up 2.42% ytd.

This is my opinion, not advice.

The stocks of regional banks have taken a beating in the last ten days, but the banks are still standing

 

Today's toxic assets, if you're a bank, are AAA-rated 30-year fixed rate mortgages from 2020-2021, and 10-year and 20-year US Treasuries of the same vintage

A bank would normally keep AAA assets happily, and hold them to maturity in many instances.

Having to sell them in a rising interest rate environment is where all hell can break loose.

No one wants to buy a UST paying 0.89% when T-bills pay 4.5%, so you have to sell it at a loss to raise cash.

A bank without cash is a failed bank.

Be kind to your banker. He's not having a good week. Even if he didn't pay you interest like he should have since 2008.

 

Moody's missed not only Signature Bank's problems, but Silicon Valley Bank's as well

On Wednesday March 8, Moody’s still had an A3 rating on SVB Financial, owner of the now defunct Silicon Valley Bank, as it was already collapsing for all to see. Four notches into investment grade – a very respectable rating!

More.

The fools at Moody's have just cut their outlook for American banking to negative, but don't take it too seriously

The story is here.

As recently as the end of January, Moody's had rated Signature Bank, the bank which failed spectacularly over the weekend, investment grade.

Moody's completely missed the problems with Signature.

Their sweeping warnings in the wake of this miss should be taken with a truckload of salt. They're just trying to save face.

 

Total BS story about deposit flight contains zero evidence for the claim

 

The wizards of smart at Silicon Valley Bank loaded up on mortgage backed securities in the last few years, and when they needed to raise cash recently they had to sell some at a big loss

$1.8 billion.

That sparked the run.

The problems have been known for months by people like Chris Whalen.

This guy below actually tweeted out some particulars in January. This was no surprise.

Except to the federal regulators, who were completely asleep at the switch.

This is what happens when your bond portfolio is full of low-yielding securities. No one wants them when you have to sell them in the new higher interest rate environment. It's not a problem if you will "hold to maturity".

SVB wasn't very smart loading up on this stuff. Apparently they did not even hedge this otherwise foolish over-large position.

Hell, it's probably all California MBS, too. Think the outrageously overpriced homes, refinanced at rock bottom rates, of the very elite who have all their personal and business banking at SVB which is now blowing up. And all the second tier businesses and their employees dependent on them.

It's an inferno devouring their wealth from every side.

And they are screaming like stuck pigs for a bailout.

 

 

Ben Bernanke wins Nobel Prize in Economics for 495 bank failures under his leadership as Federal Reserve Chair Feb 2006-Feb 2014

 

 

The 495 failures were a huge improvement over the 9,000 bank failures during The Great Depression of the 1930s, his specialty of study in the 1980s, experts said under their breath.

On this date 10 years ago America had already celebrated its 94th bank failure for the year

Wut.

Bank Failure Friday: The 500th bank failure since February 2007 and the 8th failure in 2014

The banking crisis which began in 2007 has reached its 500th milestone. Columbia Savings Bank, Cincinnati, Ohio, failed today, the eighth bank failure of 2014, costing the FDIC $5.3 million.

"Congress created the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation in 1933 to restore public confidence in the nation's banking system", says the press release, as says every press release going back to the first failure of the current banking crisis seven years ago.

Instead read: Congress created the FDIC in 1933 to make the public believe the banks are sound even though they are not. Hell, the banks are designed under the Federal Reserve and the FDIC to be precisely NOT SOUND.

Extend and pretend works its way through, ever so quietly, ever so unremarked.

Arguably Obama's 2008 Election Caused All The Job Losses, And We Still Have Not Recovered

total nonfarm employees n.s.a. 1/07-2/14

Arguably the response of business to the election of Obama was outright fear, leading to record job losses. And just as arguably, Obama's class warfare rhetoric has justified those fears. The number one enemy of a communist after all, is a climber. You wouldn't know that of course because the socialist fellow travelers who've taught you and your kids since the 1960s conveniently left that out of the narrative. But that is a separate story.

The fact of the matter is, the so-called Great Recession had already been long in the tooth on election day 2008, and total nonfarm had declined just 2.7 million from its zenith in November 2007 at 139,443,000. But there is really nothing out of keeping for such a large decline given that total nonfarm usually falls off at the end of calendar years. A good example which raised no alarms at the time was in December 1998 when total nonfarm fell 2.7 million . . . in one month.

December 2008 was the worst month on record for t.n.f.

But more people lost their jobs in the first full month following the 2008 election than in any other month in the data series. For a country which supposedly saw Obama as a savior, the response of business was clearly otherwise: nearly 30 million Americans went on to make first time claims for unemployment in 2009 because they lost their jobs in his wake, 13.3 million more than in George Bush's best year 2006 when such claims came in just over 16 million. You can call business a bunch of spineless cowards who took the everyman for himself approach. But isn't that what the healthcare industry did when faced with ObamaCare? Play along to get along, or face the consequences. Few are the fighters for principle who sacrifice themselves for a cause. The only people we have who even make a pretence of doing that do it safely atop places like Berkshire Hathaway (taxes), Apple (global warming), Microsoft (birth control), the Oval Office and the well of the US Senate where no man can touch them.

total nonfarm employees, n.s.a., 2/07-2/14, monthly arrows

The data show that the bottom for total nonfarm did not drop out until December 2008. Nearly 3.7 million Americans lost their jobs in December 2008 alone, the most on record. November 2008 had been only a warning of what was coming. By the end of that month, in which the general election had occurred on November 4, just over a million total nonfarm employees lost their jobs. The dust settled at 135,656,000 on December 1st. Then as December unfolded, the bottom fell out with total nonfarm dropping to 131,965,000. And one year later, despite "jobs saved or created", the February 2009 stimulus, cash for clunkers, TARP and the GM, Chrysler and AIG bailouts, scores of big bank failures and trillions of dollars of cheap loans by the Federal Reserve to all and sundry banks and businesses here and abroad, total nonfarm fell another 4.2 million to 127,736,000.

And where are we today? On February 1, 2014, after 5 full years of Obama, total nonfarm is 136,183,000, barely 200,000 jobs ahead of where we were at this same point in 2007. While the trend has clearly been positive for total nonfarm, with a consistent pattern of higher, if muted, highs and lower lows alternating summers and winters as is typical of the data series, the profile of total nonfarm remains terribly weak.

usually work full time 2/07-2/14, n.s.a.

Consider that those who work usually full time today are 2.7 million fewer in number than at this same point in 2007, the record year for full time jobs and for total nonfarm jobs, despite adding 15 million to the population.

part time for economic reasons 2/07-2/14, s.a.

And while those who work usually part time are up nearly 2.4 million, those working part time for economic reasons remain up almost 3 million, seasonally adjusted, February 2007 to February 2014.

For the last four full years monthly job growth has averaged barely 167,000 new jobs per month. Compare that to a Clinton or Reagan when job growth clipped along at an average of 235,000-250,000 per month for years.

I predict jobs will come back when Obama goes away, unless of course Hillary Clinton becomes president. Right now I can't think of a better candidate to complete the job of eradicating the middle class. She'll burn through them like she does through jet fuel and vodka.

No bank failures so far tonight

The total stands at 13 for 2013.

Happy full moon everybody!

3 Recent Failed Banks Subsidiaries Of Troubled Lansing-Based Capitol Bancorp LTD

Story here in the Lansing State Journal.

Evidently the closure of the 13th bank to fail in 2013 in Scottsdale, Arizona was concluded on a Tuesday for prudential reasons related to the immediately previous two Capitol Bancorp-related closures last week.

Bank failures have normally occurred on Friday nights.

I wouldn't be surprised if there's more bad news to come about Capitol Bancorp LTD.

FoxBusiness Is Full Of Baloney About The Monetary Base

Throughout 2007, when the stock market reached its previous all time high in October of that year, the adjusted monetary base of the United States was very stable and averaged just $851 billion.

During the financial crisis month of September 2008, however, the base leaped up from that vicinity between September 10th and September 24th to $949 billion, and by Thanksgiving 2008 had skyrocketed all the way to $1.5 trillion, near which level it remained even as late as March 2009, when the stock market plummeted to its historic lows since 2002-2003.

The increase in the monetary base was a whopping $718 billion, most of it in response to bank failures and panic on Wall Street during a narrow window of two months in the fall of 2008, but the stock market tanked 56% from the October 2007 highs anyway by the following spring.

Now FoxBusiness is arguing, here, that the increase in the monetary base from March 2009 to today, $1.3 trillion, is somehow responsible for "juicing" the stock market's remarkable 134% rise since that low.

Nevermind the stable and relatively low monetary base had nothing to do with the 2007 highs, nor did the rapid expansion of the base by $718 billion forestall the dramatic collapse of the market in 2009, but FoxBusiness wants you to believe anyway that piling up the monetary base since March 2009 by $1.3 trillion is the reason the stock market is at its lofty heights today, $11.2 trillion higher in total market cap than in March 2009.

That's embarrassingly wrong. The expansion of the monetary base has been irrelevant to the stock market, but it is an important part of keeping the banking system solvent, which is what this entire episode has been about but no one really wants to discuss anymore even as the velocity of money makes new lows, for the obvious reason that if the banks go under, everything goes under, so ixnay on the anksbay, OK?

The Fascist Grip Of Banking: Rate Rigging In LIBOR, Now Also In Municipal Bonds

There is no corner of contemporary economic life which is not in thrall to state-sponsored banking, and so no corner of it which is not rigged to favor the players wielding the taxpayer backstop.

American-style fascism only seems most vivid when "banking's" losses are finally socialized through spectacular bailouts. Just as spectacular as the bailouts are the efforts to re-define nearly everything as banking in order to bring it all under its aegis. Think GE, GM, Chrysler, investment banking and AIG. That process of socialized losses continues apace on a smaller scale with every bank failure carefully orchestrated for Friday nights, to which Americans are now so thoroughly inured due to its frequency and efficiency. That is but the ubiquitous residual background radiation of the system's big bang, the collapse of banking's housing collateral, rapaciously used to leverage private shareholder and investor gains.

But even the spectacular blow-ups do not keep our attention for very long. Like the public servants who have succumbed to regulatory capture by industry, our anger is also subject to capture by the power of banking's propaganda, the central message of which is that the collapse of banking as we know it would mean nothing short of civilizational collapse. But it is merely their revolutionary version of civilization, not ours, based as it is on the dictum "How can you respect a man who needs you more than you need him?" Traditional Americans have always believed instead in "Owe no man anything".

Meanwhile the gains accruing to elites manipulating the levers of industries which have installed doors to the government are harder to ferret-out, the heads-they-win side of tails-you-lose. Lately it was LIBOR manipulation which came to the light, which has been rigged for far longer than since the latest financial crisis. Now the municipal bond market's municipal market data index, MMDI, is in the spotlight, according to this story in The New York Times, reproduced here:

Thomson Reuters, which owns Municipal Market Data, said on Monday that it “has been involved in discussions with regulators” about the rates, which influence the prices of bonds and derivatives in the $3 trillion municipal bond market.

The company released the statement after the municipal bond industry’s self-regulator, the Municipal Securities Rulemaking Board, said that its board was “concerned about the transparency” behind the creation of a few indexes used to set prices in the municipal bond market, the most important of which is the M.M.D. index.

What we may find from this is that local taxing districts have been paying way too much for roads, schools, libraries, cops and firemen, providing gains for the few financed once again on the backs of many (property) taxpayers.

Interactive Maps of US Bank Failures Since 2008

PortalSeven.com/banks/ here has outstanding bank failure data for every year and every state during the crisis, and before.

Here's an example showing the twelve failures in Michigan from 2008 to date (Georgia and Florida have had the most failures, with 77 and 60 respectively), with the majority concentrated around Detroit:

In Michigan 18 more banks remain on an unofficial list of banks with problems, based on publicly available information. The Feds do not disclose their list of banks with problems, for obvious reasons.

Q2 2011 GDP at 1.3 Percent, Q1 Revised Down Into the Tank to 0.4 Percent

Just how does Q1 go from 1.8, to 1.9, to 0.4? That's an error of only 79 percent.

Q4 2010 also was revised down, to 2.3 percent from 3.1 percent. That's an error of 26 percent.

And revisions going back to 2007 when the Dems took over the Congress under George Bush are even worse, saved for the end of July while everyone's on vacation and not paying attention. And of course it's Friday.

Which reminds me. I neglected to do Bank Failure Friday last week. There were some, but sometimes reporting on it feels like writing an obituary, and last Friday was filled with too much death already.

The GDP story is here.

Bank Failures By Year

2000: 002

2001: 004

2002: 011

2003: 003

2004: 004

2007: 003

2008: 025

2009: 140

2010: 157

Year to Date 2011: 40