Trump executive order reverses Biden's pause on new approvals of LNG projects

 It is little discussed, but Biden's pause on the new projects was based, in part, on the negative impact on prices paid by consumers because natural gas was being diverted to LNG exports. Reduced domestic supply has led to higher prices paid by consumers:

The current economic and environmental analyses DOE uses to underpin its LNG export authorizations are roughly five years old and no longer adequately account for considerations like potential energy cost increases for American consumers and manufacturers beyond current authorizations or the latest assessment of the impact of greenhouse gas emissions. 

Natural gas diverted to export already reached 10% of production in 2022.

Reported here:

The president reversed the Biden administration’s pause on new liquefied natural gas export facilities. Trump directed the Energy secretary to start reviewing new LNG projects as quickly as possible.     

Natural gas prices have exploded by 210% since Trump was elected in November.

US Treasury yields are steepening and by duration are normalizing

 This is actually a good thing.

Longer dated securities should pay more than shorter, unlike most of 2024 when Bills paid far more.

Bills yields on average on Friday match the Daily Federal Funds rate exactly, falling in tandem with it in 2024 from the 5.33 range to 4.33 now. They've been pretty stable at this level for five weeks now.

The fall in Bills yields actually ran in front of the Fed decision to make the first rate cut in September by many months.

The fall commenced after May when the Fed announced it would institute a slight decrease to its tighter money policy through balance sheet operations involving UST beginning in June.

Bills yields fell hard for four months into September even as core inflation year over year remained flat at 2.7% over the period. Investors locked in higher but rapidly disappearing return.

Yields on Notes and Bonds also plunged, but against most predictions they rebounded in the face of the Fed rate cuts, which is quite amusing. Longs got their lunch eaten.

The simplest explanation is that longer dated securities anticipate more inflation, and the Fed simply pushes on a string. Bond vigilantes demanded more return for the rising risk.

People who didn't appreciate fixed income turning into a casino like the stock market hid out in cash and did just fine. VMRXX returned 5.24% last year.

There are over $6 trillion in T-bills outstanding at the end of 2024 vs. $2 trillion to start 2018, out of a total of approximately $28 trillion total UST outstanding.

Unfortunately for buyers of houses and cars, long money is going to cost you more, as yields on Notes and Bonds climb again in anticipation of recalcitrant inflation and increased deficit spending under Trump.

The average four year new auto loan was 9.36% and the 30-year mortgage 6.93% last week.

 

Foods making new all time high average prices in November 2024

Whole Chicken 2.076

OJ 4.306

Coffee 6.868

Ice Cream 6.447

Pork, All Other 3.765

Beer 16oz 1.811

Stocks remain wildly overvalued and seriously underperforming

 The S&P 500 averaged 5,792.32 in October 2024 (the all-time high was on 10/18 at 5,864.67).

Nominal GDP was updated on Oct 30th at $29.349924 trillion for 3Q2024.

That yields a ratio of SPX/GDP of 197.35 vs. median of 81.

Stocks remain wildly, obscenely, off-the-chart overvalued.

The formula is GDPx = SPX.

29.35(81) = 2,377.

The market would have to fall 3,415 points just to hit median valuation at current GDP, or about 59%.

You can see a similar analysis here, where the median is 79.7 vs. current 200.7.

Real return from SPX since Aug 2000 is now about 5.1% per annum vs. 7.4% before that (including the Great Depression, the depression of 1920, and every collapse before that going back to 1871), 31% worse.

We are living through developments echoing the lunatic era of the 1920s, which ended in tears.

Owe no man anything . . ..

 

 

 

Sometimes it's not the economy stupid: Headline employment under Obama didn't recover until May 2014, but he got re-elected in 2012 anyway

 Six years and four months went by: Jan 2008-May 2014.

And economic confidence actually declined from -11 in 2012 to -10 in 2014 when it did!

It's one of the craziest things in US political history, comparable to FDR getting re-elected throughout the Great Depression, which his economic experimentation only made worse.

By October 2012, 72% said the effects of the Great Recession were still the most important problem, compared to 43% today in October 2024, but it didn't matter that Obama wasn't solving it. He beat Romney anyway.

Is this one of those sometimes?

The same phenomenon may be happening today, but in reverse.

Harris stands to lose despite economic indicators which are chugging along in her favor, or at least not falling apart, to which those 43% seem oblivious.

Civilian employment in July and September 2024 remains near the November 2023 peak. Core inflation is still too high at 2.7%, but it isn't in the 5s anymore like it was for four straight quarters. Congress has thrown the book at the economy since 2Q2020, with nominal GDP growing at an astounding 9.84% compound annual rate because of pandemic spending. That's been a double-edged sword, however, exploding the national debt, inflation, and interest rates.

But economic confidence is Obama-like negative, and has been since it crashed during the pandemic in April 2020 to -32 from its highest level in 20 years under Trump just two months before, in February 2020 at +41.

Trump didn't shut down the economy in 2020, but governors sure did. It was a stark demonstration of just how quickly the wrong leadership can make everything go to hell in a hand basket overnight. The people today aren't wrong to lack confidence.

Ominously for incumbent VP Harris, Gallup thinks 2024 is most analogous to 1992, when Americans booted the incumbent Bush 41 even though the recession had ended more than a year before in 1991.

Majority of Americans Feel Worse Off Than Four Years Ago

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- More than half of Americans (52%) say they and their family are worse off today than they were four years ago, while 39% say they are better off and 8% volunteer that they are about the same. The 2024 response is most similar to 1992 among presidential election years in which Gallup has asked the question. ...

With a majority of Americans feeling they are not better off than four years ago, economic confidence remaining low, and less than half of Americans saying now is a good time to find a quality job, the economy will be an important consideration at the ballot box this year. As inflation persists and economic concerns dominate voters' minds, the upcoming election may hinge on which candidate can best address these pressing issues.

 

We still live in a world of very diminished economic growth since The Great Recession

Real GDP 2007-2023, 16 years, compound annual growth rate: 1.905%.

All the other years, 1929-2007: 3.448%.

We're behind that by almost 45%.

Compare the 16 years of The Great Depression and WWII, 1929-1945: 4.743%.

Or the 16 years prior to The Great Recession, 1991-2007: 3.253%.

This is bad, but you knew that.

CNBC fact-checks Joe Biden, now that it doesn't matter

 But the article name-checks Donald Trump five times because he's an opponent of Fed decisions.

There's a whole movement out there that wants to End the Fed, composed of Republicans, Democrats, and libertarians, which CNBC is loathe to mention.

Many of them argue that the US 2-year Treasury Note should be the benchmark for the Federal Funds Effective Rate, not the whim of the Fed Chair and the Federal Open Market Committee, who are un-elected, well-connected, and VERY WELL PAID elites who watch out primarily for the interests of the banksters.

For example, despite the disastrous Zero Interest Rate Policy post-Great Recession, DGS2 resisted it and outran DFF throughout the period under Obama and Trump, and anticipated the recent inflationary outburst by starting to rise in the spring of 2021, a full year before the Fed moved to "combat inflation" by raising the funds rate in the spring of 2022. 

Similarly DGS2 also started to fall in November of 2023 despite no change to Fed policy, anticipating the recent decline of inflation rates by almost a year.

The role of the US Treasury Secretary, AS MUCH A CREATURE of the Executive as the Fed Chair, is also huge for interest rates because the Secretary decides how to divvy up the debt securities for auction by duration.

Biden's Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has been in the news for driving up the issuance in T-bills to 22% when 15% has been customary, which has contributed to longer rates falling and stocks rising, just in time for the election.

But the costs of this have been dramatic, financing deficit spending at the highest rates and driving interest payments on the debt to the third spot in the budget, behind only Social Security and Medicare.

This is your periodic reminder that the net worth of U.S. households is $151 trillion but there's only $2.3 trillion fiat currency in circulation anyway

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TNWBSHNO

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CURRCIR 

Meanwhile all the gold and silver in the world hardly close the gap: 

 

 

Inflation remains very, very profitable for corporations and federal government spendthrifts, at your expense

 

Tell me, Bwana: What mean GDP, why important?

 Bureau of Economic Analysis this morning here:

3Q2023 nominal GDP, first estimate: $27.6235 trillion

Nominal increase year over year in 3Q: 6.27%

Compound annual growth rate since 3Q2000: 4.375%

Compound annual growth rate 3Q1947-3Q2000: 7.275%

Underperformance from post-war, last 12 months: 13.8%

Underperformance from post-war, last 23 years: 39.86%

Current S&P 500 ~ 4175

Current ratio of S&P 500 to GDP: 151

Median ratio of same 1938-2019: 81

Current overvaluation of S&P 500 from median: 86.4%

Current fair value of S&P 500: 2238   

US Treasury yields making new highs for this cycle as of Oct 19, 2023

Massive Treasury issuance to pay for massive pandemic spending has driven yields higher.

 

It's the law of supply and demand: Increase the supply of US Treasury debt and the price goes down.

 

Previously issued securities paying lower interest rates drop in price because they are much more plentiful in comparison with the new issues paying higher rates which investors demand.

 

Who wants 'em?

 

Banks are estimated to be stuck with these dogs in quantities approaching what the Fed has let roll off, which is what they also must do. The collateral backing banks, insurance companies, pension funds, et cetera et cetera et cetera, suffers.  

The Federal Reserve Bank's role as a big buyer in the bond market has been curtailed since 2Q2022, removing its big price support role. As of 3Q2023 the balance sheet is down $768 billion as securities mature. That's about $51 billion rolling off per month, and no net buying to replace it.

 

The Fed has also raised the Federal Funds Rate to an average of 5.33 to combat inflation.

 

So yields have risen for such reasons to these records for this cycle to date, but it's all predicated on the US Treasury having to dilute the supply:

 

1MO 6.02 5/26/23 (debt ceiling disagreement)

3MO 5.63 10/6/23

6MO 5.61 8/25/23

1Y    5.49  9/27/23

 

2Y 5.19 10/17/23

3Y 5.03 10/18/23

5Y 4.95 10/19/23

7Y 5.00 10/19/23

10Y 4.98 10/19/23

 

20Y 5.30 10/19/23

30Y 5.11 10/19/23.

In the aggregate as of Oct 20 yields are up a net 22% year over year to an average of 5.25692 from 4.30846 when all the wizards of smart said they couldn't possibly go any higher without breaking something.

They're still saying that.

 

The lie of the day comes from Reuters via CNBC

... the national debt, which at $31.4 trillion is roughly equal to the annual output of the economy.

 

More.

 

1Q2023 GDP, 2nd estimate: Nominal: $26.4863 trillion.

 

118% is not "roughly equal".

 

And look what has happened to interest payments on the debt, which come out of current revenues. They have gone vertical. At $929 billion annualized, they represent 31.4% of current tax receipts annualized.

 

Everyone minimizing the gravity of this situation is whistling past the graveyard when government social benefits to persons already exceed the tax receipts.

 

This will continue until it can't, and great will be the fall of it.

 

 

Purchasing power of the US dollar is down 96.61% from 1913 in 2022 on an average basis

 The index average for 2022 is 34.2.

Here.

Distressed debt reaches $271 billion after five straight weeks of growth

 Growing Pile of Distressed Debt Signals Coming US Default Wave

(Bloomberg) -- A heap of distressed debt is expanding in the US corporate bond market and investors worry that a burst of defaults will follow. The amount of dollar-denominated bonds and loans trading at levels indicating distress is the largest since September 2020, reaching $271.3 billion last week after five straight weeks of growth, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. ... the supply of distressed debt is still a fraction of the almost $1 trillion peak level in 2020 . . ..     

With long-term Treasury investments down 32% year to date, and long-term investment grade down 30%, you can imagine what's happening downstream and behind the scenes.

Bloomberg cites Carnival Corp. as an example, which had to pay 6% for loans in 2021 but is paying 10.75% now. That's 79% more expensive for Carnival.

Have you tried to buy a house?

A 30-yr fixed rate mortgage would have cost you on average 3.14% one year ago. Today it'll cost you 7.08%, an increase of over 125%.

US home price plunge is ‘just beginning’ as housing market rapidly cools: economist

Do you own stocks?

You are still down over 18% year to date despite the 7% rebound in October.

 

The recent stock market rally can be rightly viewed as part of an orderly selling process which has been underway all year. The March high failed the January high, and the August high failed the March high. The current rally is unlikely to succeed the August high. It has to be remembered this is all occurring in the context of a rising interest rate environment, which is negative for stocks, housing, and bonds.

Bull market advocates, who have stocks to sell to you, don't forget, have persistently ignored the distorting effects of Fed interest rate suppression. In fact, they've counted on that suppression. They call it the Fed Put. They laugh at these puny Fed rate hikes, and make gazillions off the inflation trade. Now they're ignoring the unwind, too, which is affecting all debt. Stocks are debts, too, don't forget. Up or down, they make money off the direction. The bull market cheerleaders are worse than used car salesmen.

October 31 marks the end of the fiscal year for investment companies, who have dividends to distribute by calendar year's end to avoid taxation as registered investment companies. In an already down year, they have had a huge incentive to finish the fiscal year on as strong a note as possible. That may account for the strong October for stocks.

Normally the investment companies would be selling their losers by October 31 for tax-loss harvesting purposes. If that's happening you wouldn't know it from the monthly view of the S&P 500 in October. The DOW and the Russell 2000 were up even more. Even the NASDAQ is up in October.

But the S&P 500 low of the year did occur on October 12 at 3577, ringed by heavy selling on Sep 30 and Oct 14, after which it has been elevator up. That was probably the tax-loss harvesting for fiscal 2022.

In any event rising interest rates remain negative for the bond market, the housing market, and for stocks. The consequences of massive debt repricing are only just beginning to be felt. Stocks will hold out the longest because they can. First the bonds, then the housing, then the stocks. The rest of us are just collateral damage.

The expected 0.75 point Fed interest rate decision is Wednesday, November 2, less than one week before the election. Don't expect the Fed to do more than this, even though they damn well ought.   

The Fed was supposed to tighten its balance sheet starting Jun 15th: Nearly three months later it's down a measly $110 billion to . . . $8.822 TRILLION

 The Fed is all talk about combating inflation, no action.

Because the top 10% of the country has 89% of the money that way, dummy.

True populism would throw the bums out and end The Fed, but we haven't got any.

WALCL.

America and its people have added over $12 trillion to their total credit market debt outstanding just since 2019, but that has done little but stall the decline of debt growth

The $90 trillion millstone: We did it to ourselves.

We are now in the future we tapped in the past for the prosperity of "debt draws forward prosperity", and there's little here to be found.

From 1946 to 2008 when we hit the debt growth iceberg, real GDP grew at a compound annual rate of 3.324%. Since then it has fallen 49%, to 1.68%.

We should have stayed with capitalism in the post-war, where one risks actual savings instead of future notional tax, income, and fiat money "revenues". But capitalism went out the window a long time ago, bringing with it the end of the gold standard, the creation of the Fed, and the introduction of the income tax, among other horribles.

Payback is a bitch, and what can't be paid back won't. The rest comes out of your hide.

 

 

 

Housing market conditions update, now vs. then

 Housing market conditions, now vs. then:

Average borrower FICO score today: 751

In 2010: 699

Underwater today: virtually none (2.5% with less than 10% equity)

In 2011: more than 1 in 4 underwater (25% plus)

Today: 2.5 million ARMs (8% of mortgages)

In 2007: 13.1 million ARMs (36% of mortgages)

Facing resets today: 1.4 million ARMs (56%)

In 2007: 10 million (76%)

Mortgage delinquencies today: 2.1%

In 2010: 11.3%

 

Housing remains as unaffordable as ever. The cost of the median new one is up a whopping 45% in April 2022 vs. April 2020, to $450,600. 

More:

Here’s why this housing downturn is nothing like the last one

Today's inflation-adjusted price of gasoline from 1918 is $4.84, but we're averaging record prices well north of $5.00

 Calculator here:

We estimate it would take $4.84 on June 16, 2022 to have equal purchasing power with $0.25 on June 16, 1918.

For the 1918 price, see here.

You can see from this chart that the price of gasoline in 1918 was indeed about $0.25. Wholesale prices averaged about 20.6 cents in 1918.

As of three days ago the official government average actual price at 900 retail outlets was $5.107.

GasBuddy has the USA average at about $5.03 this morning.

LOL, the blog of the St. Louis Fed gaslights you on gasoline prices by jumping through hoops to make the current outrageous prices disappear

 While nominal gas prices have increased rapidly over the past few months, real gas prices were still lower than they were for most of the 2006-2014 period.

More in "Gaslighting gas prices", April 21, 2022.

They don't pay those economists the big bucks for nothing:

[W]e compute by dividing the nominal price by the consumer price index (CPI) and multiplying by 127.5, the value of the CPI in January 1990.

Talk about gaslighting.

Look, US Regular All Formulations (GASREGW), which is what the blog post used, peaked around the 4th of July in 2008 around $4.11/gallon. 

Here's what a popular inflation calculator says about that:

We estimate it would take $5.54 on June 12, 2022 to have equal purchasing power with $4.11 on July 4, 2008.     

Just using a simple CPI calculator here puts $4.11 in 2008 at $4.94  . . .  already IN 2020.

We are mostly certainly paying the highest prices ever for gasoline.

Be happy, right? At least we're not Hong Kong.

 

 

Median household income now buys about 17% of the median sales price of a house, a new low: Joe Biden is the Barack Obama of unaffordable housing, only worse

 Housing affordability has never been so bad.

The median sales price in 1Q2022 climbed to $428,700.

Median household income in January 2022 is estimated at $74,099, which buys 17.3% of the median house sold in the United States.

Official annual figures through 2020 are indicated in this chart.