This is your periodic reminder that the net worth of U.S. households is $151 trillion but there's only $2.3 trillion fiat currency in circulation anyway

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TNWBSHNO

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CURRCIR 

Meanwhile all the gold and silver in the world hardly close the gap: 

 

 

Core pce inflation, which excludes food and energy measures, is still high at 3.5% year over year in October 2023, down 0.2 points from September or 5.4%

 Price increases at 3.5% instead of 3.7% year over year. This level remains outside of most people's experience since the late 1990s.

The broad measure fell to 3.0% from 3.4%. The energy goods and services component yoy has been negative, that is deflationary, for eight months in a row. The food component was up 2.0% year over year in October but is now in its tenth month of declines out of twelve on a year over year measure monthly.

Declining energy input costs have been the story behind declining inflation measures overall, primarily natural gas which is twice as important to the U.S. economy as gasoline on a BTU basis.

The Biden administration's green energy policy is at war with the reason for the happy circumstance of declining inflation measures it finds itself in, and Biden could be sailing to re-election if he were instead supporting fossil fuel production, which would slay the inflation dragon dead.

Inflation remains very, very profitable for corporations and federal government spendthrifts, at your expense

 

There's a lot of clucking out there about multiple job holding

 Multiple job holding seems high at nearly 8.4 million, here.

But as a percent of the employed it is not, currently at 5.2%. In the go-go 1990s it was above 6%.

Multiple job holding generally is a sign of opportunity and good times, not economic stress and bad times. Obviously there is always a percentage of the workforce which can't find full-time work and works two part-time jobs. They now number almost 2 million, a very small part of the employment universe, which is near all-time highs in the range of 161 million.

Tell me, Bwana: What mean GDP, why important?

 Bureau of Economic Analysis this morning here:

3Q2023 nominal GDP, first estimate: $27.6235 trillion

Nominal increase year over year in 3Q: 6.27%

Compound annual growth rate since 3Q2000: 4.375%

Compound annual growth rate 3Q1947-3Q2000: 7.275%

Underperformance from post-war, last 12 months: 13.8%

Underperformance from post-war, last 23 years: 39.86%

Current S&P 500 ~ 4175

Current ratio of S&P 500 to GDP: 151

Median ratio of same 1938-2019: 81

Current overvaluation of S&P 500 from median: 86.4%

Current fair value of S&P 500: 2238   

US Treasury yields making new highs for this cycle as of Oct 19, 2023

Massive Treasury issuance to pay for massive pandemic spending has driven yields higher.

 

It's the law of supply and demand: Increase the supply of US Treasury debt and the price goes down.

 

Previously issued securities paying lower interest rates drop in price because they are much more plentiful in comparison with the new issues paying higher rates which investors demand.

 

Who wants 'em?

 

Banks are estimated to be stuck with these dogs in quantities approaching what the Fed has let roll off, which is what they also must do. The collateral backing banks, insurance companies, pension funds, et cetera et cetera et cetera, suffers.  

The Federal Reserve Bank's role as a big buyer in the bond market has been curtailed since 2Q2022, removing its big price support role. As of 3Q2023 the balance sheet is down $768 billion as securities mature. That's about $51 billion rolling off per month, and no net buying to replace it.

 

The Fed has also raised the Federal Funds Rate to an average of 5.33 to combat inflation.

 

So yields have risen for such reasons to these records for this cycle to date, but it's all predicated on the US Treasury having to dilute the supply:

 

1MO 6.02 5/26/23 (debt ceiling disagreement)

3MO 5.63 10/6/23

6MO 5.61 8/25/23

1Y    5.49  9/27/23

 

2Y 5.19 10/17/23

3Y 5.03 10/18/23

5Y 4.95 10/19/23

7Y 5.00 10/19/23

10Y 4.98 10/19/23

 

20Y 5.30 10/19/23

30Y 5.11 10/19/23.

In the aggregate as of Oct 20 yields are up a net 22% year over year to an average of 5.25692 from 4.30846 when all the wizards of smart said they couldn't possibly go any higher without breaking something.

They're still saying that.

 

Alfredo Ortiz for The Messenger discovers that permanently higher food prices are sticking it to consumers

 He points to food prices having gone up about 20% since Biden took office, here, because this index is up that much since Biden took office. He wonders why food prices are actually up much more than that.

He obviously doesn't understand how this works.

On a quarterly measure, and year over year, the increases for this index are as follows after Biden taking office in 1Q2021:

2Q2021 0.9%

3Q         3.3%

4Q         6.1%

1Q2022 8.7%

2Q       11.6%

3Q       13.2%

4Q       12.1%

1Q2023  9.9%

2Q          5.9%

3Q          3.0%.

 

Assume the worst example from the shopper's list:

 

"A pound of turkey breast went from $3.14 to $6.72, a 114% increase" from late 2020 until now.

 

$3.14 goes to $3.17 in 2Q2021, and so on down the list until you come up with $6.41 by 3Q2023, pretty close to the $6.72 from the example. Remember this index is for all food at home, not turkey specifically nor any other individual food item. Some food prices go up more than others. 

 

There's actually a turkey index. It's up a whopping 214%, not 20%. The shopper could be paying a lot more than $6.72 right now. Year over year prices were up 20% in 2021, and 72% in 2022 in the wake of an avian flu epidemic which wiped out the supply. In the first half of 2023 prices were up another 47% year over year.

Unless there's actual deflation in overall food prices, that is, sustained negative year over year reports instead of quarterly increase yoy after quarterly increase, higher prices are here to stay.

The unemployment rate rose to 3.8%, but not because people lost jobs

 The unemployment rate rose to 3.786% from 3.495% on a bigger 736k increase to the size of the labor force than to the employment level, not because people lost jobs.

The employment level actually made a new high in August 2023, but up a smaller 222k. 

The unemployment rate went up in August because record new high employment in August, 161.484m, is a smaller percentage of a new larger labor force in August, 167.839m than was the case in July: 96.2% in August vs. 96.5% in July = 3.8% and 3.5% unemployed respectively. 

And do not mix the limited Establishment Survey (122,000 businesses and agencies) total nonfarm jobs oranges (156.419m) with the unemployment rate Household Survey (60,000 households) whole universe of jobs apples and try to make them agree. They don't, and never will.

The Establishment Survey went up 187k in August, but the unemployment rate is not derived from that survey. 

 

 

The lie of the day comes from Reuters via CNBC

... the national debt, which at $31.4 trillion is roughly equal to the annual output of the economy.

 

More.

 

1Q2023 GDP, 2nd estimate: Nominal: $26.4863 trillion.

 

118% is not "roughly equal".

 

And look what has happened to interest payments on the debt, which come out of current revenues. They have gone vertical. At $929 billion annualized, they represent 31.4% of current tax receipts annualized.

 

Everyone minimizing the gravity of this situation is whistling past the graveyard when government social benefits to persons already exceed the tax receipts.

 

This will continue until it can't, and great will be the fall of it.

 

 

Purchasing power of the US dollar is down 96.61% from 1913 in 2022 on an average basis

 The index average for 2022 is 34.2.

Here.

Both full time jobs and overall civilian employment in Jan 2023 remain relatively strong but both are far from US potential: 12 million more could be working but are not

Full time as a percentage of civilian population dropped to 49.32% in January 2023 from 49.77% in December.

 

Peak full time at 53.6% in 2000 applied to 2023 would mean 10 million more working full time than actually do.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Civilian employment as a percentage of civilian population dropped to 59.67% in January 2023 from 59.99% in December.

 

Peak employment at 64.4% in 2000 applied to 2023 would mean 12 million more working at all jobs than actually do.

 

Pathetic underperformance.

 

The shortfall with peak manufacturing jobs in 1979 at 19.4 million was 6.6 million in 2022. 

 

 

Distressed debt reaches $271 billion after five straight weeks of growth

 Growing Pile of Distressed Debt Signals Coming US Default Wave

(Bloomberg) -- A heap of distressed debt is expanding in the US corporate bond market and investors worry that a burst of defaults will follow. The amount of dollar-denominated bonds and loans trading at levels indicating distress is the largest since September 2020, reaching $271.3 billion last week after five straight weeks of growth, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. ... the supply of distressed debt is still a fraction of the almost $1 trillion peak level in 2020 . . ..     

With long-term Treasury investments down 32% year to date, and long-term investment grade down 30%, you can imagine what's happening downstream and behind the scenes.

Bloomberg cites Carnival Corp. as an example, which had to pay 6% for loans in 2021 but is paying 10.75% now. That's 79% more expensive for Carnival.

Have you tried to buy a house?

A 30-yr fixed rate mortgage would have cost you on average 3.14% one year ago. Today it'll cost you 7.08%, an increase of over 125%.

US home price plunge is ‘just beginning’ as housing market rapidly cools: economist

Do you own stocks?

You are still down over 18% year to date despite the 7% rebound in October.

 

The recent stock market rally can be rightly viewed as part of an orderly selling process which has been underway all year. The March high failed the January high, and the August high failed the March high. The current rally is unlikely to succeed the August high. It has to be remembered this is all occurring in the context of a rising interest rate environment, which is negative for stocks, housing, and bonds.

Bull market advocates, who have stocks to sell to you, don't forget, have persistently ignored the distorting effects of Fed interest rate suppression. In fact, they've counted on that suppression. They call it the Fed Put. They laugh at these puny Fed rate hikes, and make gazillions off the inflation trade. Now they're ignoring the unwind, too, which is affecting all debt. Stocks are debts, too, don't forget. Up or down, they make money off the direction. The bull market cheerleaders are worse than used car salesmen.

October 31 marks the end of the fiscal year for investment companies, who have dividends to distribute by calendar year's end to avoid taxation as registered investment companies. In an already down year, they have had a huge incentive to finish the fiscal year on as strong a note as possible. That may account for the strong October for stocks.

Normally the investment companies would be selling their losers by October 31 for tax-loss harvesting purposes. If that's happening you wouldn't know it from the monthly view of the S&P 500 in October. The DOW and the Russell 2000 were up even more. Even the NASDAQ is up in October.

But the S&P 500 low of the year did occur on October 12 at 3577, ringed by heavy selling on Sep 30 and Oct 14, after which it has been elevator up. That was probably the tax-loss harvesting for fiscal 2022.

In any event rising interest rates remain negative for the bond market, the housing market, and for stocks. The consequences of massive debt repricing are only just beginning to be felt. Stocks will hold out the longest because they can. First the bonds, then the housing, then the stocks. The rest of us are just collateral damage.

The expected 0.75 point Fed interest rate decision is Wednesday, November 2, less than one week before the election. Don't expect the Fed to do more than this, even though they damn well ought.   

The Fed was supposed to tighten its balance sheet starting Jun 15th: Nearly three months later it's down a measly $110 billion to . . . $8.822 TRILLION

 The Fed is all talk about combating inflation, no action.

Because the top 10% of the country has 89% of the money that way, dummy.

True populism would throw the bums out and end The Fed, but we haven't got any.

WALCL.

America and its people have added over $12 trillion to their total credit market debt outstanding just since 2019, but that has done little but stall the decline of debt growth

The $90 trillion millstone: We did it to ourselves.

We are now in the future we tapped in the past for the prosperity of "debt draws forward prosperity", and there's little here to be found.

From 1946 to 2008 when we hit the debt growth iceberg, real GDP grew at a compound annual rate of 3.324%. Since then it has fallen 49%, to 1.68%.

We should have stayed with capitalism in the post-war, where one risks actual savings instead of future notional tax, income, and fiat money "revenues". But capitalism went out the window a long time ago, bringing with it the end of the gold standard, the creation of the Fed, and the introduction of the income tax, among other horribles.

Payback is a bitch, and what can't be paid back won't. The rest comes out of your hide.

 

 

 

Fixed it for ya: Stonks continue to laugh at puny Fed rate hikes as interest rate arbitrage is defacto Fed policy

The stock market is liking Fed rate hikes this year, unlike in the past

Arbitrage.

This year's drinking word.

DFF: 1.58%.

CPIAUCNS: 9.1%.

Hey, watch me borrow cheap, buy a trailer park, and raise the rents and fees on little old ladies on Social Security.

We're goin' to Vegas, baby!

LOL Drudge, a one per cent Fed Funds rate hike from here would take it from 1.58 to 1.5958, silly

 A 100 basis point rise, as in the story, would take it to 2.58, an increase of 63%, which is the draconian kind of thing Cathie Wood likes to dramatize.

But no one understands draconian. In a world of superlatives where everything is awesome, the smallest changes are blown all out of proportion.

Draconian would be raising the rate at least to the level of inflation, now 9.1% year over year (not seasonally adjusted).

Actual draconian is necessary.

But these are not serious people. None of them.

Housing market conditions update, now vs. then

 Housing market conditions, now vs. then:

Average borrower FICO score today: 751

In 2010: 699

Underwater today: virtually none (2.5% with less than 10% equity)

In 2011: more than 1 in 4 underwater (25% plus)

Today: 2.5 million ARMs (8% of mortgages)

In 2007: 13.1 million ARMs (36% of mortgages)

Facing resets today: 1.4 million ARMs (56%)

In 2007: 10 million (76%)

Mortgage delinquencies today: 2.1%

In 2010: 11.3%

 

Housing remains as unaffordable as ever. The cost of the median new one is up a whopping 45% in April 2022 vs. April 2020, to $450,600. 

More:

Here’s why this housing downturn is nothing like the last one

Perverse anti-capitalist AP Obama says inflation had been under control since the early 1980s, blames inflation now on "robust recovery from the pandemic"

 You can't make this shit up.

AP Obama, here:

Inflation in the United States, which had been under control since the early 1980s, resurged with a vengeance just over a year ago, largely a consequence of the economy’s unexpectedly robust recovery from the pandemic recession. The rebound caught businesses by surprise and led to shortages, delayed shipments — and higher prices.

Inflation averaged 4.75% 1981-1990 inclusive. You can't call that "under control". The FedFunds rate averaged 9.4% over that same period. The one halved your nest egg in about 15 years while the other halved what was left in 7.5.

If that's success I'd hate to see failure.

While the Fed fiddles around with interest rates as if they controlled anything, oh look! over there! a deer!, it has presided over an orgy of balance sheet expansion of $7.7 trillion since 2008 as the Treasury has flooded the economy with $1.5 trillion in new currency and the Congress of idiots has spent us blind with $15.75 trillion beyond the 2008 baseline ballooning the total debt to $30 trillion by the end of 2021 so that it's three times the size that it was just 14 years ago.

An economy which runs only on going deep into debt is not a capitalist economy.

It's a Chinese communist economy.

  

Today's inflation-adjusted price of gasoline from 1918 is $4.84, but we're averaging record prices well north of $5.00

 Calculator here:

We estimate it would take $4.84 on June 16, 2022 to have equal purchasing power with $0.25 on June 16, 1918.

For the 1918 price, see here.

You can see from this chart that the price of gasoline in 1918 was indeed about $0.25. Wholesale prices averaged about 20.6 cents in 1918.

As of three days ago the official government average actual price at 900 retail outlets was $5.107.

GasBuddy has the USA average at about $5.03 this morning.

Stonks laugh again after Powell's miserable 75 basis point hike to fight inflation

 The rate is now 1.52% vs. CPI up 8.5% year over year and the all commodities Producer Price Index up 21.5% year over year.

This isn't being tough.

It's a joke perpetrated on an ignorant public like all the other jokes of our time, like George Floyd, Caitlin Jenner, and Jan 6.