A 485-million-year history of Earth’s surface temperature
Showing posts with label temperature. Show all posts
Showing posts with label temperature. Show all posts
Saturday, September 21, 2024
Friday, September 20, 2024
ROFLMAO WaPo's "most rigorous reconstruction of Earth’s past [Phanerozoic] temperatures ever produced" surprises Michael Mann, says human-caused warming will not make the planet uninhabitable
The article has this response from Michael Mann:
The timeline, published Thursday in the journal Science, is the most
rigorous reconstruction of Earth’s past temperatures ever produced, the
authors say. ...
Michael Mann, a climate scientist at the University of Pennsylvania who is known for his analyses of past global temperatures, said he was also surprised by the suggestion that the planet got so warm. The finding supports many scientists’ concern that feedback loops in the Earth system could lead to much higher temperatures than most climate models predict, he wrote in an email. But it’s also possible that the data assimilation assumes too much warming and is missing factors that might forestall a runaway greenhouse effect. “While I applaud the authors for this ambitious and thoughtful study, I am skeptical about the specific, quantitative conclusions,” Mann said. ...
Even under the worst-case scenarios, human-caused warming will not push the Earth beyond the bounds of habitability.
The article, which places us today in some of the still coolest climate conditions in 500 million years, never connects the dots.
It maintains that a dramatic warming event 250 million years ago caused the largest mass extinction ever, spewing carbon dioxide and other gases into the atmosphere, 25 million years BEFORE the first mammals appeared, who breathe the OXYGEN emitted by carbon dioxide consuming PLANTS, who then in their turn THRIVED for 125 million years under EVEN WARMER conditions than that extinction event produced.
Evolution was evidently turbocharged by this warming and its carbon dioxide, but then suddenly the first humans supposedly started to evolve 6.5 million years ago at the end of 50 million years of cooling conditions, WHEN THE TEMPERATURE WAS 62.6 F*, and continued to evolve into modern humans 300,000 years ago just as temperature KEPT FALLING to the coldest point in the record (51.8 F).
How did that happen?
The study authors are worried about what warmer conditions in the future will mean for humans, but seem oddly uninterested in how humans supposedly evolved in relatively much cooler conditions.
Maybe we don't really understand the evolution of mammals. Maybe humans are much older than the record indicates, and much more resilient.
At
its hottest, the study suggests, the Earth’s average temperature
reached 96.8 degrees Fahrenheit (36 degrees Celsius) — far higher than
the historic 58.96 F (14.98 C) the planet hit last year. ...
At the timeline’s start, some 485 million years ago, Earth was in what is known as a hothouse climate, with no polar ice caps and average temperatures above 86 F (30 C). ...
For most of the Phanerozoic, the research suggests, average temperatures have exceeded 71.6 F (22 C), with little or no ice at the poles. ...
But humans evolved during the coldest epoch of the Phanerozoic, when global average temperatures were as low as 51.8 F (11 C).
Without rapid action to curb greenhouse gas emissions,
scientists say, global temperatures could reach nearly 62.6 F (17 C)
by the end of the century — a level not seen in the timeline since the
* Miocene epoch, more than 5 million years ago.
Wednesday, February 21, 2024
Trend for lowest minimum temperature in Grand Rapids, MI 1896-2024
The trend is colder by almost 2 degrees F for lowest minimum temperature over 129 years at KGRR.
This chart shows, like the charts for heating degree days or average temperature discussed earlier, the boat anchor for temperature which is 1943-1997. The anchor is heavy enough to keep the mean minimum since 1963 lower than before it, at -9F vs. -6F, despite all the recent warming.
Mean lowest minimum temperature:
1896-1943: -5F (48yrs)
1943-1997: -10F (55yrs)
1997-2024 to date: -5F (28yrs).
Wednesday, February 7, 2024
Trend for annual mean average temperature in Grand Rapids, Michigan 1898-2023
The mean has risen 0.1 degrees F 1898-1963 at 48.2 shown, to 48.3 1963-2023, which is 0.2%.
The uptrend traverses about 0.9 degrees F over 125 years.
Planet's on FIRE lol.
Could easily be just heat island effect. The mean for average temperature is definitely warmer since 1997:
1997-2023: 49.4 (27yrs)
1943-1997: 47.5 (55yrs)
1898-1943: 48.4 (46yrs).
The relatively colder second half of the 20th century remains the noteworthy anchor of this graph's center.
Wednesday, December 13, 2023
Tuesday, August 22, 2023
This is roflmao material: Study finds 6.189 million deaths annually from cold, 0.638 million from heat, and can't bring itself to say so
For every heat death, there are 9.7 from cold.
The world does not have a heat problem.
It continues to have a cold problem.
Think how much worse cold deaths would be without fossil fuels to keep us warm, make fertilizers, and grow food. But these people cannot bring themselves to say that, no. Cold related deaths must be down slightly over a minuscule measuring period because of global warming!
A sane world would be focusing on the disparity of 6.189 million cold deaths.
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| Our World In Data |
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| Our World In Data |
Highlights in red.
https://www.monash.edu/medicine/news/latest/2021-articles/worlds-largest-study-of-global-climate-related-mortality-links-5-million-deaths-a-year-to-abnormal-temperatures
monash.edu
World’s largest study of global climate related mortality links 5 million deaths a year to abnormal temperatures
08 July 2021
More than five million extra deaths a year can be attributed to abnormal hot and cold temperatures, according to a world first international study led by Monash University.
The study found deaths related to hot temperatures increased in all regions from 2000 to 2019, indicating that global warming due to climate change will make this mortality figure worse in the future.
The international research team, led by Monash University’s Professor Yuming Guo, Dr Shanshan Li, and Dr Qi Zhao from Shandong University in China – and published today in The Lancet Planetary Health – looked at mortality and temperature data across the world from 2000 to 2019, a period when global temperatures rose by 0.26C per decade.
The study, the first to definitively link above and below optimal temperatures (corresponding to minimum mortality temperatures) to annual increases in mortality, found 9.43 per cent of global deaths could be attributed to cold and hot temperatures. This equates to 74 excess deaths for every 100,000 people, with most deaths caused by cold exposure.
The data reveals geographic differences in the impact of non-optimal temperatures on mortality, with Eastern Europe and Sub-Saharan Africa having the highest heat and cold-related excess death rates.
Importantly, cold-related death decreased 0.51 per cent from 2000 to 2019, while heat-related death increased 0.21 per cent, leading to a reduction in net mortality due to cold and hot temperatures.
The largest decline of net mortality occurred in Southeast Asia while there was temporal increase in South Asia and Europe.
Professor Guo, from the Monash University School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, said this shows global warming may “slightly reduce the number of temperature-related deaths, largely because of the lessening in cold-related mortality, however in the long-term climate change is expected to increase the mortality burden because hot-related mortality would be continuing to increase”.
Professor Guo said previous studies had looked at temperature-related mortality within a single country or region.
“This is the first study to get a global overview of mortality due to non-optimal temperature conditions between 2000 and 2019, the hottest period since the Pre-Industrial era,” he said.
“Importantly, we used 43 countries’ baseline data across five continents with different climates, socioeconomic and demographic conditions and differing levels of infrastructure and public health services – so the study had a large and varied sample size, unlike previous studies.”
The mortality data from this groundbreaking Monash study is significantly higher than the second-largest study published in 2015, which was based on 74 million deaths across 13 countries/regions and estimated 7.7 per cent of deaths were related to cold and hot temperatures.
Professor Guo said that showed “the importance of taking data from all points of the globe, in order to get a more accurate understanding of the real impact of non-optimal temperatures under climate change”.
Of the global deaths attributed to abnormal cold and heat, the study found:
- More than half occurred in Asia, particularly in East and South Asia
- Europe had the highest excess death rates per 100,000 due to heat exposure
- Sub-Saharan Africa had the highest death rates per 100,000 due to exposure to cold
Professor Guo understanding the geographic patterns of temperature-related mortality “is important for the international collaboration in developing policies and strategies in climate change mitigation and adaptation and health protection.”
ANNUAL DEATHS DUE TO ABNORMAL TEMPS BY REGION:
- Africa – 1.2 million
- Asia – 2.6 million
- Europe – 835,000
- South America – 141,000
- UK – 52,000
- US – 173,600
- China – 1.04 million
- India – 74,000
- Australia – 16,500
ANNUAL DEATHS DUE TO COLD TEMPS BY REGION:
- Africa – 1.18 million
- Asia – 2.4 million
- Europe – 657,000
- South America – 116,000
- UK – 44,600
- US – 154,800
- China – 967,000
- India – 655,400
- Australia – 14,200
ANNUAL DEATHS DUE TO HIGH TEMPS BY REGION
- Africa – 25,550
- Asia – 224,000
- Europe – 178,700
- South America – 25,250
- UK – 8000
- US – 18,750
- China – 71,300
- India – 83,700
- Australia – 2300
Sunday, August 13, 2023
Friday, July 28, 2023
Average temperature year to date is still below normal in Phoenix, as is average max temp year to date, and yet they persist
Phoenix brings in refrigerated morgues to prep for heat-related deaths...
"as backup"
"we typically see a surge in intakes to the Office of the Medical Examiner (OME) in July"
Average temperature year to date is still below normal also in Yuma and Tucson.
Wednesday, July 19, 2023
LOL WaPo: "Global warming has brought a steady increase in average temperatures"
Except it hasn't. Average temperature in Phoenix is still running 1 deg. F below normal year-to-date.
Mean average annual temperature in Phoenix is 72.2 deg. F since 1895. Year-to-date it's 72.9. In 1974, the year of its big June heat wave, it was 73.1. The hottest year ever by average temperature was six years ago, when Phoenix averaged 77.3.
WaPo didn't check apparently, or simply omitted the inconvenient data.
Same with Reno, NV and Las Vegas, NV, both of which are mentioned in the story.
Reno is running 2.8 deg. F below normal year-to-date. Las Vegas is running 2.4 deg. F below normal.
El Paso is indeed setting records, but year-to-date its average temperature is still only 1.5 deg. F above normal. Annualized it would make the top ten warmest years ever, but the year is far from over.
Either way, WaPo is simply full of it, as usual.
It's also worth mentioning the special pleading going on.
WaPo cites the June 1974 Phoenix climatological records as proof that it's hotter now than during that heat wave:
Temperatures have averaged above 101 degrees in Phoenix over the past 17 days. That is significantly hotter than another record-setting heat wave, when the city surpassed 110 degrees on 18 consecutive days in 1974. During that stretch, temperatures averaged 96.5 degrees.
The June 1974 data is the same data The Weather Gods have now declared unreliable, but WaPo wants to have it both ways when the micro-average-comparisons are convenient, you know, like Hillary or Hunter, one law for me, another for thee:
Reliable observation times are not available prior to 1982.
Sunday, July 16, 2023
A random list of U.S. cities with above average temperature year to date coincidentally averages +1.7 degrees F
Checked yesterday:
Seattle, WA +0.2 degrees F
Baton Rouge, LA +4.3
Minneapolis, MN +1.1
DFW, TX +2.3
Grand Rapids, MI +1.7
Miami, FL +2.8
Pensacola, FL +3.3
Milwaukee, WI +2.2
Juneau, AK +0.8
Albany, NY +2.7
Tulsa, OK +0.2
Helena, MT +0.5
Omaha, NE +0.10
Concord, NH +2.2
Burlington, VT +2.7
Ft. Wayne, IN +2.1
Marquette, MI +1.5
Duluth, MN +0.2
Memphis, TN +1.5
The anomaly for Grand Rapids, where I live, year-to-date is 3.5% above 48.2 degrees F, the mean average annual temperature going back to the 1890s.
The peak full year anomaly for Grand Rapids was in 2012: 9.5% above normal.
So if 2023 is a climate emergency, what was 2012?
Factor in the 10 cities with below normal temperatures from the previous post and the 2023 anomaly year to date drops to +0.55 degrees F for 29 randomly chosen locations (my yellow legal pad has 28 blue lines).
Enjoy the beach.
A random list of U.S. cities with below average temperature year to date
Checked yesterday:
Denver, CO -2.9 degrees F
Redding, CA -1.3
Phoenix, AZ -1.2
Fairbanks, AK -0.7
Nome, AK -3.6
Death Valley, CA -1.7
Bismarck, ND -1.9
Cheyenne, WY -1.8
Albuquerque, NM -0.7
Portland, OR -0.4
Saturday, July 15, 2023
Death Valley, CA, Climate Emergency ROFLMAO, where year-to-date average temperature is running 1.7 degrees F below normal
If it's in The Grauniad, it's probably wrong.
Wednesday, July 5, 2023
All you need to know about the hottest day ever
Tuesday’s global average temperature was calculated by a model . . . to estimate daily average temperatures starting in 1979.
“This is our ‘best guess’ of what the surface temperature at each point on earth was yesterday,” [Paolo Ceppi] said.
WaPo, of course.
Meanwhile, back in the real world of actual measurement, the highest maximum at KGRR so far in 2023 was 91 degrees F, on three days in June.
And the hottest 4th of July was way back in 1911. Yesterday made it to 89.
Maximum temperature observed has been in decline here for decades.
Tuesday, July 4, 2023
Friday, June 16, 2023
Trend for average temperature in Grand Rapids, Michigan shows an anomaly of less than +0.5 degrees F after 124 years
Could be just a heat island effect from KGRR.
Saturday, April 22, 2023
Climate Update for KGRR: 1Q2023
Climate Update for KGRR: 1Q2023 since 1892
Average temperature, mean: 27.5F.
Average temperature, actual: 32.7F; Anomaly: 19%.
Compare 2012 actual: 37.4F; Anomaly 36%.
January 2023 was the fifth warmest January on record by average temperature.
February was the thirteenth warmest February on record by average temperature.
The March average temperature anomaly was comparatively insignificant at 3.8%.
Heating degree days, mean: 3354.
Heating degree days, actual: 2880; Anomaly: 14%.
Compare 2012: 2505 actual; Anomaly: 25%.
January ranked fifth for fewest HDD in January.
February ranked tenth for fewest HDD in February.
The March heating degree day anomaly was comparatively insignificant at 4.4%.
Snowfall, mean: 40.8".
Snowfall, actual: 42.5".
March 2023 was the fourth snowiest March on record with 23.3".
Saturday, February 4, 2023
Natural gas prices have collapsed from the summer on unseasonably warm January temperatures meeting 2022 high production levels
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| top lines show full 2022 and start of 2023 |
Grand Rapids, MI, had its 5th warmest January by average temperature in Jan 2023 since 1892. Case is similar in many US cities which broke into the top 10 warmest Januaries on record, including Indy, Syracuse NY, Columbus OH, and Madison WI.
Sunday, January 1, 2023
Climate Update for KGRR 2022
Mean average temperature in Grand Rapids, Michigan since 1892: 48.2 degrees F.
Mean average temperature in 2022: 48.7.
That is all.
Sunday, December 25, 2022
Tennessee has had plenty of much colder temperatures than this Christmas and never had to turn off the power before, but that was before they went insane
What we know: TVA ordered rolling blackouts for the first time in 90 years amid freezing temps
Tennessee Valley Authority retired 3,370 MW of coal electric power capacity in 2012, 2017, and 2018.
The reason for that isn't because the plants were old, built in the 1950s. TVA still operates a bunch of much older hydroelectric plants dating back as far as 1911.
It's pure anti-fossil fuel ideology driving that, and foolishly allocating new capacity to solar and wind, which can't cut it.
And that's why they had to shut off the power in Tennessee for the first time.
The damn fools got 0.7 inches of snow and said it was one inch deep, too.
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