Of course David Plouffe didn't see leads in the internal polling in early Oct. They were disappearing.
RCP polling averages moved PA to Trump by Sep 30th, MI by Oct 9th, NV by Oct 12th, and WI by Oct 18th.
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| Oct 17th |
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| Oct 18th |
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| September 19th Harris ahead with 276 |
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| September 29th Trump ahead 281 |
Yeah, and the preferred gauge is core dammit, 2.8%, not the headline 2.3%.
Fed’s preferred inflation gauge rises to 2.3% annually, meeting expectations
We have been range-bound since April, averaging 2.7% year over year for six months.
The Fed is making ZERO progress, and yet . . .
... traders increased their bets that the Fed would approve another rate cut in December.
The Nancy Pelosi/Barack Obama/Jane Fonda-Rob Reiner cabal which ousted Joe Biden deserves all the scorn it has received, and more.
In February 2024, when 2023 articles from this cabal about dumping Kamala Harris were in the rearview mirror, Harris was under-performing Biden v Trump by just one point, and Harris v Trump was doing 7 points better than Gavin Newsom v Trump and 10 points better than Gretchen Whitmer v Trump. There was no alternative to Joe but Kamala.
Emerson here.
And Joe always knew that, which is why he immediately endorsed Harris on the Sunday of the July coup. He knew she was weak, but he knew her Democrat competition was weaker.
In the end Trump's win over Harris was by only 1.61 points, half what Emerson had predicted, and almost the one point by which Emerson had predicted Trump would beat Biden, the stronger candidate.
Democrats should never have dumped Joe Biden.
They panicked, and the panic lost them The White House. Had they rallied around their president, he might have survived. Instead they lost their nerve and abandoned him to the predator.
Democrats have too many herd followers, not enough leaders. And had Harris truly been a leader, she would have rallied the troops to her president, and she did not. And the pressure from the herd is also what made Joe Biden drop out, signaling his weakness.
Donald Trump, on the other hand, got bloodied by a gunman but defiantly got up and continued to fight, just as he's done all along, rallying his followers by himself to himself, the simple elemental difference between winning and losing.
Trump’s second administration set to be filled with losers
At least 17 of his picks have previously lost elections:
The country of 84 million people has 579 bunkers, mostly from the second world war and the cold war era, which can provide shelter for 480,000 people, down from about 2,000 bunkers previously.
Maybe try Schlachthof Fünf.
It's a feature of a libertarian country, not a bug.
And Roger Kimball should know better.
Kimball completely underestimates the role that will be played by the federal government employee unions in opposing Trump's efforts to axe them. And it's downright preposterous to think that the Leviathan State is going to be unraveled by July 4, 2026 when it took literally decades to erect it.
Trump will fail to drain the swamp, and it will consume all the valuable energy of his victory, too, keeping him from succeeding on the agenda items which are within his reach. His actions might even strengthen those unions. His own new Labor Secretary actually advocates for that!
Democrats should be encouraged by this.
They are going to have a field day litigating everything Musk and Ramaswamy try to shut down, which will drag everything out interminably. Liberals funded the hapless Kamala Harris to the tune of $1 billion, so I'm confident the Marc Eliases of the Democrat Party will shift the Resistance to this effort with a similar level of support because it has a high likelihood of hamstringing Trump in the same way Russia Russia Russia did.
It's disappointing that Republicans don't understand that Trump is a deeply divisive transitional figure, not a transformational one, but Democrats made the same mistake with Joe Biden, until it was too late, on whom they turned as on a dime.
A pro-abortion RFK Jr. at HHS. A pro-union Chavez-DeRemer at Labor. Lefty Democrat Tulsi Gabbard as Director of National Intelligence. And gay George Soros adviser Scott Bessent at Treasury.
Mike Allen of AXIOS reminds me of no one so much as George W. Bush: "There is no conservative movement. I redefined the Republican Party".
I think Mike is in a perpetual state of PTSD because his father was a John Bircher.
Donald Trump's problem is that no real conservative wants to be associated with his lame duck brand, so he's got to find people SOMEWHERE to serve in his hapless administration. Might as well be lefties and liberals and Jeb Bush retreads like Pam Bondi at the Department of Justice after the Gaetz flameout.
Meanwhile, Donald J. Trump and George W. Bush are exactly the same person, except Georgie actually got more than 49.83% of the vote.
“I showed up in the 101st Airborne Division, in one of the most storied units in our nation’s history, with a bunch of combat vets who’d already done a tour in Iraq and they looked at me like, ‘Who the hell is this guy?’” Hegseth said in a 2021 interview on “The Will Cain Show” podcast.
One former officer who served with Hegseth said he was surprised to see a National Guard member taking on such a role. He surmised that Hegseth probably wanted to run for office someday and thought a combat tour could help, the former officer said. ...
The former Army officer who served with Hegseth in Iraq said he believes he has latched on to “populist scenarios” in a quest for personal gain. When news of Hegseth’s potential nomination emerged, old acquaintances from those days got back in touch with one another, the former officer said.
One text he received especially stood out. All it said: “WTF?”
More.
