'Social Security's Long-Term Shortfall Grows About $1.2 Trillion Annually'

And by "long-term" the meaning is about 18 years.

So said Dennis Cauchon late in the spring for USA Today, here:

Social Security's long-term shortfall grows about $1.2 trillion annually — a sign of an imbalance between the number of young workers and older beneficiaries, according to the Social Security trustees' annual reports. The $21.4 trillion unfunded liability represents the difference between all taxes that will be paid and all benefits received over the lifetimes of everyone in the system now — workers and beneficiaries alike. This is the measure corporations and insurance companies use to assess financial adequacy of their retirement programs.

What this means is that this year and every year for the next two decades or so social security will be in the red annually to the tune of about $1.2 trillion, and government will have to borrow the funds to pay for that annual deficit spending.

Put another way, the social security scheme is a Ponzi scheme writ large. The pool of early fools putting up the dough for the few early, and very lucky, investors has now dried up so much that the program will run in deficit mode annually going forward, just like the rest of government has for years.

This will add significantly to the national debt, driving up interest payments on that debt and severely crimping the government's other spending options without massive injections of new revenues, aka higher taxes on the people.

In the short term, the $2.6 trillion in the social security trust fund (intragovernmental debt) would disappear in relatively short order under this analysis, say roughly in just over two years from now, except that the monies are invested in a mix of shorter and longer US Treasury securities which will reach maturity over a more or less longer period of time and thus force the program into deficit much sooner because redemptions are barred, compounding the pressure on the availability of funds for current year government spending.

You Own Treasuries. So Does The Social Security Trust Fund.

You'll find it classified under the debt government owes to itself, so to speak, otherwise called intragovernmental debt, which today totals about $4.6 trillion.

Of that, $2.6 trillion is money borrowed from the social security trust fund, money the government has borrowed to spend for other purposes and thus owes back to the social security program.

Social security takes in roughly what it expends of late, but whenever receipts do not match expenditures, it becomes necessary to cash in a treasury instead of re-investing it in more treasuries as it comes due.

So there really is no pile of cash in safe-keeping for social security. Instead there's a pile of IOU's, backed by the full faith and credit of the United States the printing presses of the US Department of the Treasury.

Governor Perry is correct when he says social security is a Ponzi scheme. 

Ben Bernanke: Clueless on the Consumer Because His Housing Data Are Not Current

From his speech today to the Economic Club of Minnesota:

One striking aspect of the recovery is the unusual weakness in household spending. After contracting very sharply during the recession, consumer spending expanded moderately through 2010, only to decelerate in the first half of 2011. The temporary factors I mentioned earlier--the rise in commodity prices, which has hurt households' purchasing power, and the disruption in manufacturing following the Japanese disaster, which reduced auto availability and hence sales--are partial explanations for this deceleration. But households are struggling with other important headwinds as well, including the persistently high level of unemployment, slow gains in wages for those who remain employed, falling house prices, and debt burdens that remain high for many, notwithstanding that households, in the aggregate, have been saving more and borrowing less. Even taking into account the many financial pressures they face, households seem exceptionally cautious. Indeed, readings on consumer confidence have fallen substantially in recent months as people have become more pessimistic about both economic conditions and their own financial prospects.

Here's the Fed's House Price Index on 8/24/11, which shows prices at late 2004 levels:

The fact is, prices have fallen to 1999 levels and may continue to fall to 1997 levels and perhaps lower than that:

Bernanke doesn't understand the severity of the home equity massacre which the consumer has sustained since 2006. That was the primary source of wealth for the vast majority of Americans, and Bernanke doesn't get that a whole decade of gains has been wiped out. His own data are off by five years.

Everyone hangs on every word of the Fed. "Don't fight the Fed" they say. Too bad the Fed doesn't know what it's talking about.

Obama's Army Kidnaps Guards, Destroys Property at Port of Longview, WA

Hoffa incited unions to violence on Monday here in Michigan, saying “President Obama, this is your army, we are ready to march. Let’s take these sons of bitches out,” and already union thugs are mixing it up before the week is out, in Washington State.

Story here:

Hundreds of Longshoremen stormed the Port of Longview early Thursday . . .

Six guards were held hostage for a couple of hours after 500 or more Longshoremen broke down gates about 4:30 a.m. and smashed windows in the guard shack . . .

Most of the protesters returned to their union hall after cutting brake lines and spilling grain from car at the EGT terminal . . .

One sergeant was threatened with baseball bats and retreated . . .


When is the Department of Homeland Security going to put unions on its list of home grown terrorist threats?

 

Updated link.

'I have abandoned free market principles to save the free market system'

"You know I feel a sense of obligation to my successor to make sure there's not a -- you know, a huge economic crisis.

"Look. I obviously have made a decision to make sure the economy doesn't collapse. I have abandoned free market principles to save the free market system. Having said that, I'm very confident that with time the economy will come out and grow and people's wealth will return."

-- George W. Bush, December 2008, here and here

'It became necessary to destroy the town to save it'

"'It became necessary to destroy the town to save it,' a United States major said today. He was talking about the decision by allied commanders to bomb and shell the town regardless of civilian casualties, to rout the Vietcong."

-- Peter Arnett, The New York Times, February 1968, cited here

'We had to save the banks in order to sue them'

Jonathan Weil gets off a good one here, concluding how ridiculous was bailing out the banks in the first place:

The government has so many conflicting agendas, we may never get satisfactory answers to those questions. All of this is part of the legacy of the unprecedented federal interventions in 2008, as well as a reminder of what a colossal mistake it was in the first place to create Fannie and Freddie with all their privatized profits and socialized losses.

The proper role of government in a free-enterprise system is to police market participants at arm’s length, not join their ranks and choose winners and losers. That’s a line we crossed a long time ago, though. The great outrage isn’t that a federal agency is suing some of these too-big-to-fail banks for damages. It’s that we ever bailed them out at all.

None dare call it fascism, though, not even Jonathan Weil.

Angela Merkel Believes in Magic, Which is a Very Bad Sign For Us All

As reported here, by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard:

Chancellor Angela Merkel said the ruling validated her rescue policies, and once again vowed to do whatever it takes to ensure the survival of monetary union.

"History has shown that countries with a common currency never wage war against one another, and that is why the euro is far more than just a currency. If the euro fails, Europe fails. It must not fail, and will not fail," she said in an emotional speech.

This faith in a mere currency construct is the same sort of faith neo-conservatives in America have in the political-economic construct known as democracy, the chief article of which faith is that democracies don't make war on democracies. Nevermind that Washington, DC, has been at war with the fifty united States since the American War Between The States. And make no mistake about it . . . that war has not been won even yet, otherwise there would be no such thing as a Tea Party.

If and when that war is won and the Tea Party disappears, the rest of the world should be afraid. Very afraid. For that is when you will discover that democracies have always gone to war to survive.

Long live The Republic.

Democracy? Not so much.

Liberals Love Progressive Taxation. Progressive Tax Deductions? Not So Much.

Peter Orszag for Bloomberg here likes the idea of flat tax deductions for some reason, but not flat taxes.

Maybe it's because such equality in deductions would increase the taxes paid by the top 25 percent of taxpayers, who already contribute the vast majority of the government's revenue. Orszag sees no reason why a person in the top marginal tax bracket should have his taxes reduced at that marginal rate by a deduction for a 401K contribution, or a mortgage interest payment, or a donation to charity. He wants the deduction to be a flat deduction for everyone, regardless of income, which sounds to me like an admission that there's something actually immoral about progressivity in the tax code.

Sounds like progress to me, the logical implication of which is that the tax rate also should be one flat rate for all.

In the meantime it remains that "tax reform" is to "progressive" as "tax increase" is to "liberal." The name has been changed to disguise the guilty.

Citigroup VP Pleads Guilty to Embezzling Millions Between '03 and '10

And he's only 35 NOW, according to this story:

A former vice president for Citigroup pleaded guilty Tuesday to embezzling more than $22 million from the company and funneling the money to his personal bank account.

Gary Foster, 35, pleaded guilty to bank fraud, admitting that he took the money between 2003 and 2010. He appeared in U.S. district court in Brooklyn before Judge Eric Vitaliano.

Obama Doesn't Give a Damn About Your Right to Privacy

Obama has allowed a privacy oversight board within his own appointment power to languish. Clearly he prefers a culture of unchecked surveillance of American citizens.

The Privacy and Civil Liberties Oversight Board, established in the wake of The Patriot Act to help protect Americans from Executive Branch abuses of their Fourth Amendment protections, has been the last thing on President Obama's mind since he got elected.

While Obama did name a privacy officer for the Department of Homeland Security, the president has so far failed to nominate a quorum for a Congressionally-mandated oversight board to track civil liberties issues government-wide.

So says Politico here today, but just as an aside in a story about the invasive procedures of the TSA as sensationalized by Drudge.

OMB Watch here a few months ago stated the issue of Obama's utter indifference much more accurately:

All five seats on the board are now vacant. President Obama nominated two members in December 2010, but even if confirmed they would not have a quorum to conduct business. The board has been inactive since 2008 due to vacancies.

We called attention to the issue of Obama's circumvention of this board over a year and a half ago here, based on reporting from Eli Lake for The Washington Times.

Obama may be a doctrinaire leftist ideologue, but more of the Leninist and Stalinist variety, in which the personal advantage for Der Fuehrer of spying on American citizens trumps the principles of the revolution.

And you dopes believed in the guy. 

Under Obama 15 Percent Unemployment or Greater for 31 Months Straight

(source)

Obama Decides It's Time To Imitate Failure and Put 'Country First'

In Cannon Falls, Minnesota, in August, as quoted here:

"You've got to send a message to Washington that it's time for the games to stop, it's time to put country first."

Gee, I wonder where he got that idea?

Let's see now, he stole "Yes We Can" from Bob the Builder.

And then there was this: "The same thing that swept Scott Brown into office swept me into office."


Hm. Interesting pattern.

Maybe that's why the lid remains slammed down tight on his academic record. 

Attorneys General of Just Four States Oppose $20 Billion Get Out Of Jail Card For Banks

And rightly so. Absolving the banks from further litigation in the robosigning and securitization scandal for such a paltry sum would be like getting away with murder.

For more, see here:

If banks are released from liability regarding documentation practices, some industry officials believe they would be able to evade state lawsuits directed at how they bundled the loans into securities.

The attorneys-general of New York, Delaware, Massachusetts and Nevada are probing such securitization matters, and have already indicated to the other states that they did not agree with the counterproposal.

Catherine Cortez Masto, Nevada’s legal officer, last week charged Bank of America’s Countrywide unit with failing to properly transfer mortgages into the trusts that issued securities to investors, and for fraudulently pursuing home seizures anyway. New York’s Eric Schneiderman has indicated his office has reached similar findings.

First We're Extremists, Then Hobbits, Terrorists and Hell Bound. And Now? Sons of Bitches.

So says Jimmy Hoffa.

Here.

Evidently only union people are workers. The rest of us . . . not so much.

And sorry, my mother was married to my dad.

It's nice that they want to take us out, though. I'd enjoy lunch anytime, just not with you.

Up Until February 2010, Sarah Palin Was A TARP Republican

Many have pointed out Gov. Sarah Palin's hypocrisy on the bailouts, especially after her book Going Rogue appeared in late 2009, which codified her support of the extraordinary measures of 2008. I documented her statements supporting the bailouts, here and here.

With a speech in February 2010, however, she made news not just because she chose to give the speech in a Tea Party venue instead of at CPAC, but because she basically flip-flopped on the issue of the bailouts just months after her book had appeared.

Someone had straightened her out in the interim.

I'm actually not surprised by this shape shifting behavior, but it disqualifies her in my mind as much as the same sort of flip-flopping disqualifies a Mitt Romney or Tim Pawlenty, or even a Rick Perry. Turning currents seem to sweep people one way and then another regardless of gender these days.

The trouble, however, is that Bush was for TARP, Paul Ryan was for TARP, Nancy Pelosi was for TARP, John Boehner was for TARP, Sen. Reid was for TARP, Sen. McConnell was for TARP, Sen. Obama was for TARP, Sen. McCain was for TARP, and so was Sarah.

They're all responsible for interfering deeply and dangerously with the free exercise of the markets at a critical time when we most needed our leaders to trust in the ability of capitalism to prove its superiority to socialism, to fascism and to communism. And they all blinked.

It was a horrible failure of nerve. Many acted out of fear. And many acted out of fear of the money they would lose.

The latest speech in Iowa yesterday is a diatribe against the bailouts, against crony capitalism, and against the entrenched interests in Washington, DC. You can read the full transcript here and make of it what you will.

It doesn't mention the banks or TARP per se, just "big finance" and Wall Street. That the public/private nexus of banking is at the heart of the mortgage debacle is nowhere in evidence, which inspires zero confidence that Sarah Palin knows anything about the correct way forward. 

As a solution to our many problems the speech expresses a naivete about human nature which would be breathtaking if it came from an actual statesman, say, a Margaret Thatcher. In point of fact, Sarah Palin is as sanguine about the prospects of cleaning house as Barack Obama is about perfecting our union. Just get a new team in there and make them accountable, that'll fix it.

As if there are human beings in our world who are not corruptible. 

If we really wanted a resurrection of the spirit of the founding era, it would begin with a deep suspicion of human nature and a construction of policies and institutions meant to check it as a matter of first importance. Republican enthusiasm to overturn Glass Steagall was an expression of the opposite. As a Christian Sarah Palin should know better.

As it is, the notion that good and evil dwell mixed up together in each of us might as well be an item of organic chemistry, Latin grammar or Greek philosophy. It is incomprehensible to the current generation who seem to retain boundless faith in the essential goodness of human nature, or at least of the human nature of their particular tribe.

Whether Republican or Democrat, however, this makes them all creatures of the left, including Sarah Palin.

To which I say, No, thanks.

The response from the right would be that human nature is essentially evil (David Mamet), and thus requires either theocracy or monarchy, or from the center that human nature is mixed and requires a mixed polity such as the founders bequeathed to us in the form of the constitution. The latter is classical liberalism, a kind of half-way house, and true moderation! Think gray-heads marching in the streets, but without the litter.

This is the Tea Party, a form of reactionary conservatism trying to recover a classical liberalism which looks ever smaller in the rear view mirror with every passing day. The brave new world lies dead ahead if they do not succeed.

And I do mean dead.

Shiller S and P 500 Price to Earnings Ratio Stands at 20.18 as of 09.02.11

Track it here:

Buttonwood provides a defense of it here.

Obama Voted For The Bush Policies He Still Blames Today

As memorialized here in Obama's vote for Bush's TARP bailout a month before he was elected president:

Sheila Marikar of ABC News Thinks 'Bona Fide' Comes From 'Bonify'

What a scream, here:

Call it a "Marikarism".

As I clicked on it, she fixed it, too!

Evidence That Treasury Bill Financial Collateral Has Dried Up in Europe

From a recent column by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard:

Lars Tranberg from Danske Bank said European banks are reduced to borrowing dollar funds for "a week at a time" rather than the usual six to 12 months. "This closely resembles what happened in late 2008 . . .."

It's a run on the primary short-term funding money of the 21st Century, and T-bill yields have gone deeply south to prove it as demand for them increases: 14 day yields are at .005.