Tuesday, August 5, 2025
Monday, August 4, 2025
The cost of groceries is a major source of stress for 53% of US adults according to AP-NORC poll, followed by the cost of housing
Sunday, August 3, 2025
Saturday, August 2, 2025
Mike Shedlock, veteran critic of the BLS since the Great Recession: This is a clear case of shoot the messenger
Did Trump Fire the BLS Head for Cause, Being the Messenger, or Something Else?
... “The process of obtaining the numbers is decentralized by design to avoid opportunities for interference.”
Trump wants you to believe hundreds if not thousands of people are in on the scheme and they are all silent.
The Cult sucks it up as if that makes sense.
I do not defend the antiquated procedures of the BLS. I have been writing about the flaws for years.
Yet, I can say that in all my conversations with BLS technicians (dozens over the years), I have found BLS [personnel] to be knowledgeable, courteous, and helpful. ...
Sorry Cultists and conspiracy theorists, the data is not rigged. And don’t pee your panties because it won’t be under Trump either (or someone will point it out).
Regardless, Trump’s tariffs ensure it will get worse. I expect many small businesses will go under. Trump has only himself to blame.
US Treasury yields retreated 3% from their July average in the aggregate on Friday in a flight to safety
The July average yield of the aggregate of eleven US Treasury issues was 4.2927. Friday's 3% retreat left the aggregate at 4.1636.
Yields on Bills pulled back to 4.2175 from 4.2925 in July, or 1.7%.
Yields on Notes pulled back to 3.866 from 4.042 in July, or 4.3%.
Yields on Bonds pulled back to 4.80 from 4.92 in July, or 2.4%.
VFSTX is now ahead 4.45% year to date.
VFICX is now ahead 6.37% year to date.
VWESX is now ahead 4.47% year to date.
VBTLX is now ahead 4.67% year to date.
VTSAX is now ahead 6.26% year to date.
Friday, August 1, 2025
Mad King Ludwig fires BLS commissioner in a fit of rage over his bad jobs numbers, blaming the messenger
Banana republic stuff from the Banana Republican.
Trump is unfit to be president.
Trump fires commissioner of labor statistics after weaker-than-expected jobs figures slam markets
William Beach, a 2017 Trump appointee and McEntarfer’s immediate predecessor at BLS, also sharply criticized her firing.
“The totally groundless firing of Dr. Erika McEntarfer, my successor as Commissioner of Labor Statistics at BLS, sets a dangerous precedent and undermines the statistical mission of the Bureau,” Beach posted on X.
“This escalates the President’s unprecedented attacks on the independence and integrity of the federal statistical system,” Beach added in a statement. “The President seeks to blame someone for unwelcome economic news.” ...
There have been just five Julys since 2008 when full-time employment exceeded 50% of population, and yep, you guessed it, July 2025 ain't one of 'em
Full time as a percentage of population was 52.32% in July 2008,
50.66% in July 2018 (ten years later!),
50.98% in July 2019,
50.69% in July 2022,
50.74% in July 2023,
50.26% in July 2024, and . . .
. . . 49.72% in July 2025.
Thursday, July 31, 2025
Here's the latest chart for grand total foreign holdings of US Treasury securities 2000-2025
I don't remember why I started doing this chart in May of whenever it was, but I stuck with it over the years.
It was probably some nutball during the Great Financial Crisis screaming that foreigners were dumping U. S. Treasury securities and we were all doomed!
The nutballs have been saying that for a loooooooooooooong time.
These are the raw, as-reported numbers at the time, and do not incorporate any subsequent revisions.
In May 2025, 43% of the over $9 trillion in outstanding value for foreign held UST was "Official", that is, by governments. And 89.8% of that 43% is invested in longer term Notes and Bonds.
Year over year in May the value of what is owned by foreigners is up a whopping 11.25%.
Many people in addition to governments around the world are banking on the full faith and credit of the United States because they can't really bank on their own governments.
And that's a fact, Jack.
Update:
And, of course, there's a government chart of this, updated quarterly.
The Fed was right yesterday, voting 9-2 to make no change to interest rates, as core pce inflation comes in at 2.79% year over year in June, a tick up from May's 2.75%
Core personal consumption expenditures year over year have been stuck in a range of 2.78% year over year for eighteen long months.
This is shaping up to become the regrettable new normal.
Core pce had averaged just 1.50% year over year for twelve years from 2009-2020 inclusive. The rate has been 85% higher than that for a year and a half now on an average basis.
The 2.78% rate is but little lower than the 2024 average of 2.81%, and the 2.75% average for the first six months of 2025 still rounds up to 2.8%.
You remember 2024. Joe Biden was president, and so far in 2025 he might as well still be.
Inflation is the worst tax. Unfortunately it's the Uniparty's policy.




















