Tuesday, November 19, 2024
Trump is officially below 50% at Real Clear Politics
Harris/Walz 48.3% (226) Trump/Vance 49.9% (312)
Ted Cruz predicted it would happen in August
Republicans float a quiet conspiracy theory that Biden won't be on the ballot
“So here’s the scenario that I think is perhaps the most likely and most dangerous,” Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, said on his podcast last month. “In August of 2024, the Democrat kingmakers jettison Joe Biden and parachute in Michelle Obama.”
“I view this as a very serious danger,” he said.
Monday, November 18, 2024
For a man who promotes himself as a Christian, SECDEF nominee Pete Hegseth sure has A LOT of VERY RECENT sooty baggage involving consensual sexual encounters dotting his timeline
“In 2023, Hegseth paid the complainant as part of a civil
confidential settlement agreement and maintains his innocence,” Timothy
Parlatore, Hegseth’s attorney, said in a statement.
He also denied that the encounter between Hegseth and an unnamed woman, which she alleges happened in 2017, was sexual assault. ...
Parlatore denied the allegation, saying, “This is a situation where a consensual encounter occurred and, unfortunately, the woman had to come up with a lie to explain why the woman had not come back to her husband’s room that night.”
His Wikipedia entry indicates he cheated on his second! wife sometime in 2016 with Fox executive producer Jennifer Rauchet who had his baby in August 2017. By October 2017 he's cheating on her! with a married woman! also supposedly conservative! referenced in the confidential settlement by CNBC:
Hegseth and his first wife, Meredith Schwarz, divorced in 2009.
He married his second wife, Samantha Deering, in 2010; they have three children.
In August 2017, while still married to Deering, Hegseth had a daughter with Fox executive producer Jennifer Rauchet, with whom he was having an extramarital relationship.[25] He and Deering divorced in August 2017.
Hegseth and Rauchet, who has three young children from her first marriage, married in August 2019.[69]
Hegseth lives in Tennessee. He is a member of Pilgrim Hill Reformed Fellowship,[70] a church in the Communion of Reformed Evangelical Churches.[71][72]
In October 2017, a 30-year-old conservative group staffer accused Hegseth of sexually assaulting her in a hotel room after he spoke at a California Federation of Republican Women event in Monterey, California.[73] She went to an emergency room the next day for a rape kit test.[74] Hegseth described the allegations as a "he-said, she-said" dispute about a consensual encounter.[75] No charges were filed in the case.[73] Hegseth paid the accuser as part of a non-disclosure agreement in 2020.[76]
Sunday, November 17, 2024
WaPo defends rule of law in Pennsylvania, says Democrat defiance of judicial election rulings is corrosive to democracy
... elected Democratic officials in Philadelphia and three other counties — Bucks, Centre and Montgomery — voted this week to defy these and other court decisions at the request of lawyers for Democratic Sen. Bob Casey ...
Mr. Casey has almost certainly lost this race. The Associated Press called it for Mr. McCormick on Nov. 7. Mr. Casey’s deficit still appears insurmountable. The three-term incumbent sees it differently and has every right to plead his case in court. State law also entitles Mr. Casey to a statewide recount because Mr. McCormick’s margin of victory is smaller than half a percentage point, though not by much. A recount is unlikely to change the outcome.
More.
Senator John Barrasso: Trump's new energy secretary fracking pioneer Chris Wright will make America an all-of-the-above energy country that puts American families first
Republican Sen. John Barrasso, who is expected to become chairman of the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee, said Trump promised bold choices for his Cabinet, and Wright's nomination delivers.
"He's s an energy innovator who laid the foundation for America's fracking boom. After four years of America last energy policy, our country is desperate for a secretary (of energy) who understands how important American energy is to our economy and our national security,″ Barrasso said of Wright, adding: "Wright will help ensure America remains committed to an all-of-the-above energy policy that puts American families first."
More.
And last but not least, the newly re-elected Republican governor of Vermont, Phil Scott, is far more popular there than either Harris or Trump in 2024
Scott's approval rating in Vermont in 2021 made him the most popular governor in the entire country. He describes himself as fiscally conservative and socially liberal.
Speaking of North Dakota, in 2016 Tulsi Gabbard used to hang around with Occupy Wall Street and Bernie Sanders types there lol
Your new Director of National Intelligence, ladies and gentlemen, whom Bernie assured us in 2019 was no Russian asset.
Donald Trump was just a working class stiff flipping hamburgers a few weeks ago, so Tulsi hanging with the left eight years ago is no big deal, right?
Not only was John Thune more popular in North Dakota than Donald Trump in 2016, newly elected governor Kelly Armstrong is more popular than Trump in 2024
But, yeah, ridiculous once upon a time NeverTrump gasbags like Charlie Kirk think they are going to remove John Thune.
Donald Trump once laughably thought the same thing about Kelly Armstrong.
Saturday, November 16, 2024
Extremely amusing: Famously defeated NeverTrump Senator Kelly Ayotte from 2016 is the new Republican governor of New Hampshire, getting more votes than both Harris and Trump
Ayotte 435,990
Harris 418,351
Trump 395,397
And politics is nothing if it's not irrational:
At this hour there are just three US House races which remain uncalled, with the current election at 219 GOP v 213 Democrat
GOP control of the US House at 218 would be secure, if it weren't for Trump poaching from this field to populate his government.
Not. Very. Bright.
It also tells you that the poached aren't very bright either: Stefanik, Waltz, Gaetz, and Rubio from the US Senate also.
Special elections are required for the House district vacancies. The governor of Florida can appoint Rubio's replacement, but that is only temporary.
Democrats said electing Trump would be a return to chaos.
They were correct about that.
Mark Levin thinks Senate Republicans should be just like Democrats and confirm all Trump's lunatic nominees same as the Democrats confirmed Biden's instead of running their mouths all the time but doing nothing
Here.
Levin argues the Senators owe their elections to Trump's coattails, and therefore their unqualified support.
Of fifteen Republicans elected to the US Senate in 2024, that might be true of eleven.
But in four cases it's not: Wicker in Mississippi, Curtis in Utah, Barrasso in Wyoming, and Ricketts in Nebraska were all more popular than Donald Trump, each garnering more votes than Trump did in their states.
Levin often talks about "constitutionalism" on his show, you know, like the separation of powers, where the Congress isn't simply the president's rubber stamp machine.
You might say Levin runs his mouth about it.
Some US Senators actually doing their jobs and voting not to confirm the worst of Trump's appointments is a good thing.
RFK Jr would make a great member of the US House Democrat Caucus, but not Secretary of Health and Human Services
With any luck the US Senate will not confirm RFK Jr.
Friday, November 15, 2024
The stock market cheerleaders/Fed rate cut cheerleaders at CNBC, but I repeat myself, lied by omission about wholesale price increases yesterday, but CNN told the truth
CNBC: Wholesale prices rose 0.2% in October, in line with expectations
Wholesale prices nudged higher in October, though largely in line with expectations and mostly consistent with the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates again in December, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Thursday.
The producer price index, which measures what producers get for their products, increased a seasonally adjusted 0.2% for the month, up one-tenth of a percentage point from September though matching the Dow Jones consensus forecast. On a 12-month basis, headline wholesale inflation was at 2.4%.
Excluding food and energy, core PPI rose 0.3%, also one-tenth more than September and also matching expectations. The 12-month rate was at 3.1%.
"Largely in line" and "mostly consistent" lol. Both 12-month measures were higher than the consensus expected, which was 2.3% for headline and 3% for core. The year over year measures are the most important anyway, especially core.
Why lie about it?
CNN: Wholesale inflation heated up again last month, reversing recent progress
US wholesale inflation picked up more than expected in October, indicating that some price pressures persist at the producer level.
The Producer Price Index, a measurement of average price changes seen by producers and manufacturers, rose 0.2% on a monthly basis and 2.4% for the 12 months ended in October, marking an acceleration from September, when prices ticked up 0.1% for the month and grew 1.9% annually, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data released Thursday. ...
FactSet consensus forecasts called for a 0.2% monthly gain and for the annual rate to heat up to 2.3%.
Excluding food and energy prices, which tend to be volatile, core PPI rose 0.3% on a monthly basis, marking an acceleration from 0.2% in September. Annually, core PPI heated up from 2.9% to 3.1%, the largest increase since June. Economists projected a 0.2% monthly gain and a 3% annual rate.
Obviously not all prediction models were the same. FactSet projected a 0.2% monthly gain for core vs. 0.3% for core shown above by FXStreet.
But again, the year over year is up MORE THAN EXPECTED for BOTH measures in most models. CNN mentions it, CNBC does not.
You can clearly observe that overall, headline wholesale prices year over year have been trending higher since June 2023. That bottom came out in July 2023, when the Fed last hiked the interest rate in the current cycle and then paused for good.
That was a big mistake.
The rise in wholesale prices since then is as good an indicator as any that higher inflation is deeply embedded in the economy and that the Fed stopped hiking too soon. Arguably core prices sent the same signal, but not starting until after December 2023.
Paying attention to core could explain the Fed's mistake, but for the fact that if the Fed were truly listening to this information, it wouldn't have then cut by 50 basis points in September 2024. I mean, c'mon man.
Jay Powell represents the interests of the bankers and Wall Street, for whom inflation is a good thing because it is the screen behind which the pipeline from prices to profits gets juiced.
He does not represent the people.
Who appointed that guy anyway?!
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