Sometimes it's not the economy stupid: Headline employment under Obama didn't recover until May 2014, but he got re-elected in 2012 anyway

 Six years and four months went by: Jan 2008-May 2014.

And economic confidence actually declined from -11 in 2012 to -10 in 2014 when it did!

It's one of the craziest things in US political history, comparable to FDR getting re-elected throughout the Great Depression, which his economic experimentation only made worse.

By October 2012, 72% said the effects of the Great Recession were still the most important problem, compared to 43% today in October 2024, but it didn't matter that Obama wasn't solving it. He beat Romney anyway.

Is this one of those sometimes?

The same phenomenon may be happening today, but in reverse.

Harris stands to lose despite economic indicators which are chugging along in her favor, or at least not falling apart, to which those 43% seem oblivious.

Civilian employment in July and September 2024 remains near the November 2023 peak. Core inflation is still too high at 2.7%, but it isn't in the 5s anymore like it was for four straight quarters. Congress has thrown the book at the economy since 2Q2020, with nominal GDP growing at an astounding 9.84% compound annual rate because of pandemic spending. That's been a double-edged sword, however, exploding the national debt, inflation, and interest rates.

But economic confidence is Obama-like negative, and has been since it crashed during the pandemic in April 2020 to -32 from its highest level in 20 years under Trump just two months before, in February 2020 at +41.

Trump didn't shut down the economy in 2020, but governors sure did. It was a stark demonstration of just how quickly the wrong leadership can make everything go to hell in a hand basket overnight. The people today aren't wrong to lack confidence.

Ominously for incumbent VP Harris, Gallup thinks 2024 is most analogous to 1992, when Americans booted the incumbent Bush 41 even though the recession had ended more than a year before in 1991.

Majority of Americans Feel Worse Off Than Four Years Ago

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- More than half of Americans (52%) say they and their family are worse off today than they were four years ago, while 39% say they are better off and 8% volunteer that they are about the same. The 2024 response is most similar to 1992 among presidential election years in which Gallup has asked the question. ...

With a majority of Americans feeling they are not better off than four years ago, economic confidence remaining low, and less than half of Americans saying now is a good time to find a quality job, the economy will be an important consideration at the ballot box this year. As inflation persists and economic concerns dominate voters' minds, the upcoming election may hinge on which candidate can best address these pressing issues.

 

Democrat Senators (candidate) Baldwin, Casey, (Slotkin), Tester and Brown, who all voted to impeach Trump twice, now suck up to him in ads before election

 

Some of the most vulnerable Democratic senators in this election are using the closing stretch to boast about their ties to former President Trump.

Why it matters: Even candidates in presidential battlegrounds are now featuring Trump cameos in campaign ads — as Democrats up and down the ballot run to the middle.

• The trend comes as split-ticket voting declines, making it more likely that a Senate candidate's fate will be tied to their state's presidential results. ...
  

What they're saying: "These Senate Democrats all voted to impeach President Trump twice, so it is surprising that they are now running ads praising his work as President," NRSC communications director Mike Berg told Axios in a statement.

More.

Democrats brought their Blue Wall of Conformity Tour to Michigan this week, populated by the nation's most liberal governors all wearing the same cute little uniform

Democrat governors Evers [WI], Whitmer [MI], and Shapiro [PA] stumped for Harris here in Grand Rapids, Michigan, on Friday, wearing cute little jackets of conformity emblazoned Harris-Walz Blue Wall Bus Tour.

"A swiftly organized bus tour", says AP, organized long enough ago to get their uniforms in order but apparently not the sound system.

"At an indoor farmer’s market in Flint, signs of an event that came together quickly were hard to miss. Music blared from an iPhone after the venue’s sound system failed. One attendee, Debbie McIntosh, said she received a 'last-minute invitation yesterday.' ... [Harris] faces challenges in each [state], including concerns about Black voter turnout in the largest cities — Detroit, Milwaukee and Philadelphia — and growing frustration over the Israel-Hamas war, which has angered both Arab American and Jewish voters."

The Democrat governors of Maryland (Moore) and Massachusetts (Healey) were also part of the tour, standing at the left in the photo, as was DNC Chair Jaime Harrison (not pictured), and . . . New York Governor Kathy Hochul lol, standing to the far right in the photo, next to Shapiro. Almost no story mentions Hochul, the governor of one of the very most liberal states in the country.

These are the people who can't abide an America for Americans, voter ID, freedom of speech, states choosing the president, the right to keep and bear arms, or the right of an unborn baby to breathe. It's almost beside the point that they can't abide Trump.

If you want your state to be just another brick in the wall where no one can hear you, Harris is your gal.

"Joy" is the new "Not a serious country"

 

Meanwhile Salena Zito tells us how it's going, and Zack Beauchamp is probably going to have himself committed

 

Pennsylvania Democrat Casey Embraces...Trump

 

Salena Zito, Washington Examiner

The fact that [18-year incumbent Democrat Senator Bob] Casey is running an ad highlighting how much he agrees with former President Donald Trump tells you everything you need to know about how Pennsylvania is going. ...

The latest Real Clear Politics averages have Trump with a slim lead over Harris, which is likely dicey not just for Harris but also for Casey.

"Weird" didn't work, try "bizarre" lol

 

The Bizarre Home Stretch of Trump's 2024 Campaign

 

Zack Beauchamp, Vox

In which we learn that Zack Beauchamp is just jealous, wishing he could be as perceptive as Salena Zito, dammit:

In late 2016, the Atlantic published a campaign trail dispatch by Salena Zito, a conservative reporter, exploring Trump’s appeal to his voters. The piece was forgettable save one line, a description of Trump’s relationship to his fans that has been quoted endlessly for the past eight years: "The press takes him literally, but not seriously; his supporters take him seriously, but not literally."...

If we took all of [Trump] literally, really integrated the reality of what these steps would mean into our daily behavior, it would be hard to live life normally. The specter of out-and-out authoritarianism, a crashing economy, and an international system shorn of the alliances that keep the global peace sounds apocalyptic. Actually trying to envision the enormity of this world is psychologically taxing; trying to live as if this were indeed an imminent possibility invariably leads to a life monomaniacally devoted to trying to stop it.

Poor fella knows he suffers from Trump Derangement Syndrome.

It's a cry for help.

 

We still live in a world of very diminished economic growth since The Great Recession

Real GDP 2007-2023, 16 years, compound annual growth rate: 1.905%.

All the other years, 1929-2007: 3.448%.

We're behind that by almost 45%.

Compare the 16 years of The Great Depression and WWII, 1929-1945: 4.743%.

Or the 16 years prior to The Great Recession, 1991-2007: 3.253%.

This is bad, but you knew that.

Gold new all time high: $2,714.00 per ounce (updated to $2,720.05)

 Gold raced past the $2,700 mark for the first time on Friday . . .. Spot gold rose 0.7% to $2,711.75 per ounce, having hit an all-time high of $2,714.00 earlier in the session. Bullion has gained over 2% so far this week. U.S. gold futures gained 0.7% to $2,726.90.

More. 

Updated:

Spot gold was up 1% at $2,720.05 per ounce by 02:58 p.m. ET (1858 GMT) and has risen 2.4% so far this week. 

U.S. gold futures settled 0.8% higher to $2,730.

Real Clear Politics' No-Toss-Ups Map shifts Wisconsin to GOP, Trump winning Electoral College 312-226

 

Millionaire Tim Walz makes his 90-year old mother feed herself from her Social Security check

 Speech.

 

 

Israel stumbles onto elusive Hamas leader Sinwar in Rafah and kills him

Kamala Harris famously warned Israel of consequences from the US in March if Israel went into Rafah.

 

The liberal hive mind word of the day is "testy"

 

Hey look, the British Labour Party is trying to interfere in the US presidential election in favor of Kamala Harris

 

Biden buys the votes of another 60,000 people, topping 1 million so far, average loan forgiven in this round is $70,000 vs. $42,500 from FEMA for home repair assistance after the hurricanes

 It's great to be a College Democrat.

CNN reports that if your home was destroyed in the hurricane your  "current maximum amount for home repair assistance, for example, is $42,500." 

What was that about equity, Kamala Harris?

President Joe Biden, who has forgiven more education debt than any other president in U.S history, said that the number of borrowers to benefit from the program under his administration now exceeded 1 million. ...

The average student loan balance forgiven under PSLF is around $70,000, according to a rough estimate by higher education expert Mark Kantowitz.

Story.

Gold rises to $2695.39 per ounce, another new high

 Gold hits record highs on US election uncertainty, more policy easing

Gold prices hit record highs on Thursday as uncertainty surrounding the U.S. presidential elections and the war in the Middle East prompted investors to seek out the safe-haven asset, while easing monetary policy environment kept prices elevated.

Spot gold last rose 0.83% to $2,695.39 per ounce. U.S. gold futures gained 0.75% to $2,711.40.

Gold has seen a surge of over 30% this year, surpassing record levels, driven by prospects of further Federal Reserve rate cuts after a half percentage point rate cut last month and ongoing geopolitical uncertainties.

Hoo boy, in a democracy a party's candidate ought to win in the primaries before she becomes the candidate

 

Kamala Harris accidentally on purpose started the vaccine skepticism ball rolling in October 2020

 Here.

The vast majority in America is shunning vaccination against COVID-19 more than a month after availability according to the CDC

 

Reported on Friday, October 11th, 2024:

• The percent of adults age 18+ reporting receipt of the updated 2024─25 COVID-19 vaccine is 11.2% (9.7-12.7), including 26.7% (21.7-31.7) among adults age 65+.
  

FBI quietly revises 2022 violent crime data without explanation after gaslighting the country for a year: 2.1% decline becomes 4.5% increase, DOJ report shows 55.4% increase in violent crime under Biden-Harris

 The new data includes thousands more murders, rapes, robberies, and aggravated assaults. The Bureau – which has been at the center of partisan storms – made no mention of these revisions in its September 2024 press release. ... 

It’s been over three weeks since the FBI released the revised data. The Bureau’s lack of acknowledgment or explanation about the significant change concerns researchers. ...

The updated data for 2022 report that there were 80,029 more violent crimes than in 2021. There were an additional 1,699 murders, 7,780 rapes, 33,459 robberies, and 37,091 aggravated assaults. The question naturally arises: should the FBI’s 2023 numbers be believed? ...

While the FBI claims that serious violent crime has fallen by 5.8% since Biden took office, the NCVS numbers [from the U.S. Department of Justice] show that total violent crime has risen by 55.4%. Rapes are up by 42%, robbery by 63%, and aggravated assault by 55% during Biden’s term. Since the NCVS started, the largest previous increase over three years was 27% in 2006, so the increase under Biden was slightly more than twice as large. ... 

At the beginning of this year, the media was running headlines like National Public Radio’s: “Violent crime is dropping fast in the U.S. – even if Americans don’t believe it.” “At some point in 2022 … there was just a tipping point where violence started to fall and it just continued to fall,” NPR claimed. But now the FBI has itself admitted its violent crime numbers were way off. ...

A Gallup survey late last year found that 92% of Republicans and 58% of Democrats thought crime was increasing. A February Rasmussen Reports survey found that, by a 4.7-to-1 margin, likely voters say violent crime in the U.S. is getting worse (61%), not better (13%). A Gallup poll found in March that “crime and violence” was Americans’ second biggest concern, after inflation. But the media and politicians used the inaccurate FBI data to try to convince people that they were wrong.

Read the full story here.

Puto in the news, but Associated Press won't spell it out lol

 Mexico is struggling to stamp out a homophobic soccer chant ahead of the World Cup

 GUADALAJARA, México (AP) — Guadalajara is the capital of a Mexican state that is home to tequila and Mariachi music. It is also considered the birthplace of a less flattering tradition – a homophobic soccer chant that has cost Mexico hundreds of thousands of dollars in fines over the past two decades.

It’s no wild guess that the chant, a one-word slur which literally means male prostitute in Spanish, will be heard from the crowd in Guadalajara’s Akron stadium when Mexico hosts the United States in a friendly on Tuesday. Multiple sanctions from FIFA and campaigns by Mexican soccer officials to educate fans have not been able to stamp it out. ...