Sunday, November 13, 2016
What do 3 Republicans, a Democrat and a lesbian have in common in Wisconsin?
Low information voters.
Liberal death wish: 8.2 million Obama voters repulsed by Hillary stay home and Democrats lose everything
Republicans could have run Incitatus and won.
My wife just told me a friend of ours never heard of Wikileaks and voted for Hillary
Well, he does work in Chicago.
I think I'm going to need therapy for many years to cope with this devastating development.
Democrats blame their own Bernie Sanders left for not showing up at the polls to elect Hillary, ignore that she was a horrible candidate
It's like Rush Limbaugh blaming 4 million phantom conservatives for not showing up to elect Romney, who bested McCain by a million votes, when the Democrats can point to 4.6 to 8.2 million actual Obama voters who abandoned Hillary.
When it comes to the establishment in the two political parties not getting it, the Democrats do it better as usual.
From "Seething liberals vow revolution in Democratic Party" at The Hill:
In an election determined by enthusiasm, some blame Bernie Sanders supporters for either not showing up or for suppressing turnout by refusing to rally behind Clinton at an earlier date.
“The Sanders people should be mad at themselves,” said one well-connected Democratic strategist. “If they had come out to vote, Donald Trump wouldn’t be president. If they were trying to prove a point, all they’ve done is further damage everything they claim to be fighting for. It’s somewhat typical of that crowd.” ...
“Progressives showed up,” [Jacob] Limon said, noting that the election in Texas was closer than it has been in 20 years. The problem, he said, was Clinton’s trustworthiness.
Saturday, November 12, 2016
Communist supporters of the Trotskyist Socialist Alternative Party are NOT MY COUNTRYMEN
Of course they hate Trump. They hate America and everyone who loves it.
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| Seattle, WA, 11-9-16 |
Back-out California (LaLaLand) from the election totals and Trump wins by 2 million votes
Clinton: 61.15 million total minus 5.86 million in CA = 55.29 million votes
Trump: 60.48 million total minus 3.15 million in CA = 57.33 million votes
Trump wins by 2.04 million votes everywhere else (America)
Hillary's horrible candidacy aside, Republicans should be worrying about stagnating popular vote totals
Bush 2004: 62 million
McCain 2008: 60 million
Romney 2012: 60. 9 million
Trump 2016: 60.5 million
Republican average: 60.85
Democrat average: 63.88 (John Kerry and Hillary Clinton 60.1; Barack Obama 2x 67.7)
Republicans are just one more articulate, bright, clean, nice-looking minority person away from another slaughter.
Ya think? WaPo: "It's possible that Clinton supporters did not show up on Election Day"
The latest tally shows Hillary not getting 8.361 million votes in 2016 which Obama got in 2008. No matter what Trump's coalition was in 2016, its size shows little variation from 2008 and 2012. There was no sea change of support for his candidacy.
The answer for Clinton's loss is in the disarray among Democrats because their candidate was so horrible, which is why the media have portrayed Trump that way. It's liberal projection syndrome all over again. Hillary Clinton was the worst candidate for president in at least a generation. "More sooty baggage than a 90-car freight train" was how Camille Paglia put it 3 years ago. Democrats should have listened to her.
The answer for Clinton's loss is in the disarray among Democrats because their candidate was so horrible, which is why the media have portrayed Trump that way. It's liberal projection syndrome all over again. Hillary Clinton was the worst candidate for president in at least a generation. "More sooty baggage than a 90-car freight train" was how Camille Paglia put it 3 years ago. Democrats should have listened to her.
WaPo, recognizing that the proper comparison is with 2008, not 2012:
Absent final turnout numbers, it is still too early to assess whether these shifting vote patterns are the result of differential turnout among Clinton and Trump supporters or the result of genuine voter conversion. It’s possible that a sizable chunk of Latino Clinton supporters, in addition to white women, African Americans, and Asian Americans, did not show up on Election Day. It’s also possible that a significant portion of these voters were willing to overlook Trump’s incendiary remarks and vote for him based on other factors, like the need to shake up “politics as usual.”
Friday, November 11, 2016
As usual, the stupid party doesn't even know why it won
8.748 million Democrat voters who voted for Obama in 2008 didn't vote for Hillary in 2016.
It was a battle of the midget titans, a swordfight between fleas.
That's all.
News reports headline over and over a mere 100 protesters in downtown Grand Rapids last night whining that Trump is not their president
And on election night 148,160 said he was, 48.3% of all Kent County, Michigan voters.
Hey Ann Coulter: Republicans lost only 2 of 25 US Senate races because 4.1 million Democrats didn't turnout in 2016, 4.8 million voted for somebody else
Turnout 2008: 131.5 million
Turnout 2016: 127.4 million
Obama 2008: 69.5 million
Hillary 2016: 60.6 million
Trump victory in WI in 2016 is explainable by decline in turnout relative to 2012
Trump beat Hillary in Wisconsin in 2016 by just 24,081 votes.
With turnout from 2012 down by 91,000, one could explain Trump's victory by saying Wisconsin Democrats stayed home in enough numbers in 2016 to help elect Trump. And since of the last three presidential elections turnout in Wisconsin was highest in 2012 at 3.068 million when the state helped return the incumbent Democrat to office, the argument possesses considerable plausibility.
Compared with 2008, however, this explanation fails since 2016 turnout undershot 2008 by just 6,000, not enough to account for Trump's victory over Hillary.
Both Iowa and Wisconsin were slow to the trend of turnout peaking in 2008 when the popular Democrat Obama won in an election with still unequaled turnout of 131.5 million nationwide.
Trump victory in IA was genuine and not attributable to turnout changes
Trump beat Hillary by 146,182 votes in Iowa in 2016.
The 2016 turnout was only 25,000 lower than in 2012, but 20,000 higher than in 2008.
In the last three presidential elections the turnout high in Iowa was in 2012 at 1.582 million.
#NeverTrump Sen. Kelly "Free Condoms" Ayotte defeated in NH by 743 votes
Poster girl for the muddled message.
On the third day after Election 2016 the totals remain incomplete in five states
IL 1% out
WA 24% out
NJ 1% out
UT 18% out
OR 1% out
WA 24% out
NJ 1% out
UT 18% out
OR 1% out
Thursday, November 10, 2016
Revulsion Election update: Trump got lucky, underperformed Romney by 1.4 million votes, McCain by 450,000 votes
Hillary underperformed Obama 2012 by 6.2 million, Obama 2008 by . . . 9.8 million.
Democrats elected Trump by not voting for Hillary.
Rush Limbaugh is repeating stupid from National Review, that Trump could have beaten Obama in 2012
This will become the new factoid to replace the "94 million not working but eating" myth and the "4 million stayed home in 2012" myth and the 99ers myth.
Heavy sigh.
Revulsion for Hillary: Some Trump victories wholly dependent on turnout undershooting 2008 levels in four high population states
TX: turnout up 0.8 million, Trump beat Hillary by 0.814 million
FL: turnout up 1.0 million, Trump beat Hillary by 0.12 million
PA: turnout down by 100 thousand, Trump beat Hillary by 68 thousand
OH: turnout down by 400 thousand, Trump beat Hillary by 454 thousand
GA: turnout up 0.1 million, Trump beat Hillary by 0.231 million
NC: turnout up 0.4 million, Trump beat Hillary by 0.177 million
MI: turnout down by 200 thousand, Trump beat Hillary by 12 thousand
AZ: turnout down by 300 thousand, Trump beat Hillary by 84 thousand
The revulsion for Hillary election: In the top 14 states by population, 2016 turnout undershot 2008 by 5.4 million net
CA: down 4.7 million
TX: up 0.8 million
FL: up 1.0
NY: down 0.5
IL: down 0.1
PA: down 0.1
OH: down 0.4
GA: up 0.1
NC: up 0.4
MI: down 0.2
NJ: down 0.7
VA: up 0.2
WA: down 0.9
AZ: down 0.3
Back out CA and the net down is 0.7 million from 2008.
Trump states had turnout net up 1.3 million from 2008. In the traditionally Democrat states Trump won, it appears to be partly due to Democrats not turning out for Hillary. Only in VA did Trump lose where turn out was up from 2008.
Clinton states apart from CA had turnout net down 2 million from 2008.
Wednesday, November 9, 2016
National Review contributor tries to make the case that Trump 2016 would have beaten Obama 2012
The author repeatedly mentions that he knows he's comparing apples to oranges but never adjusts his figures for population growth over the period.
As of this morning, Trump is underperforming Romney by 1.9 million votes, but the country has grown by 9 million since 2012.
The Trump performance figure in 2016 presupposes having so much more to work with from the increased population growth but still comes up short of Romney who had so much less to work with because of a smaller population.
Trump toyed with the idea of competing in 2012 but wisely left Romney to do that and fail, knowing instinctively that the shiny, happy and clean novelty incumbent was going to be very hard to beat.
Obama was beatable in 2012, had fewer than 500,000 votes in four states east of the Mississippi gone a different way, but Romney possessed insufficient charisma compared to Obama, too few boots on the ground to make up for that, and the formidable problem of Obama's incumbency.
And on top of all that, Romney was a lousy candidate. His wife had to reassure us that "Mitt doesn't change positions".
As with all fortunes from Chinese cookies, always add "in bed" for maximum amusement.
Polling in Wisconsin was the poster boy for polling failure in 2016
From the story here:
There were no surveys released this year from Wisconsin that showed Trump with a lead.
Clinton held a 6.5 point lead in the Badger State heading into Election Day, and the state was not even discussed as on par with Michigan or Pennsylvania as a potential blue state pick-up for Trump.
Trump’s victory in Wisconsin — a state that has not gone for the GOP nominee since 1984 — helped him seal the deal.
In Michigan and Pennsylvania, deep blue states the GOP candidate has not won in decades, polls showed the race tightening in the home stretch, but only one poll, from Trafalgar Group, showed Trump with the lead.
The revulsion election, Obama vs. Hillary, shows 10.25 million missing Democrat voters, and Trump underperforming both Romney and McCain
Obama garnered 69.499 million votes in 2008, so far in 2016 Hillary has just 59.245 million.
Trump is underperforming Romney by 1.912 million votes, 59.022 million to 60.934 million, and also McCain, who collected 59.950 million votes in 2008, by just shy of 1 million votes.
Expect changes to these spreads as the 2016 numbers finalize.
The revulsion election update: turnout down 3.6% from 2012
So far 124.6 million have voted in 2016, down 4.6 million from 2012 when 129.2 million voted.
Expect revisions in this space in coming days.
That useless rag USA Today says turnout was up 4.7%, missing the revulsion election
"Voter turnout up 4.7% around the country", says that useless rag USA Away.
The data in the upper Midwest says otherwise.
In Michigan, turnout was 4.7 million, a little lower than in 2012 when 4.8 million showed up. In 2008 5 million did.
In Wisconsin, turnout was 2.9 million vs. 3.1 million in 2012 and 3 million in 2008.
In Pennsylvania 6 million turned out yesterday, the same as in 2008, up slightly from 2012's 5.8 million.
In Ohio there's been a steady decline since 2008 when 5.7 million turned out. In 2012 it fell to 5.6 million and just 5.3 million in Election 2016.
When the final numbers come in, I'll bet we'll see this phenomenon of suppressed turnout in other places as well. And generally speaking, suppressed turnout favors Republicans because Republicans are often more energized, more scrupulous and more dutiful, as was the case yesterday.
What we had here was a revulsion election. People stayed home because they couldn't vote for either candidate. And because the voters found Hillary more intolerable than The Donald, Mr. Trump is our new president. The smoke generated by the ugliness of the battle on the field obscured the fact of troops staying behind in camp.
In the end America chose the rake over the robber, which was the right choice.
But don't confuse it with a sea change.
Polling on the morning of Election 2016 in the toss-ups vs. the outcome
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| CLICK IMAGE TO ENLARGE |
Florida: Trump wins by 1.4, vs. 0.2 predicted
Maine CD2: Trump wins by 9.8 with 90% counted vs. 0.5 predicted
New Hampshire: Clinton wins by 0.6 vs. 0.3 with 97% counted (!)
Nevada: Clinton wins by 2.4 vs. Trump predicted by 0.8
North Carolina: Trump wins by 3.8 vs. 1.0 predicted
Pennsylvania: Trump wins by 1.1 vs. Clinton predicted by 1.9
Colorado: Clinton wins by 2.2 with 88% counted vs. 2.9 predicted
Iowa: Trump wins by 9.4 with 99% counted vs. 3.0 predicted
Michigan: Trump winning by 0.3 vs. Clinton predicted by 3.4
Ohio: Trump wins by 8.6 vs. 3.5 predicted
Arizona: Trump wins by 4.0 with 98% counted vs. 4.0 predicted (!)
Maine: Clinton wins by 3.0 with 91% counted vs. 4.5 predicted
Georgia: Trump wins by 5.7 vs. 4.8 predicted
Virginia: Clinton wins by 4.7 with 99% counted vs. 5.0 predicted
New Mexico: Clinton wins by 8.3 vs. 5.0 predicted
Wisconsin: Trump wins by 1.0 vs. Clinton predicted by 6.5 (arguably the biggest upset of the evening)
The numbskulls on Fox are still debating whether Trump can claim victory on stage
Trump shocked by taking Wisconsin in addition to Florida and Ohio, then Pennsylvania put him over the top, and Michigan and Arizona will put the nails in Clinton's coffin.
Over an hour ago the New York Times projected Trump to win with 305.
All this talk at Fox is just jibber jabber.
Thanks to Mitch McConnell the Scalia seat will be filled by Donald Trump
Jonathan Turley is saying right now that Trump is going to make almost unprecedented changes to the make-up of the Supreme Court.
Asian stocks plunge on Trump victory
The Nikkei 225 is down over 5% at this hour. The Hang Seng is down over 3%. Smaller losses elsewhere in Asia.
Trump is coming for you, Asia.
Hillary won't appear tonight to concede, Podesta says she's not done yet
Hillary was done a half hour ago.
Tuesday, November 8, 2016
Bob Dole votes for Trump, George Bush doesn't vote at all
That, my friends, is the difference between the greatest generation, and the generation to which it gave birth.
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