Polls troll, and Brexit showed the bookies weren't any better

Seen here:

Analysing outcome likelihoods in the real world is a risky business. But if all else fails, you can always rely on the one interest group that has a consistent stake in accurate outcome prediction – betting companies. OddsChecker currently has best odds for a leave vote at 11/4 (27% likely) and stay at 1/3 (75% likely). Make of that what you will.

Mark Belling's right: Hillary's a lying liar and will only continue to lie to you as president

And Donald Trump isn't going to stop being who he is, either.

Better bookmark his Twitter feed.

Hillary suspends campaign Thursday through Saturday to rest, news media shift you to Olympic swimmers' "lies"

Nothing on Hillary's schedule 18th-20th

The only possible headline in the political universe: "Hillary Bush suspends campaign to rest from rigors of the trail".

Notice how Hillary's calendar doesn't treat Sunday as the first day of the week, as in all Christendom?

How the mighty are fallen: The Financial Times calls National Review "establishment GOP"

Here:

"Publications such as the National Review have long been part of the establishment GOP while drawing on outsider status as the Democrats held control of the White House."

That whir you're hearing is William F. Buckley, Jr., who died in 2008, spinning in his grave.

State Dept. spokesman finally admits US paid ransom for hostages in Iran, making Obama a liar yet again

Quoted here:

The State Department admitted Thursday that the US would not hand over $400 million in cash to Iran until it released four American hostages — two weeks after President Obama insisted the payment was not a “ransom.”

State Department spokesman John Kirby was asked at Thursday’s press briefing: “In basic English, you’re saying you wouldn’t give them $400 million in cash until the prisoners were released, correct?”

“That’s correct,” Kirby replied.

Flashback: One week before the November 2012 election Rasmussen had Romney ahead by 2+ in FL, OH, VA and NH but Romney lost them all

And with those losses Romney did not get to 270 and finished instead with 206.

Romney lost by 166,000 votes in OH, 149,000 in VA, 74,000 in FL and 40,000 in NH . . . 429,000 votes.

Flashback here.

The Rasmussen presidential poll isn't really a poll of likely voters, either

From the Rasmussen methodology page, here:

For political surveys, census bureau data provides a starting point and a series of screening questions are [sic] used to determine likely voters. The questions involve voting history, interest in the current campaign, and likely voting intentions. 

Well, that's not polling likely voters. That's polling people who SAY they are going to vote. Likely voters are voters you KNOW voted recently, say in 2014 or 2012.

Polling such people is very expensive, which is why they don't do it.

The polls are not reliable because you can count on only about 30% of the population to tell the truth unfailingly.

The rest of you are liars, and you have the government you deserve. You lie, and you elect liars.  

 

"Science": "Hottest July on record", but not in Seattle, Boulder, Madison, Chicago or Grand Rapids

Seattle's hottest Julys

Boulder's hottest Julys

Madison's hottest Julys

Grand Rapids' hottest Julys

Chicago's hottest Julys

July 2016 hottest on record, they say, but not in Grand Rapids, MI: Average temperature ranked 21st since 1892

Warmest average July temperatures in Grand Rapids ranked

"July 2016 Was The Hottest Month Ever Recorded"

But 70% of the top ten hottest Julys in Grand Rapids, Michigan occurred before World War II.

Michael Warren of The Weekly Standard is convinced the polls are right because they are "scientific"

The guy probably believes the Arctic is ice-free, too.

Here:

Cohen's obstinate challenge to the plain fact that scientific polls show Trump is losing indicates this head-in-the-sand mentality has permeated the culture in Trump World. Remember, it's not spin if you believe it.

Mort Zuckerman pays his respects to John McLaughlin

Here.

Mort puts his time on The McLaughlin Group at about 24 of the 34 years, but has been notably absent in the last year and otherwise has been more quiet than usual.

The last time I remember him writing much of anything was early in 2013 when he reiterated that America was in actuality experiencing another economic depression.

Toronto Canada is the new crucible for molten salt reactors

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard reports here:

Canada is now the crucible for molten salt reactors. Terrestrial Energy in Toronto is the most advanced such project in the world with an integral molten salt reactor, and is already pre-licensed. "We can bring our reactor to the commercial market in the 2020s," said the chief executive Simon Irish.

"Once we put a shovel to the ground we can build it in three to four years. The parts can be manufactured on a mass scale.  We believe we can produce power for 40-50 US dollars per megawatt hour," he said.

Vlogger Louis Cole aspires to become the new Walter Duranty, not for The New York Times but for YouTube

Here:

In the description section of one of his North Korea videos, Cole writes, “I’m trying to focus on positive things in the country and combat the purely negative image we see in the Media.” Which, O.K., sure. But as another vlogger shows us in his own video from the DPRK (vloggers seem to be going there en masse), these videos are meant to capture a very carefully curated vision of a country whose human rights abuses are “without parallel in the contemporary world,” according to Human Rights Watch. Cole has, so far, not really made mention of any of that, choosing instead to go for a light tone, oohing and ahhing over abundant food in a country ravaged by hunger.

Real Clear Politics classifies the LA Times/USC poll as a "likely voter" poll, but it isn't

And it is evident to me that none of the other "LV" polls are either. The pollsters ASK if they are likely voters or registered voters, which is different from talking to someone who actually voted in 2014 and 2012. None of these polls appear to be representing the views of exclusively likely voters.

What's even more disturbing, only the Bloomberg and ABC News polls are conducted by telephone, either landline or cell. The other four are conducted online in some way.

The more you look into it, the less confident you become, which would explain why the candidates continue to campaign for your attention and fight like hell. They don't trust the polls either.

From the FAQ, here:

Q: Do you use a likely voter model? 

A: No, the respondents provide us with their own subjective probability of voting and we use that to weight their responses.

Five likely voter polls give Hillary an average advantage of only +3.6 in August, eight registered voter polls +8.9

Like Eleanor Clift, Fred Barnes expresses gratitude for being included in The McLaughlin Group

Here:

I'm grateful to McLaughlin for having been part of it.

Eleanor Clift says goodbye to John McLaughlin, the way it should be done

You should read it, here:

Every issue was deeply researched, and John relished weightier issues like NATO enlargement, making us eat our vegetables before we would get to the easy headlines. ... We will miss his signature phrases, beginning with Issue One, and ending with Bye-Bye. And we will miss the man, who was always a blast to be around. John was an original, and while there are many imitators, he will never be overtaken. He got there first, and he created something that in its own way is as iconic as The Honeymooners with Jackie Gleason, a comparison I know John would love.

Why Real Clear Politics shouldn't include the NBC/SM poll in its presidential average

The poll shows Clinton +9 currently.

The poll is conducted online, but if you're a smart person, you've installed an ad-blocker, which means you won't be polled. Hence the poll skews stupid right out of the gate.

The poll is of registered voters, including lots of motor-voters, not of likely voters, and the most likely to vote are 60 years of age and over. In 2012 70% of them turned out, but this poll this week of 15,179 includes just 657 people over  65, or 4.3% of the total. The poll therefore can't be said to reflect the opinion of those most likely to vote.

Here's what it does reflect. In 2012 turnout of people 18-44 averaged about 47%, yet this poll is 46% of that demographic, or 6,920 people, only 3,252 of which are likely to show up in November 2016.

You can make a poll say anything you want by playing games like this.

The NBC/SM poll is trying to shape opinion, not measure it.

Already ridiculed in July, Albuquerque Italian restaurant ups the ante from black olive tapenade to black olives matter T-shirts

Offensive WaPo "obituary" for John McLaughlin lumps him in with his intellectual inferiors to dismiss him

Liberalism prefers processed news

Nixon loyalists remain unforgivable at WaPo.

Erik Wemple, here, a liberal fundamentalist if there ever was one, whom McLaughlin wouldn't have needed five minutes to wither, let alone thirty:

"pugnacious style as a host of a political chat show helped usher in the era of impolite punditry"

"goaded journalists and pundits into moving beyond fact into the argumentative terrain of ideological talking points and rhetorical hyperbole"

"Mr. McLaughlin’s impact can be glimpsed almost any night on cable news channels, for better or worse. ... his show’s staccato approach to wringing opinions from guests previewed the Internet’s addiction to fast and unprocessed news bites."

Obamacare is only attractive to the poorest and sickest, but is "an utter disaster for the working and middle class"

So says Robert Laszewski for CNBC, here:

Obamacare has insured millions of people—particularly in the states that have expanded Medicaid (albeit a currently unsustainable program in its own right) and it has been attractive to the poorest that get bigger subsidies and lower deductibles in the exchanges. But Obamacare has been an utter disaster for the working and middle class that seem willing to buy the unattractive plans only if they are sick and can come out ahead on the deal.

Obama interrupted his vacation yesterday to fundraise for Hillary, but to oversee Louisiana flooding not so much

The Boston Globe didn't even bat an eye.

Tens of thousands of homes are flooded out in Louisiana, but your president has to be a Republican before the news media give a shit

Rod Dreher can only wonder here.

Hey Rod! The media only care when the poor blacks get flooded out. You working and middle class people don't count. And you don't have an advocate in the White House. Brownie is only for the rich (and for the poor only on paper).

The McLaughlin Group is history: John McLaughlin dead at 89

Reported here.

The show was a singular venue for decades to hear weekly the "old right" point of view as understood by Patrick J. Buchanan, long-time friend and associate of John McLaughlin going back to the days of Richard M. Nixon.

Some of those ideas now find expression in the candidacy of Donald John Trump.

Democrats want the Hyde Amendment ended, want your tax dollars to pay for abortions

Story here.

Doofus Joe Biden, VP, exposes the guy with the nuclear codes while saying Trump can't be trusted with them

Here:

“There’s a guy that follows me right back here, has the nuclear codes,” Biden said, turning and pointing. “So God forbid anything happened to the president and I had to make a decision, the codes are with me.” 

Video here.

Hillary Clinton deleted "you have the right to be believed" from website last February, six months later The Hill notices that BuzzFeed has finally noticed

Feminists haven't focused like a laser beam on Hillary's hypocrisy because . . . ?

From The Hill story here:

Clinton tweeted in September [2015] that every sexual assault survivor had "the right to be believed." ... Broaddrick, who claimed Bill Clinton raped her in 1978 when he was serving as Arkansas' attorney general, decided to tweet after hearing Clinton's statements on sexual assault. ... The line from Clinton's website was [reportedly] deleted in February after Broaddrick's [tweet] made headlines [in January 2016].

Reuters/Ipsos has Clinton +6 in early August, but . . .

. . . in early July she was +11.

The New York Times focuses on possible corruption of Paul Manafort, not on the real corruption of Hillary Clinton

Here.

Milwaukeeans volunteer to clean up rioters' mess, Governor Walker calls it "selfless caring" after blacks burn down Indian-owned BP gas station

Yeah, right up there with Jesus dying for our sins, guv'ner.

From the story here:

"I commend the citizens who volunteered in clean-up efforts this morning," Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker said. This act of selfless caring sets a powerful example for Milwaukee's youth and the entire community. I join Milwaukee's leaders and citizens in calling for continued peace and prayer."

Nobody is going to call this a hate crime committed by blacks against Indian-Americans, but that's what it was. The gas station has been at the center of controversy since at least July 19th when clerk Bhupinder Sidhu fired shots to disperse juvenile delinquents from his store, some of whom earlier in June had broken windows at the station. 

From that story here:

According to the complaint, Sidhu told investigators shortly after Sherman Park closed at 10:00 p.m. on Tuesday night, a large group of juveniles came to the store. An employee attempted to close the entrance to the store -- but couldn't because someone was holding the door open. Sidhu claimed he feared for his safety and his employee's safety -- so he took his loaded Smith & Wesson M&P .40 caliber shield handgun from behind the counter and exited the store. He said he then pointed the handgun in the air, and fired two rounds "in order to try to get people to leave the store." Investigators reviewed surveillance video, which shows Sidhu exiting the store while holding what appears to be a handgun. Sidhu can then be seen raising the gun in the air -- and the crowd can be seen scattering. Sidhu and two others are then seen following the crowd until everyone left the area near the gas station.

Black cop shoots black perp, blacks burn down six Milwaukee businesses anyway, Governor Walker ready to send in the Guard

Walker would have made a good Chief Executive, except for the free-trade and illegal immigration stuff.  Like the Bush Clan, Walker lacks "the vision thing".

From the AP-Obama report, here:

Six businesses were burned and 17 people arrested in violence a few hours after a black police officer shot a black man. Police said the victim was fleeing a traffic stop and was holding a gun when he was shot. ... Walker says he took the step after receiving a request from Milwaukee County Sheriff David Clarke and talking with Mayor Tom Barrett and the Guard's leader. His announcement says the Guard will be in position to help "upon request."

US Attorney for the Southern District of NY and FBI field offices said to be cooperating in Clinton Foundation investigation

FBI Director James Comey before Congress July 7th would neither confirm nor deny such an investigation of the Clinton Family Crime Foundation exists.

Story here.

Ted Cruz' "very unfavorable" rating hits 52% in Texas

Data here.

Documents released last week implicate Cheryl Mills in covering up Hillary's private e-mail server

From the Daily Beast here:

The top aide to Secretary of State Hillary Clinton was told in late 2012 that a non-profit watchdog group had requested information about Clinton’s email, including the number of accounts she used, according to documents released Wednesday. ... [The aide] was alerted to the request, from the group Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington (CREW), via an email from a State Department spokesman, Brock Johnson, on Dec. 11, 2012. [The aide] was told that the group had filed a “significant” request seeking “records sufficient to show the number of email accounts of or associated with Secretary Hillary Rodham Clinton…” The aide, Chief of Staff Cheryl Mills, and other Clinton advisers knew at the time that the secretary was using a private email system to conduct official business. But despite the information request, the State Department told the group that it had found no “responsive” records. “This is evidence that Cheryl Mills covered up Hillary Clinton’s email system,” Tom Fitton, the president of Judicial Watch, a conservative group that sued for information about that original 2012 request, said in a statement. “She was aware of the [Freedom of Information Act] request about Clinton’s email accounts and allowed a response to go out that was a plain lie. And you can bet if Cheryl Mills knew about this inquiry, then Hillary Clinton did, too.”

Smartphone poll of 100,000 daily finds Trump walloping Clinton 64 to 36

Story here.

Police show restraint after rioting in Milwaukee, at least four businesses burn to the ground, alderman says "it may not have been right" but threatens more

Khalif Rainey, the thugs' man in power

Whattaya mean "may", alderman?

The Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel reports here:

After an hours-long confrontation with officers, police reported at 10:15 p.m. that a gas station at N. Sherman Blvd. and W. Burleigh St. was set on fire. Police said firefighters could not for a time get close to the blaze because of gunshots.

Later, fires were started at businesses — including a BMO Harris Bank branch, a beauty supply company and O'Reilly Auto Parts stores — near N. 35th and W. Burleigh streets, a grim and emphatic Mayor Tom Barrett said. He spoke at a midnight news conference at the District 3 police station at N. 49th St. and W. Lisbon Ave. ... The mayor said police had "shown an amazing amount of restraint" Saturday evening. ...

“This entire community has sat back and witnessed how Milwaukee, Wis., has become the worst place to live for African-Americans in the entire country,” [Sherman Park Alderman Khalif] Rainey said. “Now this is a warning cry. Where do we go from here? Where do we go as a community from here? Do we continue – continue with the inequities, the injustice, the unemployment, the under-education, that creates these byproducts that we see this evening? … The black people of Milwaukee are tired. They’re tired of living under this oppression. This is their existence. This is their life. This is the life of their children. Now what has happened tonight may have not been right; I’m not justifying that. But no one can deny the fact that there’s problems, racial problems, here in Milwaukee, Wis., that have to be closely, not examined, but rectified. Rectify this immediately. Because if you don’t, this vision of downtown, all of that, you’re one day away. You’re one day away.”

John McLaughlin, whose health appears to have declined markedly since Christmas, fails to appear on this week's McLaughlin Group

Watch it here, but it's uncomfortable without the old boy, who turned 89 in March.

Why it's not a coincidence the polls now favor Hillary

Because Trump touted his poll successes throughout the primaries. So, poll now to make him look like a failure. A simple strategy. Don't measure opinion, shape it!

Pick the target . . . easy, there's only one in this circumstance.

Freeze it . . . attack him from all sides, media, academia, Congress, Hollywood, donors, Democrats, Republican establishment. Keep up constant pressure from every angle.

Personalize it . . . never talk about the issues he talks about, about all the people thronging his appearances, only talk about the man, how "unfit" he is, what a clown he is, how inarticulate, offensive and classless!

Polarize it . . . caricature him as if he didn't belong, like he was beneath us, you know like Mar-a-Lago Club didn't belong in Palm Beach. Treat him like people who work for a living, not like one of us. Accuse his movement of being violent, outside the mainstream, while having your thugs do actual harm to his supporters.

Make him and them feel all alone, like strangers in their own country. 

Bush v Dukakis August 1988

Dukakis 49%

Bush 42%

Trump thanks Gen. Hayden and the fifty for coming forward so everyone can know who the foreign policy fuck-ups are

From Spengler, here, who points out that it's bad enough that the emperor wears no clothes, but the empire has no tailors, either:

Trump responded, “The names on this letter are the ones the American people should look to for answers on why the world is a mess, and we thank them for coming forward so everyone in the country knows who deserves the blame for making the world such a dangerous place.” That is exactly correct. He might have added that they are incapable of learning from their mistakes and doomed to repeat them if given the opportunity.

But humorless liberal dipshits really do believe this claptrap that Trump is an ISIS recruiter

Here, last December.

Only dipshit liberals pretend anyone took Trump literally

Hillary: A border fence for me, but not for thee

This ten-footer surrounds Hillary's entire property in New York

Story here.

The 2015 cost of Medicaid expansion for 10 million people: $63.66 billion

As reported here:

In a recent report to Congress, the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services said the cost of expansion was $6,366 per person for 2015, about 49 percent higher than previously estimated. ... An estimated 9 million to 10 million people are covered by the Medicaid expansion, and many of the remaining uninsured are likely to be eligible if their states accept. Most of the new Medicaid recipients are low-income adults.

Anti-Trump Macy's closes 15% of stores (about 100) after sales decline six quarters straight

From the story here:

Neil Saunders, CEO of research firm Conlumino, said the Macy's store closures are "sensible," but largely the result of a "self-inflicted defeat."

Hillary doesn't notice terrorist five feet away

US States ranked by number of public officials convicted of crimes 1998-2007

The co-founders of ISIS

Not a conservative A. Barton Hinkle complains Trump is not a conservative

Here.

What he means is Trump is not a libertarian. To Hinkle, Republican Senator Mark Kirk of Illinois is a "leading intellectual light" of conservatism.

There he goes again, Bogarting that joint.

Just another thing Obama has screwed up