Friday, May 3, 2013

April Unemployment Drops To 7.5%, Full-Time Job Gains Ominously Slowing

The full unemployment report in pdf from the Bureau of Labor Statistics is here.

The official number of unemployed is unchanged from March at 11.7 million, while other broad categories are little changed from a month ago.

Part-time for economic reasons was back up almost 280,000 to 7.9 million while the average work week in April declined by 0.2 hours to 34.4 hours, a sign that part-timing may be an emerging trend as ObamaCare rules begin to percolate through the economy.

Job additions were relatively strong in April at 165,000 and a significant upward revision to March helped keep the prior twelve month average jobs gained figure to 169,000, unchanged from the last report.

Gains in full-time, year over year, took a huge jump in this month's report in the not-seasonally-adjusted category compared to last month's report when 880,000 full-time jobs were added from March 2012 to March 2013 (about 73,333 per month). For April 2012 to April 2013 the figure soars to 1,675,000 full-time jobs added year over year (about 139,583 per month).

As it turns out, that only looks like a big number compared to the last fifteen months of year-over-year full-time job additions, not-seasonally-adjusted:

April 2013/April 2012 = 1.675 million
March/March = 0.880 million
Feb/Feb = 1.604 million
Jan/Jan = 1.989 million
Dec/Dec = 2.029 million
Nov/Nov = 2.377 million
Oct/Oct = 2.589 million
Sept/Sept = 2.698 million
Aug/Aug = 1.928 million
Jul/Jul = 2.372 million
Jun/Jun = 2.769 million
May/May = 2.016 million
April/April = 2.155 million
March/March = 2.730 million
Feb/Feb = 1.856 million
Jan/Jan = 1.506 million.

In other words, for the current year 2013 to date the average report of full-time job gains year-over-year has been just 1.537 million January to April, down over 25% from the same period last year when the average was 2.062 million, and down nearly 32% from 2012's average report of 2.252 million full-time job gains year-over-year.

Whatever happy talk may be happening out there, the fact of the matter is that the pace of full-time job gains has definitely slowed to a significant degree while full-time employment remains over 6% off the July 2007 peak of 123.2 million.

Bad news.