Thursday, May 30, 2013

GDP For Q1 2013 Revised Down To 2.4% From 2.5% In Second Estimate


From the report of the Bureau of Economic Analysis, here:

Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States -- increased at an annual rate of 2.4 percent in the first quarter of 2013 (that is, from the fourth quarter to the first quarter), according to the "second" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.  In the fourth quarter, real GDP increased 0.4 percent.

The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "advance" estimate issued last month.  In the advance estimate, real GDP increased 2.5 percent.








To put the second estimate of Q1 2013 real GDP in context, a real rate of growth of 2.4% now is just slightly ahead of the average report of 2.23% during George W. Bush's first term in office. But compared to Barack Obama's first term, it's a world of difference from his performance in his first term with a paltry 0.83% average report.

That said, it used to be the opinion of Ben Bernanke, the Federal Reserve chairman, back in July 2009 that we needed 2.5% growth just to keep the jobless rate constant. That's why under Bush it took so long for jobs to recover after 911. And it's why jobs are taking so long to recover now. With growth of just 2.4%, going forward all we can expect is the current level of unemployment. And you can forget about putting the millions who lost their jobs in the recent financial panic back to work in decent jobs, maybe ever.