Thursday, May 9, 2013

Net Credit Market Debt Contraction In Two Sectors Is Repressing GDP

The domestic financial sector continues net negative in credit market debt outstanding, $3.27 trillion below the October 1, 2008 peak, as of October 2012.










And the household mortgage sector continues net negative in credit market debt outstanding, $1.22 trillion below the January 1, 2008 peak, as of October 2012.











These broken sectors for credit expansion have been large, important channels through which trillions in "money" has historically been created in the economy but no longer is, destroying GDP growth in the process. Until these channels are repaired, or replaced, total credit market debt outstanding will not double every 6-11.5 years as it has since the Second World War, and GDP will not recover to its historic 20th century levels.

TCMDO last doubled between 1999-2007
The level at which total credit market debt owed last doubled starting from 1949 was $49.8 trillion in July 2007. Five years later, in July 2012, the level was only $55.7 trillion when arguably it should have been already $74 trillion.

Something has gone horribly wrong with credit expansion in the United States, and the financial and housing sectors remain ground zero for the problem.