Monday, July 28, 2025

The Detroit News: Harvest of hand-picked crops in Michigan in immediate peril due to Trump deportation program, prices set to rocket higher

 Editorial: Trump must act quickly to avert a harvest crisis

The immigration crisis at the southern border has been replaced by one in America's orchards and farm fields.

With harvest season about to begin in earnest, farmers are desperate for laborers to pick their fruit and vegetables. Already in the Pacific Northwest, much of the cherry crop was left to rot because of the shortage of agricultural workers.

The crisis will soon roll into Michigan, where apples, cherries, blueberries, asparagus and other crops are rapidly ripening. Hand-picked specialty crops are a $6.3 billion industry in Michigan, supporting 41,000 jobs.

The shortage of farm workers has been building for years, due to an aging agricultural workforce, competition from more lucrative and less grueling jobs and restrictions on immigrant labor.

This year, it is exacerbated by the Trump administration's crackdown on unauthorized immigrants and the deportation of those who have entered the country illegally.

Estimates are that 42% of farm workers are undocumented migrants. Recent Immigration and Customs Enforcement raids on farms employing migrants have frightened away many of those workers from the fields where they had been working.

But the work they do hasn't gone away. Fruit and vegetables still need to be harvested. If they're not, it will lead to food waste, shortages and higher prices on the grocery shelves.

When asked about the worker shortage, Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins said the solution lies in greater mechanization of farms and matching the 34 million able bodied Americans who must find jobs or lose their Medicaid benefits with farmers who need workers.

While Rollins is correct that those who can work should be expected to, it's doubtful even the risk of losing health care benefits will coax the jobless into hot, backbreaking farm work.

Her solutions will take time and large capital investments. They won't save this year's harvest.

The Trump administration must take emergency action to assure there are enough workers to bring in the crops this summer and fall.

Rather than deporting migrants willing to fill essential jobs such as harvesting, the administration should grant them seasonal visas and a no-deportation guarantee as long as they are working on farms.

Beyond that, reform is needed for the H-2A visa program that allows farmers to legally employ temporary workers from another country. The application process is too complex and time-consuming. It must be simplified; farmers need help now.

Also at issue is the federal mandatory minimum wage for H-2A visa holders, now set at $18.50 an hour. That's nearly $8 an hour higher than the state minimum wage in Michigan. When added to housing and other costs for these workers, many farmers have to limit their use of the visas.

Longer term, resources should be devoted to recruiting domestic workers for the agriculture industry. Farmers are also being encouraged to raise wages for native-born workers, add benefits and improve working conditions.

All of that is expensive and will inevitably show up in grocery prices. But so will the shortages caused by allowing crops to rot in fields.

The most sensible option for this season is to back off deportation of farm workers while solutions are pursued for either replacing them or giving them legal status.

Sunday, July 27, 2025

The chutzpah: House Freedom Caucus frauds deliver debt upon debt, claim they delivered for taxpayers


 

 House Freedom Caucus: How We're Delivering For Taxpayers in July 2025 | Opinion

... By applying relentless pressure, providing education to the public, and offering alternative solutions, the HFC helped secure significant savings for the American people in the final piece of legislation. ... The national debt now stands at a staggering $37 trillion and is rising by nearly $2 trillion annually.                

In fourteen business days the national debt is up half a trillion dollars to $36.7 trillion from $36.2 trillion on July 3rd.

Fourteen days. 

They can't even tell the truth about that. 

They never stop

 COVID-19 Is Rising Again. Here’s What to Know

As much as we want to put it behind us, COVID-19 isn’t going away. Cases are currently rising across the country in a summer surge. ...

I got ur summer surge right here lol:

 


 

 

 

COVID-19 jabs prevented 2.5 million deaths worldwide according to Stanford study, not 14.4 million in year one alone according to WHO, billions of doses wasted on the young


 

 Covid vaccines ‘saved far fewer lives than first thought’: New study suggests true figure ‘substantially more conservative’ than WHO’s 14.4 million global estimate

... John Ioannidis, a professor of medicine at Stanford University and the study’s first author, said: “I think early estimates were based on many parameters having values that are incompatible with our current understanding.

“In principle, targeting the populations who would get the vast majority of the benefit and letting alone those with questionable risk-benefit and cost-benefit makes a lot of sense. 

“Aggressive mandates and the zealotry to vaccinate everyone at all cost were probably a bad idea.”

More than 13 billion Covid vaccine doses have been administered since 2021. But there have been mounting concerns that vaccines could be harmful for some people, particularly the young, and that the risk was not worth the benefit for a population at little risk from Covid. ...

The over-70s made up nearly 70 per cent of the lives saved, while those aged 60 to 70 accounted for a further 20 per cent. In contrast, under-20s made up just 0.01 per cent of lives saved, and 20 to 30s were 0.07 per cent. ...

The new research was published in Jama Health Forum.

 

Saturday, July 26, 2025

The S&P 500 had five record closes in a row this week, and fourteen so far this year, for what it's worth

The S&P 500 averaged 6,029.95 in June. 

Using 1Q2025 GDP, current valuation of SPX 6,388.64 is 213, 163% higher than the 1938-2019 mean of 81.

Full year valuations around 213 were last seen in 1928-1930: 204, 248, and 228.

Real return since August 2000 through June 2025, two months shy of 25-years, is now up to 5.08% per annum vs. 10.75% per annum October 1975 through August 2000.

The mouse that roared. 

 



Friday, July 25, 2025

Population-adjusted total-vehicle-miles-traveled in the United States is lower in April 2025 than at any point in the Obama depression and is down almost 9% since the April 2005 peak twenty years ago

 


The average price of a new vehicle in 2024 ran ahead of inflation from 1978 by about 75%

 

The average price of a new vehicle in 1978 was about $5,780.

Adjusted for inflation to 2024, that would be about $27,852. 

The actual average price in 2024 was about $48,724. 

The $3.45 average price of gasoline in 2024 was not quite 7% higher than the inflation adjusted price of $3.23/gallon from 1978

 Gasoline prices are moderating slowly in 2025 even as the inflation-adjusted price rises to $3.27.

Gasoline actually averaged $3.27 in the first half of 2025, dead on the money for what it should cost if it were only adjusted for inflation since 1978.

Gasoline retailers like convenience stores don't make their money on gasoline, with profit margins on gasoline in the 2% range. They make it on stuff like milk, the free-market price of which is a great mystery. AI thinks the unregulated price of milk right now would be about $4.00/gallon.

At the corner convenience store near where I live, a gallon of whole milk is a whopping $4.99, but eight miles down the road at my grocery it's only $3.45, so it's a mark-up of 45% for the convenience. 

But my grocery offers a routine discount coupon of 60 cents per gallon of milk, which brings the price down to $2.85, which Sam's can't beat at $3.23. Milk is my grocery's loss leader to get me in the store, like rotisserie chicken is a loss leader for Sam's and Costco, or like gasoline.

Gasoline this morning at Sam's is $3.01/gallon.

My momma told me, you better shop around. 

Meanwhile average fuel economy in 2023 is 27.1 miles on a gallon of gasoline, up from about 17.6 in 1978.

Seems like we should be doing better in that department. 

 


Adjusted for population growth, total vehicle sales in the United States in 2024 are down 35% since the peak in 1978

 At the same time, the average age of a vehicle on the road in 1978 was about 6.6 years, compared with 12.6 years in 2024, up 91%.

 


 

 

 

Thursday, July 24, 2025

They say they come in threes

 




SPX closes at another fresh record: 6363.35

 



When your spell checker oddly describes what it does best

 Here.

 


Iran has far more enriched uranium than people realize

 ... Prior to the Israeli and U.S. strikes, Iran had enriched at least 880 pounds of highly enriched uranium to 60 percent according to the International Atomic Energy Agency.

Relatively speaking, even if it would take some time for Iran to enrich that stockpile to weapons-grade highly enriched uranium (90 percent ) — the amount needed for a modern nuclear missile strike — it could use the 60 percent stockpile it already has to construct Hiroshima-like nuclear bombs.

Iran Watch estimates that Khamenei has enough to build “one or more” of the gun-type bomb known as “Little Boy,” the type of used in Hiroshima. It would only take 132 pounds of uranium enriched to 80 percent.

... while much of the media’s attention has been on Khamenei’s stores of 60 percent highly enriched uranium, we cannot overlook Iran’s 20 percent and 5 percent stockpiles. Prior to the June strikes, Tehran had 606 pounds of the former and 12,150 pounds of the latter.

Iran Watch ominously warns that “20 percent enriched uranium is approximately 90% of the way to weapon-grade and Iran’s stockpile would be sufficient to fuel at least two implosion weapons.” Plus, if further enriched, eventually Khamenei’s 5% stockpile could be used to “fuel at least 10 implosion weapons.” ...

Uranium highly enriched to 60 percent is in a gaseous state and can be stored in cylinders approximately the same size of a scuba tank. Moving or hiding some of them could have been as easy as putting them in the back of a small car or SUV. ...

More

Wednesday, July 23, 2025

SPX closes at 12th record of the year

 6,358.91

From the story here

... “So far, the tariff strategy Trump is pursuing looks very inspired, generating serious income, resulting in major investments in the U.S. to avoid the tariffs, and has yet to cause the disruptions and inflation that the naysayers said were certain,” said Louis Navellier, founder and chief investment officer at Navellier & Associates. “The stock market certainly reflects no fear of negative consequences.” ...

 


 

Like shooting fish in a barrel, except Obama really did wiretap Trump in 2016-2017: The left attacks Trump for saying Epstein is old news and focus on old Obama news instead

That's how they got Manafort after all.

As ever, it is primarily Trump's own clumsy mouth which is what gets him into trouble and keeps him from respectability, but that doesn't mean he isn't right about Obama. 

 

 
 



Tuesday, July 22, 2025

Oh No! They're eating the peacocks . . .

 37 peacocks reported missing from historic hotel...

... He added that the four remaining peacocks at the hotel are acting upset and demonstrating behavior he has “never seen from them before.” ...




GOP U. S. House of Representatives decides to . . .


Not sure what they're smokin' over there at CNBC this afternoon: 

 

... On Tuesday, Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanche said he was speaking with Maxwell’s defense lawyer to see if Maxwell “would be willing to speak with prosecutors” to see if she “has information about anyone who has committed crimes against victims.” ...

... Blanche previously served as a criminal defense lawyer for Trump when the president was indicted in four separate cases after ending his first White House term in January 2017. ...

Well duh

 

Trend for Oceanic Nino Index, revised, 1951-2024

 This revision incorporates data revisions since the 2004-05 season, now to two decimal places instead of one starting in season 2005-06.

Conclusions remain unchanged from previously: overall anomaly trend is slightly cooler, forecasting a drier West Coast and wetter Great Lakes region; cool anomaly seasons are trending slightly less severe, and the trend of warm anomaly seasons trending higher may have been broken, but only time will tell.

 


 

Food items making new all time high average prices in the United States in June 2025

 


 All prices are FRED data from the St. Louis Fed in U.S. dollars.

 

The headlines are correct. Average beef prices are out of this world in June 2025:

Round Roast $7.762/lb

All Uncooked Beef Roasts $8.203 

Ground Chuck $6.103

Choice Chuck Roast $8.197 

100% Ground Beef $6.12

All Uncooked Ground Beef $6.342

All Uncooked Beef Steaks $11.491

Choice Sirloin Steak $12.923.

 

But that's not all:

Whole Chicken $2.086

Frozen Orange Juice Concentrate $4.493

Coffee $8.132

Potato Chips $6.815

Ice Cream $6.493.

 

Most of the other items in my list of over 40 basic food products remain near their average all time highs. Food price inflation was 3% year-over-year in June 2025. There has been no actual food price deflation since 2016.