Wednesday, November 9, 2016

National Review contributor tries to make the case that Trump 2016 would have beaten Obama 2012

The author repeatedly mentions that he knows he's comparing apples to oranges but never adjusts his figures for population growth over the period.

As of this morning, Trump is underperforming Romney by 1.9 million votes, but the country has grown by 9 million since 2012.

The Trump performance figure in 2016 presupposes having so much more to work with from the increased population growth but still comes up short of Romney who had so much less to work with because of a smaller population. 

Trump toyed with the idea of competing in 2012 but wisely left Romney to do that and fail, knowing instinctively that the shiny, happy and clean novelty incumbent was going to be very hard to beat.

Obama was beatable in 2012, had fewer than 500,000 votes in four states east of the Mississippi gone a different way, but Romney possessed insufficient charisma compared to Obama, too few boots on the ground to make up for that, and the formidable problem of Obama's incumbency.

And on top of all that, Romney was a lousy candidate. His wife had to reassure us that "Mitt doesn't change positions".

As with all fortunes from Chinese cookies, always add "in bed" for maximum amusement. 

Trump estimated to have spent about $5 per vote to win, Clinton $10 per vote to lose

Story here.

Polling in Wisconsin was the poster boy for polling failure in 2016

From the story here:

There were no surveys released this year from Wisconsin that showed Trump with a lead. 

Clinton held a 6.5 point lead in the Badger State heading into Election Day, and the state was not even discussed as on par with Michigan or Pennsylvania as a potential blue state pick-up for Trump.

Trump’s victory in Wisconsin — a state that has not gone for the GOP nominee since 1984 — helped him seal the deal.

In Michigan and Pennsylvania, deep blue states the GOP candidate has not won in decades, polls showed the race tightening in the home stretch, but only one poll, from Trafalgar Group, showed Trump with the lead.

The revulsion election, Obama vs. Hillary, shows 10.25 million missing Democrat voters, and Trump underperforming both Romney and McCain

Obama garnered 69.499 million votes in 2008, so far in 2016 Hillary has just 59.245 million.

Trump is underperforming Romney by 1.912 million votes, 59.022 million to 60.934 million, and also McCain, who collected 59.950 million votes in 2008, by just shy of 1 million votes.

Expect changes to these spreads as the 2016 numbers finalize. 

The revulsion election update: turnout down 3.6% from 2012

So far 124.6 million have voted in 2016, down 4.6 million from 2012 when 129.2 million voted.

Expect revisions in this space in coming days.

That useless rag USA Today says turnout was up 4.7%, missing the revulsion election

"Voter turnout up 4.7% around the country", says that useless rag USA Away. 

The data in the upper Midwest says otherwise.

In Michigan, turnout was 4.7 million, a little lower than in 2012 when 4.8 million showed up. In 2008 5 million did.

In Wisconsin, turnout was 2.9 million vs. 3.1 million in 2012 and 3 million in 2008.

In Pennsylvania 6 million turned out yesterday, the same as in 2008, up slightly from 2012's 5.8 million.

In Ohio there's been a steady decline since 2008 when 5.7 million turned out. In 2012 it fell to 5.6 million and just 5.3 million in Election 2016.

When the final numbers come in, I'll bet we'll see this phenomenon of suppressed turnout in other places as well. And generally speaking, suppressed turnout favors Republicans because Republicans are often more energized, more scrupulous and more dutiful, as was the case yesterday.

What we had here was a revulsion election. People stayed home because they couldn't vote for either candidate. And because the voters found Hillary more intolerable than The Donald, Mr. Trump is our new president. The smoke generated by the ugliness of the battle on the field obscured the fact of troops staying behind in camp.

In the end America chose the rake over the robber, which was the right choice.

But don't confuse it with a sea change.

Polling on the morning of Election 2016 in the toss-ups vs. the outcome

CLICK IMAGE TO ENLARGE
Florida: Trump wins by 1.4, vs. 0.2 predicted
Maine CD2: Trump wins by 9.8 with 90% counted vs. 0.5 predicted
New Hampshire: Clinton wins by 0.6 vs. 0.3 with 97% counted (!)
Nevada: Clinton wins by 2.4 vs. Trump predicted by 0.8
North Carolina: Trump wins by 3.8 vs. 1.0 predicted
Pennsylvania: Trump wins by 1.1 vs. Clinton predicted by 1.9
Colorado: Clinton wins by 2.2 with 88% counted vs. 2.9 predicted
Iowa: Trump wins by 9.4 with 99% counted vs. 3.0 predicted
Michigan: Trump winning by 0.3 vs. Clinton predicted by 3.4
Ohio: Trump wins by 8.6 vs. 3.5 predicted
Arizona: Trump wins by 4.0 with 98% counted vs. 4.0 predicted (!)
Maine: Clinton wins by 3.0 with 91% counted vs. 4.5 predicted
Georgia: Trump wins by 5.7 vs. 4.8 predicted
Virginia: Clinton wins by 4.7 with 99% counted vs. 5.0 predicted
New Mexico: Clinton wins by 8.3 vs. 5.0 predicted
Wisconsin: Trump wins by 1.0 vs. Clinton predicted by 6.5 (arguably the biggest upset of the evening)

Trump tells the nation Hillary called him to concede


Fox reports Hillary has called Trump to concede

VP elect Mike Pence is taking the stage.

The numbskulls on Fox are still debating whether Trump can claim victory on stage

Trump shocked by taking Wisconsin in addition to Florida and Ohio, then Pennsylvania put him over the top, and Michigan and Arizona will put the nails in Clinton's coffin.

Over an hour ago the New York Times projected Trump to win with 305.

All this talk at Fox is just jibber jabber.


Thanks to Mitch McConnell the Scalia seat will be filled by Donald Trump

Jonathan Turley is saying right now that Trump is going to make almost unprecedented changes to the make-up of the Supreme Court.

Hillary hasn't gone to bed

She's bleaching every memory device in sight.

Asian stocks plunge on Trump victory

The Nikkei 225 is down over 5% at this hour. The Hang Seng is down over 3%. Smaller losses elsewhere in Asia.

Trump is coming for you, Asia.

Hillary won't appear tonight to concede, Podesta says she's not done yet

Hillary was done a half hour ago.

Pennsylvania puts Donald Trump over the top at 0140 hours: The 45th president of the United States


Trump on verge of presidency


Tuesday, November 8, 2016

Bob Dole votes for Trump, George Bush doesn't vote at all

That, my friends, is the difference between the greatest generation, and the generation to which it gave birth.

Last night Mark Levin almost sounded like the anti-immigration Pat Buchanan he has so often derided

Tonight he's worried the conservative panhandle of Florida isn't turning out for Trump. The guy has spent most of 2016 railing against Donald Trump. What the hell does he expect?

The fact of the matter is Donald Trump doesn't have a ground game, and the Republican Party hates the guy and isn't working for him in the absence of that. It could, but it isn't.

Meanwhile the vicious infighting among Republicans which has continued since Trump was a fait accompli has simply demoralized the rank and file, the base of the party.   

October 2016 climate summary for Grand Rapids, Michigan: 17th warmest on record and 8th wettest

October 2016 climate summary for Grand Rapids, Michigan


Average temperature was 54.7 degrees F. Normal is 51.3. The month ranked 17th warmest October since 1892.

The YTD average temperature was 54.2. The normal YTD average temperature is 51.1. The YTD average temperature in the hottest full year on record in 2012 was 55.8.

The lowest temperature in October was 33. The normal lowest temperature is 28. The highest temperature in October was 79, which is also the normal highest.

October 2016 was the 8th wettest on record with 6.15 inches of precipitation. Normal is 2.92 inches. YTD precipitation is 40.09 inches, normal 29.23.

There were 10 Cooling Degree Days in October. Normal is 8. YTD there were 936 CDD, the 15th warmest on record so far. Normal CDD is 694.

Heating Degree Days totaled 44 in September and 324 in October, for a total of 368 for the season so far. Normal HDD seasonally is as follows: July, 6, August, 14, September, 132 and October, 440 for a seasonal normal to date of 592.

Actual lower HDD were indicative of the warmer conditions prevailing after the end of the El Nino this summer. The Very Strong El Nino of 2015-16, averaging 1.43 on the index and 15 months long, was longer but weaker than the 1997-98 episode, which averaged 1.56 on the index and was 13 months long. The 1982-83 VSE averaged 1.3 on the index and was 15 months long.

The Michigan GOP just called me from Lansing

They asked me to vote Republican today in order to "make America great again", but couldn't bring themselves actually to mention their presidential candidate's name, Donald John Trump.

Cowards.

Monday, November 7, 2016

Trump has left the stage in NH and now travels to the last stop of the campaign right here in Grand Rapids, MI

But I am old and tired and to bed I must go.

You, however, can watch him here.

Trump in NH: Massachusetts is represented by Pocahontas


In NH Trump mentions Obama is using Air Force One to campaign for Hillary . . .

. . . but never mentions it's at your expense.

Obama is illegally using tax dollars to electioneer.

Mike Pence told NH tonight it could decide the election tomorrow

And he's right: Just 4 Electoral College votes in NH could put Trump at 270 tomorrow.

Trump in NH: Restore honesty to government by getting rid of Clinton

Lock her up! they yell.

On the eve of Election 2016, Trump now needs just 4 Electoral College votes to win this thing tomorrow

Here is the No Toss-Ups map from Real Clear Politics, at 1940 hours.

As you can see, Trump just needs NH (Clinton +0.6) or PA (Clinton +1.9) or VA (Clinton +5) or MI (Clinton +3.4) or CO (Clinton +2.9) or NM (Clinton +5) to win this thing.

Come on people. Say No! to the establishment on both sides. Give Trump the chance to turn America around! Take the country back for the people!

This is undoubtedly your last chance. If Hillary is elected, your guns will go away, along with your ammo, freedom of speech will be curtailed, law and order will continue under assault as liberal appointees fill the judiciary, you will become dependent on government for healthcare, foreigners will flood the land even worse than before, your good paying jobs will fly away to cheaper markets abroad, taxes will soar, economic growth will continue to stagnate, and you'll be lucky to inherit your parents' house because you won't be able to afford one of your own. All because of "pussy". 





The Michigan Kent County Republicans just interrupted my posting with a recorded call from Mike Pence asking me to vote for Donald Trump

It's about time.

It's the only call I've received AT ALL asking me to vote for Trump.

It's called CYA, covering your ass.

Yeah, well, I'll be voting for Trump happily, but not for that prick Justin Amash, or any other Republican where there's a US Taxpayers Party candidate to vote for. Republicans don't care about me, only about themselves.

Whether Trump wins or loses, the Republican Party is finished. You don't nominate someone and then betray him.

Vote Trump: Government work usurped real manufacturing work under liberal Republican George H. W. Bush in 1989


Bill Clinton's killer of 76 at Waco in 1993 Janet Reno has died at 78

She was diagnosed with Parkinson's already in 1995, two years after the infamous deed.

She did not reproduce.

Green Party candidate Jill Stein warns Hillary is a mushroom cloud waiting to happen



Comey lets Hillary off the hook, the stock market cheers for corruption


Hillary can't claim she'll continue the good economy because it isn't a good economy

From the macroeconomic point of view of GDP, jobs and homeownership, the economy under Obama has been a bad joke.

Economic growth is lagging, lagging I say, the horrible, awful George W. Bush . . . by $2 trillion. Current dollar GDP under Obama has grown a paltry 28.2%. Under Bush, the worst in the post-war until now, it at least grew by 41.7%. Obama should kill to have George Bush's economic growth, and Hillary probably will, by starting another war. Nothing boosts GDP like war-spending.

Meanwhile job growth as measured by monthly total nonfarm has slowed in 2016 by over 20% compared with 2015, to 181,000 new jobs monthly vs. 229,000 new jobs monthly last year. Is that a hopeful trend?

And if you think 2015 was so great, it wasn't. If the same percentage of the population had been working in 2015 as worked in 2007, there would have been 7 million more employed than there were. There has been a huge contraction in employment, which explains the GDP problem. Without work there is no product.

You can see this vividly in full-time jobs. Compared to October 2007, we have just 2.6 million more full-time jobs in October 2016 than we had in 2007. Think about that. Just 2.6 million more full-time jobs but population has increased by 22 million. After recessions, full-time has always recovered to the previous highs in 2-3 years, but not under Obama. This time it took 8 years, a terrible stain on the economic record.

Next consider housing. There have been 6.4 million completed foreclosures since September 2008 even as the Feds have done everything they can to get housing prices to recover, distorting the economy to the point that today the typical $247,000 existing home is unaffordable for 90% of individual wage earners. No wonder the homeownership rate, at 63.5%, has plunged to a level last seen in 1985.

In the end about all Hillary surrogates have to boast of is the stock market. Larry Kudlow featured one on his radio program this weekend doing just that. But estimates of how many Americans own stocks vary considerably. Gallup recently put it at 52%. Pew in 2013 put it at 45%. Shockingly, the Federal Reserve itself estimates it's more like 13-15%. In the best case only half the country is reaping benefits from stocks, and probably a lot less than half.

Those people who had the foresight to invest in March 2009 have done extremely well. On average the S&P 500 is up over 17% per year since then through September 2016.

But how have long term investors done, people who buy and hold in retirement accounts? Since the last stock market boom peaked in August 2000, they are up only 4.32% per year. That's almost 64% worse than the historical post-war performance of 11.9% with little upside on the horizon as the market has made new all-time highs and is obscenely valued.

Nothing Hillary Clinton is proposing looks remotely likely to improve any of these measures, except maybe by starting a new war.

My boy will be 18 next year. Please don't vote for her.

With polls opening in about 24 hours, 12 states and one congressional district in Maine are Toss Ups

Maine confuses the math because it awards Electoral College votes by congressional district. The race is a toss-up in congressional district 2 where Trump is slightly ahead. If he wins it he gets one Electoral College vote. Congressional district 1 will go to Clinton and she will get its one EC vote, based on the polling data there. Maine is unaccountably listed twice in this table from Real Clear Politics, making it not real clear. "Maine (2)" shouldn't appear in the list, only "Maine CD2 (1)". You'll notice Wisconsin isn't in this list. Why Trump spent valuable time and resources there in the last couple of weeks I don't understand. Virginia would have made more sense, but it too is now absent from the Toss-Ups.

So, with 241 EC votes already projected in the Trump column, if Trump ran this table he'd win overwhelmingly with 320.

If Trump simply keeps what he's got but turns Florida, he wins with 270.

If he doesn't win Florida he'll have to win Pennsylvania and Colorado to win with 270.

Alternatively a win in Pennsylvania and long shot Michigan would give him 277 to win it.

Trump plans to make his last stop of the 2016 campaign tonight in Michigan, right here in Grand Rapids.

Even though polling looks slightly better in New Mexico than in Michigan, New Mexico seems like an even bigger long shot.




Sunday, November 6, 2016

Liberal dipshit at CNBC John Harwood asked Clinton campaign's John Podesta: What should I ask Jeb tomorrow?

Here.

Usually the media already know what to ask, but Harwood is too dumb to know.

In my opinion.
dipshit

Trump is a machine

He's speaking in Michigan right now, then flies to an appearance in Pittsburgh, and finishes in Virginia.

It's 8 frickin' PM people. It's going to be a very long night yet for Donald Trump. 

The Donald is working for us like no one else.

The man is indefatigable.

So, the FBI's had a search warrant to investigate Weiner's 650,000 e-mails for 5 days and announces today it's got bupkis

Yeah, bupkis, that's the ticket.

Story here.

Mike Huckabee just called to tell me to vote . . .

. . . but not for anyone in particular.

Useless.

Theoretical gun sales up 95% in Obama era compared to Bush

NICS firearm background checks totaled almost 78 million under George W. Bush, but under Barack Insane Obama that number has soared to 152 million, with two months still to go in 2016.

On a daily basis that's easily going to exceed 52,000 every day under Obama compared to 26,712 every day under Bush.


To see any Trump appearance over the last year . . .

. . . just click here for the Right Side Broadcasting You Tube channel. Everything is archived, and you can search by most recent, most viewed, etc.

Our un-American president Barack Obama comes perilously close to encouraging illegal aliens to vote without fear

He uses the slippery rhetoric, does he have any other kind?, that it is the simple act of voting which makes you a citizen.

Here, in response to a question also composed in slippery fashion to propose the hypothetical case of an "undocumented citizen" voting (an oxymoron), to which the president replies:

"When you vote you are a citizen yourself." 

As John Podesta has reminded us via Wikileaks, it's Bill Clinton's 1993 motor voter law which is the mechanism preferred by the left to get illegals to vote:

On the picture ID, the one thing I have thought of in that space is that if you show up on Election Day with a drivers license with a picture, attest that you are a citizen, you have a right to vote in Federal elections.

David Brooks, the sneering elitist Jew cuckservative at the NYT thinks globalization, massive immigration and feminism have been good for America

As long as by America you mean not whitey, otherwise known as the majority of the country.


DAVID BROOKS: So we had a lot of good things over the years that were really good for America. I think globalization has been really good for America. I think the influx of immigrants has been really good for America. Feminism has been really good for America. But there are a lot of people who used to be up in society, because of those three good things, are now down, a lot of high school-educated white guys. And they have been displaced.


Hillary's maid Marina Santos had illegal access to classified e-mails, both electronic and printed, and to classified faxes

Reported here:

As secretary of state, Hillary Clinton routinely asked her maid to print out sensitive government e-mails and documents — including ones containing classified information — from her house in Washington, DC, e-mails and FBI memos show. But the housekeeper lacked the security clearance to handle such material.

In fact, Marina Santos was called on so frequently to receive e-mails that she may hold the secrets to E-mailgate — if only the FBI and Congress would subpoena her and the equipment she used. ...

Just how sensitive were the papers Santos presumably handled? The FBI noted Clinton periodically received the Presidential Daily Brief — a top-secret document prepared by the CIA and other US intelligence agencies — via the secure fax. 

A 2012 “sensitive” but unclassified e-mail from Hanley to Clinton refers to a fax the staff wanted Clinton “to see before your Netanyahu mtg. Marina will grab for you.”




Saturday, November 5, 2016

Liberal Jonathan Turley says media have spiked the "Clinton University" fraud story


As an academic, I find both Trump University and Laureate to be deeply troubling stories. Yet, only one has been pursued by the media to any significant degree.

LA Times journalist caught wishing Trump dead


Forget the fundamental transformation, Trump is just days away from delivering justice to the forgotten Americans


Iraq War vote, October 11, 2002: Hillary lied (along with Biden, Kerry, Reid and Schumer), people died


McClatchy: 51% think Hillary did something illegal, 26% think Trump did

Story here.

If liberalism stands for dishonesty and lying as Pharrell Williams says . . .

. . . then election fraud cannot be far behind. And theft, murder, and treason.

Quoted here:

“Has [Hillary] been dishonest about things? Sure. Have you?” Williams said of Clinton, before insisting that “she don’t lie no more than any other politician does.”

Friday, November 4, 2016

Carrying the water for Democrats, the NY Times lies about "healthy job growth": Additions are more than 20% behind the 2015 rate


The Bureau of Labor Statistics states up front in this latest economic snapshot that additions to nonfarm payrolls are way behind the 2015 average in the first ten months of 2016:



Trump garners crowds on his own merits, Hillary needs celebs to get hers

Story here in USA Away, a newspaper so thin your parakeet will pee right through it.

Donald Trump's latest video





Anthony Weiner chasing Lady Godiva, no doubt


Compared to October 2007, there are just 2.6 million more full-time jobs in October 2016

You talkin' to me?
In October 2007 there were 122 million employed full-time, in October 2016 124.6 million.

Meanwhile part-time jobs are up 3 million over the period, from 24.7 million to 27.7 million.

That's an extra 5.6 million jobs total in 9 years, that's it. Population is up 21 million.

Way to go, Brownie! 

Heh Heh Holy Shit: Stupid liberals can't even spell "syphilis", let alone "Mein Kampf"


Warning: Sneering anti-religious bigotry also on display in additon to the stupidity and vulgarity.



Obama claimed repeatedly he had al Qaeda on the run, but now they're threatening our election: Or is that voter suppression?


There he goes again: Hack for Hillary Glenn Thrush caught a second time giving Clinton campaign pre-publication review

This morning's Electoral College prediction with 4 days to Election 2016: Clinton 298 to Trump 240

Clinton begins with 226 Electoral College votes on the Real Clear Politics map.

The average of the last poll and the polling average this morning indicates she wins FL (29) by less than 3 points, VA (13) by more than 4 points, PA (20) by 2.5 points, ME-2 (1) by more than 1 point, and CO (9) by more than 1 point.

Trump begins with 180 Electoral College votes and wins NC (15) by 3.9 points, NH (4) by less than 1 point, OH (18) by more than 4 points, IA (6) by less than 1 point, AZ (11) by 4.5 points, and NV (6) by 1 point.

The most recent polls are all tied up in NH, IA, CO and NV.

Clinton is ahead by only 2 points in the latest polls in PA and ME-2. Her margins in the averages are razor thin in FL (1.2) and ME-2 (0.7) and thin in PA (3.0) and CO (2.6).

Trump is ahead by only 1 point in the latest poll in GA (a phony to make him spend money there?). His margins in the averages are razor thin in NC (0.8), NH (1.5), and IA (1.4) and thin in OH (3.3) and NV (2.0).

Clinton's objective is clear: Take away NH, IA and NV from Trump and make him spend money in NC and OH.

Trump's objective is more daunting, to keep NC, NH, IA, OH and NV while pressing hard in PA, ME-2, FL and CO. Trump needs 30 more Electoral College votes to win, which he can get in a few ways, say by winning FL and ME-2, or he can win even if he loses FL by winning PA, CO and ME-2.

Clinton's vulnerability in PA, ME-2, FL and CO adds up to 59 Electoral College votes.

Trump's vulnerability in NC, NH, IA, OH and NV adds up to 49 Electoral College votes.

Thursday, November 3, 2016

Two days ago Hillary claimed she was in NY on 911 when she was in DC singing on the Capitol steps

And John Hinderaker has the videos to prove it, here.

What a creepy ass liar she is.

Dilbert knows which politicians are the real narcissists


Peter Kadzik, Assistant Attorney General, has been the Clinton campaign's mole in the Justice Department, sending heads-up e-mails to John Podesta

Wikileaks. Here.

Lock 'em all up.

Hillary lied to everyone about turning over all work-related e-mails: FBI finds such e-mails on Weiner's laptop which weren't

Destroying government property is a criminal offense in addition to the offense of obstruction of justice and committing perjury. Transmitting government communications to unauthorized civilian personnel is also an offense.

CBS News reports here:

The FBI has found emails related to Hillary Clinton’s tenure as secretary of state on the laptop belonging to the estranged husband of Huma Abedin, Anthony Weiner, according to a U.S. official. These emails, CBS News’ Andres Triay reports, are not duplicates of emails found on Secretary Clinton’s private server.

Bret Baier claims 2 sources in FBI say indictment likely in Clinton Crime Family Foundation pay for play scandal

Detailed here.

He mentions that Cheryl Mills' and Heather Samuelson's laptops are being plumbed. They were not destroyed after all.

As polls tighten Trump campaign has been proven right about PA but should focus on CO, NH and VA instead of MI, WI and NM

Clinton's lead in PA is down to 3.4. That would be a huge coup for Trump.

Clinton's lead in CO is down to 1.7, in NH 3.3 and in VA 4.7. Go for those.

Clinton's lead in MI is 5.7, in WI 5.4, and in NM 8.5. Pretty far out of reach with five days to go.

Trump is still very vulnerable in FL (+0.7), NC (tie), ME-2 (Clinton +0.7), OH (+3.3) and IA (+1.4), as he is in AZ and NV where he has improved to +3 and +2 respectively.

Ross Douthat pretends that Hillary Clinton does not represent chaos and misrule


Go to hell, Ross.

Wednesday, November 2, 2016

Like I said, Trump should concentrate on Virginia, not Wisconsin or Michigan: Real Clear Politics just moved Virginia to "Toss-up" this morning

Virginia now favors Clinton by only +4.7.

Michigan is now Clinton +7.

Wisconsin is Clinton +5.7.

Trump is wasting his time in Michigan and Wisconsin.

Tuesday, November 1, 2016

Trump is misspending some of his $25 million ad blitz: In Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania and New Mexico in particular

Trump needs instead to spend money to retake NV, AZ, CO and NC from Hillary where she leads narrowly and shore up IA, OH, GA and FL where Trump leads narrowly.

He's NOT going to retake WI (Clinton +5.7), Michigan (Clinton +6.7), Pennsylvania (Clinton +6), or New Mexico (Clinton +8.5).

Dumb.

Story here.

Drudge is an idiot for calling Wisconsin a battleground based on a WaPo story which is trying to divert Trump's energies

Wisconsin is a distraction. Trump isn't going to win it, and Drudge is a fool for taking the bait and headlining this WaPo story:


Trump is losing Wisconsin to Clinton at this hour by 5.7 points because of #NeverTrump libertarians who follow radio talker Charlie Sykes. That guy's never been on Trump's side and never will be. Wisconsin "conservatives" follow a ridiculous Speaker Paul Ryan who thinks preserving Medicare for future generations is a conservative thing. That's Ripon Society Republicanism, Teddy Roosevelt progressivism.

Libertarian Gary Johnson is polling 6.3 there, way above his current national average of 4.6, accounting for all of Clinton's margin of victory.

Trump shouldn't waste any more time or resources on Wisconsin.

He'd have been far better off trying for Virginia where he is polling better than in Wisconsin, but it's too late for that, too.

Trump's path to the presidency (164 Electoral College votes currently) is through NV, AZ, CO, IA, OH, NC, GA and FL (110).

He might want to visit NH and ME-2 also if he has the resources, but the main battle is in the eight states shown. 

Hillary's campaign chairman John Podesta conspiring with Cheryl Mills to destroy e-mail evidence



If Republicans had any brains they'd be pointing out that GDP is running $2 trillion behind Bush and employment 6 million

But no, they have their heads up their ass because Trump talked about grabbing pussy.

Which proves that Republicans don't care about the economy and the middle class, only about their privileges under the establishment.

Which is why they hate Trump, because he does care. 

Mark Levin waits until one week before Election 2016 to state that Donald Trump is more conservative than both John McCain and Mitt Romney on a host of issues

What a piece of shit Levin is.

At the end of the first half hour, tonight.

Trump campaign's travel schedule since 10/25/16 is hit and miss

Made/makes sense to visit:

NV (Clinton +1.0), 10-30
AZ (Clinton +0.6), 10-29, 11-2
CO (Clinton +4.0), 10-29, 10-30, 11-2
OH (Trump +2.5), 10-27
NC (Clinton +2.6), 10-26, 11-3
FL (Trump +1.0), 11-2, 11-3

No visits:

IA (Trump +1.4)
ME-2 (Clinton +2.0)
GA (Trump +3.6)

Made/makes no sense to visit:

PA (Clinton +6.0), 11-1, 11-3
MI (Clinton +6.7), 10-31
WI (Clinton +5.7), 11-1
NM (Clinton +8.5), 10-30, 11-2

Trump's path to victory is a surge in NV, AZ, CO, and NC, not MI

Trump's path to victory does not run through MI. Trump is wasting time and resources here.

With 233 Electoral College votes more or less in the bank as of today, the path to victory runs through NV, AZ, CO and NC instead.

He can overcome Hillary's +1 in NV, Hillary's +0.6 in AZ, Hillary's +4.0 in CO, and Hillary's +2.6 in NC. If he does he can win 274-264.

Trying to overcome Hillary's +6.7 in MI is a fool's errand.

Instead he ought to be trying to keep IA, where his lead is just +1.4, OH, where his lead is just +2.5, GA, where his lead is just +3.6, and FL, where his lead is just +1.0.

Whoever let Trump come to MI yesterday is a fool.

But it was probably Trump himself.


With one week until Election 2016, America is about to elect a crook, Hillary Clinton, president with 305 Electoral College votes

The Real Clear Politics map at this hour shows Clinton with 263 Electoral College votes in her column, Trump with 164, and 111 Toss-Ups.

NH, PA, VA, MI, WI, MN, NM and OR lean Clinton by an average of 6.55 points and are included in her total of 263.

IN, MO, TX and UT lean Trump by an average of 6.5 points and are included in his total of 164.

Based solely on the polling in the Toss-Ups, Clinton is set to win NV, AZ, CO, ME-2 and NC, giving her a total of 305, 35 more than the 270 she needs to win. Her average lead in the polls in these 5 is just 2.04 points.

Trump is set to win IA, OH, GA and FL, giving him a total of 233, 37 fewer than the 270 he needs to win. His average lead in the polls in these 4 is 2.13 points.

Clinton's margin nationally has fallen to +2.2 over Trump. Libertarian Johnson averages 4.6 points and Green Party Stein 2.1 points.


Bill Kristol wants Trump to take another pledge

Here.

The commenters want Bill to pledge to STFU.

Hillary is creaming Trump on the radio with 15 times as many ads in the last ten days of October

Inside Radio reports here:

In terms of actual spot numbers, that’s 18,791 for the Democratic candidate and just 1,245 ads for the Republican nominee. The study covers 85 markets across the country.

Through October 28 Hillary has outspent Trump on TV and radio 2.75 to 1

From Advertising Age's 37th installment on campaign spending to date:

But for now Sec. Clinton and pro-Clinton PACs are miles ahead of Mr. Trump and pro-Trump PACs in the TV-and-radio ad game. The tally right now (including primary season and the general election): $436.4 million spent by Clinton and her allies vs. $158.5 million spent by Trump and his allies -- $594.9 million in all.

Through mid-September Clinton had outspent Trump on television 5.85 to 1

Reported here:

According to a Bloomberg analysis, through Sept. 13, Clinton had spent $109.4 million on TV ads, compared to $18.7 million for Trump. Clinton hit the airwaves two months sooner than Trump. 

Steve Gruber was a boor to Nicole Gelinas this morning

They had an argument over Gelinas' thesis that Trump's fiscal policies are stimulative like Obama's and will dramatically widen deficits without spending cuts.

When Gruber gave her the last 20 seconds he talked over her response instead.

Bad form old boy.

Monday, October 31, 2016

Trump hasn't yet run one radio ad in my market in Michigan

I listen to talk radio pretty much non-stop during the election season, and here in western Michigan Trump actually visited today for the first time in a month but I haven't heard one ad on the radio this week for Trump, let alone one ad on the radio in any other week in the last 30 days.

He's not going to win Michigan that way. Not without the western counties that all went for Ted Cruz. By eschewing the radio waves here Trump shows me he's not serious about winning Michigan. He keeps asking for money, but never seems to spend it on the one thing which could spread the enthusiasm present at his rallies to the older Republican base.

I think Trump will lose Michigan and simply wasted his time coming here today, mistakenly continuing to practice what's been appropriate to the primary strategy when the general election requires something more.

Clinton's Real Clear Politics polling average tonight in Michigan is +6.3.

Wikileaks show CNN's Donna Brazile disclosed debate questions to Hillary, force her to resign effective October 14th

Reported here.

John Kass asks, Is the country more important to Democrats than power?


The best thing would be for Democrats to ask her to step down now. It would be the most responsible thing to do, if the nation were more important to them than power. And the American news media — fairly or not firmly identified in the public mind as Mrs. Clinton's political action committee — should begin demanding it.

Oh look, a deer: NY Times' Nicholas Kristof tries to change the subject from Hillary's scandals to poverty


OK, let's talk about it.

Poverty under Democrats Obama, Biden, Pelosi, Reid, Hillary and Boltneck is up 23%.

Now back to the nefarious reasons not to vote for Hillary.


Sunday, October 30, 2016

Weiner laptop contains 650,000 e-mails to examine, thousands of which come from or go to Hillary's private server

Hm, if the Weiner's got 'em, then a lot of people got 'em.

Reported here:

Metadata on the laptop suggests there may be thousands of emails sent to or from the private server Clinton used while she was secretary of state.

Friday, October 28, 2016

Tens of thousands of e-mails belonging to Hillary's top aide Huma Abedin found on her estranged husband's computer

Oops! That'll take a while to sort out. Expect nothing before the second Tuesday in November.

Meanwhile Hillary's more upset the discovery is interfering with her election chances than she is that it happened in the first place. With Hillary Clinton, national security is always secondary to what really matters.

The situation is not unlike 2008 when a black man just came out of nowhere and stole the nomination from her. Somebody call the cops!

Reported here:

A senior law enforcement official said that tens of thousands of emails belonging to Ms. Abedin were backed up on Mr. Weiner’s computer, which the F.B.I. had obtained as part of its investigation into Mr. Weiner. Mr. Comey said in his letter to Congress that he did not know how long it would take to review the emails. Law enforcement officials said they did not know if and how many were duplicates of emails discovered in the earlier investigation.

Flashback to 2006: Senator Hillary Clinton was upset the US didn't rig the Palestine election so that Fatah had won instead of Hamas

From the newly unearthed audio here:

Speaking to the Jewish Press about the January 25, 2006, election for the second Palestinian Legislative Council (the legislature of the Palestinian National Authority), Clinton weighed in about the result, which was a resounding victory for Hamas (74 seats) over the U.S.-preferred Fatah (45 seats).

“I do not think we should have pushed for an election in the Palestinian territories. I think that was a big mistake,” said Sen. Clinton. “And if we were going to push for an election, then we should have made sure that we did something to determine who was going to win.”

Lock her up: FBI unexpectedly reopens investigation into Hillary Clinton e-mails

I wonder who at the FBI threatened to out Comey unless he did this?


Obama's Attorney General Loretta Lynch refuses to answer Congress' written questions about cash payments to Iran

Reported here.

Rod Dreher, popularizer of ideas, accuses Claes Ryn, a bona fide intellectual, of misunderstanding him, and declines to elaborate

Good move, Rod. Run, retreat. Benedict Option!


"I started to undertake a point by point refutation of Ryn’s specious claims, but then realized that it would be pointless."

Today's advance estimate of GDP for 3Q2016 at 2.9% actually looks pessimistic

The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve in June reduced their forecast of 2016 GDP from 2.1-2.3% in March to 1.9-2.0%.

Today's estimate means the average report of GDP in 2016 is now 1.7%.

It'll take a lot more than today's 2.9% to get us up to 2.0% for the year.

Virginal hooker in bondage: Who dresses this woman, Megyn Kelly?

Thursday, October 27, 2016

Boston Globe says Trump travels twice the distance Clinton travels, takes fewer days off, but Hillary criticizes Trump for taking time off to dedicate his new hotel


He’s racked up more than 276,000 miles since he officially announced he was running for president on June 16, 2015. She’s tallied 256,000-plus miles since April 12, 2015, when she formally announced her candidacy.

In recent weeks, Trump has traveled considerably more miles — about double the distance Clinton has logged.

Trump has also taken fewer days off from traveling, according to the National Journal data. He’s traveled on just over half the days since he announced he was running. She’s traveled on about 39 percent of days since throwing her hat in the ring.

Wednesday, October 26, 2016

Claes Ryn shoots one across Rod Dreher's bow


He comes as close as a Catholic can to recommending that conservatives stand and fight.

Meanwhile a certain Presbyterian has been hard at it already since June 2015.

His name is Donald John Trump.

Catholics are late to the party, again.

Tuesday, October 25, 2016

Hey Bernie: "Disgraced" in the summer, former DNC chair Washerwoman Schultz flies on Air Force One with Obama in October


Rod Dreher wrote a book about Dante but can't seem to place the liar Hillary in any circle of hell

E-mail from Hillary's Chief of Staff Cheryl Mills to John Podesta shows conspiracy to cover up evidence of Obama's knowledge of Hillary's private server

. . . apart from showing that Obama brazenly lied to the public when he said he knew nothing about Hillary's private server arrangement.

Here: "Obama has emails from Hillary which do not say state.gov".



Rush Limbaugh's memory of 1980 is terrible

He just said the unemployment rate in 1980 was in the double digits, but it wasn't.

In 1980 the unemployment rate averaged 7.2%. In July it peaked at 7.8%.

That hurt a lot because it had been as low as 5.6% in 1979. 

Two weeks to Election 2016 Real Clear Politics polling averages have Clinton beating Trump 333-205 in the Electoral College

With two weeks to go to Election 2016 the Real Clear Politics polling averages have Clinton beating Trump 333-205 in the Electoral College matchup. Hillary has regained momentum in the polling in the last week, up from winning 321-217 last week.

The basic map has Clinton at 272 this morning, already winning, and Trump at 126, with 140 EC votes as toss-ups.

Based on the polling advantages this morning in the toss-ups, Clinton wins NV, AZ, NC and FL with an average lead of 2.95 points, bringing her to 333 EC votes.

Trump wins TX, IA, OH, ME-2 and GA with an average lead of 3.66 points, bringing him to 205 EC votes.

Hillary has 10 states which only lean in her direction. In 9 of these her average lead is 7.3 points (there is no average shown for CT). These are already counted in her 272 EC total this morning. Trump has 4 states only leaning in his direction. His average lead in these is 6.2 points. These are already counted in his total of 126.

Libertarian Gary Johnson continues to poll at 6.0 on average, more than off-setting Clinton's 5.4 lead over Trump (39.9) in a four-way match up including Stein (2.2). But only in CO, NM, MN and NH do Johnson's averages total in excess of Clinton's leads this week. Clinton clearly has made small gains in her own right in OR, WI, MI, PA and VA as voters come to realize this election is binary. Rasmussen and IBD show Clinton only at +1, however, in the four-way match up nationally. 

In a two-way match up IBD also shows Clinton +1, as does the LA Times. Gravis has Clinton and Trump tied in one of the few polls of registered voters, 74% of which vote on average since 1972.


Monday, October 24, 2016

Consider the source


Rod Dreher blames the Republican rank and file who voted for Trump for the coming "mess"

Reminds me of Rush Limbaugh blaming the so-called four million Republicans who stayed home in 2012 for Romney's loss.

Yeah, like it's all of a sudden a government of the people, by the people and for the people when we lose, but the rubes never get the credit when we win.

Meanwhile the guys with the microphones and the high profile blogs get off scot-free.


"[T]he bitterness and spite among Republican regulars is going to blind them to their own role in creating this mess."