Thursday, February 13, 2025

Thirteen paragraphs in we learn that last month's wholesale price headline was, well, total fiction

Which means that this headline is what then?

Producer prices report points to softer Fed inflation measure than feared:

A gauge of wholesale prices rose more than expected in January ... Over the past year, the all-items PPI increased 3.5%, well ahead of the central bank’s objective. ...

“Wholesale price growth came in slightly higher than expected for January, and the read for December was adjusted upward,” said Elizabeth Renter, senior economist at personal finance site NerdWallet. “In other words, inflation at the producer level remains high, and one concern is that this inflation could ultimately be passed along to consumers.”

Revisions to the December numbers also complicated the inflation picture, with the gain now put at 0.5%, compared with the 0.2% increase previously reported.

Last month's headline: Inflation watch: Wholesale prices rose 0.2% in December, less than expected.

As usual, the truth is under the hood of the polished headline, or maybe next month's polished headline.

 

Nothing looks soft to me in the measures shown below, which are the not-seasonally-adjusted ones.

Overall producer prices are up  0.7% in Jan 2025, and 3.5% year over year. Core producer prices are up 0.5% in Jan 2025, and 3.6% year over year. At least until next month.