Deaths per day in the first ten days of October have slowed to 733. Extrapolated through the end of the year from Sep 30 that would result in ~272,822 total deaths by 12/31/20:
Mar 138
Apr 1,961
May 1,330
Jun 769
Jul 851
Aug 955
Sep 779
Oct 733 (thru 10/10).
The compound daily growth rate for deaths has ticked down for two months, but for a hiccup just before the official end of summer, to a new low level which may, however, be bottoming (click on images to expand):
Hospitalizations for COVID-19 hit a low at the official end of summer, but are on the rise again to levels comparable to the end of June when this data started to be reported. Keep in mind, however, that Florida did not begin reporting current hospitalizations until 7/11, when it had almost 7k, so the June data in this chart for 47 states is probably underreported by close to that, meaning current levels, though rising from recent lows, remain below June:
California, which may be considered a proxy for the whole nation, continues to report high infection numbers among the young but low deaths. 71% of cases have been aged 0-49, but only 7% of deaths are 0-49. The troubling middle: 19% of cases to date there are 50-64, but also 19% of deaths are that age.
The civilian noninstitutional population 50 or older in the United States in Sep 2020 numbers 117.4 million. Those aged 16-49 number 143.3 million.
This has become a protracted conflict and looks to remain so, pitting those who experience only 7% of the deaths against those who experience 93%. The war seems to express itself mostly over Addition (of the facemask), as opposed to Prohibition (of alcohol) from a century ago.
