Wednesday, March 16, 2016

Told you so: Trump needs only to maintain his current level of support to win, not increase it

The New York Times, here:

If Mr. Trump maintains his current level of support in the remaining races, he would almost certainly secure the nomination.

With delegate allocation still incomplete at Real Clear Politics after yesterday's primaries, Donald Trump needs to garner less than 53% of the remaining delegates to win, a level consistent with his actual performance at the beginning of March (see here).

Trump has consistently needed between 50% and 54% of outstanding delegates to win throughout the period to date since February contests ended.

With his wins yesterday the percentage needed is moving back toward 50%, indicating his momentum is increasing.

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