Monday, October 3, 2022
US COVID-19 Big Picture Through 9/30/22
Deaths per day through September 2022 are down from 896 through August to 846 through September.
Cases per day through September 2022 are down from 163,178 through August to 151,878 through September.
Drilling down, there were 441 deaths per day in September vs. 511 deaths per day in August. May, June, and July figures were all in the 300s.
Cases really fell off. There were 3.222 million new cases in August vs. 1.810 million in September, portending fewer deaths going forward.
The CDC ranked COVID-19 the 3rd leading cause of death in 2020:
~1,909 people per day died of heart disease in 2020;
~1,650 died of cancer everyday in 2020;
~1,146 died of COVID-19 everyday in 2020 measured from Feb 29 when the first death was announced.
The New York Times data I use shows about 4,742 fewer total deaths in 2020 than the CDC does.
But any which way you measure it, even over 365 days in 2020, 2021 deaths per day were much higher than in 2020 and deaths per day now in 2022 at 846 to date are much lower than in either of the previous two years.
Sunday, October 2, 2022
The traditional 60/40 portfolio is down 20.77% ytd
VTSAX is down 24.89% through 9/30.
VBTLX is down 14.59% through 9/30.
And don't forget to subtract all-items inflation of 6.14% from Nov 2021 through Aug 2022!
Headlines are popping up advocating safe havens in cash and short-duration US Treasury securities, but you'll still lose in those relative to inflation, just not as much.
What a great job the Democrats have done this year! Destroying the bond market wasn't on my bingo card for 2022, even though the high and rising prices for bonds has been a deal-breaker for me for a long time.
The Democrats' green war on energy has consequences.
Is real war next?
Saturday, October 1, 2022
Friday, September 30, 2022
Spiking interest payments on the national debt through 2Q2022 threaten to crowd out other current spending on Social Security, Medicare, and National Defense
Wait until the second half is done.
This is going to be ugly.
The long-term gains from a higher savings rate will trounce the gains from earning higher returns
Charlie Bilello, here.
But I have problems:
If a household saved 1% of their disposable income per year and earned a 10% rate of return, they would have a balance of $99,272 after 30 years.
Alternatively, if they saved 10% of their disposable per year and earned only a 1% rate of return, they would have a balance of $209,927 after 30 years.
That’s a 111% higher ending balance for the 10% savers as compared to the 1% savers even though their annualized investment returns were 9% lower.
He doesn't mean the "returns were 9% lower" since he's already stated the returns were 111% higher. He means the return RATES were 9% lower. But that's not true. The difference between a 1% return rate and a 10% return rate is not 9%.
It's 90%.
He does it again here, twice:
For instance, if a household only saved 1% per year and earned a 5% return, after 30 years they would have $40,096. Earning a 6% return would bump that up to $47,712, a 19% increase.
By comparison, if their returns stayed at 5% but they were able to save 1% more per year (2% savings rate), they would be left with $80,192 after 30 years. That’s a 100% increase in the ending balance through saving 1% more versus a 19% increase from earning a 1% higher return.
But the difference between saving at 1% vs. 2% is not "to save 1% more" nor "saving 1% more".
It's saving 100% more.
Aka double.
Furthermore, the difference between returns paying 6% and 5% is not "earning a 1% higher return".
6% is a 20% higher rate of return than 5%.
He means 1 point of return.
This sort of confusion runs rampant in America, even with a guy who clearly knows how to do percentages and has a very consequential story to tell, and it has to do with imprecision of language. Increasing by one percentage point from 1 to 2 is an increase of 100%. Increasing a percentage by 9 points from 1 to 10 is an increase of 90%.
It shouldn't be surprising that increasing savings RATES by 90% and 100% produces returns in the end which are also of the same magnitude higher, but for some reason it is.
The precision of the math he presents is extremely important, but the language isn't precise at all.
@charliebillelo has 475k followers on Twitter, lol.
A society which loses such precision is a confused society, and it's showing up in everything, everywhere.
Thursday, September 29, 2022
First it was the US Army actually recruiting a Chinese spy, now its first trans officer is a spy for the Russians but the CNBC story won't mention the trans part or show the picture
You can't make this shit up.
CNBC has updated the story:
Henry in 2015 was reported to be the first known active-duty Army officer to come out as transgender.
Thanks Obama!
Thanks Joe!
The update is still riddled with typos and even an incomplete sentence, but they've made sure to get the major's personal pronouns right.
The major is a real piece of work.
It's all in the eyes.
Wednesday, September 28, 2022
Housing in America in 2021 has never been more unaffordable
Median household income in 2021 bought just 17.8% of the median sales price of houses sold.
Every damn time: The Army Times won't show the picture of the US Army reservist found guilty of spying for China, you have to go to the South China Morning Post for that
Ex-Army reservist convicted of acting as Beijing agent...
The most important thing to the Army Times obviously is to hide the man's identity, because you know, racism.
Nevermind the lunacy of recruiting foreigners to serve in the US military.
This country is so screwed it's almost indescribable.
Tuesday, September 27, 2022
The Great Long Term Investment Grade Bond Debacle of 2022
Safe havens aren't supposed to do this.
Long term return for VWESX since inception in 1973 near the end of 2018 reached north of 8%.
In 2022 ytd return is -27.28%.
The whole spectrum of bonds as represented by VBTLX is down ytd 14.79%.
Traditional investors with a 60/40 portfolio are down over 20% through yesterday because stocks and bonds both are falling.
Cash is king again.
LOL, Democrat Larry Summers is EXTREMELY ALARMED by the reappearance of Reagan-like TAX CUTS in the UK
Larry knows danger when he sees it.
Larry is all Trussed up and ready for action!
Monday, September 26, 2022
Fetterman's giant self-own: I have nine dates tattooed on my right forearm, each one a day on which someone died violently while I was mayor
Didn't do a very good job as mayor then, did ya fella?
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