Thursday, April 8, 2021
Ice-Out for The Nenana Ice Classic is going to be delayed, but it's too late to buy your ticket anyway
All-time April low could fall in Alaskan city :
"A cold snap this extreme in April hasn’t been experienced in the Fairbanks area since 1911, when three consecutive record lows were set from April 9-11," Duff said. Two of these record lows are likely to be challenged during the latest cold wave, including Thursday night’s record of minus 16 F and Friday night’s record of minus 32 F.
Hey! Where's the rope on that thing?
Earliest Ice-Out ever since 1917 was April 14 (2019).
Wednesday, April 7, 2021
Meanwhile my basic thesis is that this C19 epidemic continues to spread because 62% of men and 40% of women don't wash after using the loo
The data come from the largest study ever done on hand-washing years ago. You will find similar results in other smaller studies.
So that's roughly 51% of the population walking around NOT doing the most basic thing they should be doing under normal circumstances.
That agrees remarkably well with the Nature study on mask-wearing, which found that there is only 49% compliance.
Modeling COVID-19 scenarios for the United States:
"the national average for self-reported mask wearing was 49% as of 21 September 2020"
I'm assuming it's much less than 49% however, because this data is from self-reporting, not observation.
Be that as it may, the main point is that with nearly half of a given population failing on basic hygiene, it's ridiculous to assume that those same people during a pandemic are going to comply with the litany of things which need to be done to stop the spread of the disease.
You can't get them to wash their hands after using the loo, let alone wear a mask, wear a mask properly, social distance, quarantine themselves when exposed, quarantine themselves when sick, and on and on.
Results have indeed varied from state to state.
Michigan is a great example. We locked down hard at the beginning, closed everything, wore masks, yada yada yada, and suppressed the epidemic quite well until we couldn't stand it anymore. It caught up with us anyway.
And now the UK variant is giving it to us good and hard this spring.
People gonna people. Virus gonna virus.
Michigan's graph of new confirmed cases for the whole history of the C19 epidemic shows it is a seasonal phenomenon
Michigan's reaction to the initial outbreak was a freakout, a lockdown which suppressed the outbreak.
As the epidemic has evolved, however, along with the response, it is clear that a spring, fall, spring pattern has developed.
The fall outbreak subsided on its own, before the introduction of the mass vaccination effort.
And cases since then are rising dramatically now, despite the vaccines.
The hospitalization graph shows the same thing.
Monday, April 5, 2021
Sunday, April 4, 2021
The Chinese coronavirus vaccine CoronaVac by Sinovac doesn't appear to be worth very much: Chile as case study
Chile at 20.1% is now Number Two in the world for fully vaccinating its population against COVID-19. (1)
Chile overwhelmingly uses the Chinese Sinovac vaccine. (2)
The vaccination effort began from Feb 2, and by Feb 23 16% of the population had received one dose. (3)
Yet cases began to soar Feb 23, at which time 0.3% of the population was fully vaccinated. (4)
Deaths commenced their recent steep ascent beginning Mar 27 (5), about one month after cases began to soar, at which time 17.1% of the population was fully vaccinated (7) and 33.5% of the population partially vaccinated. (3)
Daily new cases per million on Apr 2 is breaking records in Chile. (6)
The point of vaccines is to prevent serious illness and death. The recent uptick in deaths after the uptick in cases despite the vaccines is very troubling.
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Friday, April 2, 2021
Democrat Congressman Emanuel "Amen and Awoman" Cleaver of Missouri says just raise the gasoline tax, no one knows what it is anyways
That's the Democrat strategy on taxes from time immemorial in a nutshell. Multiply taxes and imbed them in everything so that there's so many of them you can't even list them all or realize that they've gone up.
The federal gasoline tax of $0.184 per gallon, however, is a universal tax, unlike state gasoline taxes which vary, obviously, and is displayed at every fuel station. It hasn't been raised since 1993. The tax started out at a penny in 1932.
There is no excuse for not knowing what it is.
And there's no excuse for complaining the current tax doesn't take into account inflation since 1993. The inflation-adjusted tax from 1932 in 2019 is $0.19, so the current tax is just about on the money.
One problem with a fuel tax is that it is regressive, occupying a much larger place in the finances of hourly workers than it does in higher paid salaried workers. It's not fair.
Another is that since the early 1980s the fuel tax has been split between roads and "transit", as if the family vacation on the interstate system should fund the trains for the well-heeled commuters of America's metros.
Still another is . . . if deficits no longer matter, as is self-evident from the orgy of COVID relief spending, then why do taxes still matter?
They don't.
I say abolish the federal gas tax altogether.
Case positivity rates for COVID-19 are out of control in and around Detroit and Grand Rapids to kick off April 2021
WHO indicates epidemics are out of control when case positivity rates rise above 10%.
Michigan has fully vaccinated 20.8% of its population.
Thursday, April 1, 2021
Tuesday, March 30, 2021
COVID-19 vaccines and Bell's Palsy: Nothing to see here . . . so far
Normal rates of Bell's Palsy in the world range between 100-400 cases per million of population (1-4 per 10,000 / 10-40 per 100,000).
Hong Kong has been abuzz over some cases of Bell's Palsy after Sinovac injections. So far there have been 11 cases from 278,200 vaccinations with Sinovac, which is the equivalent of 40 cases per million of population. But the normal HKG rate is reportedly 230 cases/million.
Similarly in the UK recently the Pfizer vaccine was reportedly responsible for 9.8 cases per million vaccinations, again far lower than the minimum threshold of 100 cases/million.
VAERS data for the US so far shows 81 cases of Bell's Palsy and 420 cases of facial paralysis, for all types of COVID-19 vaccine. Given the vaccination totals in the US so far, you'd have to have 9,500 such cases reported to date just to match the minimum normal rate of 100 cases/million. The US typically has 40,000 cases a year anyway, which is a rate of 122/million assuming population of 328 million.
So . . . nothing unusual is going on anywhere as far as I can tell.
VAERS is rumored to be overwhelmed by a reporting backlog, and there is a relatively small discrepancy between CDC statements of deaths and VAERS data from week to week, but I can't imagine how there would be tens of thousands of Bell's Palsy cases unaccounted for in the reports, which, it must be remembered, can be filed by anyone.
If there were that many they'd be all over the tabloids by now, accusing the government of injury.
Given that the official cause of Bell's Palsy is still debated, it's not implausible that the stress associated with the pandemic in combination with vaccination has been a trigger for cases, just as for other reported adverse effects. People faint, shit their pants, any number of things after they get a jab. Stress is also a trigger for death in some instances.
Most cases of BP resolve, but it is important for sufferers to seek immediate medical attention and get treated with a steroid like Prednisone, which seems to speed recovery from the inflammation affecting the nerve in the face involved in the condition.
Monday, March 29, 2021
Why haven't COVID-19 hospitalizations in the US fallen to the 2020 lows if things are going so great because of vaccinations?
In the University of Minnesota data, here's where we've been so far in March 2021:
3/01: 49,471
3/09: 38,651
3/15: 35,611
3/16: 32,009
3/22: 34,522
3/29: 35,980.
The lows in 2020 coincided with the seasonal changes. We were at about 25k hospitalized both in June and September 2020 at the approach of astronomical summer and fall, respectively. We are at about 10k higher than that with the advent of spring 2021.
Cases in North America, South America, and Europe are troublingly on the rise.
Saturday, March 27, 2021
LOL, Mittens joins Republican squishes Bush 41, Gerald Ford and John McCain in receiving the JFK "Profile in Courage" award
Mitt Romney voted to impeach Trump.
Bush 41 raised taxes after promising not to ("Read my lips").
Gerald Ford pardoned Nixon.
John McCain sponsored campaign finance reform legislation in 2002, which was partially overturned in Citizens United in 2010.
Romney's award is for Trump's first impeachment, not the second, for which Romney also voted, but I guess the six Republicans who joined Romney the second time are just chopped liver. That took took no courage whatsoever, apparently.
Wednesday, March 24, 2021
Since the beginning of the year the CDC has been propagating false science, publicly claiming that COVID vaccines protect people previously infected when there's no evidence of that
"Rep. Massie: And instead of fixing it, they proposed repeating it and just phrasing their mistake differently. So, at that point, right now I consider it a lie. I think the CDC is lying about the efficacy of the vaccine based on the Pfizer trials, for those who have already had the Coronavirus."
Massie continues to tweet his frustration as recently as Mar 20.
Tuesday, March 23, 2021
Nigeria, Kenya and Angola, all of which have widely used ivermectin for years against parasitical disease, all have enviable COVID records compared with their similarly sized counterparts Brazil, Spain and Peru
The constant drumbeat in the US is how coronavirus hurts people of color proportionally more than it does whites, when these African countries which widely prescribe ivermectin have done astoundingly better than their counterpart countries by population in the West, as shown in these case graphs. And Nigeria has the added disadvantage of the three comparisons of being far more densely populated than Brazil but Brazil is 2nd worst in the world for COVID deaths.
Deaths
Brazil v Nigeria: 295k v 2k
Spain v Kenya: 74k v 2k
Peru v Angola: 50k v 0.5k
Real Clear Politics article floats open borders lunatic Mick Mulvaney for new Heritage Foundation president
Somebody put a fork in it already.
Monday, March 22, 2021
COVID hospitalizations in the US may have stopped falling
In the University of Minnesota data, here's where we've been so far in March:
3/01: 49,471
3/09: 38,651
3/15: 35,611
3/16: 32,009
3/22: 34,522.
Friday, March 19, 2021
VAERS update for reactions to the Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine, as reported through March 12, 2021
VAERS update for reactions to the Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine as reported through March 12, 2021
Blindness/1 of 3 categories only: 24
Blurry vision: 175
Chest pain: 516
Chest discomfort: 627
Cardiac arrest: 88
Deafness/1 of 5 categories only: 38
Tinnitus/ringing, buzzing in the ear: 142
Diarrhoea: 802
Thrombosis/stroke: 52
Spontaneous abortion: 42
Facial paralysis: 262
Death: 633
Unable to breath enough/dyspnoea: 1395
Muscle pain/myalgia: 1548
Sense losses: touch/hypoaesthesia (878), smell/anosmia (163), taste/ageusia (174)
Swelling: lymphatic/lymphadenopathy (579), lips (231), throat/pharyngeal (210), face (289), tongue (235), peripheral (322)
Severe itching/pruritus: 1106
Rash: 1099
Hives/urticaria: 774
Tingling sensations/paraesthesia: 1149
Oral tingling/paraesthesia: 520
Joint pain/arthralgia: 1203
Pain in extremities: 1803
Tightness of throat: 387
Anaphylactic reaction: 181
Fever/pyrexia: 3052
Headache: 4467
Well, I found one guy with the temerity to point out what a phony baloney plastic banana good time rock n rolla Rush Limbaugh was on immigration
From a good thread discussing possible replacements for Rush Limbaugh.
Commenters get it that playing reruns hosted by loyalists ain't gonna cut it.
Cumulus Media's Westwood One is challenging the time slot of Rush Limbaugh with Dan Bongino.
That should force EIB's hand to up their game.
Meanwhile under George W. Bush, Rush Limbaugh licked his finger, checked the wind, and said what he said. Which was Rush's typical behavior. As Rush told 60 Minutes, he was there to see how much money he could make advertisers pay to be on his show. That meant keeping and growing a Republican audience. Rush was never about principle. He was just about convincing you that he was in order to keep you listening.
Tuesday, March 16, 2021
Monday, March 15, 2021
COVID-19 hospitalizations fell only about 3,000 in the last six days in the University of Minnesota Carlson School data
I'm looking for more like 25,000 total hospitalized before I feel better about this, which was their count last September at the lows before the second wave hit and which crested over the Christmas/New Year period. The equivalent level at The Atlantic at the time was about 29,000.
And how come New York Governor Andrew Cuomo isn't taking heat over being in first place? Again. Huh? Huh? Huh?
Trend for Tanana River Ice-Outs 1917-2020 continues to show them occurring much earlier after 104 years
This is a corrected chart and supersedes all previous iterations. Data in the chart has been double-checked again against printed versions of the data available from the Nenana Ice Classic. One or two dates were incorrectly shown in previous versions of my chart through 2018.
The overall trend earlier in those charts remains unchanged, however, and has been reinforced by the record-setting early Ice-Out in 2019 on April 14. This is because of the preponderance of relatively earlier Ice-Outs April 30 through May 7, of which there are forty-five. With or without the record early Ice-Out on April 14, 2019 and the relatively early 2020 Ice-Out on April 27, the median date remains the same: May 4. Half the Ice-Outs occur before that date, half after.
Otherwise from April 14-29 there are 27 early Ice-Outs vs. May 8-20 with 32 late Ice-Outs:
April 14-21: 3
April 22-29: 24
April 30-May 7: 45
May 8-15: 29
May 16-20: 3.
Is "global warming" at work?
If you back out all data from the year 2000 onward, here's what you get:
April 14-21: 2
April 22-29: 14
April 30-May 7: 37
May 8-15: 28
May 16-20: 2.
Median date: May 5.
Obviously the biggest impact since 1999 has been on the week April 22-29, adding ten early Ice-Outs, moving the median date earlier by one day after 20 years.
Another thing it does, however, is balance out the data surrounding April 30-May 7, which otherwise was weighted heavier later, with far more Ice-Outs in the second week of May than the last week of April. It could be that over the long course of history prior to 1917 we're missing a lot of early Ice-Outs which recent warming has only now supplied.
For example, we know early 20th century temperatures were warm enough for Roald Amundsen famously to make it through the Northwest Passage from east to west in his small wooden herring ship between 1903-1906. He finally traversed the western half of the Canadian island archipelago during 1905 after being ice bound in the heart of it for two winters. In August 1905 he put in at Herschel Island 5 miles off the north coast of Canada due to ice. From there he skied 500 miles south to Eagle, Alaska, in order to send a message by telegraph wire of the news of his singular achievement. The wire was sent on December 5, 1905. Amundsen spent two months in Eagle before skiing back to his ship and sailing on to Nome in 1906, where his ship then remained until 1972.
Eagle, AK, incidentally, is about 200 miles due east of the Fairbanks Area, which includes Nenana. The mean average temperature for the Fairbanks Area since 1999 is 28.6 vs. 26.3 1904-1999.
The data for Ice-Outs since 1999 is what it is, evidence of warming.
Sunday, March 14, 2021
Saturday, March 13, 2021
Coronavirus cases have been in headlong retreat in the UK and USA since peaking in early January, weeks before vaccination levels became comparable to present day European levels where cases continue to rise
Besides that, new cases also fell dramatically from early January in both Europe and South America before ticking up again after February 15th. Both regions were then and still remain far behind vaccination levels in the UK and USA. There must be some other explanation apart from vaccines why cases fell so precipitously.
Damned if I know what it is, save for "seasonality". But it sure as hell ain't vaccines. The US hit the lackluster present day European vaccination levels in the first week of February, and the UK did the same a week earlier, yet daily new confirmed cases were already in free-fall in both.
As vaccinations had nothing to do with the drop in cases in the US, UK, Europe and South America in January, it is likewise doubtful their relative paucity in Europe and South America now has anything to do with the uptick in cases since Feb 15.
Psychiatry is such a joke when it's the patient who determines the diagnosis of major depression
Imagine your dentist doing that for a cavity.
Dentist: "Do you feel a hole in your tooth with your tongue?"
Patient: "Yes".
Dentist: "How large is it?"
Patient: "Feels really big".
Dentist: "Well, I'm afraid that one's got to come out".
For the study, published in JAMA Network Open, the team looked data from eight waves of surveys conducted between June 2020 and January 2021.
Respondents were narrowed down to 3,904 individuals who said they had been infected with COVID-19 in the past but had since recovered.
They were asked to rank how severe their illness was and if they had any persistent symptoms since testing negative.
All of the participants filled out the Patient Health Questionnaire–9 (PHQ-9), which is a diagnostic instrument used to diagnose mood disorders such as depression.
Patients are asked about their mood or behavior over the last two weeks including whether they've had 'little interest or pleasure in doing things' or have been 'feeling down, depressed, or hopeless.'
Those filling out the survey can choose one of the following 'not at all,' 'several days,' 'more than half the days,' or 'nearly every day,' which are scored from zero to three.
On a scale of zero to 27, people who scored 10 or greater are considered to be moderately or severely depressed.
Of the participants, 2,046, or 52.4 percent, scored high enough to be considered to have symptoms of major depression.
Friday, March 12, 2021
Climate Update for KGRR: February 2021
Climate Update for KGRR: February 2021
Max T 48, Mean 50
Min T -12, Mean -2
Av T 20.8, Mean 24.5
Precip 1.84, Mean 1.79
Snow 30.6, Mean 13.3
Heating Degree Days 1231, Mean 1136
HDD to date 4644, Mean to date 4890, season to date 5% below mean
Mean annual HDD 6702, Max was 7712 in 1904 (15.1% above mean, coldest ever), Min was 5253 in 2012 (21.6% below mean, warmest ever)
Feb 2021 was the 30th coldest Feb on record in Grand Rapids, MI, bringing the year to date down to 5% warmer than normal from 9% last month.
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