Cesium 134 has made it to within 100 miles of Eureka, California

Reported here:

The group found traces of cesium-134, a radioactive element released by the [Fukushima] power plant [in 2011], 100 miles off the coast of Eureka, California. The amount of radioactive chemicals in the water is still below levels that are harmful to humans and is 1,000 times below limits set by the Environmental Protection Agency for drinking water. Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution predicts contaminant levels could increase over the next two to three years.

--------------------------------------------

Expect hysterical warnings from the nothinkums.

Bloomberg puts 6 million aged 25-54 still missing in employment action

Here:

So far, the faster pace of job creation hasn't coaxed enough people back into the labor force. As of October, the seasonally unadjusted participation rate for people age 25 to 54 stood at 81.1 percent, up 0.3 percentage point from a year earlier but about 6 million people below the 10-year pre-recession average of 83.5 percent.

Every Democrat who didn't vote last Tuesday . . .

. . . voted Republican.

Democrats lost last week simply because voters tired of waiting for full-time jobs to recover

Examine the record here of full-time job losses in recessions since 1969 and you will see that full-time jobs recovered to their previous peaks in 2 years after 1969, 2 years after 1974, about 3 years after 1981, 3 years after 1990 and about 3 years after 2000.

But after 2007? Full-time jobs have yet to recover, over 7 years since peaking in July 2007 at 123.2 million.

It's true that total nonfarm employment recovered to the November 2007 high this June, after 6.5 long years, but full-time is still 3 million below the 2007 peak.

The voting public has been very patient with President Obama and the Democrats. They know this was the biggest jobs debacle in the post-war. From peak to trough between July 2007 and January 2010 14.442 million full-time jobs were lost, beating the 8.1 million lost from 1981 under Reagan by a wide margin, a 9.3% loss. The percentage lost from the peak was also highest in the post-war, down 11.7% in the recent catastrophe vs. the 9.6% loss of full-time jobs from August 1974, the previous most recent top episode for full-time job destruction in percentage terms.

So it's understandable that voters might have re-elected Obama and the Democrat Senate in 2012 on the presumption that such a serious episode would take longer to fix. But even so it was still a relatively close election.

Last Tuesday's nationwide blow-out of Democrats, however, from the US Senate on down through the US House, governorships and state legislative chambers shows that the patience of the country has run out. While full-time jobs have roared back in the last 12 months it is likely that the trend has peaked for the year and that it will be next summer before we see full-time recover fully.

That will be 8 years . . . 5 years too many for many of the millions who lost their jobs to put their lives back together and rejoin the middle class. Five years too many for those who lived in the 5+million homes lost to foreclosure. For them there remains the hope only of minimum and low wage work, food stamps, government disability assistance, Medicaid, Social Security and Medicare and early death.

Obama will be remembered for attempting this hollowing out of the middle class, and some will correctly conclude it was intentional on the part of the country's first Bolshevik president.

"[T]he mass of middle class parasites which lived on the back of the old order is now, equally ready to live on the back of the proletarian State."   

WaPo claims to be scared Congress has more Tea Party radicals now, but P.J. O'Rourke knows better

And who better to really know than a fellow-traveling Tea Party libertarian?

Here:

[Scott] Brown lost the Senate race to Democrat incumbent Jean Shaheen because Scott once posed nude for Cosmo. “Naked male Republican” is not a thought anyone, Republicans included, wants in his or her mind, even if this particular one happens to be buff.

Most of the Republicans America just elected ain’t. And I’m glad of it. We’re seeing more of the old-fashioned establishment-type Republicans who keep their pants and pantyhose on. And who don’t get them in a wad over every little piece of legislation.

The 114th Congress is not going to be full of people who, every time a bill is brought to a vote, have to go dig up the grave of James Madison and ask Jim if the bill is Constitutional. ...

Never mind that young people, women, Hispanics, and blacks forgot to vote. In two years those young people will have done a lot of growing up. What happens when you’re a grown-up? You vote for someone named Bush. Women will probably forget to vote again. You know how forgetful women are. “Did I lose an earring?” “Where’s my purse?” “I could have sworn I left the car keys right here.” And Republican policies for robust job growth and business opportunity will have moved Hispanics and blacks to the top of the socio-economic ladder. Once you get an in-ground pool, you’re a good Republican.

Anyway, this good Republican can dream, can’t he?

------------------------------------------------------

Ted Cruz and Justin Amash, call your offices.

Suggested opener for Obama's State of the Union Address

"My fellow Americans, the State of the Union tonight is fairly Republican."

Time for Obama to sit in the back after driving the bus into the ditch

The Gay Mafia funds so-called conservatives: Club for Growth, Sen. Ted Cruz and Rep. Justin Amash just love pot-smoking queer billionaire Peter Thiel's money

And if you think there's no payback expected for that then I've got a bridge to sell you.

Reported here:

Peter Thiel is a pot-smoking gay man, which makes him the kind of person Cruz supporters would like to launch into some sort of Martian exile. But Thiel is also, crucially, a massively rich bussinessman [sic], which is enough for Cruz to shelve his Tea Party druthers and accept hundreds of thousands of dollars from the Silicon Valley luminary. Adjacent bigots have yelled at Cruz for pocketing Thiel's cash, but he has every reason to ignore them: last year, Thiel gave $2 million to Club for Growth, a SuperPAC that in turn poured over $600,000 into Cruz's (successful) senatorial run. Club for Growth is still a vocal supporter of Cruz as he's flailed and railed against Obamacare.

It wasn't a Republican wave, it wasn't a thumping, IT WAS A DELUGE

Republicans didn't just sweep the House, the Senate and governorships on Tuesday, they took enough legislative chambers to set records that go back to before the Civil War. They took 65% of open state legislative seats. Now if they only had a leader. 

Reuters reports here:

[The Republican Party] gained control of 10 chambers and could be on track to holding the largest number of legislative seats since before the Great Depression. ... With Tuesday's vote, Republicans took over the U.S. Senate, beefed up their majority in the U.S. House and won the governor's office in several key states. The vote also increased the number of state legislative chambers with Republican majorities to 67 from 57. Party control of the Colorado House and Washington House was still up in the air. The number of states with Republicans in control of both legislative chambers came to 27 ahead of the election and has now edged closer to the high mark of 30 in 1920 . . .. By contrast, Democrats will control the lowest number of state legislatures since 1860 . . .. Republican State Leadership Committee President Matt Walter said the party appeared to be on track to eclipse 1928's record high of 4,001 Republican state legislative seats. ... Voters on Tuesday were deciding 6,049 legislative races in 46 states, or nearly 82 percent of all state legislative seats.

Intermediate term bonds beat the S&P500 over the last fifteen years

The average nominal return from the S&P500 from September 1999 through September 2014 is 4.71% per year with dividends fully reinvested.

The nominal annual return from the intermediate term bond index fund VBIIX for the fifteen years to 11/7/14 is 6.37%.  

Food stamp recipient total falls only slightly in August 2014

Food stamps were taken by 46,484,828 people residing in America in August 2014, down from 46,486,888 in July.

The level is 2.5% lower than in August 2013.

The total benefit in August 2014 was $5.766 billion. The total costs in 2013 came to $79.9 billion.

The average total benefit was $124.04 per person in the program in August 2014, down from $133.07 per person monthly in 2013, and $253.69 per household on average in August 2014. 

Temperature anomaly for Grand Rapids, Michigan, through October 2014 rises to -27.2 degrees F

The cumulative 2014 temperature anomaly for Grand Rapids, Michigan, through October comes to -27.2 degrees F. That's the sum total of degrees below normal temperature for the year 2014 so far. Divided by ten that comes to an average anomaly of 2.72 degrees F monthly, falling from an average anomaly of 3.00 degrees F monthly through September.

In October temperatures were nearly normal, off just 0.2 degrees F, after a below normal September off 0.7 degrees F.

The S&P500 ends the week just 0.7% below the all-time inflation-adjusted high in August 2000

The current real price of the S&P500 is 2031.92, an all-time high in the nominal sense.

This level is just 0.7% off the all-time inflation-adjusted high, which was 2046.21 and occurred in August 2000.

Valuation is rich at 26.61 for the Shiller p/e, but well-off the December 1999 peak of 44.19. However, the market crash of 2008-09 was preceded by the Shiller p/e peaking at 27.55 during 2007.

The Shiller p/e has been in a never-never land of high valuation above 26 for extended periods since October 1996, coinciding with the famous onset of "irrational exuberance". You have to go back before that all the way to 1929 to find valuation at 27 and above.

Bank Failure Friday: number 17 on the 7th of November

Frontier Bank, FSB, Palm Desert, California failed last night, costing the FDIC $4.7 million. It was the seventeenth bank failure this year. 6,656 institutions remain insured within the FDIC system through the first half of the year. That's down from 6,891 at the beginning of the year, or 3.4%, as mergers and acquisitions continue to reduce the overall number to a much higher degree than do bank failures. Stricter capital and regulatory rules continue to put pressure on relatively smaller banks, which find it difficult to remain profitable under them.

Hel-lo America . . . Republicans control the New York State Senate once again

Reported here:

In a decisive rebuke to efforts by Democrats to dominate both houses of the New York State Legislature, voters elected Republicans to a clear majority in the State Senate on Tuesday, handing them a wave of victories upstate and on Long Island, and returning the party to full control in a chamber it long dominated.

Unemployment falls to 5.8%, 214,000 jobs added in October

Average jobs added monthly in the last twelve months rose to 222,000. A year ago at this time 190,000 were being added monthly in the prior twelve months. During the Reagan boom 250,000 were added monthly for six years. During the Clinton boom 235,000 were added monthly for eight years. The 17% increase in the pace in the last year is a good thing, but we've got a long way to go, if it can even be sustained. A different indicator may give reason to hope so.

From 2008 to 2013, the percentage of the work force participating had been in steady decline measured October to October, until today. The labor participation rate now is 63.0% vs. 62.9% a year ago, not seasonally adjusted. That's not much but it may mark a turning point. It remains to be seen if the 62.5% level reached in January was in fact the bottom.

Looking at the broad measures, those who say they work usually part-time are up 414,000 not seasonally adjusted from a year ago, but the level remains 233,000 off the previous peak for an October, which occurred in 2012.

Those who work usually full-time are up an astounding 3,378,000 not seasonally adjusted from a year ago at this time. Compared with the peak year of 2007 for this metric, October on October, those who work usually full-time today are still 1.83 million fewer in number than then, not seasonally adjusted.

If you add the two categories together and divide by twelve, you get 316,000 jobs added monthly, not 222,000 as stated in the Establishment Survey which takes a larger sampling.

Go figure.

Average hours went up .1 and average earnings went up 3 cents.

Federal appeals court in Ohio upholds Michigan's 2004 Marriage Amendment

The Detroit News reports here:

The Michigan couple at the center of the same-sex marriage debate vowed Thursday to "continue the fight" after a federal appeals court in Cincinnati upheld the state's gay marriage ban. ...

The U.S. 6th Circuit Court of Appeals also upheld laws prohibiting gay marriage in Ohio, Tennessee and Kentucky, breaking ranks with other courts that have considered the issue and setting the stage for review by the U.S.Supreme Court. ...

Attorney General Bill Schuette, who brought the appeal ... said he welcomes a Supreme Court review. "The U.S. Court of Appeals for the 6th Circuit has ruled, and Michigan's constitution remains in full effect," Schuette said. "As I have stated repeatedly, the U.S. Supreme Court will have the final word on this issue. The sooner they rule, the better, for Michigan and the country."

Voter turnout nationally in 2014 at 36.6% vs. 40.9% in 2010

Reported here.

Remember "you didn't build that"? Yesterday Obama said "you didn't vote for that" crushing Republican wave

The ideologue, dismissive of the facts, quoted here:

“To everyone that voted, I want you to know that I heard you,” Obama began. “To two-thirds of voters that chose not to participate in the process yesterday, I hear you, too.”

Average age of vehicles in operation in 2014 remained steady at 11.4 years

The level was identical in 2013.

IHS/Polk reported here:

SOUTHFIELD, Mich. (June 9, 2014) – The combined average age of all light vehicles on the road in the U.S. remained steady at 11.4 years, based on a snapshot of vehicles in operation taken Jan. 1 of this year, according to IHS Automotive, which incorporated Polk into its business last year.

The gold miners are digging holes in the basement

Republican Larry Hogan wins governorship against "the most incompetent man in Maryland"

WaPo tells the truth here, twenty-eight paragraphs in:

Both campaigns went negative from the outset. On the day after his primary win, Hogan released a Web ad calling Brown “the most incompetent man in Maryland.” It was a reference, in part, to Brown’s role in the state’s botched rollout of the online health insurance marketplace established under the federal Affordable Care Act.

-----------------------------------------------------

And it is said this election wasn't about ObamaCare.

Justin Amash, typical libertarian: For illegal immigration amnesty, unless he's talking to conservatives

Americans elect 9 senators liberal on illegal immigration, but 14 for strong borders and against amnesty

Americans elected the following Republicans last night who are for strong border security and against amnesty for illegal aliens:

Sessions (AL), Cotton (AR), Perdue (GA), Risch (ID), Roberts (KS), McConnell (KY), Cochran (MS), Daines (MT), Tillis (NC-may be strong), Inhofe (OK), Lankford (OK), Scott (SC), Capito (WV) and Enzi (WY).

A grades from NumbersUSA: Sessions, Risch, Roberts, Lankford, Scott, Enzi

B grades: Cotton, McConnell, Cochran, Inhofe

C grades: Daines, Capito

no grade: Tillis

True reformer: Perdue

Republican Senator-elect John Cornyn of Texas also has a divided mind on illegal immigration

According to NumbersUSA.com.

Republican Senator-elect Lamar Alexander from Tennessee is another illegal immigration nightmare for America

According to NumbersUSA.com.

They don't call Republican Senator-elect Lindsey Graham of South Carolina "Lindsey Grahamnesty" for nothing

According to NumbersUSA.com.

Republican Senator-elect Susan Collins in Maine is a disaster on illegal immigration and illegal alien amnesty

According to NumbersUSA.com.

Republican Senator-elect Mike Rounds in South Dakota is definitely not opposed to illegal alien amnesty and wants more immigration

According to NumbersUSA.com.

Republican Senator-elect Ben Sasse in Nebraska has a very divided mind on illegal immigration

According to NumbersUSA.com.

Republican Senator-elect Dan Sullivan in Alaska will not oppose illegal alien amnesty

According to NumbersUSA.com.

Republican Senator-elect Cory Gardner in Colorado definitely does not oppose illegal alien amnesty

According to NumbersUSA here.

Republican Senator-elect Joni Ernst from Iowa leans toward voting for illegal alien amnesty

So says NumbersUSA, here.

Rep. Justin Amash, MI-3, drops "conservative" from his campaign mailer

The new Amash drops "conservative" but still claims to be consistent. 

The old Amash claimed to be conservative.

Too bad it didn't hit Washington DC

Measuring your increasing worthlessness

In 1787 the anti-federalists wanted you to have 21,132 US representatives today.

In 1789 the federalists who dominated the writing of the constitution cut it to 10,566 (but if we were all negro slaves today, then to just 6,340).

After 1920 the Northeast liberal establishment cut it to 435.

And people like Obama want to cut it to 1.

And they still call it America.

Told ya: Exports decline 1.5% in September, imports at record levels, signaling GDP of 3.5% will be revised lower

And to think just five days ago our masters of deception had no idea this was coming. As usual, this was unexpected.

Reported here:

The U.S. trade deficit unexpectedly widened in September as exports hit a five-month low, suggesting slowing global demand could undercut economic growth in the final three months of the year. ...

September's shortfall in the overall trade balance is bigger than the $38.1 billion deficit that the government had assumed in its advance gross domestic product (GDP) estimate for the third quarter published last week. This suggests the 3.5 percent annual growth pace it estimated will probably be trimmed when the government publishes its revisions later this month. Trade was reported to have contributed 1.32 percentage points to GDP growth. Exports in September fell 1.5 percent to $195.59 billion, the lowest since April, a sign that weakening demand in key markets such as China and the euro zone was starting to weigh. ...

Apart from slowing global demand, export growth is seen crimped by a strong dollar, which has so far this year strengthened by about 4 percent against the currencies of the country's main trading partners. ...

Consumer goods imports, however, were the highest on record, as were non-petroleum imports. Imports from China also hit an all-time high, leaving the politically sensitive trade gap at $35.6 billion, the highest on record. Imports from Canada were the highest since July 2008.

Ask yourself this . . .

h/t imao.us

CEO of the barnyard says "I'm proud to eat hay"

Researchers repeatedly prove electronic voting machines like in Cook County, Illinois can be hacked to take votes for one and give them to another

Reported here by The Hill, sixteen paragraphs in:

Some voters might welcome the return to punch voting, given that researchers have repeatedly proved the fallibility of individual e-voting machines. One group from Princeton needed only seven minutes and simple hacking tools to install a computer program on a voting machine that took votes for one candidate and gave them to another.

Gold falls below $1,200 to end the week 3% undervalued relative to oil

1171.60 / 80.54 = 14.54

Republican control of the Senate may well mean immigration amnesty

Most Republicans running for still-in-play US Senate seats are endorsed by the pro-immigration-amnesty US Chamber of Commerce. Consider those listed below without NumbersUSA high rankings or recommendations in parentheses to be sympathetic to amnesty when it comes time to vote on immigration reform, despite what they may say to get elected. The US Chamber doesn't endorse lightly these days, and it wants more cheap labor in this country, which comes at the expense of already unemployed and underemployed Americans.

Endorsed by the US Chamber:

Mitch McConnell in Kentucky (B+)

Thom Tillis in North Carolina

Thad Cochran in Mississippi (B+)

Tom Cotton in Arkansas (B+)

Joni Ernst in Iowa

Scott Brown in New Hampshire (D+)

Steve Daines in Montana (C+)

Corey Gardiner in Colorado (F-)

Mike Rounds in South Dakota

Shelly Moore Capito in West Virginia (C+)

Dan Sullivan in Alaska

Pat Roberts in Kansas (rated A+ by NumbersUSA)

Ed Gillespie in Virginia

Jim Oberweis in Illinois (used to be opposed to amnesty, but not now)

Terri Lynn Land in Michigan

Mike McFadden in Minnesota

Monica Wehby in Oregon

Not endorsed by US Chamber:

Ben Sasse in Nebraska

David Perdue in Georgia (rated "true reformer" by NumbersUSA)

Bill Cassidy in Louisiana (rated A- by Numbers USA)

Endorsement uncertain:

Jeff Bell in New Jersey

Allen Weh in New Mexico

On Tuesday 258 Republican candidates are bought and paid for by the illegal-alien-amnesty-friendly US Chamber of Commerce

Reported here:

Democrats, though, have increasingly fallen out of favor with the Chamber in the Obama era. In 2008, it endorsed 38 Democrats. In 2012, it endorsed five. This cycle, the Chamber has issued 260 endorsements, a total that includes just two Democrats — Reps. Henry Cuellar in Texas and Jim Costa in California. It promises that more Democratic endorsements are on the way, but it will be telling to see how much money the Chamber devotes to saving Democrats in tight races. ... In 2010, with big business rebelling against Democratic initiatives like the Affordable Care Act, cap-and-trade environmental protections and union-friendly "card check" legislation, the Chamber raised and spent $33 million on political activity, winning 87% of the races in which it endorsed a candidate. 

Colorado Republican Cory Gardner running for Senate openly promises to cave on illegal alien amnesty

Breitbart reports here:

Gardner also came out in favor of what he called “earned status” as “part” of comprehensive immigration reform when asked whether he favored extending legal status to illegal immigrants, and that “Ultimately I think the DREAM Act is going to be part of the solution.” ... Gardner, who carried a conservative voting record in the House, has steadily moved left on the issue after entering the Senate campaign against Udall.

Wall Street Journal fears conservatives are winning: Trots out libertarian from Cato Institute to smear Laura Ingraham as nativist

You know Laura Ingraham. She hates foreigners so much she adopted three of them, one from Guatemala and two from Russia, and reportedly almost married a very dark-skinned man.

Here:

Many in the GOP are jockeying for the soul of the party ahead of an anticipated 2014 midterm election victory. Social conservatives are eager to reassert their influence after repeated defeats over gay marriage. Fiscal conservatives make the case for a greater emphasis on runaway spending. And then there are the nativists, who contend that the future of the Republican Party lies in opposing immigration reform. Conservative radio host Laura Ingraham, for example, said last month that, “Immigration could be to 2016 what ObamaCare was to 2010.”

----------------------------------------

Swine.

It used to be the conservative movement consisted of social, fiscal and foreign policy wings. The libertarians don't have a foreign policy because they believe in open borders, so they had to invent something they could caricature and toss in order to have a simpler, Manichean world in which they, the sons of light, fight us, the social conservative sons of darkness.

Two-front wars are too hard for libertarians.

Millions of skilled Americans are still without jobs, but Terri Lynn Land in Michigan wants to bring in more foreigners

Quoted here:

We should modernize visa tracking, increase high-tech visas to bring more highly-skilled workers here, make sure businesses have the tools to effectively verify the status of employees and shorten wait times for those who play by the rules.

If the US Chamber of Commerce endorses Joni Ernst in Iowa, you know she'll cave on illegal immigration

Everyone knows the US Chamber of Commerce holds a gun to the head of Republicans demanding they reach a compromise on illegal immigration with Obama and the Democrats. Joni Ernst obviously got the message way back in May.

When Laura Ingraham recently asked her about illegal immigration on the radio show, Joni Ernst immediately defaulted to the issue of worker visas. Ingraham had to remind her that many Americans are out of work and should come first before we consider importing workers. Joni Ernst reacted almost like she was ashamed she hadn't gotten the memo ahead of the interview.

Enough said.

Terri Lynn Land is basically a TARP Republican, not a capitalist who believes in bankruptcy

Terri Lynn Land quoted here:

I think that doing something to protect the auto industry was the right thing to do, but I would have preferred a plan with more private financing. However, if the options were choosing between going this route and doing nothing, I am glad the auto industry was preserved and is growing again.

Gold miners dive: VGPMX plunged to 8.91 yesterday, hasn't been that cheap since January 2002

The historical low for VGPMX was 5.05 on 8/31/98. The historical high was 40.02 on 5/19/08. The maximum NAV gain was 692.47%.

Alan Greenspan gave gold the kiss of death on Wednesday, suggesting it was a good investment idea going forward. Gold promptly fell out of bed, dropping $21.50 on Thursday and today is down about another $35 so far. Miners say they cannot remain profitable if gold departs much from the $1,200 range. Meanwhile the dollar is soaring toward 87 as the Fed has ended QE.

The maximum NAV gain for VTSMX, by the way, has been 414.31%.

Ebola nurse goes for a bike ride: Will she become Typhoid Kaci?

Why this stock market may have another 20% left in it

Simply stated, the market has another 20% in it because it hasn't yet reached the extremes of valuation which we witnessed in 1999. That's not to say that it must reach those extremes, but it is possible.

At that time, total market cap to GDP came to 1.72, using the Wilshire 5000 as a proxy for the total market (times 1.2).

Since current dollar GDP is $17.5354 trillion, the current ratio is only 1.42, but the level of the Wilshire 5000 implied by a ratio of 1.72 would be about 20% higher than where it is today (total market cap of $30.1609 trillion or Wilshire 5000 25,134.07).

The Wilshire 5000 starts the day at 21,005.50.

Good luck!

Falling oil imports/record rising refined petroleum exports account for today's startling trade contribution to GDP

The Oil and Gas Journal reports here that September petroleum imports plunged to the 1995 level while September was a record month for exports of refined products:

Total petroleum imports for September registered a 16.3% drop from the prior year, averaging just below 8.4 million b/d, which was the lowest level since February 1995. Crude oil imports averaged 7.4 million b/d, down 6.7% over the same period, to the lowest September level in 18 years. Imports of refined petroleum products dropped 52.5% to average 1 million b/d, the lowest level for US Energy Information Administration records dating to 1981. Meanwhile, exports of refined products increased 18.4% from last year to nearly 4.3 million b/d, the highest September level on record and the third-highest exports level ever recorded.

-------------------------------------------------

Imports are a subtraction from GDP, so the big drop in imports coupled with a big surge in refined petroleum exports in September no doubt contributed significantly to the net plus to GDP in the trade column of today's report.

The American Petroleum Institute reports separately here that imports of petroleum in 3Q2014 were 11.4% lower than in the same period in 2013.

The stock market remains very expensive as of the end of 3Q2014

Nominal GDP rose to a level of $17.5354 trillion annualized for 3Q2014, according to the advance estimate of third quarter GDP released today.

Total stock market capitalization had an approximate value of $24.9126 trillion on September 30, 2014.

The ratio of total market cap to GDP on the record date therefore comes to 1.421, down slightly from the 1.445 level which prevailed in 2Q.

The ratio was as low as 0.74 as recently as the end of 2008.

The stock market therefore was about 92% more expensive at the end of September 2014 than it was at the end of 2008, and became just 1.7% cheaper between the second and third quarters of 2014.

3Q2014 GDP Advance Estimate comes in at 3.5%: Deliberately underreporting imports right before the election?

The share contributed to GDP in today's report breaks down as follows:

Personal consumption of goods and services: 34%

Private domestic investment: 4%

Net from export trade: 37%

Government consumption: 23%

I don't believe the import number in the report, which was -1.7%!

What, did the weather close all the ports of entry during July, August and September and we didn't know about it?

Imports, of course, subtract from GDP, so this negative import number boosts the contribution made by exports to GDP.

The last time the import number was negative was in the advance estimate of 1Q GDP, at -1.4%.

You remember 1Q, right, the terrible winter months of January, February and March? But as we all know, that negative number became +0.7% in the second estimate, and +1.8% in the third and final report.

Also note that a surge in defense spending in the third quarter for the war against ISIS all by itself accounts for almost 19% of GDP in this report and 80% of the reported share of government consumption contributing to GDP.

Backing out that government spending on the war means the GDP number is more like 2.8%.

And economists had expected GDP to come in at 3%. 

Jobless claims average 265K weekly, not-seasonally-adjusted, in October 2014

265,000 claims weekly in October is the equivalent of an annual rate of 13.8 million total claims.

Claims in the last four months are now averaging roughly 266,000 weekly compared with the first half of the year at 326,000 weekly.

This means total claims are on track with two months left in the year to come in at a record low in the 21st century in the vicinity of 15.4 million total claims. The best record had been under George Bush with 16.2 million claims.

Poverty thresholds for 2013

Poverty guidelines 2014

As seen here.

Completed foreclosures in September still 119% above normal

Corelogic reports here that completed foreclosure activity reached 46,000 nationally in September, 25,000 above the normal 21,000 level before the housing apocalypse began in 2007.

The report indicates there have been 5.2 million completed foreclosures since September 2008 and 7 million homes lost to foreclosure since 2004, ten years ago.

Florida, California, Texas, Michigan and Georgia alone account for almost half of all completed foreclosures in September.

Maybe Senator Jon "Tin Ear" Kyl really wants Republicans to lose next week

Here is the former Senator from Arizona Republican Jon Kyl in The Wall Street Journal (where else?) just days before the Republicans are about to take back the Senate PUTTING HIS FOOT IN IT, complaining about the Boehner/Obama tax compromise because in his view it really penalized the middle class. It's almost as if he doesn't want Republicans to win next week:

Most workers’ pay has not kept up with inflation for at least six years. ... Why aren’t wages rising? ... [O]ne factor is often overlooked: the tax increase on “the rich” at the beginning of 2013. How could higher taxes on the top 2% or 3% hurt the middle class? ... When the government takes more, there is less to plow back into the business or invest elsewhere.

----------------------------------------------------

Weren't these tax rates the Bush tax rates? Weren't Republicans trying to get them made permanent for years, without success until Boehner came along? If they were so bad for the middle class, why did Republicans pass them in the first place?

Let's see, when we had these tax rates up through the late financial panic, including the lower capital gains tax rates, the first thing businesses did under them was fire everybody to save their sorry behinds. They didn't care about the workers then, and they sure as hell don't now. Millions have abandoned the workforce as a result and won't be returning.

Meanwhile, the all items CPI is up 8.8% over the last six years, while average hourly earnings of all private employees still working is up 12.75% over the same period. Note to Kyl: please pick a metric which makes your point without contradiction.

And then there's the tax rate he is so upset about, which affects the top 0.42% only, all single filers making in excess of $406,751 in 2014. That top tax bracket now pays a higher capital gains tax rate on long term gains at 20% instead of 15% under the compromise, but for some reason Kyl is too sheepish to mention this is a 33% tax hike. Apparently he's too embarrassed to be that specific, because in terms of individual wage earners in 2013 that might affect just barely 520,000 individuals, who are at the very top of the heap of 155.77 million wage earners.

Way to go, Kyl. Paint the Republicans as the party of the rich. The Democrats must love you because they will be more than happy to claim that wages are up because they raised taxes on the rich.

Average Effective Federal Funds Rate by chairman of the Fed in the post-war

William McChesney Martin (15 years)  3.62%
Arthur F. Burns (8)        6.49%
G. William Miller (2)    9.56%
Paul Volcker (9)           10.45%
Alan Greenspan (19)     4.86%
Ben Bernanke (8)          1.58%
Janet Yellin (less than 1) .09%

Average Effective Federal Funds Rates in the post-war by decades

1955-1960  2.62%
1961-1970  4.58%
1971-1980  7.72%
1981-1990  9.44%
1991-2000  4.96%
2001-2010  2.35%
2011-2013  0.12%
2014 to date .09%

Post-war average (six decades): 5.3%

Why do voting machines in heavily Democrat states always malfunction in favor of the Democrats, huh?

Just recently in Schaumburg, Illinois, here, and now in Maryland, here. 

US Antares rocket to intl space station with 5K lbs of supplies explodes on launch

Another photograph of Obama's incompetence. We can't send even supplies reliably after cancelling the Shuttle program, but the Russians can get our astronauts there and back safely. Watch for yourself here.

Maybe NASA should spend less time making nice with Muslims who only want to kill us.

Gold price vs. CPI 2000-2014

Gold averaged $279 in 2000, and so far in 2014 has averaged $1,282 the ounce, an increase of about 360%.

The all items CPI has risen over the same period from 174 to 238, or about 36%.

Which one do you think is the more accurate measure of inflation?

VGPMX tanked to 9.50 yesterday

You have to go back to 2002 to get a price lower than that. Declining gold prices from nearly $1,900 an ounce in 2011 to a range around $1,200 now have put the screws to miners' profitability. New accounting rules for the industry suggest that costs to produce an ounce are too high to justify more production in many places, costs which well exceed the current price of gold. That might mean a floor for the price of gold has been or will be forming near $1,200 as higher cost mines slow production. The average price per ounce in 2013 of $1,411 has fallen so far in 2014 to $1,282.

Why this bull market is running out of steam

Because cost-cutting and stock buybacks have their natural limits, too.

Seen here:

“You can’t do a whole lot more cost cutting and you can’t buy back a whole lot more stock,” David Lafferty, the chief market strategist for Natixis Global Asset Management in Boston, said by phone. His firm manages about $930 billion. “The big disconnect where companies have been able to grow their earnings significantly faster than top-line revenue growth is coming to an end.”

Hey look! He fixed it!

Ausländer raus!

Drudge is umbday in any language: Good help is still hard to find

Don't let anybody tell you cattle futures create profits easily

Joni Ernst scares Paul Begala: It's a good thing

The Forehead wets himself, here:

[I]f it was a serious statement of philosophy, it was chilling -- even scary. Joni Ernst, the Iowa candidate who has vaulted to within an inch of United States Senate due to her boasting of hog castration in this year's most inventive political ad, was speaking to the National Rifle Association in 2012. "I do believe in the right to carry, and I believe in the right to defend myself and my family -- whether it's from an intruder, or whether it's from the government, should they decide that my rights are no longer important." . . . [I]t's one thing to hear, say, goofball Ted Nugent honk off that way. (The Nuge, by the way, has boasted about how he avoided taking up arms in defense of his country during Vietnam.) It is another to know that someone with those loopy views is one step away from the United States Senate.

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Speaking of loopy views, Thomas Jefferson, a step away from the presidency and writing about Shays Rebellion in 1787, had liars like Paul Begala who talks only of The Whiskey Rebellion in mind when he said this about taking up arms as a warning to rulers:

The British ministry have so long hired their gazetteers to repeat and model into every form lies about our being in anarchy, that the world has at length believed them, the English nation has believed them, the ministers themselves have come to believe them, and what is more wonderful, we have believed them ourselves. Yet where does this anarchy exist? Where did it ever exist, except in the single instance of Massachusets? And can history produce an instance of a rebellion so honourably conducted? I say nothing of its motives. They were founded in ignorance, not wickedness. God forbid we should ever be 20. years without such a rebellion. The people can not be all, and always, well informed. The part which is wrong will be discontented in proportion to the importance of the facts they misconceive. If they remain quiet under such misconceptions it is a lethargy, the forerunner of death to the public liberty. We have had 13. states independant 11. years. There has been one rebellion. That comes to one rebellion in a century and a half for each state. What country ever existed a century and a half without a rebellion? And what country can preserve its liberties if their rulers are not warned from time to time that their people preserve the spirit of resistance? Let them take arms. The remedy is to set them right as to facts, pardon and pacify them. What signify a few lives lost in a century or two? The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants. It is its natural manure. 

The gold/oil ratio remains at par tonight

The gold/oil ratio ends the week at 15.2, meaning the price of gold relative to the price of oil is just about right.

1231.8/81.01 = 15.2.

Bank Failure Friday: the 16th in 2014

The National Republic Bank of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois, failed tonight, costing the FDIC $111.6 million, a fairly big one by recent standards.

The bank was an Indian-American-owned bank, specializing in the hotel and motel lending business. 

The rising share of US workers not making the average wage 1990-2013

The raw average of net compensation for Social Security purposes has risen 113% since 1990, from $20,172 in 1990 to $43,041 in 2013.

The share of workers not earning as much as the raw average of net compensation has risen 6% over the period, from 63% of workers in 1990 to 66.9% in 2013.

In 1990 there were 127.5 million wage earners, 63% of whom made less than $20,172. If 63% of workers in 2013 didn't make as much as the average wage of $43,041 instead of the actual 66.9%, they would have numbered 98.1 million in 2013. Instead they numbered 104.2 million. 

The workforce recession is "over": Social Security wage earners finally surpass the 2007 peak in 2013

The wage statistics report for 2013 from Social Security came out today and shows that the number of workers for Social Security purposes has finally in 2013 exceeded the level first reached in 2007, after bottoming out in 2010. The level in 2013 is not up by much since 2007, but 200,000 workers is 200,000 workers. Unfortunately, however, the population level is up far more than that over the period . . . by 15 million net. And more people regrettably are also making less than the raw average shown. Between 2007 and 2013 these have increased from 66.6% of workers to 66.9%.

2007: 155.57 million workers/net compensation $6.03 trillion = $38,760 per worker

2008: 155.43 million workers/net compensation $6.16 trillion = $39,631 per worker

2009: 150.91 million workers/net compensation $5.89 trillion = $39,029 per worker

2010: 150.39 million workers/net compensation $6.00 trillion = $39,896 per worker

2011: 151.38 million workers/net compensation $6.23 trillion = $41,154 per worker

2012: 153.63 million workers/net compensation $6.52 trillion = $42,439 per worker

2013: 155.77 million workers/net compensation $6.70 trillion = $43,012 per worker

National Rifle Association political arm doesn't endorse Republicans Justin Amash and Ruth Johnson in Michigan

Rep. Justin Amash, MI-3, gets a "B-" grade from the NRA's Political Victory Fund, while Secretary of State Ruth Johnson gets a "B" grade. Amash is notable for crossing the aisle to lend support on 4th Amendment issues and to argue for enforcing the War Powers Act, but many of his friends on the right are disappointed with Amash's voting record on the 2nd Amendment, among other things.

The Republican governor of the state, Rick Snyder, also gets a "B" grade from the NRA, but unlike Amash and Johnson, Rick Snyder gets an endorsement.

There isn't a single other endorsement of a B-graded politician in the state as of September 15th, and just six Democrats receive endorsements, all in Michigan's House of Representatives, which has 110 (!) districts.

The NRA endorses no one in six of Michigan's fourteen US House districts, and endorses Terry Lynn Land for US Senate and gives her opponent, Gary Peters, an "F" grade.

Other notables getting "F" grades are Amash's opponent Bob Goodrich in MI-3, a fellow traveler if ever there was one, Dan Kildee in MI-5, Pam Byrnes in MI-7, Sander Levin in MI-9, Amash's buddy John Conyers Jr. in MI-13, and Brenda Lawrence in MI-14. Conyers infamously likes to read Playboy for the articles in coach class, and couldn't get enough signatures to be on the ballot this time but got on anyway with help from a Democrat judge.

More getting "F" grades are State Senate Democrats Coleman A. Young II in District 1, Morris W. Hood III in District 3, David Knezek in District 5, Rebekah Warren in District 18 and Shari Pollesch in District 22.

There's just one "F" grade in the State House: District 2's Democrat incumbent Alberta Tinsley-Talabi.

Republicans in the State Senate with grades less than "A" like Amash include Mike Nofs in District 19 with a "B-", Brendt Gerics in District 27 with a "C+", and Darwin L. Booher in District 35 with a "B".

Low scoring Republicans in the State House include:

Kelly Thompson in District 12 with a "C"
Harry Sawicki in District 13 with a "B-"
Nathan Inks in District 14 with a "C"
Carol Ann Fausone in District 21 with a "B-"
Michael Ryan in District 27 with a "B-"
Michael D. McCready in District 40 with a "D"
Henry Vaupel in District 47 with a "B-"
Lu Penton in District 49 with a "C"
Eric Leutheuser in District 58 with a "B"
Brandt Iden in District 61 with a "B"
John Bizon in District 62 with a "B+"
David C. Maturen in District 63 with a "B-"
Chris Afendoulis in District 73 with a "C"
Donijo DeJonge in District 76 with a "B-"
Carlos Jaime in District 96 with a "B+"
and Larry C. Inman in District 104 with a "C+". 

United Parcel Service again to raise rates broadly beginning December 29th, by nearly 5%

When's the last time you got a 5% raise?

Story here:

UPS says it is raising rates for a number of its shipping services by an average of 4.9 percent for 2015. The Atlanta-based company said Monday it is increasing rates for its ground, air, international, UPS Freight, and UPS air freight rates within and between the U.S., Canada and Puerto Rico. The increase goes into effect on Dec. 29.

Similarly-sized rate increases occurred in both 2011 and 2012, reported here:

According to company officials, non-contractual 2012 rates will be comprised of a net increase of 4.9 percent for UPS ground packages and a net increase of 4.9 percent on all UPS air services and U.S. origin international shipments. This increase is identical to the one the transportation bellwether rolled out a year ago for 2011 rate hikes.

Uh huh.

The all-items CPI rose by 1.4% in 2010, 3.02% in 2011, 1.76% in 2012 and just 1.5% in 2013, despite all the federal interventions to target inflation at 2.0%. The average rise was 1.9%.

Average hourly earnings nationwide, meanwhile, over the exact same periods increased by 1.7% in 2010, 1.98% in 2011, 2.11% in 2012 and 1.94% in 2013.  The average rise was also 1.9%.  

Since the last market peak in August 2000, real returns from stocks have averaged just 1.61% per year through August 2014

politicalcalculations.blogspot.com

The inflation-adjusted market peak was in August 2000 at S&P500 2044.67, still unequalled (2011.36 is as high as we've gotten). Through August 2014, your average real return from stocks, that is, your return adjusted for inflation with dividends fully reinvested along the way, has been just 1.61% per year for 14 years. Without dividend reinvestment, your return actually has been negative annually because of inflation. Nominally your return has been 3.95% per year, dividends reinvested.

Compare bonds over the last 15 years to date. Take VBMFX, Vanguard's Total Bond Market Index Fund. Morningstar shows your nominal 15 year return this morning at 5.49% per annum. VBIIX, Vanguard's Intermediate Term Bond Index Fund, has done even better, at 6.59% per annum, nominal.

Clearly, bonds have beaten stocks over the long haul since 2000. And valuations tell you why. Yardsticks such as the Shiller p/e have not dipped below 15 to any meaningful degree over the whole period, meaning stocks have been pricey for the performance you get. The higher the price, the poorer the return.

Expect the same from stocks going forward as long as valuations remain as elevated as they are. Today's Shiller p/e starts out at 24.95.

Conservatives should dump AT&T

In Michigan AT&T backs adding sexual orientation and gender expression to Michigan's civil rights legislation in order to prohibit differential treatment by employers based on those.

Religious and religious employers take note.

You have choice! Comcast, Charter, cell phone companies, etc.

And definitely dump the TV sewer pipe into your house. I dumped television when analog went away a few years ago, and I haven't missed a thing except wanting to shoot the screen. Keeps my BP under control, too, the natural way.

Story here.

Net worth of $3,650 puts you in the top half globally

So quit complaining.

Story here.