Monday, May 21, 2012

Price Of Gold Is Not A Function Of The US Dollar

Gold is nearly $1600 the ounce today with the dollar index near 81, yet in 2004 when the dollar index was at the same level, gold was far cheaper.

So Mish here with charts:


Note that the US dollar index is right where it was over seven years ago. 


The US$ index is at a spot first touched in late 2004. Gold was well under $500 an ounce at that time, so please do not tell me gold is a function of the US dollar.


One of the reasons gold is at $1600 with the US dollar index above 81 is precisely because central banks in general (notably the Fed, the ECB, the Bank of England, and China) have printed nonstop and the Fed and the ECB have initiated all sorts of liquidity and QE measures. In addition, the ECB's balance sheet is more bloated than the balance sheet of the Fed thanks to the LTRO program.
  
The proper conclusion is that gold is a function of mistrust in fiat currencies in general, not just the US dollar. However, nothing moves in a straight line including faith (or lack thereof) in central banks' ability to handle this crisis.