Sunday, October 12, 2025

The total value of all the stocks on the U.S. stock market is now 216% of GDP

 

... The total value of all the stocks on the U.S. stock market is now 216% of gross domestic product, a metric once cited by Warren Buffett as his favorite yardstick for whether the market was cheap or expensive. The current reading is “one of the highest levels on record,” according to calculations by Jennifer Nash at Advisor Perspectives. According to another long-running measure, the Tobin’s Q, the market is more than twice average valuations.  ...

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Delusional Trump promised 9-cent electricity within 12 months and doubled electricity generating capacity "quickly" in Detroit in October 2024

We haven't seen 9-cent electricity since 2003 and aren't likely to ever again, and doubling generating capacity will take well into the 2040s, twenty more years. 

Piped utility gas costs 15% more on average than when he spoke, while the average price of gasoline is basically flat but falling.

We'll get updated data this week maybe, since despite the shutdown the administration is pledging to report the consumer price index figures.

But the main point is, Trump has no idea what he's talking about. 

 

Delusional Mollie Hemingway says murderer Donald Trump is hungry for peace

 

 
 

 

Delusional Donald Trump thinks Joe Biden was in charge of the FBI on Jan 6, 2021

 That's the thing about Donald Trump. Even when he's in charge he's not.


Undemocratic progressives, but I repeat myself, utterly blew it by betraying Joe Biden in summer 2024

Imagine Joe Biden is president today.

All eyes would be on progressive policy standard-bearer and VP Kamala Harris at this point in Joe Biden's second term, had he run and won, because of his illness headlined below.

Progressives would have been sitting in the catbird seat for the foreseeable future, advancing their agenda on climate change, renewable energy, higher taxes on the rich, and higher spending on healthcare.

The Democrat failure to stick together in 2024 was a crack-up worthy of 1968, the damage from which Democrats did not recover until 1992.

Just 270,000 votes across four states were the difference between the thrill of victory and the agony of defeat in 2024, and that was for the disloyal Kamala Harris.

Progressives have proven themselves unworthy of the name Democrat by their actions in usurping Joe Biden's presidency, and Kamala Harris proved it by her words in her memoir when she framed Biden's decision to run for re-election as entirely personal and therefore reckless, when 14+ million Democrat primary voters for Joe Biden thought otherwise.

14 million primary voters, ignored. That's what progressives stand for. They respect democracy no more than does Mad King Ludwig.

Saturday, October 11, 2025

What's next for Mad King Ludwig's revolution after an Arc de Triomphe, Madame Guillotine?

... Triumphal arches were widely used by the Romans to commemorate victories. Those Roman arches inspired more recent structures in Europe, most notably the Arc de Triomphe in Paris, which was constructed in the first part of the 19th century. The models displayed in the Oval Office closely resemble those structures, inspiring some online commentators to joke that the new monument would be “the Arc de Trump.”...


 


Friday, October 10, 2025

As long as I can pay with money I don't have, I'm cool with it

 ChatGPT planning vacations to places that don't exist...

Gold and silver this morning

 ... Spot gold, which hit a record high of $4,059.05 on Wednesday, was up 0.5% to $3,992.97 per ounce as of 0919 GMT - a gain of 2.7% so far this week. U.S. gold futures for December delivery rose 0.8% to $4,005.30. ... Silver rose 3.7% to $50.95 per ounce a day after touching a record high of $51.22. It has gained 76% so far this year. ...

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When the energy rubber hits the supply road, it's paved with coal

AI power demand is forcing a coal revival. Jefferies sees more than 30% rally in one such stock

Thursday, October 9, 2025

The Department of the Treasury of the United States isn't supposed to be politicized like this

 

 

 

 

 

The BEA and BLS aren't like this.


Silver and gold make new highs

 



Gold vs. SPX

SPX 1999-2025

  1,469.25 12-31-1999
   6,753.72 10-8-2025 close
   +359% 
 
GOLD 1999-2025
 
   278.88 average 1999 price per Kitco
   +1348%
 
Open and shut case, right?
 
Well, not so fast. 
 
With dividend reinvestment SPX returned approximately 712% over the period, not just the 359% increase in the price level. 
 
$279 invested in SPX in 1999 would yield approximately $2,267 by now vs. $4,038 for gold, which yields nothing over time beyond the increase in its price. Plus you have to pay to protect your gold from thieves.
 
Still, the gold outcome has been about 78% better, but that's only thanks to the recent dramatic rise in the gold price since 2023 when gold was still in the neighborhood of $1,940 an ounce, after averaging just a little over $1,800 in 2022.
 
Although I expect gold to continue to rise, a stock market reset would most likely trigger a big self-off in gold as stock and other speculators raise cash to cover their debts.
 
As always, diversification is key to surviving as an investor. And more important than that is being able to cover your debts if you won't live without debt. 
  

Guess which of these two headlines is up at Real Clear Politics this morning

 Trump Is Weaponizing the Government Against His Enemies. It Doesn’t Mean He’ll Succeed.

 
 

 
 

Nutball Tucker Carlson: We have to have an authoritarian crackdown in order to prevent a totalitarian takeover


 

Hamas turning over the bodies of the Israeli hostages they killed is not a major accomplishment

Left, right, and in between in this country is completely warped. 

 NYT: President Trump On Brink of Major Diplomatic Accomplishment

King Coal 2024, for more than 50 years, sixth paragraph in lol, weak wind and hydro in Europe

... Coal, a major contributor to global warming, was still the world's largest individual source of energy generation in 2024, a position it has held for more than 50 years, according to the IEA. ... in the EU, months of weak wind and hydropower performance led to a rise in coal and gas generation. ... winter wind lulls can last for weeks, requiring backup power sources that batteries alone can't provide - making the system more expensive to build and run. ...

Wednesday, October 8, 2025

Palisades Fire was lit by a 29-year old pyromaniacal Uber driver, not by fireworks, lightning, power lines, or climate change

The NBC story doesn't mention that last one lol.

How many is that now? All of them? 

29-year-old former Uber driver arrested in connection with starting deadly Palisades Fire

 ... Authorities said the Palisades Fire was a “holdover” fire or a continuation of the Lachman Fire that Rinderknecht allegedly started on New Year’s Day.

Firefighters were able to suppress the Lachman Fire, but did not know that it continued to smolder and burn underground, a criminal complaint states.

On Jan. 7, as heavy winds swept through the area, the fire began to surface and spread, becoming the Palisades Fire. ...

Investigators said other possible factors, including fireworks, lightning and power lines, were determined not to be the cause of the fire.

Senator Ron Johnson squeals like a pig for the Gang of Nine

 ...  none of us were ... targets of this investigation. There's no predicate. ...

Ha ha ha. 

Here.

Johnson is not telling the truth about his role in the fake elector scheme.

 



So far, the Trump administration is projected to have spent about $71,000 on each one of the ~50,000 deported per month to date


H.R. 1 passed in July allocates $170 billion to DHS for immigration and border enforcement over four years.

In September DHS said over 400,000 had been deported since January 20th.

So in eight months that's 50,000 deported per month at a cost of $3.542 billion per month, or $70,833 per person deported. 

It would have been far cheaper to cut illegals off at the source, by going after their employers instead of going after each and every illegal employee.

But that would have been a really bad look, in a country where the employer can do no wrong and the full time job is the summum bonum

The red meat of the current deportation theatre is far more useful to Trump as politics. It must be thrown daily to keep the base energized, the warriors busy, and the emperor in the spotlight. 

"Boy, that Trump is really doing a great job! Look at that! He got another one!". 

Nevermind that the best he'll ever do like this is 2.4 million deportees, when we've got many millions more than that. The easy pickings are soon to be exhausted, if they aren't already. And it will only get harder from here.

Remember that just a few months ago the goal was 3,000 deportees per day, or 4.38 million in four years. The goalposts have already been moved, and they'll no doubt be moved again. We're down to 1,666 per day on their own accounting.

That's how you know this is not serious. 

The spectacle is the whole point. 

 


Year to date spot gold is up ~54%

By comparison, Total Stock Market Index VTSAX is up 14.83% ytd through yesterday.

Total Bond Market Index VBTLX is up 6.4%.

... The [gold] rally has been driven by a cocktail of factors, including . . . a weak dollar. ... -- CNBC 

Would these people know a weak dollar if they saw it?

Trying to explain gold like this is just silly.

The Nominal Broad U.S. Dollar Index is 120.51, down 7.4% from the January all time high of 130.21.

The all time low for this index was under Obama in July 2011, at 85.46.

You remember the summer of 2011, right? 

The dollar was at its weakest, America lost its AAA rating, and precisely net zero jobs were created that August, the first time since WWII.

We have a strong dollar today, not a weak one.