A thousand feet when what we need is two thousand miles.
I'm voting for Viktor Orban on Tuesday.
Sunday, November 4, 2018
Saturday, November 3, 2018
Friday, November 2, 2018
The Nerd is a Jerk: My asshole NeverTrump Republican governor in Michigan, Rick Snyder, just robocalled me asking me to vote for a lowly state senate candidate
But he never mentioned his fellow Republican running to replace him, Bill Schuette, to fill his term-limited seat.
Snyder's failure to back Schuette is a green light in Michigan for Republicans to withhold their vote from Bill Schuette, the candidate for governor endorsed by Donald Trump.
Just for that I'm voting for "Ketchup" instead of for Chris Afendoulis.
And in the race for MI-3, Justin Amash's seat in the US House, I'll be voting for "Mustard".
In many states Democrats are trying to fool the voters by running against their leaders Pelosi and Schumer
But once in office they'll vote as their leaders require, just as Rahm Emanuel's 2006 "Blue Dog" victors did, including for Obamacare. Not one of these people save for Manchin would or did vote to confirm Brett Kavanaugh.
In Missouri, Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) has a radio ad declaring she’s “not one of those crazy Democrats.” She’s in a razor-tight race against Josh Hawley, the state’s attorney general.
In Montana, Sen. Jon Tester (D), whose race against Republican Matt Rosendale has tightened considerably, told The Hill that Democrats “botched” the debate over Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh.
He also criticized Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren’s (D) use of DNA results to claim Native American heritage, saying it doesn’t “pass the test.”
In Tennessee and Arizona, former Gov. Phil Bredesen (D) and Rep. Kyrsten Sinema (D) are telling voters that they will not back Senate Minority Leader Charles Schumer (N.Y.) for Senate Democratic Leader. Trump won both of those states in 2016, too.
In West Virginia, Sen. Joe Manchin (W.Va.) broke with his party and backed Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh's confirmation.
In Indiana, Sen. Joe Donnelly (D) has a television ad warning of “socialists” who “want to turn health care over to the government “ and of the “radical left” wanting to eliminate U.S. Immigrations and Customs Enforcement. ...
In Nevada, where Clinton won a victory, Rep. Jacky Rosen (D) has an ad touting her clash with House Democratic Speaker Nancy Pelosi (Calif.) to reform the Veterans Affairs Department.
“Jacky stood up to Nancy Pelosi to reform the VA,” a veteran tells viewers.
Rosen is in a tight race against Sen. Dean Heller (R-Nev.).
With 4 days to go to the midterm elections, toss-up races in the US House increase to 36 at Real Clear Politics
As of this morning, Republicans are likely to get 196 seats plus 12 seats polling in their column in the last poll taken in the toss-ups for a total of 208.
Democrats are likely to get 203 seats plus 19 seats polling in their column in the last poll taken in the toss-ups for a total of 222.
Just 4 seats remain tied, and there is no poll in 1 toss-up race.
Fully 25 of 36 toss-up races are polling tied to +2, or 69% of the toss-ups.
For 32 of the toss-up races, the average margin of error is 4.88 points.
Polling is a form of campaigning!
The only poll that counts is 96 hours away.
Remember that giving Democrats control of the US House means two more years of relitigating the 2016 election.
Move on!
Thursday, November 1, 2018
Investors Business Daily has a sensible editorial on birthright citizenship
As Daniel Horowitz recently noted, the only legal justification for granting citizenship to illegals comes in a footnote to the Supreme Court's Plylor V. Doe decision. In it, ultra-liberal Justice William Brennan claimed that illegal aliens had a right to claim jurisdiction under U.S. law. But it's never really been decided as a separate issue by the Supreme Court.
So on strictly constructed constitutional grounds, Trump is right. Whether you hate him or not.
Of course, the counter-argument to that is: We have allowed this system to go on for so long without direct challenge it now has the force of law. That is a legitimate legal argument. It deserves serious consideration, either by Congress or the courts.
And that's our point. As bad as we think birthright citizenship for illegal immigrants is, any decision should be a matter of law and democratic process, not of screaming and name-calling. We have a Congress. We have a court system. The president has, in effect, challenged them to do their job. So they should do it.
If they don't, then Donald Trump, as the nation's chief executive, is well within his rights to issue an executive order if he thinks birthright citizenship represents a violation of the Constitution and threatens harm to the nation. It's his duty.
He has precedent. Axios.com quoted Trump telling reporters Wednesday that, if President Obama can "do DACA, we can do this by executive order."
Real Clear Politics predicts Republicans taking the Senate 52-48 in its no toss-ups map with 5 days to go
Hard as it is to believe, AZ has gone wobbly with Democrat wack job Kyrsten Sinema ahead in the average of the polls by 0.7 points. AZ deserves the military pilot who never crashed her plane to be its next senator, Republican Martha McSally.
Evidently Arizona is suffering from too many Californians. Let's hope they're all high on meth next Tuesday.
In ND Republican Kevin Cramer is well ahead of the Democrat incumbent by an average of 11.4 points.
In MO Republican Josh Hawley is ahead of Democrat incumbent Claire McCaskill by an average of 2 points. A Republican victory would be sweet revenge against the dirty trickster.
Toss-ups other than AZ and MO include the following:
Republican Dean Heller is ahead by 2 points on average in NV.
Democrat John Tester is ahead in MT by 4.2 points on average.
Democrat incumbent Joe Donnelly is in trouble in IN, hanging by a thread by 0.8 points on average.
And Democrat Bill Nelson is still ahead in FL with a 2 point advantage over popular governor Rick Scott.
Republicans are otherwise longshots in New Jersey, Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota. The corrupt do-nothing Democrats in New Jersey and Michigan especially deserve to be unseated.
With 5 days to go to the election, US House races too close to call now number 34 at Real Clear Politics
Based on the latest dated poll in each race, US House races as of this morning shake out as follows:
Of 34 toss-ups, Democrats are polling ahead in 18 races by an average of +2.83;
Republicans poll ahead in 10 races by an average of +2.50;
5 races are tied, and 1 race has no polling at all.
Democrats are otherwise slated as likely to take 203 seats and Republicans 198.
If the voters vote as the polls predict in the toss-ups, Democrats would take 221 seats, Republicans 208, with 5 tied and 1 unpredictable.
The margin of error in these polls, however, is quite high, often 4 to 5 points.
24 of the 34 races are as close as 0-2 polling points.
218 is needed for a majority.
Wednesday, October 31, 2018
Rasmussen generic Congressional survey has Democrats at 47%, Republicans at 44%, 3% for other, 6% undecided
The stated margin of error is plus or minus two points.
Reported here:
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone and online survey finds that 47% of Likely U.S. Voters would choose the Democratic candidate if the elections for Congress were held today. Forty-four percent (44%) would opt for the Republican. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate, and six percent (6%) are undecided.
Tuesday, October 30, 2018
One week out, Democrats are very narrowly set to take the US House 219 to 210 with 6 races tied
With 204 seats already likely going Democrat according to Real Clear Politics, 15 toss-up seats tonight are favoring Democrats in the very latest polling, but only by the slimmest of margins, +2.46 per race on average:
MN-1
NV-3
NV-4
CA-10
CA-39
CA-45
FL-26
FL-27
IA-3
IL-6
NJ-7
NY-19
NY-22
VA-5
VA-7.
Five of these are one-point races, six are two-point races.
For their part Republicans are set to take 199 seats, with 11 toss-ups in their column with an average polling advantage per race of +3.27 in the last poll:
CA-25
CA-48
KS-2
KY-6
MI-8
NC-9
NJ-3
PA-1
TX-7
TX-32
WA-8.
Five of these also are one-point races, with just one two-point race.
Six seats remain all tied up in the latest poll in each race:
FL-15
ME-2
MI-11
MT-at large
NM-2
UT-4.
Monday, October 29, 2018
PA-1 goes dramatically from Democrat +7 to Republican +1 in the latest poll, UT-4 remains tied
The Utah poll previously showing the race tied runs through 10/26, but a different poll on 10/25 has just been reported showing the Democrat +7.
My rule is to use the latest poll for the math, so I'm making no changes. On top of that, the Democrat +7 result looks really suspicious given the large number of likely voters it claims to have polled, all in just one day! The untimely release is also a flag. They can poll nearly a thousand people in one day but it takes them four to report the results? Looks more like polling as publicity for the candidate in the final week of the campaign than anything else.
The Pennsylvania poll showing the big flip to the Republican is noteworthy because it's the very same poll which showed the Democrat so far ahead just two weeks earlier.
The math had been 220 Dem, 210 Rep, 5 Tied.
So PA-1 shifts that to 219 Dem, 211 Rep, 5 Tied.
NM-2 goes from Republican to tied in latest poll, CA-25 flips dramatically to Republican +4, VA-7 goes Democrat +1 from tied
The electoral math based on the last poll in each toss-up race had been 220 Dem, 210 Rep, 5 Tied as of last night.
So the new tie in NM-2 means the math becomes 220 Dem, 209 Rep, 6 Tied.
But CA-25 changes that to 219 Dem, 210 Rep, 6 Tied.
And VA-7 changes that to 220 Dem, 210 Rep, 5 Tied.
Real Clear Politics this morning shows 30 toss-up races, and otherwise gives the Democrats 205 to the Republicans' 200.
5 of the toss-ups are polling tied, 10 are polling Republican, and 15 are polling Democrat.
The average polling lead in the 15 Democrat toss-ups is 2.73 points.
The average polling lead in the 10 Republican toss-ups is 2.9 points.
These polls typically have a margin of error much higher than 2 to 3 points, so this is shaping up to be quite the narrowly fought contest rather than a wave election.
Democrats would be doing better had they not fielded so many extreme candidates.
Sunday, October 28, 2018
Drudge is wrong: The deadliest anti-Semitic attack in US history didn't occur in Pittsburgh, not by a longshot
The deadliest anti-Semitic attack occurred in 1939 when FDR refused to let the MS St. Louis of the Hamburg America Line dock with its over 900 Jewish refugees from Hitler's Germany.
The ship eventually had to return to Europe and it is estimated that over 200 of its Jews ended up being exterminated in the camps.
So much for the Jewess's sonnet:
"Give me your tired, your poor,
Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free,
The wretched refuse of your teeming shore.
Send these, the homeless, tempest-tost to me,
I lift my lamp beside the golden door!"
Real Clear Politics removes NC-13 and NM-2 from toss-ups column, both now lean Republican
That reduces the toss-up races to 29 but the forecast math still shows the Democrats taking control of the US House 220-210 with 5 races tied based on the latest poll in each toss-up race. NC-13 and NM-2 were already in the Republican column based on the polling and so they were already Republican in the math.
With only one full week remaining in the campaign, expect the polling to become more predictive.
But as always, the only poll that counts is the one taken on election day.
Saturday, October 27, 2018
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