Thursday, June 7, 2018
Jan Hatzius is hysterical: Unemployment rate set to move into overheating territory
Quoted here:
"We are still creating a lot more jobs than the long-term trend which we would put at 100,000 (each month), so when you are adding 200,000, that means the unemployment rate is set to move into overheating territory," Hatzius added.
The 62-year trend for total nonfarm (Jan 1939 - Jan 2001) is 138,143 jobs/month. Since 2001 through Jan 2018 we're off that trend by 46%, with a monthly rate of just 74,014 jobs added a month. Go back 18 years from May 2018 to incorporate present-day job-creation and the monthly rate goes up only to 76,597 jobs/month.
For workers, the last 17-18 years have absolutely SUCKED!
Nothing is overheating here except Jan Hatzius.
For him recovering the missing 13 million + jobs since 2001 would be a catastrophe . . . for the profits of Goldman Sachs.
Wednesday, June 6, 2018
We have 16.1 million total unemployed in May 2018, and 16.8 million new legal immigrants since Bush 43 was elected
Legal immigration into the US has been out of control since Bush 41 succeeded Reagan
Kinder, gentler America, my ass.
More like multicultural hell.
Are you paying attention, Mr. Trump?
Brian Wesbury thinks job growth of 2.3 million to 2.4 million is great when we're really just treading water
Here, in "Jobs, Jobs, Jobs":
"[W]e’ve rarely seen a job market this strong. ... Nonfarm payrolls grew 223,000 in May and are up 2.4 million in the past year. Civilian employment, an alternative gauge of jobs that better measures small business start-ups, grew 293,000 in May and is up 2.3 million in the past year."
Where has Brian been? Living under a rock?
Between 1991 and 2000 annual average total nonfarm grew by 2.6 million a year for nine years straight.
How about between 1983 and 1989? Annual average total nonfarm grew then by almost 3 million a year for six years straight.
Payroll growth right now of 2.4 million a year is barely adding 100,000 net new jobs annually with population increasing at a rate of 2.3 million a year.
We have 16.1 million total unemployed as it is.
At this rate it'll take 161 years to put them all back to work.
What that means is the economy has effectively, and permanently, shrunk.
What that means is the economy has effectively, and permanently, shrunk.
Tuesday, June 5, 2018
Rush is right: On the eve of Election 2016 the American Bar Association Journal was speculating whether Hillary could pardon herself
The assumption was she would win.
The BS headline about jobs the open-borders fanatics keep repeating: Job openings outnumber available workers
The unemployment level is currently 6.06 million. The part-time who want a full-time job currently number 4.87 million. The number not-in-the-labor-force-want-a-job-now is 5.18 million in May 2018. Add 'em all up and there's 16.11 million people right here in America for the 6.55 million job openings. The employers don't fill the jobs because they can, otherwise the situation wouldn't persist.
Not enough workers? Like hell there aren't.
Euphoric employment headlines are absurd, signify an economic top
So says macromon, here:
Yikes! Those euphoric headlines signal an economic top to us, they always do. Furthermore, they are completely absurd.
Correctamundo.
Not one month in to his ambassadorship to Germany, Richard Grenell is throwing his weight around like Ernst Röhm
All of Trump's problems begin with personnel, because he picks them.
From the story here:
Richard Grenell had taken up his diplomatic posting in Berlin on May 8, and immediately irked Germany when he tweeted on the same day that German companies should stop doing business with Iran as Trump quit the nuclear deal with the Islamic Republic.
He stoked further outrage over the weekend with reported comments to far-right website Breitbart of his ambition to "empower other conservatives throughout Europe, other leaders".
Grenell also raised eyebrows with his plan to host Austria's arch-conservative Chancellor Sebastian Kurz -- who the US envoy describes as a "rock star", for lunch on June 13.
Monday, June 4, 2018
Sorry Jonathon Trugman, one month does not a full-time story make
Here he is, without data:
"Yes, folks, things really are looking better for full-time employment."
It's true that the percentage of the population working full-time in May 2018 is up, to 50.1%.
Unfortunately the average for the first five months of 2018 is only 49.3%, the same as for the whole of 2017. Despite the surge in May, the average indicates no progress over 2017, yet.
Full-time peaks every year in July or August, so we'll see what happens. But when all is said and done, I'm expecting the full year to average about 49.8%, up about a half point.
In any event, we're still down in the basement trying to climb back to 52.1%, the pre-Great Recession average. To do it, we'll need another 5.1 million jobs, right quick like. If using the averages, 7 million.
But there is no driver for such jobs in this country, because we threw out the old one: housing. The whole economy was based on housing in the post-war, and once the Baby Boom bankers and politicians got their grubby little hands on it under Clinton and Bush 43, they managed to screw that pooch right along with everything else they've touched. A bunch of spendthrifts and squanderers are we.
Laugh of the Day: Supremes rule 7-2 on behalf of Christian cake-baker, CNBC calls it "narrow"
I guess they don't want us to get too excited about the Supremes slapping down Colorado's anti-religious hostility, which violated the defendant's religious rights, according to the story.
Try again. I'm so excited, I'm about to lose control and I think I like it.
The gap in full-time employment has closed by 1.8 million in the last year, but we're still 5.1 million behind the pre-Great Recession average
Full-time employment before the Great Recession averaged 52.1% of the civilian noninstitutional population over a 12-year period through 2008.
In 2017, the average was still 49.3%, meaning relative to the period before the Great Recession, 6.9 million fewer full-time jobs existed than could have, assuming a real jobs recovery to pre-recession conditions.
In May 2018, the actual percentage has risen to 50.1%. The difference between that and full-time at 52.1% is still 5.1 million full-time jobs.
Things are looking better, but we still haven't recovered from the appalling conditions which ensued upon the Great Recession, not by a long shot.
We still live in a shrunken economy.
Sunday, June 3, 2018
China's pledge to maintain Hong Kong's freedoms and institutions is as worthless as Xi Zedong's promise not to militarize the South China Sea
Bloomberg reports the threat of a crackdown on June 4 vigil participants, here.
Xi Jinping broke his promise in the South China Sea, and will break the one to Hong Kong as well. It's just a matter of time.
Grand Rapids, Michigan, Climate Update for May 2018
Grand Rapids, Michigan, Climate Update for May 2018
Max temp 94, Mean Max temp 86
Min temp 40, Mean Min temp 32
Av temp 64.8, Mean Av temp 57.9
Precip 5.64, Mean precip 3.46
Snowfall 0, Mean snowfall .2
Heating Degree Days 105, Mean HDD 252
Cooling Degree Days 108, Mean CDD 39
The cooling season has started off like a rocket, 240% warmer than mean to date based on CDD. With one month left to go in the heating season, the heating season as a result has now been 3.1% warmer than mean to date based on HDD.
Lee Smith says the Democrat narrative that Mifsud was working for the Russians doesn't pass the smell test
Here:
In an official report, Democrats on the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence asserted that “in their approach to Papadopoulos, the Russians used common tradecraft and employed a cut-out,” a “Kremlin-linked…Maltese professor named Joseph Mifsud.” ...
Conversely, if [the FBI] did know Mifsud and thought he was a Russian agent, why did the bureau continue to send agents to teach at Link, with which he had been affiliated for nearly a decade by the time of the Papadopoulos affair?
Both the bureau and the CIA were constant presences at the school; surely they’d run across Mifsud before.
Many others that the FBI worked with knew him — from high-level British intelligence officials to members of the Italian cabinet. If Mifsud was a Kremlin-linked cut-out, why didn’t the FBI warn the U.S.’s European partners, or even U.S. government agencies, about the man who was at the center of Russiagate? ...
So why did the FBI not arrest Mifsud? The State Department declined to comment when RCI emailed to ask why it did not prevent its officials from appearing at an event with a “Kremlin-linked” figure who was key to Russia’s effort to interfere in the 2016 election.
If Mifsud was a Russian spy, it’s unclear why after Papadopoulos’ July 27, 2017 arrest that no U.S. intelligence officials warned their European partners that they were hosting a foreign agent on their territory. ...
When asked if any action was taken to extradite Mifsud or even interview him further in Europe, the office of the special counsel declined to comment on an ongoing investigation.
The office also declined to answer why Mifsud has not been charged. Mueller indicted 13 Russian individuals and three Russian companies for their involvement in a pro-Russian social media campaign during the 2016 campaign cycle. But the “Kremlin-linked” individual that is alleged to have passed the Trump team information about Russia’s interference in the election is at liberty.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)