But as it stands “we have to take the numbers at face value, and they paint a picture of a labor market on fire,” wrote Jefferies economists Aneta Markowska and Thomas Simons, with the Fed likely heading towards “a more sustained tightening cycle and a higher terminal rate.”
Full-time employment in the US in January was 49.3% of civilian noninstitutional population, a far cry from what it could be. The measure could recover to 50.4% pre-pandemic and it still wouldn't be "on fire".
Bouncing back would be a good thing, is fully expected, and could be actually happening, but confusing it with boom levels as Trump did would remain an illusion.
