Laurence Tribe thinks Ted Cruz is ineligible from one perspective, and buries "reputed born in the country" during the founding for a reason

Here in the Boston Globe:

'To his kind of judge, [Ted] Cruz ironically wouldn’t be eligible, because the legal principles that prevailed in the 1780s and ’90s required that someone actually be born on US soil to be a “natural born” citizen. Even having two US parents wouldn’t suffice. And having just an American mother, as Cruz did, would have been insufficient at a time that made patrilineal descent decisive. ... This narrow definition reflected 18th-century fears of a tyrannical takeover of our nation by someone loyal to a foreign power — fears that no longer make sense.'

Oh really? They make more sense now than ever with the diffidently un-American Obama in the Oval, whom the originalist position should also have prevented but didn't precisely because liberal interpreters like Tribe have prevailed by burying truths.

Such as: Children born abroad to US diplomats and soldiers were considered at the time of the American founding "reputed born in the country". For example, Emer de Vattel, paragraphs 216ff., whom the founders used like a textbook:

"... it is not naturally the place of birth that gives rights, but extraction. ... the children born out of the country in the armies of the state, or in the house of its minister at a foreign court, are reputed born in the country."

So it's not just a simple matter of being born on US soil, otherwise every slave child ever born here would have been a natural born citizen, making that whole 14th Amendment thingy kind of beside the point. Tribe is taking only half of the originalist position and using it against Cruz, when there is another half, which should have made Obama ineligible.

Ted Cruz is not a natural born citizen only in part because he was born in Canada without military, diplomatic or some other "official" American cover, but Barack Obama is not a natural born citizen because he was born without citizen cover from both parents. Tribe wants to ignore the latter in the case of Cruz to obscure Obama's ineligibility and argue for the priority of soil against Cruz. It's the way liberals argue, by not telling the whole truth.

But blood was equally important with soil at the founding, and you might say that in the matter of presidential eligibility, the genius of the constitution was singularly expressed in the fusing of jus soli and jus sanguinis in the person elected to embody the executive power in order to protect it, and us.

Presidents should be born in the country, to (married heterosexual) citizens.

But good luck getting that through after what Obama and the Democrats have done to this country. Next stop, a test-tube president whose parents are a Chinese lesbian from Vancouver married to her kitty cat from a pet shelter in Seattle.

Ann Coulter jokes Donald Trump should deport Republican Governor Nikki Haley who stands for open borders

Story here.

Best tweet from Coulter:

"J@s@sF-ingChr@st - even GOP response to Obama's SOTU is a paean to immigrants. And GOP can't figure out why Trump is sweeping the country."

To avoid taking God's name in vain, observant Jews similarly always spell it G-d.

Trump is in first with 36% in new CBS News poll, 17 points ahead of Cruz

None of our early presidents were natural born citizens, but were grandfathered in by Article II

"Publius Huldah", here, correctly making the proper distinction between citizens, and natural born citizens who are eligible to be president:

In § 214, Vattel states that “fundamental law” may withhold from naturalized citizens some of the rights of citizens, such as holding public office. The Constitution is our “fundamental law”; and, following Vattel, Art. II, §1, cl. 5 withholds from naturalized citizens (except for our Founding Generation which was “grandfathered in”) the right to hold the office of President.

Remember! None of our early Presidents were “natural born Citizens”, even though they were all born here. They were all born as subjects of the British Crown. They became naturalized citizens with the Declaration of Independence. That is why it was necessary to provide a grandfather clause for them ["or a Citizen of the United States, at the time of the Adoption of this Constitution"]. But after our Founding Generation was gone, their successors were required to be born as citizens of the United States - not merely born here (as were our Founders), but born as citizens.

And do not forget that the children born here of slaves did not become “citizens” by virtue of being born here. Their parents were slaves; hence (succeeding to the condition of their parents) they were born as slaves. Black people born here did not become citizens until 1868 and the ratification of the 14th Amendment.

So! Do you see? If Our Framers understood that merely being born here were sufficient to confer status as a “natural born citizen”; it would not have been necessary to grandfather in our first generation of Presidents; and all the slaves born here would have been “natural born citizens”. But they were born as non-citizen slaves, because their parents were non-citizen slaves.

Hey Levin you dummy! Citizens by statute are NOT natural born citizens!

If they were, they wouldn't need a statute making them citizens, dummkopf.

Donald Trump is a natural born citizen: His mother became a citizen four years before he was born

The Christian Science Monitor reported here last August:

'The couple had a son, Frederick, in New York City, in 1905. This was Donald Trump’s father. His birth in America, and subsequent automatic US citizenship, disproves rumors that The Donald is himself an “anchor baby” born to noncitizen US immigrants. ... In 1930, Fred Trump met a young Scot in New York on holiday, Mary MacLeod. They married in 1936. Born on the Isle of Lewis, Trump’s mother was proud of her Scottish heritage. Nevertheless, she became a US citizen on March 10, 1942.'

Rush Limbaugh continued his fascination with homosexuality today by making sure to open the show marking the death of David Bowie

He even protested that he never really got into Bowie's music.

So why mention him then?

Rush famously paid Elton John to sing for his (latest) wedding, and uses Klaus Nomi's "You don't own me" for his occasional gay update theme. Nomi was once a backup singer for a Bowie performance.

Latent homosexuality much?

Rush Limbaugh, the big boob on the right, sides with those who say Cruz is a natural born citizen

Just now at the end of the half hour.

The caller who challenged Rush did a good job right up to the end of the call when he mistakenly agreed that Cruz was not a citizen.

Of course, what he meant to say was Cruz was a citizen, just not a natural born citizen, and Rush jumped all over the guy and bulled his way through to maintain his position against the caller's.

Too bad, because the caller was right and Rush was . . . 

Some perverts are more equal than others

Trump rises to new high 34% in IBD poll, +16 ahead of Cruz

Congress corrected itself in 1795 dropping "natural born citizens" of children born abroad to citizens

"And the children of citizens of the United States that may be born beyond Sea, or out of the limits of the United States, shall be considered as natural born Citizens."

-- Naturalization Act of 1790

"[T]he children of citizens of the United States, born out of the limits and jurisdiction of the United States, shall be considered as citizens of the United States."

-- Naturalization Act of 1795

Katyal and Clement are completely disingenuous by ignoring the correction in their discussion last March because they know full well that the Act of 1795 repealed the Act of 1790.

h/t Mario Apuzzo, here:

'The authors cite to the Naturalization Act of 1790 and ignore the fact that the Naturalization Act of 1795, with the lead of then-Rep. James Madison and with the approval of President George Washington, repealed it and specifically changed "shall be considered as natural born citizens" to "shall be considered as citizens of the United States."  This is even more a blatant omission given that they argue that the English naturalization statutes referred to persons born out of the King's dominion to British subject parents as "natural born subjects."  They fail to address this critical change made by our early Congress, critical because Article II, Section 1, Clause 5 provides that a “Citizen” of the United States was eligible to be President only if born before the adoption of the Constitution and that thereafter only a “natural born Citizen” was so eligible.'

How bad could it be if the leader of your country wasn't natural born to it?

Well, he could be a natural born Austrian, for example.

Wow, Ross Douthat joins PEGIDA, calls for Germany to close its borders, deport refugees and kick out Merkel

In The New York Times, here:

". . . [P]rudence requires . . . closing Germany’s borders to new arrivals for the time being. It means beginning an orderly deportation process for able-bodied young men. It means giving up the fond illusion that Germany’s past sins can be absolved with a reckless humanitarianism in the present. It means that Angela Merkel must go — so that her country, and the continent it bestrides, can avoid paying too high a price for her high-minded folly."

Another achievement for Obama, the worst president ever: Worst ever opening week for stocks

Story here:

The Dow Jones Industrial Average careened into the close on Friday, finishing down 169 points, or 1%, at 16346. That left it off about 6.2% for the first five trading days of the new year. That is the worst opening five days in the index’s history, eclipsing the 5.6% drop the index had in 1978.

The S&P 500 is in the same boat. It dropped 21 points, or 1.1%, on Friday, closing at 1922 and down about 6% for the week. That is the worst opening five-day stretch for the index ever, wider than the 5.3% loss in 2008.

FOX News poll kicks off 2016 with Trump ahead of Cruz by 15

Randy Barnett in WaPo completely ignores the distinction between citizens and natural born citizens in Article II

Randy Barnett here.

Instead he gives us another one of those forays into individualism for which libertarians are infamous for their obscurantism. That he had to correct his post to acknowledge state constitutions used "natural born" shows that he has hardly looked into the matter adequately:

'UPDATE: My post erroneously stated that the phrase “natural born citizen” was devised by the framers of the Constitution, when in fact it had been previously used in state constitutions after the founding of the United States.  See, for example, here. Although this does not affect the substance of my point about how the change from “subject” to “citizen” results from a shift from monarchical to popular sovereignty at the founding, I do regret the error (now corrected), which was based on my misrecollection of an article on the subject.'

Obama has been for gun confiscation since his Univ. of Chicago days

So says John R. Lott, Jr. here:

"I don't believe people should be able to own guns," Obama told Lott one day at the University of Chicago Law School. ... "Barack Obama is the most anti-gun president ever.  That claim is based not on my own interactions with him back in the 1990's but on his own public record over many years."

Republican Congress' first bill to reach the president to roll back ObamaCare and defund Planned Parenthood vetoed

From the story here:

The veto was the eighth of Obama’s presidency and the sixth since last year, when Republicans took over both chambers of Congress. ...

“The idea that Obamacare is the law of the land for good is a myth. This law will collapse under its own weight, or it will be repealed,” [Speaker Ryan] said. “We have now shown that there is a clear path to repealing Obamacare without 60 votes in the Senate. So, next year, if we’re sending this bill to a Republican president, it will get signed into law.”

The votes to attempt overriding the president's veto are expected to take place later this month and potentially coincide with the date of the annual March for Life. House Majority Whip Steve Scalise (R-La.) made a motion on the House floor Friday afternoon to postpone action on the veto until Jan. 26.

Mark Levin is behind the 8-ball on "natural born citizen"

Mark Levin tonight doesn't want to entertain if Ted Cruz is ineligible for the presidency because Ted's not a natural born citizen. To Levin the matter was never in question: "it is a settled constitutional and statutory matter." As far as Levin is concerned, Cruz is a natural born citizen.

Like hell.

Levin must consider that his position must mean that Article II is being superfluous when it makes a distinction between natural born citizen and citizen:

"No Person except a natural born Citizen, or a Citizen of the United States, at the time of the Adoption of this Constitution, shall be eligible to the Office of President; neither shall any Person be eligible to that Office who shall not have attained to the Age of thirty five Years, and been fourteen Years a Resident within the United States."

As John Marshall, I believe, said, none of the language of the constitution can be considered superfluous. Or as Newt Gingrich once observed, even the commas carry meaning.

The main phrase is "No Person except a natural born Citizen shall be eligible to the Office of President".

Subordinate to this is the clause "or a Citizen of the United States, at the time of the Adoption of this Constitution". This clause was for the practical reason having to do with the start-up of the new nation. To wit: the founders knew that many of themselves would run for the presidency to guide the young American republic, and would need to, but that none of themselves were "natural born" citizens. They were citizens, as is Ted Cruz, but not "natural born". The language of Article II was specifically designed to permit them to serve as president, but not Ted Cruz or any other not naturally born citizen person for the simple reason that in the case of Ted Cruz he was not a citizen at the time of the constitution's adoption.

The founders adopted the distinction between citizen and natural born citizen because they wanted the future of the country to rest more securely in the hands of leadership which was not divided in its loyalties. The chief loyalty to be wary of at the time was that of Loyalists, those "Americans" who were not in agreement with the break with Great Britain. They were quite numerous, and constituted an ongoing impediment to the success of the revolution. The founders imagined it possible that one of these might secure the presidency, and undo what they with enormous sacrifice had achieved. Hence the language making this less likely, if not impossible. With time, the danger passed, and only individuals born to a pair of citizens could rise to the presidency.

Fast forward to today. The whole argument over citizenship now falsely puts the priority on place of birth when lineage was meant to be paramount. The discussion suffers from amnesia. John McCain was eligible for the presidency in 2008 not because he was born in a US territory but because both his parents were US citizens. That he says otherwise is immaterial. He knows as little about it as the rest. Unfortunately, Barack Obama did not meet the requirement of Article II, but because the priority was falsely placed on his place of origin, a terrible precedent has been set. Frankly, his entire presidency is illegitimate because one of his parents was not a citizen. And after almost seven years in office, he has amply proven that his loyalties lie elsewhere than with the constitution and the American republic as we've known it.

Neither does Ted Cruz meet the requirement of Article II. It is immaterial where he was born. What is material is that one of his parents wasn't a citizen at the time of his birth. He is ineligible to be president, though otherwise well qualified he may be.

Same for Marco Rubio, who was born to Cuban immigrants before they became citizens.

It is assumed that Donald Trump's mother, a Scottish immigrant, was a citizen by the time of Donald's birth in 1946, but maybe The Donald should look into it.

FBI will recommend criminal charges against Hillary et al. to Obama's Justice Dept. before the end of winter

So says R. Emmett Tyrell Jr. here.

The kinder, friendlier boltneck may get another whack at the presidency yet.

Hillary email to Jake Sullivan requested he remove "classified" from document before sending it

From the story by Keith Koffler here:

“This is gigantic,” said [Joseph] diGenova. “She caused to be removed a classified marking and then had it transmitted in an unencrypted manner. That is a felony. The removal of the classified marking is a federal crime. It is the same thing to order someone to do it as if she had done it herself.” On the June 17, 2011, email chain with senior State Department adviser Jake Sullivan, Clinton apparently asked Sullivan to change the marking on classified information so that it is no longer flagged as classified. ... The revelation also appears to put to the lie Clinton’s claim that she never handled classified information on her server.

"Not the face of Islam" strikes again in Philly, attempts to execute cop in his car, liberals call for more gun control instead of Muslim control

John F. Boltneck

From the story here:

"Sources tell Eyewitness News the suspect has given a full confession, saying he did it in the name of Islam."

Kim Jong Unperson of the Year farts H-bombs

Jimmy Kimmel thinks he's Mark Dice, finds Americans to congratulate N. Korea on H-bomb

Here.

Not convincing like Mark Dice, however, who has shown over and over again that street-walking Americans really are, well, brain-dead zombies.

Real Clear Politics' GOP poll average treads water waiting for a new one

The latest as of 1/6/16

As of 1/2/16

Democrats specialize in disarming Americans and giving nukes to our enemies

ASSAULT WEAPONS BAN 1994

EXECUTIVE ORDER LIMITING 2ND AMENDMENT 2016

The only thing Democrats know how to make great

Time to make the Pyongyang Patty Melt for lunch

There's the executive's action, and then there's ours

Despite the hype, the current El Nino hasn't matched 1997-98

AP Obama reports here:

"[I]nitial figures for October-November-December match the same time period in 1997 for the strongest El Nino."

Well, so what?

The current El Nino took 9 consecutive periods to get to a 2.3 in OND whereas the 1997-98 episode took 7 periods. More importantly, the latter averaged 1.6 for the whole series up to that point while the current El Nino is averaging a less strong 1.3 so far.

What really counts is consecutive periods measuring 2.0 or above. There were 5 in 1997-98 but only 2 so far in the current El Nino.

The headline "METEOROLOGISTS: 'DARTH NINO' TIES RECORD FOR STRONGEST SEEN" is total bullshit.

Attorney General Loretta Lynch appears to have gained a lot of weight in the last year

January 2015

January 2016

Donald Trump gets 8,000 after dinner in liberal Massachusetts yesterday, Bill Clinton only 700 in New Hampshire before lunch

USA Today called Bill Clinton's crowd a capacity crowd "of about 700".

WaPo said Trump's venue was "filled to capacity or beyond".

It's cold, it's Monday night, it's just after New Year, and it's in liberal Massachusetts but Trump fills a stadium

Megyn Kelly pretends she would be on the cover of Vanity Fair, and on camera at FOX, if she looked like this

 “But every so often, as all [women] know, you have to stop and slap somebody around a little bit who doesn’t understand that we are actually equals and not second-class citizens.”

Sure Megyn.

Story here. 

Pittsburgh's Salena Zito thinks shouting "Enough" is a right-wing racist mob phenomenon only because Hillary's not good at it

Inciting her own racist mob to little effect

In "Let Us Not Be Consumed by the Mob" under a nice big picture of Donald Trump:

'Every political movement has a tipping point. It goes too far, or it loses its original purpose — or it becomes so self-enamored, under the influence of anger and mob rule, that ugliness shades all the good of its original intent. Such is true of the populism that peaked this summer in America. Years of incompetency and a tin ear at the White House, along with a Republican-controlled Congress accused of not accomplishing much, drove people to figuratively or literally shout, “Enough is enough!” ... With Donald Trump's emergence, and with a chorus of talk-radio hosts suddenly behind him, the mob-rule crowd deems everyone who was ever elected to office (with the exception of Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas) to be a Republican-in-name-only or part of a dark establishment cult intent on crushing the souls of average white voters. ... The mob-rule crowd gnaws on any piece of political red meat thrown out as truth, never checking to see what kind of flesh it just consumed. None of this represents true conservatism. All of it is pure populism, and it is radically contaminating conservatism's values.'

Larry Kudlow eyes Donald Trump's coattails

From the story here:

'Economist and political pundit Larry Kudlow says he is strongly considering challenging Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.) for his Senate seat in 2016. ... Kudlow says he disagrees with Blumenthal on a variety of issues, ranging from the Iran nuclear agreement to the corporate tax rate. “Mr. Blumenthal was wrong on signing the Iran deal. He was wrong on pushing for the U.N. to bring Syrian hostages into the United States,” he said. “And . . . he’s a tax-and-spender. He was in Connecticut, and he’s a tax-and-spender in Washington at a time, frankly, with the economy at two percent [growth] or less, we ought to have a 15 percent corporate tax, not a 40 percent.”'

Kudlow has previously allied himself with Trump without saying so in so many words by coming out against the Iran deal and against letting in the refugee surge, but explicitly has come out in support of Trump's plan to slash the corporate income tax rate to 15 percent. Trump has repeatedly emphasized all three issues mentioned by Kudlow this weekend.

Kudlow clearly sees these as coattail issues on which he could succeed in a Connecticut US Senate run, emphasizing US and Israeli security after a period of increased terrorism as well as a pro-growth supply-side tax policy reminiscent of the era of Ronald Reagan as an answer to the moribund economy's ills.

It works both ways, Larry. Trump as president will need support within the Congress if he hopes to get passed anything he stands for as a candidate.

Tom Rogan on McLaughlin group illustrates how an English accent and three degrees from London can't mask basic ignorance

"Obsession with minutae" at 8:30 and "him in solidarity with I" at 12:50.

Here.

Grand Rapids MI December 2015 temperature anomaly was a staggering +9.9 degrees F

The December 2015 temperature anomaly for Grand Rapids, Michigan, was a staggering +9.9 degrees F, almost twice the size of the November anomaly of +5.4 degrees F.

Heading into December, the cumulative anomaly for 2015 through November stood at -11.7 degrees F, so thanks to El Nino the massive negative anomaly for 2015 is all but wiped out, erasing 92% of the 22.6 degrees of negative temperature anomaly in just four months.

The year 2015 thus finishes with a total anomaly of -1.8 degrees F. That's basically an undetectable .0049315 degrees F below normal on your average day in 2015.

Precipitation in December, unsurprisingly, was 33% above normal while snowfall was just 2.5 inches, 84% below normal. Mean snowfall for December going back to the beginning of the record is 15.7 inches. 

Hillary Clinton admits to one vodka drinking competition

"I haven't been in many of them, but . . .."

Video here.

Yeah, sure.

Arctic sea ice extent at its highest in 10 years while news numbskulls imply the North Pole is melting

THIS IS THE NEWS

THIS IS THE PROPAGANDA

It takes a psycho to know a psycho

Gov. George Pataki ends campaign for president

Who?

The former governor of New York has registered 0.0% in each of the last five major polls in the Real Clear Politics poll average.

Trey Gowdy will accomplish for Marco Rubio what he's accomplished for the House Benghazi Committee

Absolutely nothing.

"Gowdy officially endorses Rubio".

Rasmussen poll finds Clinton and Trump running neck and neck in December as in October

Here.

22% favor other candidates.

Forget the problem with Christians, the problem with Michael Savage is that HE'S too moderate

"I'm a sexual libertarian", he repeats today, after telling Christians they're too moderate yesterday.

Moderation for me, but not for thee. What a J.A.P.

Frankly, the passion for poodles is apropos.

Jeb! Bush, 4.2% in the polls, challenges Donald Trump, 36.5% in the polls, to one-on-one debate

Our problem in the West is that we have too many moderate Christians

Just now, half kidding, but he's right.

Former New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson says it's a shame US and Russia don't get along

Quoted here:

“We’re two super powers – Russia is not as strong as it used to be – but it’s a shame that we’re not getting along, when in the past we had an understanding with each other,” he added. Richardson said the Syrian rebel forces opposing Assad are not ideal alternatives to Assad, but added that "if Russia, the United States, instead of just fighting over Assad, we fight ISIS together with Europe, we may have a chance to bring some kind of stability to the region.”

Former Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Ridge backs a pause on refugees from Syria/Iraq region

Also the former head of DHS, Tom Ridge is quoted here calling for a pause, as originally called for by Donald Trump and later by Rupert Murdoch:

“So, a pause for refugees from that part of the world is very appropriate at this time.”

Freudian slip at TheHill.com: Columnists think Hillary is already the president in story about Clinton fundraising

The boo-boo, "Here are the five biggest challenges facing the president in 2016", was edited out of the full story.

Descended from Piltdown man, news media hoaxsters call Muslim terrorists "Maryland man" and "Pennsylvania man"

Reconstructed skull of the hoax "Piltdown Man"

From WaPo here:

'A second was Mohamed Elshinawy, a Maryland man accused of receiving at least $8,700 from the Islamic State overseas and planning to use the money to carry out attacks in the United States. He told prosecutors that a childhood friend had connected him through social media with an Islamic State operative. ... The third was Jalil Aziz, a Pennsylvania man who was arrested for allegedly providing material support to the Islamic State, by spreading its propaganda on social media and for seeking to help the group’s supporters travel to Syria to fight. Aziz also encouraged other Islamic State supporters he communicated with to use U.S.-based encrypted messaging applications, prosecutors said.'

Mohamed Elshinawy was born in Egypt

Jalil Aziz' country of origin is unknown. No US school has a record of the 19-year old.

Obama ties military's hands with stricter rules of engagement than the law of war requires or even France follows, leaflets the enemy before attacking

From the story here on Christmas Eve:

"We will do everything we can to prevent civilian casualties," said Operation Inherent Resolve spokesman Army Col. Steve Warren on Wednesday. ... Donatella Rovera, senior crisis response adviser at Amnesty International, said the leaflet drops actually started last week, but it has been difficult for people to leave.  ... The Obama administration has come under fire from critics for adhering to restrictive rules of engagement and trying to avoid any civilian casualties in the fight against ISIS. Some say the rules are allowing ISIS fighters to escape.  ... A U.S. defense official said the current U.S. rules of engagement for airstrikes, which are more restrictive than what the law of war requires, would remain the same as Iraqi forces push into Ramadi. Other coalition members — such as France — adhere to looser rules of engagement, however, and it's not clear who will be doing the striking in Ramadi.

The 2015 El Nino to date in perspective

Using the Oceanic Nino Index here the strong to very strong El Ninos of the past can be summarized like this, showing the 2015 El Nino to be so far most like 1972-73:

1957-58, 16 consecutive months, 1.0 average severity

1965-66, 11 consecutive months, 1.2 average severity

1972-73, 12 consecutive months, 1.2 average severity (One 3-month mean reading at 2.0)

1982-83, 15 consecutive months, 1.3 average severity (Three consecutive 3-month mean readings averaging 2.1)

1997-98, 13 consecutive months, 1.6 average severity (Five consecutive 3-month mean readings averaging 2.2)

2015 to date, 8 consecutive months, 1.2 average severity (One 3-month mean reading at 2.0).

At this hour in Grand Rapids we have 38 degrees F and no snow whatsoever.

From one imbecile to another: John McLaughlin in an oversized jacket awards "Person of the Year" to FBI Director James Comey

The jacket John has worn for years for this annual occasion now hangs like a bag on his shrinking frame.

Here.

James Comey testified recently before the US Senate to Lindsey Grahamnesty that he has no idea how weapons purchased over the internet reach their buyers.

And neither does Lindsey.

In 7 years Obama more than doubled a debt it took all other presidents combinded 233 years to pile up

The debt when Obama took office

The debt after 7 years of Obama in office

The debt held by the public is up 116% in just 7 years of Obama, going from $6.3 trillion to $13.6 trillion.

Trump polls less than 30% in only one of the last six major polls, now averages 36.5% in Real Clear Politics average